CIRCLING THE DRAIN — Defense Minister BILL BLAIR sounds more and more frank every time he speaks about problems facing the Canadian Armed Forces. And the picture emerging keeps getting worse. In an armchair sit down with Global News journalist MERCEDES STEPHENSON at the 92nd Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense, he plainly admitted the department has been unable to fix its recruitment woes. — The banger quote: “Over the past three years, more people have left than have entered,” he said. “Frankly, it's a death spiral for the Canadian Armed Forces. We cannot afford to continue at that pace.” Blair called it a “lost” opportunity that fewer than 100 permanent residents applied to join the forces after Ottawa allowed them to do so. “We can’t afford to lose those opportunities.” — Creative solutions: The minister outlined corrective measures he’s asked military leaders to investigate, including expanding eligibility, ditching “outdated” medical requirements and streamlining security clearances. Even on the concerns about Canada being behind on its NATO spending commitments, there was some acknowledgement outside of the usual talking points. “The government's already committed to get to 2 percent,” he said. “It's going to require a significant increase in spending and, quite frankly, I think that we're also constrained a little bit in our ability to make those dollar commitments by the current fiscal environment.” “We know we need to do much more,” he said, but the timeline will be “dictated by the availability in Canada of the funds. He noted Canada has struggled with procurement for decades and hasn’t been at 2 percent since 1996. The real-talk comes in the wake of a set of bleak reports by media, one by CBC’s MURRAY BREWSTER about Canada falling behind on readiness with little more than half our troops ready to be deployed in a crisis, and a similarly scary departmental planning report Playbook outlined earlier this week. And don’t forget those flooding ships. — The right notes: Defense-industry insiders found some solace. Canadian Global Affairs Institute President DAVID PERRY called Blair's points “very strong, well delivered, sometimes quite pointed remarks.” “Hope his colleagues [CHRYSTIA FREELAND] and [JUSTIN TRUDEAU] are listening.” — Diverging scripts: If you only listened to the PM’s soundbites Thursday, you’d walk away thinking NBD. At a Toronto event promoting the government’s new pharmacare policies, Trudeau was quizzed by reporters about Canada’s defensive woes. “Every single year, this government has invested more in defense. We have laid out an ambitious plan of increasing by over 70 percent our defense investments over the years.” — The more things change…: On the long-awaited defense policy update, which will spell out where the investments need to be made, Blair uttered to the Ottawa crowd the dreaded word: “soon.” It’s been coming soon since the last defense minister. — Looming over the room: DONALD TRUMP was namechecked throughout the day, to no surprise given his NATO comments. — Countdown: A North American NATO summit is also scheduled for July in Washington and Ottawa will want to have something to put to its allies while facing criticism. — Ukraine in spotlight: Blair announced C$4.4 million for manufacturers to ramp up production of 155mm munitions, the NATO-standard shells that Ukraine is so hungry for. Reuters’ STEVE SCHERER has details on that. — Duty calls: At the Ottawa defense conference, Ukrainian Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV dropped out of the lineup at the last moment due to developments in the war. Ambassador YULIYA KOVALIV stepped up to fill his speaking spot and talked about the urgent need for more ammo. — Point of contrast: At one point during her talk, she noted Ukraine blew past the NATO 2-percent figure way back in 2015. But for 2022, it jumped to 34 percent. “It's a lesson for everybody. We need to prepare. We need to invest.”
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