| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine NEW TRUMP TRIAL POLLING — POLITICO asked Ipsos to survey Americans about the Manhattan hush-money case, which is generally considered less potentially damaging to former President DONALD TRUMP than his three other criminal cases. Not so, says our new poll. Many voters have indeed made up their mind about the case: 44% say a conviction would have no impact on whether to support Trump or not. But among respondents who say that a conviction in Manhattan would matter, by a more than two-to-one margin, they say it would make them less likely to support Trump. Ankush Khardori has a few other key takeaways from the poll:
- 70% of Americans reject Trump’s claims of presidential immunity.
- About half of the country does not trust the Supreme Court to issue a fair and non-partisan ruling on the question of whether Trump is immune from prosecution.
- 59% of respondents said that Trump should stand trial in the Justice Department’s 2020 election subversion case before Election Day.
And speaking of the hush money case, the new STORMY DANIELS documentary premieres today on Peacock.
|  Top White House officials and House Speaker Mike Johnson are still sparring over border funding. | Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images | BORDER SPENDING BACK ON TRACK? — Yesterday, we broke the news that spending talks had been derailed by a disagreement between top White House officials and Speaker MIKE JOHNSON over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. JEFF ZIENTS and STEVE RICCHETTI told Johnson in a phone call “that what the Republicans are proposing will hurt both border security and the workforce along the border,” according to the White House. This news increased the odds of a shutdown ahead of Friday night’s deadline for the final six spending bills, which together fund some 70% of all federal appropriations. There was a scramble all day Sunday to get things back on track. Here’s where things stand this morning: The White House and Republicans have returned to negotiating a full-year spending bill for Homeland Security — not a continuing resolution. Legislative text is expected later today. The backstory: Unlike the other five appropriations bills in the package, Homeland Security has been mired in controversy. After Trump and congressional Republicans killed the bipartisan Senate border bill, DHS became the obvious vehicle to make immigration policy changes. When the usual politics once again got in the way of writing a full-year bill, both sides last week started to realize the path of least resistance was to put DHS spending on autopilot with a full-year CR keeping 2024 spending levels in place. But that would mean a de facto cut, especially given the challenges on the southern border right now. House Republicans say that under a CR, key agencies dealing with the border would run out of money before the year was up. Senior House GOP aides chided the White House last night for being at odds with congressional Democrats over how to handle DHS spending and only realizing at “the eleventh hour” how bad a CR would be. That’s what led to yesterday’s exchange of CR proposals, which included some increased funding but ultimately led to a stalemate and lots of finger pointing. Out of that disagreement, we’re told, negotiators have abandoned the one-bill CR. “We worked through some issues, and we're on a path forward, which would be a full-year spending bill,” said a person familiar with the talks. Of course, given that we’re dealing with border policy issues, it almost goes without saying that things can always fall apart again. But if the deal materializes today, a shutdown is averted, right? Not so fast. If we get bill text today — and a full-year bill takes longer to draft than a CR — the House’s 72-hour rule kicks in, meaning no House vote until Thursday. (It goes without saying that the House vote will be under suspension of the rules, meaning Johnson will be relying on Democrats to clear the two-thirds vote required.) And even if the House passes the six-bill package on Thursday, that does not give the Senate much time to pass it before midnight Friday when funding for large portions of the government runs out. Avoiding a shutdown would mean notching a 100-senator agreement to speed up procedural votes. In other words, even under a best-case scenario, the Senate’s weekend schedule — and perhaps your NCAA tourney viewing plans — will be in the hands of Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) and friends. Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Who are you eyeing for Cinderella this year? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | A message from the American Bankers Association: Bank leaders from across the country will participate in ABA’s annual Washington Summit this week. Starting Tuesday, the Summit will explore the big issues in banking including the tsunami of regulatory changes threatening banks and their customers. Summit speakers include House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL.). The Points Guy founder Brian Kelly will discuss efforts to defend credit card rewards. View Tuesday’s livestream. | | | VODKA SHOT — “Putin wins Russia election in landslide with no serious competition,” by Reuters’ Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn: “The outcome means [VLADIMIR] PUTIN, 71, is set to embark on a new six-year term that will see him overtake JOSEF STALIN and become Russia's longest-serving leader for more than 200 years if he completes it.” BITTER CHASER — “Some advice for Russia’s newest opposition leader,” by Nahal Toosi: YULIA “NAVALNAYA deserves credit for pursuing the dream of a true post-Putin Russian democracy. But count me among the pessimists on whether she’ll achieve her goal. The ugly truth is that opposition movements fighting dictatorships — especially those forced into exile — have rarely succeeded in the post-Cold War era. The regimes they wish to oust have become more technologically sophisticated, better coordinated and less susceptible to international pressure.” THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Presidential primaries held in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio, as well as House and Senate primaries in Illinois and Ohio. Primary held in CA-20 special election to replace KEVIN McCARTHY. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN participates in the third Summit for Democracy in Seoul. Briefs due from Trump and amici in Supreme Court immunity case. President JOE BIDEN travels to Nevada for events in Reno and Las Vegas. … Wednesday: First day of spring. Fed meets on interest rates. Biden holds campaign events in Phoenix and Dallas. HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA and Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM testify before House Appropriations. SBA Administrator ISABEL GUZMAN testifies before the House and Senate Small Business committees. House Oversight holds hearing on Biden’s “Abuse of Public Office.” … Thursday: Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK and Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN testify before House Appropriations. OMB Director SHALANDA YOUNG testifies before House Budget. Biden holds a campaign event in Houston before returning to Washington. … Friday: Funding for most federal agencies expires at midnight. … Saturday: Presidential primaries held in Louisiana and for Missouri Democrats.
| | | | A message from the American Bankers Association:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. 3 things to watch …
- We may be approaching fish-or-cut-bait time for the tax bill. To catch you up: The bipartisan deal that would pair a child tax credit increase with extensions for key business deductions remains stuck in the Senate. Sen. MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho), the key holdout, traded proposals last week with Senate Finance Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), but as our friends at Morning Tax put it last week, “the vibes aren’t great.” Watch this week to see if Schumer moves closer to scheduling a cloture vote in order to force a climax to this long-running saga.
- House Republicans have declared it “energy week,” and they’ve teed up a suite of bills aimed at boosting fossil fuel production and denouncing Biden administration energy policies. As E&E News’ Kelsey Brugger put it last week, it’s “unlikely any of their efforts will bear much fruit beyond campaign messaging.” But message they shall nonetheless: To kick off the festivities, Playbook has learned that Johnson is in the Texas oil patch today stumping with Rep. AUGUST PFLUGER in Midland.
- It’s that time of year: Appropriations oversight season! Yes, fiscal 2024 bills have yet to be fully passed, but Cabinet secretaries are starting to troop up to the Hill to stump for their fiscal 2025 allotments. Bowing to the holders of the purse strings this week are Becerra, Granholm, Vilsack and Yellen, who will face wide-ranging questioning.
At the White House Biden, first lady JILL BIDEN and VP KAMALA HARRIS will speak at a Women’s History Month reception at 11:30 a.m., with second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF attending. Biden will get the President’s Daily Brief in the afternoon, with Harris attending. Harris will also record two political radio interviews in the afternoon.
| | | | CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So, we have something cool for you: our California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
|  Arthur Laffer is among three leading contenders to be Donald Trump’s Fed chair if he wins the presidential election. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo | 2025 DREAMING — Three leading contenders to be Trump’s Fed chair if he wins the presidential election are KEVIN WARSH, KEVIN HASSETT and ARTHUR LAFFER, WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia and Alex Leary scooped. That’s the shortlist that Trump advisers STEVE MOORE and Laffer presented to him at Mar-a-Lago last week, though the former president didn’t settle on anybody and there’s of course a very long way to go. Trump certainly wouldn’t tap current Fed Chair JEROME POWELL, who was first selected by Trump, for another term. But the recent recommendations arose out of Moore and Laffer’s Committee to Unleash Prosperity with STEVE FORBES, which also discussed — but didn’t unanimously agree on — DAVID MALPASS and JUDY SHELTON. Other outside groups, including the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 and the America First Policy Institute, are likely to come up with their own stables of recommended candidates. More top reads:
- How Trump won: Why did Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ legacy as a culture-war champion fall flat in the GOP primary? From Plant City, Florida, WSJ’s Jimmy Vielkind and Ariel Zambelich find that Republican voters liked what DeSantis had done — but immigration and the economy were more top of mind. And there they gave Trump the edge.
JUDICIARY SQUARE HAPPENING TODAY — “Covid-Era Case on Free Speech to Test Supreme Court,” by WSJ’s Jan Wolfe and Jacob Gershman: “The Supreme Court this week will consider whether the [Biden] administration’s [anti-misinformation] zeal crossed a constitutional line, the latest in a series of cases this year that could set important ground rules for digital free speech and content moderation. … The case, with arguments scheduled for Monday, centers on a 2022 lawsuit led by the Republican attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana, which alleges that the federal government engaged in censorship.” The case, Murthy v. Missouri, “could have a profound impact on the 2024 election, public health, national security — and the degree of freedom Americans have to express themselves online," Josh Gerstein and Rebecca Kern write. “The result could also shape the future of the bully pulpit: the ability of presidents to use their powerful public megaphone in the digital age.” CONGRESS
|  House China select committee Chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) is retiring after this Congress. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — Passing the bill that could lead to banning TikTok was a signature accomplishment for the House China select committee, a year after it was created. But the panel’s future in Congress more broadly remains very much in doubt, Gavin Bade, Ari Hawkins and Meredith Lee Hill report this morning. Even members of the committee disagree over whether the panel should be reauthorized or sunsetted. And it’s an open question whether other major policy recommendations from the committee, including downgrading China’s trade status with the U.S., will make it through the chamber. Some other standing committees have been miffed that the select committee has stolen the spotlight, and Chair MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) is retiring after this Congress. More broadly, the future of the committee could be significantly influenced by a Trump return to the White House — and his economic saber-rattling against China — or by a partisan flip of the House. As America’s teens and adults-who-act-like-teens wait to see what the Senate will do with the TikTok bill, meanwhile, experts tell WaPo’s Drew Harwell and Eva Dou that its ultimatum — force ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a ban — looks pretty one-sided. That’s because a sale in just six months, as the bill lays out, “would be one of the thorniest and most complicated transactions in corporate history.” And if it’s not feasible in half a year, then a ban of the app in the U.S. starts to look much likelier. STATE OF THE STATE OF THE UNION — House Majority Whip TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) told Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke that he thinks Republicans should ax Biden’s State of the Union speech next year if he’s still in the White House.
| | | | A message from the American Bankers Association:   | | | MORE POLITICS SEA CHANGE INCOMING IN NEW JERSEY? — “Attorney General says organization lines are unconstitutional,” by the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein: “Attorney General MATT PLATKIN is preparing to tell a federal judge that New Jersey’s county organization line is unconstitutional, and he is not prepared to defend it in court … His move does not necessarily mean that [ZAHID] QURAISHI will abolish the line system, but it could give the judge plenty of cover if he does. Ending the line comes at a terrible time for TAMMY MURPHY.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sen. PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.) today is endorsing state Sen. EMILY RANDALL in a contested Democratic congressional primary for an open seat. State Public Lands Commissioner HILARY FRANZ has the backing of Rep. DEREK KILMER, who’s vacating the seat, but Randall has landed endorsements from multiple other members of Congress. CATNIP FOR PLAYBOOK READERS — “A new archive of modern American political history,” by Semafor’s Ben Smith: “The Cook Political Report, which has tracked the gritty day-to-day of politics for four decades, will put its entire archive online [today], offering a remarkable and nonpartisan window into modern American political history.” ONE TO WATCH TOMORROW — Ohio Democrats will vote in a primary tomorrow to select their candidate to try to flip a crucial state Supreme Court seat this fall, AP’s Julie Carr Smyth and Christine Fernando preview. The party would have to defend two liberal-leaning incumbents and win the open seat to change the balance of power on the court — no easy feat in red-leaning Ohio. But they’re hoping to lean heavily on abortion rights for an upset. TRUMP CARDS ALL IN THE FAMILY — “Kushner Deal in Serbia Follows Earlier Interest by Trump,” by NYT’s Eric Lipton, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan: “The plan by JARED KUSHNER and his business partners to redevelop a prized location in Serbia’s capital, Belgrade, echoes interest from Donald J. Trump a decade ago in pursuing a deal for the site and a similar proposal pushed during his White House term by a top aide [RICHARD GRENELL] now working with Mr. Kushner … “Mr. Kushner said in an interview on Sunday that he had never discussed the Belgrade project with Mr. Trump and was not aware of his father-in-law’s prior interest … [But the link] raises fresh questions about conflicts of interest between their public roles and private wealth.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD MIDDLE EAST FALLOUT — Biden and Irish Taoiseach LEO VARADKAR addressed the Israel-Hamas war yesterday at a St. Patrick’s Day celebration at the White House, both calling for a cease-fire, the Washington Examiner’s Emily Jacobs reports. Varadkar, who leads a country with deep ties to the Palestinian cause, particularly focused on the plight of people facing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. THAT’S ONE WAY TO GET ON A JUNTA’S BAD SIDE — “Niger Termination of U.S. Military Ties Followed Accusation of Iran Uranium Deal,” by WSJ’s Michael Gordon, Gabriele Steinhauser, Laurence Norman and Michael Phillips
WELCOME TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD — “North Korea Fires Ballistic Missiles as Blinken Visits Seoul,” by Bloomberg’s Soo-Hyang Choi and Ryotaro Nakamaru
POLICY CORNER
|  Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel is now coming under official (though preliminary) antitrust scrutiny by DOJ. | Philip Fong/AFP via Getty Images | ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — It’s not just a skeptical White House statement: Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel is now coming under official (though preliminary) antitrust scrutiny by DOJ, Josh Sisco scoops this morning. But unlike the political and industry blowback against foreign ownership, the Justice Department’s concern is much more localized: whether an Alabama plant already co-owned by Nippon would pose an issue because it currently competes with U.S. Steel. The Justice Department hasn’t decided yet whether to launch a full formal review of the matter. But in the end, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. is likely to be the more significant possible hurdle to the takeover; this particular antitrust concern could be remedied pretty easily. More top reads:
MEDIAWATCH JUST POSTED — The Washington Monthly has published the controversial (to some) article recently retracted by Guernica magazine after an internal revolt, including multiple Guernica staff resignations. The piece, by British-Israeli author and translator Joanna Chen, was condemned, in the words of the co-publisher of Guernica, for its “attempts to soften the violence of colonialism and genocide.” Matt Cooper, the Monthly’s executive editor for digital, told Playbook he reached out to Chen because “I was stunned by the overwrought, Maoist denunciations of a piece that, in the best traditions of literary journalism, offered a nuanced and empathetic view of humanity and I thought that instead of being in internet limbo, Joanna Chen’s great piece should have a happy home in the Washington Monthly.” THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “NewsGuard launches suite of AI anti-misinfo tools,” by Semafor’s Max Tani: “A fact-checking outlet is trying to teach artificial intelligence not to unwittingly spread fake pictures, videos, and other hoaxes about Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the leadup to the 2024 election.”
| | | | Easily connect with the right N.Y. State influencers and foster the right relationships to champion your policy priorities. POLITICO Pro. Inside New York. Learn more. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kerry Kennedy and the rest of the Kennedy clan made their presidential loyalties clear. Maura Healey, Kim Driscoll and Jane Swift were DunQueens at a St. Patrick’s Day political breakfast/roast. Joe Biden was moved by “On Eagle’s Wings.” OUT AND ABOUT — Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) hosted a “girls brunch” for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer yesterday at Cafe Milano, with green tablecloths for a St. Patrick’s Day theme. SPOTTED: OMB Director Shalanda Young (who was working the budget over the phone), Shuwanza Goff, Neera Tanden, USTR Katherine Tai, British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Jordanian Ambassador Dina Kawar, EU Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, Lynda Carter, Norah O’Donnell, Christine Brennan, Margaret Brennan, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Kaitlan Collins, Jamie Gangel, Jennifer Griffin, Kasie Hunt, Kristen Holmes, Ruth Marcus, Kathleen Matthews, Missy Owens, Susan Page, Anna Palmer, Lois Romano, Louisa Terrell, Karen Tumulty, Kristen Welker and Judy Woodruff. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Stephanie Schriock, Matt McKenna, Nicco Mele, Emily Cain and Jess McIntosh are launching Copper Sky LLC, a boutique firm providing strategic consulting to organizations and individuals. Initial clients include Third Way, the Democratic Mayors Association, Reproductive Freedom for All and more. Schriock is a former president of EMILY’s List; McKenna is a Bill Clinton and Jon Tester alum; Mele is a former director of Harvard’s Shorenstein Center; Cain is a former Maine state House minority leader and EMILY’s List executive director; and McIntosh is a Hillary Clinton and EMILY’s List alum. MEDIA MOVE — Josh Jamerson is now the deputy politics editor for WSJ’s Washington bureau. He previously was East Coast bureau chief on the national desk. ENGAGED — Sam Spencer, political director for Speaker Mike Johnson, proposed to Courtney Parella, comms director at Congressional Leadership Fund, on Saturday on Longboat Key among family. The couple met working together at the NRCC in February 2021. Pic … Another pic — Ashley Wilson, who works in strategic comms at Catholics for Choice, and Rodney Hildebrand, who works in U.S. government affairs at Covestro, recently got engaged at The Pub and the People, where they had their first date. BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): GAO’s Nathan Varnell HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) … USTR Katherine Tai (5-0) … Reince Priebus … CNN’s Zachary Cohen … Henry Rodgers of The Daily Caller … Stephanie Schriock … Andrew McCabe … Terri McCullough … Gary Coby … Will Ragland … POLITICO’s Nick Niedzwiadek and Alix Beadle-Ryby … David Mark … National Media’s Will Feltus … Katie Denis … Joe Dougherty of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies … Marcus Garza … Fox News’ Jessica Curry and Karrah Kaplan … Katie Hadji of Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-La.) office … Chris Harris of Giffords … Jeffrey Surrell of Shot Point Strategies … Liz Gorman … Calvin Moore … Ashlee (Reid) Morehouse … Bloomberg’s Kate Hunter … Winnie Stachelberg … Karen Knutson of Chevron … Kiki Kalkstein of the Global Health Council … Brad Fitch … Neal McDonald of FlexPoint Media … Errin Haines of The 19th … Jim Mazzarella … Marc Adelman … former Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) … Laura Cunliffe … Spencer Thibodeau of DOE … MSNBC’s Haylie Reichner and Tucker Wilson … Matt Schuck Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | A message from the American Bankers Association: ABA’s Washington Summit brings together more than 1,200 bank leaders for the nation’s premier conversation on banking policy. Join us virtually March 19-20 to learn more about industry efforts to defend against the regulatory tsunami threatening the ability of America’s banks to serve their customers and communities. Summit speakers include ABA President and CEO Rob Nichols, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL). Another panel features former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles, former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams and former CFPB Director Kathleen Kraninger. The Points Guy founder Brian Kelly will share his perspective on legislation that would end popular credit card reward programs. Veteran political strategists Donna Brazile and Mike Murphy will offer their outlook on the fall election. View Tuesday’s livestream. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
