Sitting Week Island

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Mar 18, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today’s edition: 

→ The House is back, but not for long. Welcome to Sitting Week Island.

BRIAN MULRONEY will receive tributes today — and lie in state, starting Tuesday.

→ Keep an eye out for strategic budget leaks. 'Tis the season.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

WORTH NOTING — Your Playbook host has a new profile of CHRYSTIA FREELAND's fight to convince Western allies to seize and transfer Russian assets to fuel Ukraine's rebuild. Tomorrow's Playbook will go deeper on this story.

HOUSE WORK — This could be a stressful week for government staffers who have to dial into daily issues management calls. The House is back for five days before another two-week break, and the opposition has the run of the place for most of three days.

The Liberals' main priority is Bill C-59, which implements parts of the 2023 Fall Economic Statement. They'll introduce a motion to fast-track debate.

Conservatives and New Democrats will force votes on rather delicate subject matter for a Liberal caucus that spins internal division as diversity representative of Canada.

— Supply day No. 1: Monday is the NDP's turn to make some noise about the war in the Middle East. The party's motion makes Conservatives furious. Some Liberals, too.

New Democrats want the following: an immediate cease-fire and the release of all hostages; a halt to arms trade with Israel; "efforts" to stop illegal arms trade, including to Hamas; long-term funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency; prosecution of international law violations in the region; "unimpeded" humanitarian access to Gaza; and a scrapping of any cap on temporary resident visa applications for people fleeing war.

The motion also includes a pair of clauses that serve as a Rorschach test for a Hill divided on what counts as balanced policy.

→ "Ban extremist settlers from Canada, impose sanctions on Israeli officials who incite genocide, and maintain sanctions on Hamas leaders."

→ "Officially recognize the State of Palestine and maintain Canada’s recognition of Israel’s right to exist and to live in peace with its neighbours."

iPolitics counts at least four Liberal MPs who will side with the New Dems: SALMA ZAHID, SAMEER ZUBERI, IQRA KHALID and SHAFQAT ALI. Zahid said a "good number" of Liberal colleagues were on her side.

NATE ERSKINE-SMITH is one of them. "I expect there will be a split," he told EVAN DYER at CBC News. "I think the government position will obviously matter a great deal to my colleagues."

The Sun's BRIAN LILLEY tweeted that Cabinet talked it over on Saturday. The Prime Minister's Office wouldn't confirm or deny the meeting happened.

The vote will go down later today.

— Supply days No. 2 and 3: It's Tax Week in Toryland.

→ The Conservatives never have the votes to pass a motion to scrap the federal price on carbon, but 50-percent-plus-one isn't really the goal. They'll use an opposition day to cause a little bit of mischief.

Tories will try to make life hell for any Liberal MP whose resolve on the carbon tax is weakening. A handful of Team Trudeau's caucus has actually broken ranks. KODY BLOIS, HEATH MACDONALD and BOBBY MORRISSEY voted for a tax exemption on farming activities. KEN MCDONALD voted for a previous Tory effort to scrap the carbon price.

Liberal inboxes are likely jammed with anti-tax correspondence. A vote with the Conservatives would send a strong signal to the party leadership.

PIERRE POILIEVRE also wrote to Speaker GREG FERGUS on Sunday to request an emergency House debate on the matter, citing opposition from several premiers.

→ The CPC also has a motion on the order paper targeting the government's planned 2 percent hike of the alcohol sales tax. The scheduled increase was supposed to hit 4.7 percent before the feds folded to lobbyists who demanded a cap. The Tories mocked Beer Canada for accepting any increase at all.

→ The party has launched a so-called "national campaign" against the April 1 tax increases. POILIEVRE penned a letter that pressured MPs to side with his team. Conservatives launched a pair of ad spots. And, of course, there's the requisite data harvesting petition.

CARBON FIGHT — JUSTIN TRUDEAU's carbon woes reach well beyond the House. On April 1, the price per metric ton of emissions will rise to C$80 from C$65. (Yes, we hear you, Liberals. The rebates for households also increase in lockstep with the levy.)

Among premiers, only B.C.'s DAVID EBY is vocally on the PM's side. Eby called Poilievre's gambit a "baloney factory" on Friday. Manitoba's WAB KINEW has played coy. But every right-leaning preem except Quebec's FRANÇOIS LEGAULT is opposed to the increase. So is the only Liberal in the group. Newfoundland and Labrador's ANDREW FUREY urged the PM to hit pause.

Trudeau's response: "I think Mr. Furey is continuing to bow to political pressure."

What of SUSAN HOLT, the leader of New Brunswick's Liberals, who added her own voice to the chorus? Sure, it's an election year and Holt stands a good chance of winning. Her beef is with Premier BLAINE HIGGS more than Trudeau. But it's all momentum for the anti-taxers.

— Inside the bubble: A former chief of staff in the Trudeau government made the cautious case for a pause last week. STEVIE O'BRIEN, now at McMillan Vantage, said the carbon levy is solid policy — but that's beside the point.

"An increase at this time, in this political climate, would only bring more ire, and fuel the fire against the current government. I still think it's good policy. It's signature policy. But what the government needs to do, and needs to do a lot better, is explain how it works, what it is, and why it's impactful."

Playbook suspects O'Brien is not alone among Liberals on the Hill. But don't expect an eleventh hour policy reversal, at least not yet. The prime minister doubled down last week on the sanctity of the carbon price.

MULRONEY WEEK — The House will pay tribute to the late BRIAN MULRONEY after today's question period. Each speech will remind everybody watching about the power of the passage of time.

Here's how the next six days will unfold, culminating in Saturday's state funeral. Playbook will be following along all week.

— Monday: Tributes in the House, the collegial and somber tone of which will sharply contrast the afternoon debate on the NDP's Israel-Palestine opposition motion.

— Tuesday and Wednesday: Mulroney will lie in state in the Sir John A. Macdonald Building on Wellington Street. The public can view the casket both days: 12:30-6 p.m. on Tuesday, 9 a.m.-1 p.m. on Wednesday. Condolence books will be onsite.

— Thursday and Friday: Mulroney will lie in repose at St. Patrick's Basilica in Montreal. Public viewing will run 12-6 p.m. on Thursday and 10 a.m.-6 p.m. on Friday. Condolence books will also be available.

— Saturday: Mulroney's funeral will take place at Notre-Dame Basilica — the same venue as former PM PIERRE TRUDEAU's state funeral in 2000, where a 28-year-old JUSTIN TRUDEAU delivered a eulogy that caught the nation's attention.

Trudeau has been invited by the Mulroney family to speak on Saturday. He'll be joined by CAROLINE MULRONEY, Mulroney's daughter and Ontario Cabmin; PIERRE KARL PÉLADEAU, the billionaire media magnate; JEAN CHAREST, the former Quebec premier; and JAMES BAKER, the former U.S. secretary of state and chief of staff to RONALD REAGAN.

Oh, and hockey legend WAYNE GRETZKY.

 

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FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA

Naheed Nenshi, former mayor of Calgary, is running to be the next leader of Alberta's NDP.

Naheed Nenshi, former mayor of Calgary, is running to be the next leader of Alberta's NDP. | Todd Korol, The Canadian Press

THE NENSHI EFFECT — A new poll from Pallas Data tested each of the Alberta NDP leadership candidates' popularity against DANIELLE SMITH's United Conservatives.

— The baseline: Pallas measured 49 percent support for Smith's UCP, 41 percent for the NDP headed up by outgoing leader RACHEL NOTLEY, 7 percent undecided, and 3 percent for other parties.

— The bottomline: Pallas Data found that only former Calgary mayor NAHEED NENSHI retains a similar level of support as Notley.

— Who's in the running: Edmonton MLAs JODI CALAHOO STONEHOUSE, SARAH HOFFMAN and RAKHI PANCHOLI; Calgary MLA KATHLEEN GANLEY; Alberta Federation of Labour President GIL MCGOWAN; and Nenshi.

— Key takeaways: The survey says five of the six candidates running to lead the Alberta NDP lose support to other parties — or the undecided column.

Among the non-Nenshi candidates, NDP support against the UCP plummets to the low- to mid-30s. With Nenshi, however, the NDP takes a bite out of undecideds (and "others”) and nets 42 percent of the province-wide vote.

In Calgary, a hypothetical Smith-Notley rematch results in a 3-point lead for the United Conservatives. Replace Notley with Nenshi and the numbers flip in Alberta's largest city.

Nenshi fares less well in Edmonton. But as any Alberta strategist will tell you, the NDP can afford some losses in the NDP-dominated capital city if the tradeoff is more Calgary support.

— The countdown is on: The Alberta NDP picks its next leader on June 22.

— The methodology: The poll was fielded March 12-13, 2024, with a sample size of 868 Alberta residents (margin of error ±3%, 19 times out of 20). Full data will become available at 8 a.m. (6 a.m. in Alberta).

Where the leaders are

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend question period. She'll spend part of her evening at the special committee on the Canada-China relationship. Her hour-long testimony is slated for 8:30 p.m.

DULY NOTED

11 a.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX will be at the House government operations and estimates committee to take questions on Supplementary Estimates (C).

11 a.m. Telecom executives have each opted for a video appearance at the House industry committee.

We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

MEDIA ROOM

— Top of POLITICO this hour by EVA HARTOG: Putin may be the biggest dupe of his fake election landslide.

— The Star's ALTHIA RAJ says the carbon levy will haunt Trudeau whether he raises it or not.

— On "The Decibel" pod this morning: The challenge with preparing for wildfires in B.C.

— POLITICO's MICHAEL KRUSE explores DONALD TRUMP's stand-up comedy on the stump — a shtick with resonance well beyond the punchlines.

— The weekend talker on social media came from BBC News: Canada's Justin Trudeau says he thinks daily about leaving 'crazy job'. The story quoted heavily from an interview with Radio-Canada in which the PM admitted to thinking about leaving office. BBC originally quoted Trudeau as calling his job "super boring" at times. Francophones quickly called out that translation, clarifying the word "plate" in that context means "tough." Flame wars ensued. BBC corrected the story.

— The Business Council's HEATHER SCOFFIELD reflects on a long career in journalism on The Honest Talk Pod.

 

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PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Hydrogen talks to heat up in Hamburg.

From Pro's BEN LEFEBVRE this morning: JOE BIDEN's uneasy energy empire.

In other news for Pro readers:

TikTok bill passage sets up tug-of-war over China Committee’s future.

Some states are fighting to protect voters from doxxing. They're losing.

Trump allies plan to root out climate science at ‘woke’ Pentagon.

Senators accuse US Chamber of ‘lying’ about climate action.

Senior NSA official says government used AI to find Chinese cyber intrusion.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to conservationist and former senator DIANE GRIFFIN.

HBD + 1 to Earnscliffe principal and House procedure wonk SEAN MURPHY.

Also in birthday news: Keurig Dr Pepper Canada's MICHAEL FORIAN celebrated his 30th spin around the sun with a Saturday bash at Montreal's Fairmont Queen Elizabeth. Forian & co. celebrated in the same suite where JOHN LENNON and YOKO ONO once held their bed-in for peace. Party co-hosts were JOHN BAIRD and MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER.

Spotted: Housing Minister SEAN FRASER's latest attempt to hit back at PIERRE POILIEVRE's record, and promises, on housing policy. YouTube views as of Monday morning: 3,159. YT views on Poilievre's "housing hell" vid: 486,967. (Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ narrated a French-language version.)

Liberal MP RACHEL BENDAYAN, recovering from "a serious concussion" that happened at the end of January.

DAN GARDNER, bemoaning the Twitterization of LinkedIn.

Movers and shakers: MATTHEW DON TRAPP starts today as Fertilizer Canada’s director of government relations … ELLIOT HUGHES made the jump from Summa Strategies to healthcare company Novo Nordisk, where he'll head up international government affairs and policy.

Former Tory MP BERNARD TROTTIER has competition for the party's nomination in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. MICHAEL RAS, the CPC candidate in 2021, wants another shot.

SABRINA MADDEAUX has competition for the Tory nomination in Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill. Former MP COSTAS MENEGAKIS, a loser in the 2019 and 2021 elections, is throwing his hat in the race, True North reported.

Media mentions: The Globe's KAREN HOWLETT is retiring after nearly 40 years in journalism. Her colleague, TU THANH HA, was effusive: "The model of the soft-spoken but tough and tireless reporter. Three National Newspaper Awards, five Michener citations."

ON THE HILL

Find House committees here.

Keep track of Senate committees here.

8 a.m. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will kick off its two-day 2024 National Housing Conference at the Westin hotel in Ottawa.

8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada will release new reports including the results of its 2023 national cannabis survey, January figures in building construction investment, and February numbers on industrial product and raw materials price indexes.

10 a.m. Liberal MP LISA HEPFNER will be on hand at the Economic Equity Alliance’s press conference to discuss a new report, co-authored by JUDY REBICK, titled, “Invisible entrepreneurs: The impact of small business policy neglect on self-employed individuals.”

11 a.m. National Council of Canadian Muslims representatives will hold a press conference in West Block to make comments on the NDP’s motion on recognition of the State of Palestine.

11 a.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX will appear at the House operations and estimates committee.

11 a.m. The joint committee for the scrutiny of regulations will hear from witnesses including Canada Industrial Relations Board Chair GINETTE BRAZEAU.

11 a.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee will meet to start its study on the Supreme Court’s Feb. 9 decision that declared Canada’s Indigenous child welfare law (Bill C-92) constitutional.

11 a.m. The House justice committee will meet to take Bill C-332 through clause-by-clause consideration.

11 a.m. The House veterans affairs committee will discuss “committee business.”

3:30 p.m. The House public safety committee will meet to take Bill C-26 through clause-by-clause consideration, with help from department officials from industry and public safety.

3:30 p.m. The House natural resources committee will continue its study on Bill C-49.

3:30 p.m. The House official languages committee will pick up its study on language obligations related to the hiring process for key appointments.

4 p.m. The Senate national security committee will study the current situation in Ukraine and Canada’s military support.

5 p.m. Canada’s Correctional Investigator IVAN ZINGER will be a witness at the Senate human rights’ committee for its study on a report senators released in June 2021.

5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee will study issues related to minority-language health services.

8:30 p.m. Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will take her seat at the special committee on the Canada-China relationship. Meeting starts at 6:30 p.m.

Behind closed doors: The House citizenship and immigration committee will meet; the House human resources committee will review a draft report of its study on the Canada summer jobs wage subsidy program; the House health committee will meet; the House national defense committee will meet to discuss space defense.

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: It was RONA AMBROSE who once said this: “My beer pong game is AMAZING. We had a huge beer-pong tournament at Stornoway. … We set up this huge beer-pong table in the kitchen and there must have been 60 people shoved in there. I kicked BUTT.”

Former interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose plays beer pong at her Stornoway residence in Ottawa.

Rona Ambrose, beer pong specialist during her years as interim Tory leader from 2015 until 2017. | Photo courtesy of JP Veitch

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, MATTHEW CONWAY, CHRIS RANDS, PATRICK DION, JOHN ECKER, DAMIEN O'BRIEN, MATT DELISLE, GORDON RANDALL, JIM CAMPBELL, KEVIN BOSCH, MARC LEBLANC, DOUG RICE, ALYSON FAIR, GARRY KELLER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SARA MAY, NICHOLAS GALL, DAN ALBAS, DARRYL DAMUDE, and MICHEL BOYER.

Today’s question: Name the only Reform Party candidate ever elected east of Manitoba. (Thanks to PAUL THOMAS, director of the Parliamentary Internship Programme, for the question.)

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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