Election Day: 11 races to watch

Presented by Capture Jobs Now: Shia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln
Mar 19, 2024 View in browser
 
Illinois Playbook

By Shia Kapos

Presented by

Capture Jobs Now

Happy Election Day, Illinois. If you haven't already, vote.

TOP TALKER

MOTIVATING FACTOR: Mayor Brandon Johnson isn’t on today’s primary ballot, but the power of the progressive movement that put him in City Hall is looming over the vote and could determine how strong his forces really are in Chicago.

Voter turnout is expected to be low since the presidential match-up was decided last week when President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump clinched enough delegates to win their parties’ presidential nominations.

The wild card: Lower voter turnout generally benefits incumbents, though the energy for and against the Bring Chicago Home referendum could motivate voters, at least in Chicago. “The far left is highly organized, and has the ability and organization to turn its voters out,” veteran Chicago political consultant Becky Carroll told Crain’s Greg Hinz.

Here's what we’re watching:

— The Cook County state’s attorney Democratic primary will determine who likely succeeds Kim Foxx. The winner faces Republican Bob Fioretti in November. Today’s race pits former prosecutor and judge Eileen O'Neill Burke against former prosecutor Clayton Harris III. O’Neill Burke has the backing of moderate Democrats and much of the business community vs. Harris, who's supported by Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and the Chicago Teachers Union. The issue setting them apart is how to prosecute retail theft. Foxx’s policy was to not prosecute as a felony unless the value of the stolen goods exceeded $1,000 — even though state law sets the felony threshold at $300. O’Neill Burke said she would follow the state law, and Harris has said he would continue Foxx’s policy.

— The Bring Chicago Home referendum: If passed, the city would increase the real estate transfer tax for property sales above $1 million. It’s part of Johnson’s campaign promise to tax the wealthy to help those in need. Opponents, especially from the real estate community, say it will hurt property sales and force business owners to transfer the costs to renters. Pluse some worry there’s no plan in place for how the monies will be spent. The Sun-Times’ Fran Spielman has more.

— IL-12: The Trump factor is in full display in this Republican primary. Congressman Mike Bost won a much sought-after endorsement from the former president. But Darren Bailey, a former state lawmaker who ran unsuccessfully for governor, has a strong MAGA base. They’re both conservative Republicans, but Bailey has portrayed himself as being to the right of Bost. Today’s vote will show whether Donald Trump has more sway than MAGA conservatism.

— IL-07: This Illinois Democratic primary has two themes running through it: incumbent Congressman Danny Davis’ age — 82 — and left-wing activism trying to make inroads in the district. Davis, who took office in 1997, says his longevity is an asset. His opponents say it’s time for a change. Davis' challengers are Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who has the support of the Chicago Teachers Union, and left-wing activist Kina Collins, who has twice lost to Davis. Collins has made the Middle East war an issue and has drawn opposition ads by the super PAC funded by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Also in the race: Kouri Marshall and Nikhil Bhatia.

— IL-11: Congressman Bill Foster faces Qasim Rashid, a Pakistani-American attorney and activist who also has made the Israel-Hamas conflict central to his campaign. In the early days of the war, Foster didn't support a cease-fire but has since called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.

— Senate District 20: Millions of dollars have poured into this contest for a seat now held by recently appointed state Sen. Natalie Toro — she’s the state Senate’s first school teacher (as far as folks can remember). Toro teaches kindergarten and is a member of the Chicago Teachers Union, which makes this contest interesting. The CTU is backing one of its organizers, Graciela Guzman. Nipping at their heels is the self-funded Dave Nayak and grassroots candidate Geary Yonker.

— House District 31: The Democratic primary ballot says this race is between veteran state Rep. Mary Flowers and educator Michael Crawford. But it’s Crawford's top supporter, Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch, who’s made his voice heard. Welch has funneled more than $1 million to Crawford’s campaign, making it clear he wants Flowers out. Crawford hasn’t done interviews, but Flowers has. Here’s one with NBC 5’s Mary Ann Ahern.

— House District 36: This west suburban seat opened up when Democratic state Rep. Kelly Burke announced she wouldn’t seek reelection. Instead, Burke is backing Rick Ryan, an attorney. He faces Sonia Anne Khalil, an administrative services coordinator for the City of Markham. Ryan has the party establishment’s support, but the district has a large Middle Eastern population, which could give Khalil an edge.

— Cook County Circuit Court clerk: Incumbent Clerk Iris Martinez faces challenger Mariyana Spryopoulos, a water board commissioner who has the support of Preckwinkle and establishment Dems. Martinez should have the power of incumbency — she’s modernized the office since taking over four years ago and made it easier for people to get information — but she’s also butted heads with Preckwinkle. Now, Martinez describes herself as the underdog, reports ABC 7’s Sarah Schulte.

— Illinois Supreme Court: Justice Joy Cunningham faces 1st District Appellate Justice Jesse Reyes in a race that’s focused in a large part on identity politics. Cunningham is Black, and Reyes is Latino. He says it’s time for the state to have a Latino member on the high court.

— Cook County Board of Review: The commissioner’s race has become high profile because Cook County Assessor Fritz Kaegi is the main funder behind an effort to defeat longtime Commissioner Larry Rogers Jr. Kaegi has started a political fund focused on Larecia Tucker’s campaign. Kaegi and Tucker have questioned Rogers’ ethics — Rogers once hired his brother who went on to work as a tax-appeals attorney. But Rogers questions Kaegi’s ethics, too. The Board of Review decides appeals of decisions made by Kaegie’s office, so his involvement in the race represents a conflict, says Rogers. WBEZ’s Dan Mihalopoulos has the story.

RELATED: Primaries across the country test Trump’s hold on the GOP and show Dems' divide over the Israel-Hamas war, writes POLITICO’s Steven Shepard

If you are Michael Crawford, Playbook would like to hear from you. Email skapos@politico.com

 

A message from Capture Jobs Now:

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will create thousands of new jobs in Illinois while simultaneously decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. CCS is a key tool for rapid decarbonization. Legislation being considered by the General Assembly (HB569 and SB3311) builds on existing stringent requirements mandated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and includes landowner protections and environmental considerations. Illinois must act now to capture these new jobs and advance our clean energy goals!

 
WHERE'S JB

No official public events.

WHERE's BRANDON

No official public events.

Where's Toni

No official public events.

Have a tip, suggestion, birthday, new job or (heaven forbid) a complaint? Email  skapos@politico.com

 

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BUSINESS OF POLITICS

— It's just lunch: Election Day tradition sees dozens of candidates stop by Manny’s Cafeteria & Delicatessen on the near South Side to hobnob with fellow candidates and political operatives. So what a surprise when Clayton Harris III’s campaign announced he’s passing on Manny’s to go to Valois Restaurant in Hyde Park instead. The rumor mill: Maybe it's a dis because Manny’s owners are part of a business group that may have supported his opponent, Eileen O’Neill Burke. Harris’ team says no. They just wanted to talk to regular diners instead of power players. Dan Raskin, a ourth generation owner of the family- run Manny’s, told Playbook: “I don’t take sides.” The day is about “celebrating” the election.

— In local primaries: Chicago will elect committeepeople in all 50 wards, and for the first time, Libertarians will be electing their own committeepeople. They have four Libertarian guaranteed to be elected as they are running unopposed: Justin Tucker (1st), Nico Tsatsoulis (5th), James Humay (36th) and Danny Lewis (38th).

‘History repeats itself, it’s cyclical.’ Hellenic Museum to consider voter suppression, by the Sun-Times’ Neil Steinberg

THE STATEWIDES

Meta is ready to drop news in Illinois if forced to pay local publishers: “The Journalism Preservation Act would require online companies to pay for local content shared on their platforms,” by The Verge’s Wes Davis.

Pritzker’s budget plan leaves out extra money for schools to help migrant students, by Chalkbeat’s Samantha Smylie

Pritzker executive order creates advisory council for affordable sickle cell treatment, by Capitol News’ Dilpreet Raju

— Call the Mounties! Intersect Illinois, the state’s public-private business attraction organization, has launched its Be in Illinois campaign in Canada.

CORRUPTION CHRONICLES

Prosecutors plan to call Ex-Ald. and federal informant Danny Solis as a witness in Michael Madigan corruption trial: It’s a “shift in strategy after they opted against calling him last year to testify against his one-time colleague, the former longtime Ald. Ed Burke,” by WTTW’s Matt Masterson.

 

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CHICAGO

Pritzker signs measure that sets up process for electing Chicago’s school board: “With the governor’s signature, potential candidates can begin circulating petitions March 26 for the November general election,” by the Tribune’s Jeremy Gorner.

Lead in water a threat to two-thirds of young children in Chicago, study says, by the Sun-Times’ Brett Chase reports.

Asian American family advocacy center opens in Chicago, a first for the state, by the Sun-Times’ Kaitlin Washburn

Historic $45M Chicago police misconduct settlement moves forward, by the Tribune’s Jake Sheridan

Grant Park is booked for most of the summer, by the Block Club’s Melody Mercado

COOK COUNTY

Arlington Heights proposes tax deal as Bears turn focus away from racetrack site, by the Daily Herald’s Christopher Placek

TAKING NAMES

— Chicago businessman Chris Kennedy and his wife, Sheila, were among more than a dozen Kennedy family members visiting the White House over the weekend at the invitation of President Joe Biden and in honor of St. Patrick's Day. Missing was Kennedy’s brother, Robert Kennedy Jr., who’s making a run for president as an Independent, via People mag.

— Major Gen. Rich Neely, the adjutant general for Illinois and commander of the Illinois National Guard, will retire from the military in May after 40 years of service, Gov. JB Pritzker announced.

 

JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Reader Digest

We asked for your Election Day traditions:

Michael Dittmar, president of the Village of Elizabeth: “Go to an establishment that has good wifi and hit refresh on about 10 different tabs every 5 seconds to see what the returns are.”

Lissa Druss: “Since my daughter could walk, I would take her with me to the voting booth to help me vote. Now that she’s 18, she’s proudly voting on her own this year!”

Robert Christie: “I try to be the first voter in my precinct every election morning, but now that I’m retired and not getting up as early it might be a harder tradition to keep.”

Adam Gunther: “I pass palm cards at a polling location in the morning, hit Manny’s for lunch if I can swing it and have a beer the second polls close!”

NEXT QUESTION:  Who’s someone you’d like to shadow for the day?

THE NATIONAL TAKE

Biden starts making his affordable housing pitch on the trail, by POLITICO’s Adam Cancryn

Trump’s ‘bloodbath’ tirade contained a warning on Chinese cars. Here are the facts, by POLITICO’s Kathryn A. Wolfe

Trump can’t post $464M bond in New York civil case, lawyers say, by POLITICO’s Erica Orden

WEDDING BELLS

— Kimberly Walz and Michael Madero tied the knot at Petit Lafitte Beach Hotel in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. Walz is a former political candidate who works in government relations at Walgreens. Pic!

ENGAGED

— Christian Ebersol, co-founder and CEO of the Midwest-based regenerative agriculture company 99 Counties, proposed to Jessica Moore, senior director at ServiceTitan and a Netflix alum, in Biscayne Bay National Park on March 1. The couple originally met in San Francisco in 2013, and dated briefly before reconnecting at a mutual friends’ wedding in 2022. Pic ...Another pic

 

A message from Capture Jobs Now:

Illinois has a unique opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while creating thousands of new jobs by passing legislation to bolster carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) across the state. CCS will grow jobs while protecting our environment. In fact, CCS is key for rapid decarbonization. Legislation being considered by the General Assembly (HB569 and SB3311) builds on the existing stringent requirements mandated by the EPA and includes additional protections for landowners and environmental justice considerations. This legislation is the result of collaboration among labor, business, and the agriculture community, recognizing the important role CCS can play in growing the state’s economy. According to a study from the University of Illinois, CCS development and expansion has an employment demand of 14,400 jobs, generating over $3 billion more for the state’s economy. We cannot delay. Illinois must act now to capture these new jobs and advance our clean energy goals!

 
IN MEMORIAM

Long-time Illini administrator and football great Mike Bass has died, via U. of I. News

TRIVIA

MONDAY’s ANSWER: Congrats to Mary Kay Minaghan for correctly answering that Budlong Woods neighborhood in Chicago is named after pickle producer Lyman Arnold Budlong, whose family owned the land between Foster, Bryn Mawr, Western and California avenues. In the 1920, Budlong Pickle Works was considered one of the largest pickle companies in the world.

H/T to Ed Mazure for the question.

TODAY's QUESTION: What life-saving endeavor first got its start in Chicago on March 15, 1937?  Email skapos@politico.com

HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Niles Township Supervisor Bonnie Kahn Ognisanti, former Ald. Proco Joe Moreno, Cardinal Blase Cupich, World Business Chicago Vice Chair Charles Smith, attorney and former congressional candidate Kristine Schanbacher, Northeastern Illinois University Board Chair Jose Rico, PR pro Michelle Mekky and Block Club co-founder and Executive Editor Stephanie Lulay.

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