Five big congressional races we’re watching on Tuesday

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Mar 18, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Madison Fernandez, Lawrence Ukenye and Shia Kapos

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TOP LINE

A heated battle in one of this cycle’s most important Senate races. Incumbents at risk of losing their seats. A special election that will likely decide one of the newest members of Congress.

Those are the dynamics happening in Tuesday’s busy congressional primaries in Ohio and Illinois. Here are five races to keep an eye on tomorrow.

Donald Trump and Bernie Moreno attend a rally.

Former President Donald Trump (left) listens as Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno speaks at a campaign rally on March 16, 2024, in Vandalia, Ohio. | Jeff Dean/AP Photo

— OH-Sen: The final days of the three-way Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has devolved into a messy brawl. Late last week, The Associated Press reported that Bernie Moreno’s company email address was used to create an account on an adult website that sought “young guys to have fun with” in 2008. (POLITICO has not independently verified the reporting. Moreno has forcefully denied creating the account and said a former intern created the account as a prank.) That sparked a barrage of attacks from primary rival Matt Dolan’s allies decrying Moreno as “creepy” and “damaged goods.”

Moreno, who has the backing of former President Donald Trump, called the story a “sick, last-minute attack by desperate people.” Trump has stood strong with his candidate of choice, rallying with Moreno over the weekend. The former president isn’t the only one rooting for Moreno: Prior to the AP story, a super PAC affiliated with Senate Democrats dropped millions on ads boosting Moreno — a sign that they view him as the weakest general election candidate.

But Dolan, a state senator who is running as a more traditional conservative compared to Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, has been gaining traction, recently earning the support of former Sen. Rob Portman and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine. Regardless of the victor, Democrats will surely seize on Republicans’ infighting as the race shifts to the general election.

— OH-06: The winner of tomorrow’s Republican special election primary for this deep-red district is all but certain to prevail in the June special general election. State Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, state Sen. Michael Rulli and Rick Tsai, a chiropractor, are vying to succeed former Rep. Bill Johnson, who retired earlier this year to become a college president. They’ll appear on the ballot twice: once for the special election to finish out the rest of Johnson’s term, and another for the full term starting in 2025.

Stoltzfus and Rulli have led the field in fundraising. On the airwaves, both have touted their conservative credentials and made their allegiance to Trump clear as well. Rulli is getting a boost from Defending Main Street, the super PAC arm of the pragmatic Republican Main Street Partnership, which has put in more than $100,000 to back him.

It’s not the only special election of the night — across the country in CA-20, candidates are competing for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat. If one earns a majority of the vote, they will serve out the term through the end of the year. If not, the top two vote-getters proceed to a runoff in May. State Assemblymember Vince Fong and county sheriff Mike Boudreaux, both Republicans, advanced out of the regularly-scheduled primary for a full term next year earlier this month, and are also competing in the special.

— OH-09: A lot — but not all — of the drama has been sucked out of the GOP primary to face longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. J.R. Majewski, a scandal-ridden repeat candidate who lost to Kaptur in the midterms, bowed out of the race after maneuvering from national Republicans and endorsed state Rep. Derek Merrin, the party-backed candidate. But it’s not a smooth path to the nomination for Merrin.

Former state Rep. Craig Riedel has stuck around, despite national Republicans abandoning him after a clip surfaced of him trashing Trump. Riedel has sought to cast Merrin as a “never Trumper” and has tied him to former state House Speaker Larry Householder, who was convicted of bribery. Merrin has been bolstered by the Congressional Leadership Fund, which has spent more than $700,000 in support of him.

— IL-07: This Illinois Democratic primary has two themes running through it: incumbent Rep. Danny Davis’ age and a left wing activist hoping to capture the moment.

Davis, an 82-year-old who’s known in part for his resonating voice, took office in 1997. He says his longevity is an asset to constituents and points to his position as a ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee.

His opponents say it’s time to step aside for a new generation. Davis faces four challengers, including well-known Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin and activist Kina Collins, who has twice lost to Davis.

Davis has a loyal base and has been endorsed by Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson, both progressives, while Conyears-Ervin has been endorsed by the powerful Chicago Teachers Union. Collins, meanwhile, has built her own network of left-leaning supporters.

The district runs from Chicago’s South Side west through the city’s Loop district and into the western suburbs. Once a predominantly Black district, it’s changed in part because of redistricting and because the Black population has declined. It is still overwhelmingly blue.

— IL-12: The Trump factor will be in full display in this Republican primary. Rep. Mike Bost won a much sought-after endorsement from the former president. But Darren Bailey, a former state lawmaker who ran unsuccessfully for governor, has a strong MAGA base.

Bost and Bailey are both conservative Republicans in the fiercely red downstate district. Trump took 71 percent of the vote in the district in 2020.

Throughout his grassroots campaign, Bailey has portrayed himself as even more conservative than Bost, a Marine Corps veteran who chairs the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs.

The two men are aligned on most every issue — from strengthening immigration rules to opposing abortion and supporting gun rights. But they diverge on last year’s controversial House speaker imbroglio. Bost backed McCarthy for the speakership, while Bailey has aligned with those who wanted McCarthy out.

It’s no surprise that McCarthy stumped for Bost earlier in the campaign, and Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz headlined an event for Bailey. Trump’s endorsement of Bost came at the nudging of House Speaker Mike Johnson, and other incumbent Republicans urged Trump to back Bost.

Happy Monday. Thanks to Shia (skapos@politico.com, @ShiaKapos) for the Illinois insight. Reach us at mfernandez@politico.com/@madfernandez616 and lukenye@politico.com/@Lawrence_Ukenye.

Days until the Illinois and Ohio primaries: 1

Days until the Alabama runoffs: 29

Days until the Pennsylvania primaries: 36

Days until the Indiana primaries: 50

Days until the North Carolina runoffs and Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 57

Days until the Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon primaries: 64

Days until the Texas runoffs: 71

Days until the Republican National Convention: 118

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 154

Days until the 2024 election: 232

 

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Presidential Big Board

NO LOVE LOST  — Former Vice President Mike Pence told Fox News he would not endorse Trump’s reelection bid, our Sam Stein reported. Pence dropped out of the GOP primary in October and has become the most high-profile Republican not to back Trump. A rift emerged between both men after Pence broke with Trump by certifying the 2020 election results after he became “the target of an angry mob” on Jan. 6, 2021, Sam writes. Pence also said during the interview that he would not vote for President Joe Biden.

… Trump has yet to reach out to former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley since she suspended her campaign earlier this month. Art Pope, former chair of the anti-Trump Americans for Prosperity, told our Adam Wren and Meridith McGraw that the former president is “doubling down” on the bad blood that emerged between both candidates during the GOP primary. Pope is sounding the alarm that Trump’s resistance to offering an olive branch to Haley supporters could cost him during his rematch with Biden in November.

THE CASE GOES ON — A judge ruled on Friday that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis will be able to continue prosecuting Trump’s efforts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results, after one of the top members of her team with whom she had a romantic relationship stepped aside on Friday, our Betsy Woodruff Swan and Kyle Cheney reported. Trump and his co-defendants could appeal the ruling as his attorney Steven Sadow said his team will “use all legal options available as we continue to fight to end this case, which should never have been brought in the first place.”

RAKING IT IN — Biden’s campaign hauled in $53 million alongside the DNC and related fundraising committees in February, bolstering his cash advantage over Trump. His reelection operation now has $155 million on hand. The new figures don’t include the $10 million surge in fundraising following his State of the Union address earlier this month. Our Elena Schneider has more.

SPOILER ALERT — Tim Mellon, a major GOP donor, is pouring millions into super PACs affiliated with both Trump and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., playing into Democrats’ concerns that Kennedy could play spoiler by siphoning votes away from Biden, The Wall Street Journal’s Tarini Parti wrote in her profile of this reclusive donor. Mellon has quietly donated more than $80 million to GOP campaigns since 2022 and has taken an interest in candidates pushing for tougher immigration laws.

 

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

PLAY NICE — Speaker Mike Johnson is getting fed up with members of his conference trying to oust each other. Johnson told CNN’s Manu Raju and Melanie Zanona that he’s asked Republicans campaigning against incumbents in primaries to “cool it.” Gaetz, who is leading the charge against Bost and Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales and was the architect behind McCarthy’s ouster, was “unmoved.”

NOT LETTING IT GO — Arizona Republican Kari Lake wants the Supreme Court to revisit a failed lawsuit from her 2022 gubernatorial bid that would ban electronic voting machines, our Zach Montellaro reported. After receiving support for her Senate bid from top Republicans — including the NRSC — Lake is still peddling the election conspiracy theories that could signal an effort to question results if her campaign comes up short again in November.

RESIDUAL RESULTS — Democrat Jennifer Tran, a professor, will take on fellow Democrat Lateefah Simon, a local transit official, in November for outgoing Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee’s seat in CA-12. Lee endorsed Simon.

Races of note we’re still waiting on from Super Tuesday include CA-16 (only Democratic former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo has progressed to the general); CA-29 (only Democratic state legislator Luz Rivas has been called); and CA-45 (it’s unclear which Democrat will face off against Republican Rep. Michelle Steel).

2024 WATCH — Missouri Democrat Ray Hartmann, a journalist, is looking to challenge Republican Rep. Ann Wagner in MO-02, a seat that Trump would have won by around 8 points in 2020.

COURT WATCHIN’ — Republican-nominated Michigan Supreme Court Justice David Viviano announced on Friday he won’t seek reelection this fall, The Detroit News’ Beth LeBlanc reported. The court currently has a 4-3 liberal majority, but the seats of both Viviano and Justice Kyra Harris-Bolden, a Democratic-nominated justice, are up in November.

 

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THE CASH DASH

MAGA-ON-MAGA — Republican Main Street Partnership plans to spend half a million to defeat conservative Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), The New York Times’ Annie Karni reported. The organization is backing MAGA-aligned state Sen. John McGuire, marking a departure from the group’s history of endorsing moderate candidates in hopes of boosting Republicans who aren’t willing to paralyze Congress.

UNITED FOR UKRAINE — Jed Sunden, founder of the Kyiv Post, is launching the American Ukraine PAC to help boost lawmakers who’ve supported Ukraine’s efforts to defend against Russia’s invasion, The Hill’s Filip Tomotija reports. American Ukraine PAC plans to host 20 fundraisers to support candidates in both parties. The group’s efforts come as Republican candidates have run ads touting their opposition to security aid for Ukraine.

VOTING RIGHTS

ON SECOND THOUGHT — The RNC is walking back plans to shift away from its early voting program, Bank Your Vote, The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey reported. Score reached out to the RNC last week and didn’t hear back regarding the future of the program, which some battleground Republicans praised.

PRIVACY CONCERNS — Conservative groups are successfully overturning laws that prevent individuals’ voting records from being publicly available, our Alfred Ng reports. Who people vote for isn’t public, but things like their address and birthdate are. The efforts aim to promote “election transparency” but have left many advocates fearing public data could expose voters to doxxing and other forms of harassment.

 

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AS SEEN ON TV

OH-Sen — Moreno continues to tout his endorsement from Trump.

UT-Sen — Conservative Values for Utah is up with an ad boosting Republican Rep. John Curtis for his plans to slash government spending.

… Conservative Outsider PAC says Republican Brent Hatch will address American “lawlessness” and “weakness at the border.”

WI-Sen — Republican Eric Hovde is up with a spot saying he won’t take money from special-interest groups and vowing to donate his Senate salary to Wisconsin charities.

IL-12 — A spot from Bost ticks through his endorsements, including Trump, National Right to Life, the NRA and the Illinois Farm Bureau.

MI-10 — Michigan Families for Fair Care is attacking Republican Rep. John James for the rising cost of health care.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “The funny thing through all of it was I, I must have reminded him a dozen times that I’m probably not your guy.” — TV host Mike Rowe on Kennedy, who was vetting him as a VP pick.

 

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