Gavin Newsom hits a rough patch

Inside the Golden State political arena
Mar 18, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte

LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER — Join POLITICO March 19 at the Elks Tower in Sacramento for a conversation on prescription drug affordability with Caitlin Berry, of pharmacy benefit management company Prime Therapeutics; Robin Feldman, UCSF law professor; Anthony Wright, executive director of Health Access California; and state Sen. Scott Wiener. How might officials find savings in the drug supply chain ecosystem? Doors open at 8:30 a.m. RSVP here for “Corrective Action: How to Address Prescription Drug Cost.” There are just a few spaces left!

California Gov. Gavin Newsom discusses his proposed state budget for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, during a news conference in Sacramento,Calif., Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

California Gov. Gavin Newsom. | AP

THE BUZZ: NO VICTORY LAP — This isn’t where Gov. Gavin Newsom was expected to be with just two years left in his term.

Newsom had been scheduled to deliver his State of the State address today, but the governor’s office hastily postponed the speech Friday as the fate of his statewide mental health ballot measure remained too close to call.

Proposition 1, the $6.4 billion mental health and housing bond the governor has championed, held a razor-thin lead Sunday evening as ballots continued to be counted — 50.1 to 49.9 percent. While it’s likely to pass by a thin margin, the strikingly close vote has been an embarrassment for Newsom, the face of the campaign.

Prop 1’s limp to the finish line comes amid a series of headwinds for Newsom, who has increasingly focused on his national profile and leaned into the national stakes for Democrats in November as a top surrogate for President Joe Biden.

Newsom’s approval ratings in a key public poll have sagged to their lowest level since 2010, with just 48 percent of likely voters approving of his performance. He faces a looming and massive budget deficit. And Republicans have launched yet another effort to recall him.

The governor has faced some criticism over his national bully pulpit — especially from Republicans, who say he’s focused on his national profile at the expense of governing the state.

Newsom’s allies counter that he has always maintained a robust state agenda, and that he isn’t sweating this moment.

“The governor is working, not handwringing,” said Bob Salladay, Newsom’s senior adviser for communications. “Prop 1 is close but winnable. He's working with the Legislature right now to take a huge bite out of the budget shortfall with early action. He's taking the recall effort seriously but he knows it's another wasteful distraction that will be defeated.”

But it’s hard to overstate the level of disappointment within Newsom’s orbit coming out of the primary election. The governor has made rebuilding the state’s mental-health treatment system and providing housing for homeless Californians one of the signature issues of his administration — and he’s chided past governors for leaving the housing shortage up to cities.

For Newsom, the policy implications of a Prop 1 defeat would be greater than the political fallout.

The ballot measure is central to his plans for confronting California’s most pressing quality-of-life challenge with the twin homelessness and addiction crises — all at a time when the state budget deficit is spiraling and finding more money for his agenda is becoming harder and harder.

Newsom was Prop 1 biggest cheerleader and barnstormed the state in February promoting it, to the point that he lost his voice during the final weekend of campaign. But opposition to the complex measure only grew in the final stretch. A small but significant percentage of primary voters skipped the question entirely — more than 144,000 voters in deep-blue Los Angeles County alone didn’t weigh in on Prop. 1.

“The governor really put himself out there on this in the final weeks. It didn’t have the intended effect,” said Mark Baldassare, a veteran pollster at the Public Policy Institute of California.

PPIC’s poll of likely voters shows Newsom’s approval ratings among Democrats and Republicans are virtually unchanged from a year ago. But the governor has hemorrhaged support among independents. Last month, PPIC found only 41 percent of independent likely voters approved of Newsom, a steep drop from 53 percent approval at the same time last year.

Newsom’s sagging approval rating is also nearly identical to Biden’s level of support in California. As Baldassare noted, voters see the governor and president’s brands as more connected than ever.

GOOD MORNING. Happy Monday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. We hope you’ve recovered from any St. Patrick’s Day festivities.

Now you can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced following the cancellation of his State of the State address. It will be rescheduled, but a date has not been set.

 

DON’T MISS AN IMPORTANT TALK ON ACCESS TO AFFORDABLE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS IN CA: Join POLITICO on March 19 to dive into the challenges of affordable prescription drugs accessibility across the state. While Washington continues to debate legislative action, POLITICO will explore the challenges unique to California, along with the potential pitfalls and solutions the CA Legislature must examine to address prescription drug affordability for its constituents. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
LOS ANGELES

FILE - In this May 20, 2019, photo, state Sen. Maria Elena Durazo, D-Los Angeles, addresses a gathering in Sacramento, Calif. Durazo, D-Los Angeles, introduced a bill to bolster eviction protections for renters and close a loophole in an existing law that allowed landlords to circumvent the state's rent cap. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)

State Sen. María Elena Durazo. | AP

LOOK-AHEAD — Los Angeles has barely finished counting 2024 primary ballots, but a 2026 vacancy already has LA pols positioning. State Sen. María Elena Durazo is seriously exploring a run for the county supervisor seat Hilda Solis will have to vacate, according to multiple people familiar with Durazo’s plans. Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara is also considering a run.

Years ago, Durazo — then an LA labor leader — helped broker a truce to prevent Lara from running for Assembly against John A. Pérez, who would go on to become Assembly speaker. Last year she made a bid to become Senate leader but lost out to Pro Tem Mike McGuire. Speaking of speakers: former Speaker Anthony Rendon demurred on a rumbled-about supervisorial future. “I’m running for treasurer,” he told us. — Jeremy B. White

ON THE HILL

SpaceX's mega rocket Starship cuts through clouds and haze on it's third test flight from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, Thursday, March 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

SpaceX's mega rocket Starship cuts through clouds and haze on it's third test flight from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas last week. | AP

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: FOR ALL MANKIND — Forty-two members of California’s House delegation sent a letter to Newsom on Friday with a cosmic request: Prioritize investing in the space economy.

The letter, led by Democratic Rep. Salud Carbajal alongside Reps. Zoe Lofgren and Ted Lieu, highlighted how other states like Florida and Texas have taken advantage of federal funding for the commercial space industry — and argued California’s state government should be doing more.

“While we continue to advocate for federal funding for California, we cannot compete without bold state leadership and investment,” the group wrote. “If California does not meet the moment and follow suit with other space states, then we will be left behind and lose out on a generational opportunity.”

California’s two Democratic senators, Laphonza Butler and Alex Padilla, signed the letter as well, and the letter had two Republican signatories, Reps. David Valadao and Doug LaMalfa. — Mia McCarthy

 

In celebration of Earth Month, the USC Wrigley Institute for Environment and Sustainability and the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, in collaboration with POLITICO, host “Climate Forward 2024: Climate at the Crossroads” on April 4, 2024 at USC. Top experts from politics, government, media, and academia will discuss climate change issues with a focus on finding practical policy and business solutions as well identifying ways to remove political obstacles to implementing those changes. Register to attend in person or virtually.

 
 
ELECTION UPDATES

Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) on Capitol Hill July 12, 2021.

Rep. Ken Calvert. | Francis Chung/E&E News | Francis Chung/E&E News | Francis Chung/E&E News

GAY VOTES WANTED — GOP Rep. Ken Calvert is touting his recent endorsement from the Log Cabin Republicans as he fights for reelection in a purple district that now includes the LGBTQ haven of Palm Springs. “As conservatives, we believe in the importance of limited government and the protection of personal freedoms for every American, regardless of who they love,” Calvert said in a joint statement with Log Cabin PAC President Charles Moran.

Democrat Will Rollins, a gay man who nearly unseated Calvert in 2022 and will face him again in November, has repeatedly hammered Calvert over his past opposition to LGBTQ rights. Last year, Calvert voted for the Respect for Marriage Act, which erased a defunct law banning federal recognition of gay couples. But, as Rollins’ camp noted, Calvert previously voted against a host of LGBTQ bills, including anti-discrimination and hate crime protections.

ON THE AGENDA

FLOOR SESH — The Assembly and Senate will convene floor sessions at 1 p.m. and 2 p.m., respectively.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY

Matt Baker, the newest member of the California Public Utilities Commission, has arguably one of the toughest jobs in the state: tackling its soaring utility bills.

Read our interview with him in Friday's California Climate.

TOP TALKERS

— Arizona and Nevada only make up 3 percent of the U.S. population. But those presidential battlegrounds could be the most pivotal in November. (Los Angeles Times)

— A band of Irish-born soldiers who defected during the Mexican-American War remain a subject of California lore and legend. Their defection was driven by nativism in the U.S. and intolerance toward Catholics. (Los Angeles Times)

— The surging popularity of pickleball in California isn’t just causing fights over game noise and court locations. There’s also an uptick in injuries. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— A nonprofit representing Indigenous peoples is formally asking the U.S. government to turn over management of a piece of national park land in Marin County to descendants of the Coast Miwok people. (San Francisco Chronicle)

PLAYBOOKERS

Willie Brown birthday

Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown sings alongside members of The Irish Newsboys band during his 90th birthday celebration in North Beach over the weekend. | Courtesy Kevin Fagan

SPOTTED: WILLIE’S IRISH WISH — California political giant and former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown kicked off his 90th birthday festivities over the weekend with a heavy splash of St. Patrick’s Day flair. Brown, whose birthday is Wednesday, celebrated Friday night at Chief Sullivan's, an Irish Pub in North Beach. A large and appropriately rowdy crowd, led by house band The Irish Newsboys, sang to Brown. Video here

The mayor emeritus later grabbed the mic and sang his rendition of “Oh, Danny Boy,” accompanied by SF Chronicle reporter Kevin Fagan on guitar and retired newshound Steve Rubenstein on harmonica. The party drew a host of local VIPs, including Mayor London Breed as well as Irish Consul General Micheál Smith. Happy birthday, Willie! The pipes, the pipes, the pipes…

BIRTHDAYS — Marc Adelman … Kristin Lee … Todd Hames … (was Sunday): Tim Burger Erin Murray ManningJessica Naziri Charlie Olson … (was Saturday): TechNet’s Carl HolshouserAlexandra Stabler … Rabbi Marvin Hier ... Jordana Cutler … (was Friday): David S. Eisenberg ... Robert Rosner David Silverman

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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