| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan | Presented by MDA Space | Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → Mortgage delinquency is on the agenda at today's House finance committee meetup. → GC Strategies digs down, not up, at break week committee grillings. → JUSTIN TRUDEAU headlines a downtown Toronto fundraiser.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | | 
The Canadian Bankers Association counted 5,041,510 mortgages in Canada last December. | AP | FUN WITH NUMBERS — Equifax Canada's most recent report on mortgage and credit card delinquency rates motivated Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois to demand today's meeting of the House finance committee. At first glance, it's no surprise they'd want to make some noise. Equifax is a credit bureau that collects data on Canadians' use of credit. When the company dropped its report on March 5, the headlines came easy. High interest rates have forced up delinquency rates. Canadians 36 and under who do own a home are struggling the most with a punishing combo of mortgage obligations and credit card balances. Then there's the frightening prospect of mortgage renewals for homeowners who locked in rock-bottom rates in the pandemic's early years. They're now staring down substantial increases in monthly payments. As every poll reminds the government, the anxiety isn't theoretical. It's very real. — The scary quote: "Ontario and BC have been particularly affected, with mortgage delinquency rates soaring by 135.2 per cent and 62.2 per cent respectively compared to Q4 2022, surpassing pre-pandemic levels," Equifax reports. — The party line: Conservatives blame JUSTIN TRUDEAU's crew. “Continuous deficit spending by this Liberal government led to high inflation and interest rates,” the MPs wrote in a letter requesting today’s meeting, which was also signed by Bloc MP GABRIEL STE-MARIE. “Mortgages, rents and needed down payments for a house have all doubled after 8 years, compounding the cost-of-living crisis and a Liberal created housing hell.” — A reality check: BEN RABIDOUX, the founder of North Cove Advisors and Edge Realty Analytics, is urging MPs to exercise caution as they mull the Equifax report. "I'm always leery when people use percentage changes off of a very low basis," he says. Translation: Always interrogate the data behind an alarming claim. Rabidoux pointed Playbook to a separate mortgage arrears dataset published by the Canadian Bankers Association a few days before Equifax made a splash. — Let's get into the numbers: The CBA counted 5,041,510 mortgages in Canada last December. The total number in arrears: 9,057, or 0.18 percent. When the pandemic hit in 2020, the mortgage delinquency rate was 0.24 percent. Low interest rates helped push delinquencies to 0.14 percent in June 2022, the lowest mark since at least 1995 (the limit of the CBA's dataset). In Ontario, mortgage delinquency bottomed out at 0.06 percent in 2022. The rate has ticked up to 0.12 percent, higher than the pre-pandemic mark of 0.09 percent. But none of this fusses Rabidoux, who notes delinquency rates are well below historic averages — and still have room to grow before policymakers should sound an alarm. "It's perfectly reasonable that in an interest rate hiking cycle, delinquencies would overshoot the [long-term] average," he tells Playbook. "Probably, mortgage delinquencies are going to triple. That's not a disaster." In other words: MPs, don't overreact. But stay tuned. — Target list: The Tories and Bloc want to hear from Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND, Superintendent of Bankruptcy ELISABETH LANG and Equifax Canada. | | | | A message from MDA Space: MDA SPACE – Same trusted mission partner. New space. Our new name – MDA Space – is a natural identity evolution that honours the past, recognizes the present, and further positions the company to lead in a new era of space innovation. With a 55-year record of firsts and 450+ missions, MDA Space is a trusted space mission partner to the rapidly expanding global space industry, building the space between proven and possible. www.mda.space | | | | | For your radar | | EATEN ALIVE — GC Strategies didn’t do itself many favors this week. The two co-owners of the business — engulfed in a raging political scandal for producing a pandemic-era travel app with astronomical cost overruns amid dubious contracting circumstances — set out to tell sympathetic stories. They wanted to show that they and their families have been the victims of media spin and easy political attacks in made-for-TV grillings, have suffered harassment by the public and that the numbers in the investigations by government watchdogs don’t jive with their view from the ground. — Scoring on an empty net: But the picture that emerged from Thursday’s hearing had real dog-ate-my-homework vibes. Lawmakers smelled blood in the water and were happy to pile on. And boy, did they get the red meat they were after. Co-owner DARREN ANTHONY told MPs his business partner handled everything related to Covid response. ArriveCAN contracting was not his circus and he pleaded ignorance on many questions. That tactic backfired. For starters, he offered up that he thought the AG’s ArriveCAN probe was incorrect. Except that ... — Eyebrow raisers: In an exchange with NDP MP TAYLOR BACHRACH, Anthony admitted he hadn’t read the audit. As evidence, Anthony only pointed to testimony the day prior by his business partner KRISTIAN FIRTH, who said the AG’s figures are wrong and the media has distorted the picture at every turn. Clip and save. “You're not even following the bouncing ball when it comes to these major allegations against your company's business practices,” Bachrach said. “Can you see why that would be a concern?” “Sure,” Anthony replied, in a one-word answer. And he struggled to answer basic questions like, “What is your fiduciary responsibility as an owner of the company?” — Tag-team: CPC MP LARRY BROCK said that like his NDP colleague, he was “completely astonished” by Anthony’s lack of preparation. “Were you living under a rock for the last three years?” Brock asked in one exchange. Clip, share. Fellow Tory MP MICHAEL BARRETT pressed about the app’s data collection. But, despite being in charge of security for the firm, Anthony said he didn't know where user data was stored or if the company hired anyone outside of Canada. Clip, clip, clip. — Related reading: Here’s CBC’s DARREN MAJOR with another rundown on the hearing.
| | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | | HILL MOVES — Conservative MP ED FAST announced Thursday that he will retire from politics whenever the next federal election is called. Fast has been a member of Parliament for 18 years after being first elected to the House of Commons in 2006. “Now that my work as MP is coming to an end, I am strongly encouraging the next generation of conservatives to step forward and seek the Conservative party’s nomination in the soon-to-be-created riding of Abbotsford-South Langley,” the Lower Mainland B.C. MP said in a statement. The federal party, he said, has assured him there is no “preferred” candidate, “as some have suggested.” Whoever does nab the nod is virtually guaranteed to win a seat in Ottawa. Fast previously served as international trade minister in former Conservative Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER’s government. His legacy includes work on the free-trade agreement with Europe, as well as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
| | | | A message from MDA Space:   | | | | | Where the leaders are | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU starts the day in Montreal, where he'll meet with Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT. Trudeau then heads to Toronto, where he'll meet MICHEÁL MARTIN, the Tánaiste of Ireland. The PM also headlines a fundraiser at Toronto's Omni King Edward Hotel. Mississauga-Lakeshore MP CHARLES SOUSA and Winnipeg South MP TERRY DUGUID are co-hosts. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will be in Calgary, where she’ll meet first with representatives from the energy sector, then with reps from the clean electricity sector. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in St. John, New Brunswick. At 7 p.m. local time, he’ll hold a fundraiser with New Brunswick Premier BLAINE HIGGS at the Saint John Trade and Convention Centre. He'll hold a rally in Fredericton on Saturday, and another in Halifax on Sunday. — Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET is in Québec City ahead of his party’s general council meeting that kicks off Saturday. His Friday schedule includes a stop at the Château Laurier to nominate SIMON BÉRUBÉ as the party’s candidate in Québec (incumbent is Cabmin JEAN-YVES DUCLOS, who could face a three-way race with the Bloc and Conservatives). — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Toronto where he’ll join NDP Toronto-Danforth candidate CLARE HACKSEL to speak about the NDP's Protecting Renters Fund. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Halifax, where she'll visit Dalhousie University's Marine & Environmental Law Institute alongside Deputy Leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT. May will also deliver a lecture at the Schulich School of Law. Pedneault will join her for a post-lecture Q&A.
| | | DULY NOTED | | | 10 a.m. (3 p.m. CET) Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will hold a media teleconference on the final day of G7-related meetings in Italy.
| | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | | |  Just a sample of coverage devoted to the altered photo released by Kensington Palace on March 10. | AFP via Getty Images | UP: Adobe's stock price, reportedly — in the wake of royal family photoshop hijinks. DOWN: The auditor general’s office, after it fired a couple of staffers for earning money from government contracts on the side.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — IAN BRODIE's latest dispatch digs into PIERRE POILIEVRE's recent broadside at corporate lobbyists, and offers advice to both Conservatives and CEOs who heard it. — Top of POLITICO this morning: Congress’ TikTok bill faces a massive hurdle. — On "The Big Story" pod today: Can you still trust Google's search results? — MARK CARNEY with the Globe op-ed that, just in case he ever throws his hat in the ring for realzies, doubles as stump speech fodder: "We all deserve affordable homes and a stable climate — and that is achievable." — From The Narwhal: Koch Industries’ US$30M carbon pricing lawsuit against Canada dismissed by international court — POLITICO’s STUART LAU tells us that JENS STOLTENBERG is calling on allies to step up ammunition aid to Ukraine: “The U.S., Canada and Europe have to do more.” — SCOTT PATTERSON of The Wall Street Journal reports: Biden jump-starts electric-vehicle push with massive lithium loan. — “Where are the reviews of government action on Covid-19?” JI YOON HAN asks in a piece for Policy Options. — Former Globe editor WILLIAM THORSELL joined PAUL WELLS on his pod to discuss Ukraine. The conversation begins with the legacy of BRIAN MULRONEY and closes with observations on the sorry state of political debate in Canada.
| | | PROZONE | | Don’t miss our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from ZI-ANN LUM: Trudeau defends press after India blocks CBC story. In other news for Pro readers: — Wildfires used to die down after dark. Drought has changed that. — STEVEN MNUCHIN forming an investor group to buy TikTok. — FDA previews front-of-pack nutrition label moves. — Sierra Club sues Securities and Exchange Commission over climate reporting rule. — As Congress stalls on AI regulation, sweeping California proposal would set a benchmark.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to Loyalist Public Affairs senior director ALEX SPENCE. Greetings also to former Conservative Cabinet minister RONA AMBROSE, Newfoundland and Labrador MP YVONNE JONES, former Conservative MP PHIL MCCOLEMAN (70!) and former B.C. politician DAVID J. MITCHELL (also 7-0!). HBD + 1 to Liberal staffer-turned-consultant LIAM ROCHE and JASON KERR, CAA's managing director of government relations. HBD + 2 to Tory MP ADAM CHAMBERS. On Saturday: Economist and banker MARK CARNEY; former Conservative MP LEONA ALLESLEV; JASON CLARK, national director of climate change advocacy at the Insurance Bureau of Canada. On Sunday: Former Conservative MP MARK ADLER. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: "This Hour Has 22 Minutes," roasting PM Trudeau to the tune of certain “Barbie” smash hit song … Indy MP KEVIN VUONG, playing up the Conservative Party’s appeal and adopting the same divide and distract rhetoric (not that he's sitting in that caucus … yet). Conservative MP MARTY MORANTZ, removing location details for 21 of his rental properties in his updated disclosure summary with the ethics commissioner. NDP MPP JOEL HARDEN, submitting paperwork to run federally for the NDP in Ottawa Centre. h/t CHARLIE SENACK Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and German Vice-Chancellor ROBERT HABECK locking arms and looking into each other's eyes on the sidelines of the first G7 ministerial meeting led by Italy. More Canadian parliamentarians in New York City for the 68th annual Commission on the Status of Women: Sens. ANDREW CARDOZO, ROSEMARY MOODIE and GIGI OSLER (sporting a Madame Premier T-shirt), Liberal MPs PAM DAMOFF and LENA DIAB, Bloc MP ANDRÉANNE LAROUCHE and NDP MP LEAH GAZAN. Domino’s as the pizza pick for Cabmin JEAN-YVES DUCLOS’ meet-and-greet with the University of Waterloo chapter of Young Liberals … Government House Leader STEVEN MACKINNON making time for ping pong during a visit to Gatineau’s Pointe Aux Jeunes. Conservative MP SHANNON STUBBS on a video call with Cenovus Energy CEO ALEX POURBAIX … Tory MP GÉRARD DELTELL checking out the goodies at a new Beiko La Boîte à Beigne location … Conservative MPs JOHN BARLOW and PAT KELLY in Washington, shooting a video with Capitol Hill in the background. DONALD TRUMP, floating billionaire JOHN PAULSON for U.S. Treasury secretary. Media mentions: NANA ABA DUNCAN is undertaking a survey on the experiences of Black journalists and media workers in Canada. Sign up here to participate. Investigative journalist and Hill veteran DEAN BEEBY is the author of the newly published "Murder in Renfrew County." Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .
| | ON THE HILL | | → Find House committees here. → Keep track of Senate committees here. The House and Senate are on a constituency break until Monday. 8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada will release new reports including January figures on wholesale trade and Canada’s international transactions in securities. Another report on the release schedule: “Tracking Canada's Evolving Supply Chain Links and Their Effects—Knowns and unknowns.” 11 a.m. The House finance committee will meet to review a request to launch a study on a recent Equifax report. 12:30 p.m. Human rights organization Justice For All Canada will hold a press conference in West Block to draw attention to a new report titled, “Palestine — Genocide, Apartheid, Occupation.” We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .
| | TRIVIA | | Thursday’s answer: Former Ontario finance minister JANET ECKER delivered her 2003 budget speech at Magna’s automotive training facility. Props to TISHA ASHTON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, GUY SKIPWORTH, DG STRINGER, DAVID VALENTIN, GARY COLLINS, JOHN ECKER, STEPHEN RUSTON, DAVID MCLENNAN, MARCEL MARCOTTE and MATTHEW CONWAY. Friday’s question: Who said, “My beer pong game is AMAZING. We had a huge beer-pong tournament at Stornoway … We set up this huge beer-pong table in the kitchen and there must have been 60 people shoved in there. I kicked BUTT.” Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
