Will there be any Trump trials?

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Mar 15, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

WHAT THEY’RE READING IN MAR-A-LAGO — Ian Ward profiles J.D. VANCE, drawing from a series of lengthy interviews he conducted with the Republican senator from Ohio over the past few months.

One of the many intriguing nuggets that caught our attention is this passage in which Vance is discussing his relationship with PETER THIEL, who helped bankroll his campaign, and explaining when he turns to Thiel for advice:

“I think the Hamas thing — obviously, there are a lot of civilians who have died — but Israel expected to lose more troops going into this, and I think they’ve had a more successful military operation than they expected to. And if I have a big fear for Israel, right now, it’s [about] the same exact dynamic — that they’re going to need to try to fuck something else up, because the psychology impact of Oct. 7 was so, so powerful,” Vance said. “Who did I call to bounce that idea off of? Peter Thiel.”

DEAR MIKE — Breaking this morning: White House counsel EDWARD SISKEL writes to Speaker MIKE JOHNSON mocking the failing GOP impeachment effort. This, we’re told, signals the start of a new offensive against House Republicans on this issue. Read the letter

“I write to you today because it is clear the House Republican impeachment is over,” Siskel writes. He adds that “it is obviously time to move on” and warns him not to “continue to waste time on political stunts like this.”

The four-page letter quotes criticisms of the effort from anonymous GOP aides (“falling apart”), legal experts (“a misuse of power”) and retiring Rep. KEN BUCK (“This place just keeps going downhill”), while also detailing testimony from more than 20 witnesses who the White House says “confirmed” that the president didn’t do anything wrong.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives to speak at his Super Tuesday election night watch party.

To understand why the DA suddenly acquiesced to Donald Trump’s core strategy of kicking the case down the road, you have to go back a few years. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

ANOTHER BIG BREAK FOR TRUMP — The chances that DONALD TRUMP will not face any criminal trials before the November election just went up.

The only Trump trial with a scheduled start date was the New York hush money case, set to begin March 25. Trump recently requested a 90-day delay in the start date. In a stunning filing yesterday that exposed rifts between state and federal prosecutors, Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG conceded that a 30-day delay would be appropriate. Given that both the prosecution and defense now agree on a delay of some kind, the judge in the case is almost certain to grant one.

The backstory … To understand why the DA suddenly acquiesced to Trump’s core strategy of kicking the case down the road, you have to go back a few years. During the Trump administration, federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York considered pursuing a similar case against Trump. But they never went forward partly because they were hung up on one big issue: the credibility of star witness MICHAEL COHEN.

In preparing his defense, Trump wanted access to everything SDNY knew about Cohen and the federal investigation. Bragg requested documents from his federal colleagues a year ago and turned them over to Trump during discovery. Not satisfied, Trump’s lawyers in January subpoenaed SDNY. The feds in New York repeatedly asked for more time to produce the materials, and Trump was more than happy to oblige. Finally, on March 4, with the trial date looming, SDNY officials started handing over 73,000 pages of documents, and they’re not finished: More materials are arriving next week.

The documents … While it’s unclear what exactly is in the new trove, Bragg made two points in his filing yesterday: that (1) the new documents include materials he requested “more than a year ago” that SDNY “previously declined to provide,” and that (2) some of the documents — “approximately 172 pages of witness statements” — are relevant to the case. He conceded a delay is reasonable while both sides sift through the new materials, 31,000 pages of which were delivered on Wednesday and haven’t been fully examined.

There are a number of questions now about this twist in the Manhattan case:

  • What’s in those 172 pages that was concerning enough for Bragg to seek a delay?
  • Why in the world did SDNY drag its feet for a year and spring this document dump on the two parties at the last minute? (Former federal prosecutor ANDREW WEISSMANN called it a “colossal blunder” on MSNBC.)
  • Did MERRICK GARLAND and senior officials at Main Justice know that the prosecutors he oversees in New York were bungling this document request?

Judge JUAN MERCHAN will now have a big decision to make. He has another high-profile trial scheduled for May: the STEVE BANNON border-wall fraud trial. A long delay in the Trump case could derail it for months. Some legal analysts told us last night they think Merchan will squeeze it in, as he’s been aggressive with his scheduling.

Others aren’t so sure. “I think there’s now for the first time a real question about whether this case gets tried before the November election,” ELI HONIG, a former federal prosecutor, said on CNN.

Meanwhile in Florida … The headline out of Fort Pierce yesterday was that U.S. District Judge AILEEN M. CANNON ruled against Trump’s claim that the Espionage Act didn’t apply to the facts of his case. But the bigger picture is that she is still slow-walking the case.

What you need to know about her decision:

  • Cannon has a stack of seven motions to dismiss pending from the Trump team. There are green rooms full of legal experts who will tell you they are mostly frivolous. (Each one was briefed separately in what some see as a dilatory tactic that Cannon has allowed.)
  • She only heard arguments about two of them yesterday and she only issued an opinion on one of them. This is going to take a while.
  • The opinion she did issue was not the final word; she said Trump could raise it again down the road. Why? Some legal analysts we talked to last night suggested she didn’t want JACK SMITH to appeal to the 11th Circuit, which has already slapped her down twice and has the power to remove her from the case.
  • Most importantly, she was silent yesterday on the biggest question in the case: When will the trial start? 

A reminder about Washington … The D.C. case is on hold until the Supreme Court decides the Trump immunity question. The justices don’t seem to be in any rush. They scheduled oral arguments in that case for the last possible day of the term, April 25, suggesting they won’t resolve the issue until late June, right before the court recesses.

Assuming the Supreme Court rejects the immunity claim, as two lower courts already have, U.S. District Judge TANYA CHUTKAN has said the case will then require at least three months before a trial starts. At that point Trump and his lawyers would need to find enough pretrial issues to add just one more month of delay.

Finally, in Georgia … Yesterday Fulton County Judge SCOTT McAFEE told a local TV station he is sticking to his previously announced schedule on ruling whether DA FANI WILLIS should be disqualified from the state election subversion case against Trump and multiple co-defendants.

So today is a big day: McAfee said two weeks ago today that the ruling would be out within two weeks. If Willis is booted from the case, it is unlikely it would be tried before the election.

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your Trump trial predictions: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: KELLYANNE CONWAY — We sat down with the former Trump campaign manager, White House adviser and longtime pollster Wednesday at POLITICO’s Health Care Summit, where we discussed GOP messaging on abortion, the new politics of in vitro fertilization, Trump’s TikTok flip-flop and how all of it relates to the 2024 election. Listen on Spotify, Apple or wherever you get your podcasts

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The House and the Senate are out.

3 things to watch …

  1. Johnson gave his clearest comments yet on how he plans to handle funding for Ukraine and Israel yesterday in a newsy interview with Olivia Beavers at the House GOP retreat in West Virginia: In short, he “suspect[s]” he will move a stand-alone bill or bills under suspension of the rules — thus leaning on Democratic votes to pass it. Though Johnson hedged his words a bit, it will come as a relief to Washington’s Ukraine hawks — and as a new disappointment to the hard-right faction of his conference, whose reaction we will be watching closely into next week.
  2. The fallout from CHUCK SCHUMER’s big speech criticizing the Israeli government continues to play out. Republicans have lined up to blast Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish leader in U.S. history, for essentially meddling in a foreign election. More surprisingly, even some Democrats have kept their distance, as Axios’ Andrew Solender and Stephen Neukam chronicle. Rep. BRAD SCHNEIDER (D-Ill.), for one, said he “respect[s] the Israelis’ right to decide for themselves” about their political leadership. Still, our colleague Alex Ward writes, the Senate majority leader’s speech amounts to “a green light for any Israel critic to say their piece.”
  3. We’re one week from another shutdown deadline, and the border-heavy Homeland Security bill is proving to be the thorniest piece of the six-bill appropriations package leaders are hoping to pass. Things have gotten to the point that the most likely outcome is extending current DHS funding levels with a continuing resolution, Roll Call’s Aidan Quigley reports, while advancing the other five bills in a, um, “CRiminibus.” But Senate Appropriations Vice Chair SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) isn’t throwing in the towel yet, telling Burgess Everett that a full-year bill represents the last, best chance to address the migrant surge.

At the White House

President JOE BIDEN will host Irish Taoiseach LEO VARADKAR for a bilateral meeting at 10:30 a.m. and speak at the Friends of Ireland Luncheon at the Capitol at 12:30 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host Varadkar and MATTHEW BARRETT for breakfast at 8:45 a.m. Harris will lead a roundtable about marijuana reform at 1:25 p.m. with FAT JOE, Kentucky Gov. ANDY BESHEAR and people who’ve been pardoned for marijuana convictions.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS 

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) speaks during a press conference on Capitol Hill March 6, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

House Speaker Mike Johnson got specific about Section 702 yesterday at the House GOP retreat in West Virginia. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

MORE NEWS FROM JOHNSON — In addition to his major comments about Ukraine aid, Johnson also got specific about Section 702, telling Jordain Carney and Olivia that he’ll bring up the contentious spy power reauthorization for a stand-alone vote in April, when the House gets back from Easter recess. The upshot: Neither foreign aid nor Section 702 looks like it’ll get attached to (and potentially bog down) government funding bills. Meanwhile, Sens. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) and MIKE LEE (R-Utah) said they were introducing proposed compromise reforms to Section 702, per Roll Call’s Ryan Tarinelli.

In another big moment at the retreat, Johnson and House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE told Republicans that they have to stop supporting primary challenges to fellow members, Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke reports. One member said Johnson “excoriated” those who undermine their colleagues. That didn’t stop Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), who was far from the retreat in Texas, campaigning alongside BRANDON HERRERA to oust GOP Rep. TONY GONZALES, per Olivia Alafriz.

More top reads:

  • TikTok on the clock: Senate Commerce Chair MARIA CANTWELL (D-Wash.) didn’t entirely rule out the House-passed bill that could force a TikTok sale or ban, per Anthony Adragna.

ALL POLITICS

FILE - Bernie Moreno is acknowledged at a rally with former President Donald Trump at the Delaware County Fairgrounds, on April 23, 2022, in Delaware, Ohio. The three Republicans vying to take on Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown this fall in Ohio's competitive U.S. Senate race, including Moreno, clashed bitterly in their first statewide debate Monday, Jan. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Joe Maiorana, File)

It could be a tossup next week in Ohio between Bernie Moreno, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. | Joe Maiorana, File/AP Photo

BUCKEYE BULLSEYE — In the final days of the Ohio Republican Senate primary, things are getting very negative and expensive — and stoking GOP concerns they could tarnish the eventual nominee against Democratic Sen. SHERROD BROWN, Ally Mutnick and Burgess Everett report from East Lake. While Republicans mostly avoided nasty primaries across the Senate map, Ohio is an exception, and it could be a tossup next week between state Sen. MATT DOLAN, BERNIE MORENO and Secretary of State FRANK LaROSE. Trump’s preference is clear: He’s rallying with Moreno on Saturday, Axios’ Stephen Neukam reports. On the flip side, Democrats are meddling to boost Moreno, seeing him as more beatable.

In an astonishing eleventh-hour report, AP’s Brian Slodysko and Aaron Kessler revealed that in 2008, somebody with access to Moreno’s email account made an Adult Friend Finder account seeking “Men for 1-on-1 sex.” Moreno’s lawyer said a former intern made the account as a prank and that the candidate “had nothing to do” with it; he provided a statement from the intern to that effect. The AP couldn’t independently confirm the account. The Trump campaign stood by Moreno, who has turned sharply against LGBTQ+ rights, in a statement last night.

More top reads:

  • Dream on: Schumer has recently talked with Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) about reversing course and jumping into the West Virginia Senate race as an independent at the last minute, CNN’s Manu Raju reports. Manchin sounds highly unlikely to do it, though he declined to rule it out entirely.
 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives to speak at his Super Tuesday election night watch party.

Donald Trump launched a covert CIA program to try to undermine Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2019. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

GOOD OLD-FASHIONED CIA MEDDLING — In 2019, Trump set in motion a CIA program to try to undermine Chinese President XI JINPING on Chinese social media and in the press, Reuters’ Joel Schectman and Christopher Bing scooped. The agency “used bogus internet identities to spread negative narratives,” especially stoking concerns about corruption in the Chinese Communist Party, “while leaking disparaging intelligence.” The U.S. says the allegations were actually true — and they wanted to make Chinese leaders paranoid and have them chase the rumors; Reuters reports that it’s unclear whether the Biden administration has continued the program, which “came with significant risk of escalating tensions.”

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — There were more positive signs in Hamas’ latest response to a cease-fire/hostage release deal proposal yesterday, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports, offering a bit more hope serious talks could kick off soon. Reuters this morning has details of the offer, which would include the release of “women, children, elderly and ill hostages in return for the release of 700-1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.” Back in the U.S., the Biden administration continued to struggle politically with enraged Muslim and Arab American groups, many of which refused to meet with White House officials in Chicago, Shia Kapos and Adam Cancryn report.

CLIMATE MILESTONE — “U.S. Approves $500 Million for Bahrain Oil Project, Despite Opposition,” by NYT’s Hiroko Tabuchi

THE WHITE HOUSE 

INSIDE 1600 PENN — The latest in WaPo’s series from Tyler Pager on the behind-the-scenes dynamics in Biden’s White House explores his speechwriting and public speaking. Some aides have gotten frustrated with Biden’s speech preparation, which one likens to “the scariest college seminar you could ever attend”; former chief of staff RON KLAIN says Biden should practice more. Pager also talks to MICHAEL SHEEHAN, Biden’s longtime speech coach, about the president’s stutter: “It is still there every once in a while.”

ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — “Biden Opposition to Takeover of U.S. Steel Comes After Months of Lobbying,” by WSJ’s Andrew Duehren and Bob Tita: “Behind the scenes, a company with more bottom-line considerations [Cleveland-Cliffs] is helping orchestrate the populist revolt.”

THE ECONOMY

INFLATION NATION — New economic data yesterday showed that producer prices were higher than expected last month, while the numbers of new unemployment claims were revised downward. Both are indicators that the economy isn’t cooling that fast, and they could give the Fed more incentive to keep interest rates high, per Bloomberg’s Molly Smith.

2024 WATCH

SPOILER ALERT — “Biden allies form new group to coordinate attacks on third-party candidates,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer: “The Clear Choice super PAC is another arm in the unfurling Democratic-aligned machine to tamp down any candidate who could divide the anti-Trump coalition.”

Meanwhile, No Labels rolled out some details of their selection process for fielding a ticket.

WHAT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN WILL LIKE — A Wisconsin focus group with Trump 2016/Biden 2020 voters finds them blaming Trump and Republicans principally for tanking the bipartisan immigration/foreign aid bill, Axios’ Eugene Scott reports. Most of them say they’d vote Biden over Trump, though they still trust Trump more on the border.

WHAT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN WON’T LIKE — A new Emerson/The Hill poll finds Trump up 4 in Pennsylvania (and Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY’s lead over DAVID McCORMICK shrinking).

ON THE ROAD — “Biden campaigns in Saginaw as part of a focus on battleground states,” by The Detroit News’ Grant Schwab … “Vice President Harris makes historic visit to Planned Parenthood in St. Paul,” by the Star Tribune’s Rochelle Olson

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week,” guest-moderated by Laura Barrón-López: Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Jim Sciutto and Scott MacFarlane.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

CNN “State of the Union”: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … Jack Schlossberg. Panel: Alyssa Farah Griffin, Brad Todd, Kate Bedingfield and Faiz Shakir.

ABC “This Week”: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). Panel: Donna Brazile, Sarah Isgur, Rick Klein and Susan Glasser.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Mike Pence … Catherine Russell … Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.).

NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Utah Gov. Spencer Cox … Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs. Panel: David Swerdlick, Kellie Meyer, Tia Mitchell and Matt Continetti.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas). Panel: Emily Compagno, Bob Cusack, Kevin Walling and Morgan Ortagus.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … José Andrés. Panel: Lanhee Chen, Jonathan Martin and Symone Sanders-Townsend.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Hillary Clinton and Lin-Manuel Miranda are hosting a Joe Biden fundraiser on Broadway.

Kristi Noem posted another business endorsement — this time actually in South Dakota.

Ben Hall marked two years since he and colleagues were attacked in Ukraine.

John Fetterman is a fashion trend-setter.

Bill McRaven and Eva Longoria will get $50 million each as they receive the 2024 Bezos Courage and Civility Award.

FRIDAY LISTEN — Ruy Teixeira is launching a new podcast, “The Liberal Patriot with Ruy Teixeira,” with David Leonhardt as the first guest to go deep on the Democratic Party’s problems. Listen here

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Ireland Funds’ black-tie National Gala on Wednesday night at the National Building Museum, which honored Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) and Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and was emceed by Kelly O’Donnell with Tolü Makay as the entertainer: Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Pa.), Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Kevin Mullin (D-Calif.), Evelyn Farkas, Tom Donohue, Tom Quinn, John Collison, Patrick Collison, Bob Dowd, Steve Ricchetti, Joe Kennedy III and U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Elizabeth Frawley Bagley.

The Science Coalition held an event Wednesday night at Beauchert’s Saloon, with Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.) as its special guest, speaking about the importance of federal funding for science research. SPOTTED: Jill Pentimonti, Jesse Poon, Camille Hosman, Julia Rowe, Laura Kolton and Michelle Baker.

— SPOTTED at an NRSC fundraiser and dinner at Charlie Palmer Steak on Wednesday night, hosted by Invariant: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) and Ted Budd (R-N.C.), Jeremy Wilson-Simerman, Sam Tatevosyan, Mitch Relfe, Michael Farr, Jeff Kuckuck, Joyce Meyer, Clarence Tong, Lance Mangum, Katharine Mottley, Allen Souza, Landon Stropko and Amy Swonger.

NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced that Biden is nominating Jennifer Homendy as National Transportation Safety Board chair again, Kelly Adams-Smith as ambassador to Moldova, Jeremey Neitzke as ambassador to Lesotho and Peter Lord as ambassador to Senegal and Guinea-Bissau.

ENGAGED — Justin Oh, member services associate/outreach associate for House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) and co-founder/outgoing House chair for the Congressional Korean American Staff Association, and Jisung Seo, a medical student at Virginia Commonwealth University, got engaged in Harpers Ferry. They met and started dating as undergrads at William & Mary. PicAnother pic

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled former Sen. Hubert Humphrey’s name.

 

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