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By SCOT MARCIEL
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Hello China Watchers! Our U.S. host Phelim Kine is off this week. So please join me in welcoming your guest host for today, Scot Marciel, a former principal deputy assistant secretary for East Asia and the Pacific at the State Department. He also served as a U.S. diplomat in the Philippines and several other Southeast Asian countries. And he is the author of "Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia." Scot's currently a fellow at Stanford University and an adviser at BowerGroupAsia.
Over to you, Scot! — Heidi Vogt, national security editor, POLITICO
THE CHINA-PHILIPPINES-U.S. MARITIME FACE-OFF
SHOWDOWN AT THE SIERRA MADRE: The Sierra Madre, a World War II-vintage vessel slowly rusting on a small shoal some 120 miles off the coast of the Philippines, has become the hottest flashpoint in the contested waters of the South China Sea. The ship and its small Marine garrison are at the center of an increasingly tense faceoff between the Philippines and China — both of which claim sovereignty over the surrounding waters. Those tensions are likely to be front and center in a trilateral summit in Washington next month between President Joe Biden, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
A dispute going back years. Beijing insists much of the South China Sea is Chinese territory, including Second Thomas Shoal where the Sierra Madre sits. To back that claim Beijing began in 2013 to occasionally block resupply missions to the Sierra Madre and has demanded that the Philippines tow the ship away.
Now becoming an ocean of trouble. Over the past year, China has dramatically raised the stakes by deploying more vessels to aggressively and consistently block Philippine resupply missions. The confrontations have become fraught. Earlier this month, Chinese Coast Guard vessels pummeled Philippine ships with water cannons, causing a collision between opposing ships that injured several Filipino sailors. That prompted the State Department to publicly remind China that the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty applies to these contested waters. Beijing has responded by blaming the U.S. for stoking tensions in the region.
U.S.-China cliffhanger. The tensions around the Sierra Madre are more than a territorial dispute between Manila and Beijing. They and other contested areas in the South China Sea are a test of wills that pits the Biden administration's commitment to its Indo-Pacific Strategy, which rallies allies and partners to defend what it calls the "rules-based order," against Chinese leader Xi Jinping's aggression in the region. And if open military conflict breaks out between China and the Philippines, that could suck in the U.S. and its regional allies.
What to expect in April: The April trilateral summit is likely to produce renewed commitments for U.S. and Japanese security cooperation with the Philippines along with language backing Manila's stance, though it won't necessarily result in specific initiatives on Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing is likely to respond by blaming all three countries for raising tensions.
What hasn't worked: The Philippines has an international ruling to point to in backing up its claims – the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea ruled against China's claims in 2016. That was part of a broader U.S.-backed strategy to raise the reputational costs to Beijing for its aggressive behavior, while bolstering Manila's capacity to monitor and patrol its waters. But China rejected the tribunal's decision and instead intensified efforts to assert control over Second Thomas Shoal and other disputed areas.
What Manila is trying now: Under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines has embarked on a strategy of "assertive transparency." That has included inviting journalists to join resupply missions to record aggressive Chinese actions. It also has accelerated implementation of a U.S.-Philippine defense agreement that allows U.S. forces to deploy to several Philippine bases. And the Marcos government has signed security agreements with the European Union, France and India and is pursuing similar deals with Japan, France and Canada.
Heightened danger: Still, Xi's domestic credibility may depend on him sticking to his declaration that China won't accept the arbitration panel's ruling.
"We should be very worried," about the potential for armed conflict, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia and Pacific Security Affairs Wallace "Chip" Gregson said in an interview. "It may not make sense in our way of thinking for Xi Jinping to get more aggressive and more kinetic in the South China Sea and in the East China Sea, but we’re not inside his head and we’re not inside his government, So we don’t know what pressure he’s under or what his logic pattern is."
Now back over to the POLITICO team
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A member of the Chinese Coast Guard watches while Philippine ships conduct a resupply mission to troops stationed in the South China Sea. | Ezra Acayan/Getty Images |
POLITICO TECH PODCAST —A CHINA WATCHER SPECIAL
What's the status of the U.S.-China rivalry for technological dominance in the development and production of semiconductors? Phelim sat down with Chris Miller, associate professor in international history at Tufts' Fletcher school, for an update in today's POLITICO Tech podcast. Miller is the author of "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology" and an acknowledged expert on the global semiconductor industry.
The good news —Biden administration investments via the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act will build the factories to service the "extraordinary demand for the chips that are used in AI," said Miller.
The bad news: Beijing's massive spending in its domestic chip production sector will reduce its reliance on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. "a potentially worrisome sign if you’re a believer in the thesis that the chip ties are going to deter a [cross-Strait] conflict," Miller said. You can tune in Phelim's full conversation with Miller here.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— CHINA COMMITTEE DEM DEFENDS TIKTOK BILL: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, the top Democrat on the House Select Committee on China, defended the bill that would force TikTok's Chinese owners to sell the app at a virtual event hosted by the Atlantic Council on Tuesday, noting that the bill has plenty of precedents.
In particular, Krishnamoorthi pointed to the LGBTQ+ dating app Grindr, popular among gay men, which was at one point purchased by a Chinese company. "When the U.S. government found out that the CCP had access to very sensitive data, personal information, about LGBTQ members of the military, government officials, they required the divestment of the app," Krishnamoorthi observed. "There was no disruption to users. And I think the exact same thing will likely occur with TikTok."
The bill, which passed by a wide bipartisan vote in the House of Representatives, faces an uncertain future in the Senate, where both Democrats and Republicans have voiced concerns about the constitutionality of forcing the sale of the app.
— WASHINGTON BLASTS CHINA EV CHALLENGE: U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is defending the Inflation Reduction Act in the wake of a Chinese challenge at the World Trade Organization to provisions in the Biden administration's marquee climate law that boost the U.S. electric vehicle industry. In a statement, Tai said it is the United States' "contribution to a clean energy future that we are collectively seeking with our allies and partners" and slammed China's "unfair, non-market policies and practices to undermine fair competition and pursue the dominance of the PRC's manufacturers both in the PRC and in global markets." China's Ministry of Commerce is arguing the Inflation Reduction Act has, among other things, "violated WTO rules such as national treatment and most-favored-nation treatment."
— AMERICAN CEOS MEET WITH XI: A number of American business executives met with Xi in Beijing on Wednesday on the heels of the annual Chinese Development Forum. In a private dinner, the Chinese leader urged American companies to invest in China and assured them that the country's economy remains strong.
Among the business leaders in attendance were Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm, Raj Subramaniam of FedEx and Stephen Schwarzman of the Blackstone Group. The meeting comes as China has stepped up its charm offensive to American companies as it looks to retain foreign investment and shake off concerns that its economy remains sluggish in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Other executives, including Apple's Tim Cook, have also made visits to China in recent days.
The meeting has prompted criticism of both China, and the American companies. Posting on X, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is running to be the top Senate Republican, blasted the American executives, saying "Could it be while American investors are bolstering China's economy they are enabling its military modernization posing an even more dangerous threat to the US and our allies?"
— VIETNAMESE FM TALKS BAMBOO DIPLOMACY: During his visit to Washington, Vietnam's Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son emphasized how his country hopes to bridge the geopolitical divides between China and the U.S., at an event at the Brookings Institution on Tuesday.
"We elevated our relationship, not only with the United States, but with China," Son said. "Vietnam is in a particular position that now we can contribute to stabilize the relation between U.S. and China. The future, if that idea can be realized, I think is good."
His comments come as Vietnam and the U.S. deepen their own economic and diplomatic ties in the face of increased Chinese threats in the South China Sea. Last year, Vietnam and the U.S. unveiled a comprehensive strategic partnership, a major milestone for the former foes.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
EU REFUSES TO SIDE WITH US, UK TO DESIGNATE CHINESE HACKERS: European policymakers were unwilling on Wednesday to join the U.S., U.K., and New Zealand in designating Chinese state-sponsored hackers who were involved in what the U.S. Department of Justice alleges to be cyberattacks against more than 60 European lawmakers. Vincent Strubel, the director general of French cybersecurity agency ANSSI, told Antoaneta Roussi that the French government services "do not do public attribution necessarily … I cannot comment on attributions by other countries, even close allies of the U.K. and the U.S."
That's despite French Senator André Gattolin telling Paul de Villepin that ANSSI was involved in cleaning his device after it was hit by Trojan horse malware, a pattern similar to cyberattacks against Belgian lawmaker Samuel Cogolati, who opened an email pretending to be from a media organization.
Lithuania calls for action: The French reservation is not shared by Lithuania, the most hawkish country on China in the EU. "In the face of PRC's malign cyber activities that target democratic institutions and elections, EU & other democracies have to take joint action. Naming those responsible, ensuring accountability and reducing dependencies are needed to strengthen our resilience," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on X.
DUTCH PREMIER RECEIVES WARNING FROM Xi: The Chinese leader Xi reiterated his concern about Dutch-American joint efforts to curb China's semiconductor capabilities during a meeting with outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on Wednesday. "Artificially erecting tech barriers, and severing industries chains and supply chains, would only lead to division and rivalry," Xi told Rutte, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua. "No forces could stop the pace of China's technological development and progress."
Dutch chip giant ASML holds some of the industry's most advanced technologies, which China covets and fails so far to catch up with. Following the Rutte government's decision to impose export controls, ASML estimates a decrease of 10 to 15 per cent in its China sales. Pieter Haeck and Stuart have the story.
TAIWAN'S VP-ELECT MEETS EU LAWMAKERS: Taiwan's incoming Vice President Bi-Khim Hsiao met in Taipei with EU lawmakers from the Green group, led by the outgoing chair of the European Parliament's China delegation, Reinhard Bütikofer. The meeting followed a low-key visit to Brussels by Hsiao, who called on the EU to sign an economic partnership agreement with Taiwan, per Taiwan Today.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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Taiwan Marine Corps personnel maneuver around a missile launching vehicle during a military drill in Kaohsiung. | Annabelle Chih/Getty Images |
— CHINA'S PERU PORT SPAT: A feted Chinese port project in Peru is facing headwinds, after the Peruvian government moved to exit an exclusivity deal with Cosco Shipping, the company tasked with building the megaport, Bloomberg reports. The Peruvian port authority said last week that the company was erroneously granted exclusivity over the services to be offered at the megaport, prompting Cosco to protest. The row has thrown the $3.6 billion dollar project's future in the air months before its scheduled inauguration. Chancay was trumpeted as Latin America's gateway to Asia and seen as a major trade win for China as it seeks to expand its influence in South America.
— MA TO BEIJING: Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is making his second trip to mainland China since leaving office in 2016, in an effort to reduce cross-Strait tensions. Ma is making the 11-day trip with 20 university students and stopping in Guangdong and Shaanxi provinces, as well as Beijing. It is unclear though whether Ma will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jingping, the South China Morning Post reports.
— MILITARY SHOW IN TAIWAN: Meanwhile, Taiwan's military conducted missile drills and unveiled new corvette warships on Tuesday in the face of Chinese military "intrusions" in the self-governing island's airspace. At a ceremony inaugurating the new Taiwanese-manufactured warships, which were completed ahead of schedule, President Tsai Ing-wen said "these achievements repeatedly demonstrate Taiwan’s capacity for domestic shipbuilding and proves our determination to safeguard our democracy and freedom."
HEADLINES
Wall Street Journal: America is sliding toward Chinese-style capitalism
The Intercept: Tech official pushing TikTok ban could reap windfall from U.S.-China Cold War
China Digital Times: "Compass-in-Chief": The 240+ topics Xi Jinping has "pointed the way forward" on
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
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IISS; Oppy Wood, 1917, Evening, 1918, by John Nash, artwork copyright held by the Imperial War Museum |
The Book: Planning for Protraction: A Historically Informed Approach to Great-power War and Sino-U.S. Competition
The Author: Iskander Rehman is the Ax:son Johnson Fellow at the Kissinger Center and senior fellow for strategic studies at the American Foreign Policy Council
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
The key assumptions that have undergirded U.S. force planning and defense doctrine throughout much of the post-Cold War are no longer valid. Notably the notion that technology-fueled advances in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and precision strike will automatically lead to great power wars that are shorter, sharper and more localized. An armed conflict with China would most likely morph into a protracted struggle that would be a grueling war of attrition, spanning multiple theaters.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
How over the course of the centuries short-war thinking has run aground on the jagged shoals of political reality, with states repeatedly underestimating the amount of pain and devastation their determined adversaries could absorb prior to even contemplating surrender.
What lessons might Beijing be taking from Russia's war on Ukraine in terms of its intentions toward Taiwan?
The Ukraine war has demonstrated how a plucky democracy fighting for its existence can impose huge, and asymmetric costs on a great power aggressor. The war also illustrates the historical weaknesses of authoritarian systems—their poor decision-making, tendency to mirror-image, and the debilitating levels of corruption and dysfunction that traditionally gangrene their military apparatuses, often only fully revealed once a conflict is well underway. But the war has cast an unflattering light on how Congressional chaos undermines the nation's ability to engage in unified long-term planning, raising troubling questions over the reliability and credibility of its security guarantees to countries ranging from Estonia to Taiwan.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Eric Bazail-Eimil, Stuart Lau, Pieter Haeck, Paul de Villepin, Antoaneta Roussi, Maggie Miller, Doug Palmer and digital producers Tara Gnewikow, Andrew Goodwin and Fiona Lally. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at pkine@politico.com and slau@politico.eu.
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