What the Ohio Senate race means for the GOP

Mar 19, 2024

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Morning light streams in as a voter fills out their Ohio primary election ballot at a polling location in Knox Presbyterian Church in Cincinnati, Ohio, on March 19, 2024.

Voters fill out their Ohio primary election ballots at a polling location in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Tuesday, March 19. | Carolyn Kaster/AP

THE CATCH-UP

As Ohioans head to the polls today, JMart spends some time in Dublin, where the anti-Trump faction of the GOP may be facing one of its last stands, as MATT DOLAN tries to overcome the MAGA-fueled rise of BERNIE MORENO in the Buckeye State’s Republican Senate primary.

Gov. MIKE DeWINE unexpectedly endorsed Dolan last week, “seeing his chance to temper his party’s drift toward Trumpism” by jumping into the fray. “Beyond the cold mathematical assessment, DeWine said he believes Dolan ‘has the much better chance to beat [incumbent Democratic Sen. SHERROD] BROWN this fall.’

“Further, the governor acknowledged, this was a way to try to reorient the GOP, at least in Ohio where the party has a storied history. ‘Yeah, I mean I’m concerned,’ said DeWine.”

The stakes: “Because of how long the next senator here may serve, this primary is not merely a proxy war between Trump and the GOP old guard,” JMart notes. “The Republican nomination could also determine whether Ohio will return to its isolationist roots and send two senators to Washington who are uneasy about projecting American force abroad.”

For more on the race, read our colleague Ally Mutnick, who has been closely following the contest and has filed another must-read dispatch today from Cincinnati: “Ohio’s Senate primary is a fight between MAGA and the GOP establishment”

And follow along with all of today’s major races with POLITICO’s live results page

SHUTDOWN COUNTDOWN — Despite clinching a deal to provide full-year funding for DHS, negotiators are still staring down a partial government shutdown later this week. Why? Our colleague Anthony Adragna explains:

These things always take time. Negotiators and staff must turn that agreement into legislative text, a process that inevitably takes some time.

The 72-hour-rule: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has promised members at least 72 hours to read and review legislation before a floor vote. Depending on when text eventually emerges, that could carry us into the weekend and a short shutdown. The speaker could try to waive this rule, but that would risk potentially provoking a rebellion from the far-right (who are already out in opposition).

The Senate factor: Assuming the package does eventually pass the House, the rules of the Senate mean that any one senator can slow down consideration. Leaders have been able to reach agreement on prior packages of amendment votes to placate conservatives displeased with the funding bills, but we'll see if one materializes here.

“Could it go faster? Passage of these funding bills may be the last thing standing in the way of both chambers from a scheduled two-week recess. In March Madness terms, Jet Fumes are a No. 1 seed that rarely see an upset.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: MEDIAWATCH — NICK KRISTOF, the longtime NYT columnist, said yesterday that the paper made a major “mistake” by firing former editorial page editor JAMES BENNET, and that there should be more conservative voices in the opinion section, our colleague Daniel Lippman writes in.

“At the individual level, I do think we can be wrong on a lot of things or we can miss important arguments,” Kristof said at the Faith Angle Forum in Florida. He said that if the paper published more conservatives, the Times “would have more credibility as a news organization.”

Bennet’s departure from the paper continues to make occasional waves even though he resigned more than three years ago after publishing a controversial opinion piece by Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.).

Kristof also criticized the selection of letters to the editor that the paper publishes. “If you look at the tone of letters to the editor of The New York Times, people can’t be as nasty to me as I am to other people,” he said. “I think we would be better off if we had really tough more conservative opinion pieces and letters to the editor.”

A Times spokesperson had no comment.

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

President Joe Biden speaks during an event.

Joe Biden's reelection effort is receiving a major boost from outside groups this year. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

1. CASH DASH: Biden’s reelection effort is expected to reach $1 billion this year in spending from outside groups, NYT’s Reid Epstein reports after the League of Conservation Voters announced plans to back Biden today. “The pro-Biden outside money originates from nearly a dozen organizations that include climate groups, labor unions and traditional super PACs. There are left-wing groups like MoveOn and moderate Republicans like Republican Voters Against Trump,” Epstein writes.

“The largest spenders so far are Future Forward, the super PAC blessed by the Biden campaign, which has reserved more than $250 million in television and digital advertising; the Service Employees International Union, which said last week that it would spend $200 million to back Mr. Biden and fellow Democrats; and American Bridge, the Democratic research organization that said in January that it planned to spend $140 million on an anti-Trump advertising campaign in battleground states.”

2. HOW WE GOT HERE: “‘Welcome to the family’: How Donald Trump learned to love the January 6 prisoner movement,” by Semafor’s Shelby Talcott: “That path was smoothed in part by a handful of women — from the high-profile Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE to lesser-known figures like Trump campaign staffer JOANNA MILLER WISCHER and CYNTHIA HUGHES, who founded the Patriot Freedom Project. They made the case to him that at least some of his devoted followers charged in the riot were jailed unjustly, and were being treated poorly.

“Another crucial factor in Trump’s growing support for the cause may have been his own confrontation with American law enforcement, including over charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, which has become a centerpiece of his campaign for president.”

What comes next?: JOSEPH McBRIDE, a lawyer for multiple Jan. 6 defendants and reportedly a frequent communicator of people close to Trump, “told Semafor he’d like the January 6 movement to have a presence at the Republican National Convention this summer.”

3. COMING ATTRACTIONS: “Oversight Committee Democrats invite Giuliani associate Lev Parnas as witness for Biden impeachment hearing,” by CNN’s Annie Grayer: “LEV PARNAS, a Ukrainian-American, worked with Giuliani in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election on behalf of Trump to try and unearth damaging information about then-presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son, HUNTER, in Ukraine. Parnas was sentenced to 20 months in prison in connection with convictions on campaign finance, wire fraud and false statements. House Republicans had embraced the dirt Parnas was peddling but he has since called it out as nonsense.”

On the ground in Albany. Get critical policy news and analysis inside New York State. Track how power brokers are driving change across legislation and budget and impacting lobbying efforts. Learn more.

4. ONE TO WATCH TODAY: “The Fed Is Playing a Waiting Game on Rate Cuts. The Rules Are Starting to Change,” by WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: “For investors, the big question hanging over this week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve is whether it will wait a little longer to cut interest rates because of recent, firm inflation readings. The Fed, though, has a different preoccupation: If it waits too long, will it inadvertently cause a recession? Officials won’t put recession risk front and center this week. Yet that risk is likely to drive its thinking over the remainder of the year, leaving it on track to cut rates at some point.”

5. MONEY FOR NOTHING?: “Governments Across the U.S. Are Handing Residents Cash — No Strings Attached,” by WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia: “Houston is joining dozens of American cities and counties — most led by Democrats — that are experimenting with guaranteed-income programs amid growing wealth inequality in the U.S. The programs are part of a trend at the local and national level toward providing direct, largely unconditional payments to Americans for everything from pandemic relief to child assistance. They reflect a growing sentiment among economists, tech industry leaders and Democrats that distributing money without strings is one of the most effective and least bureaucratic ways to help struggling Americans.”

6. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD: SEC Chair GARY GENSLER is warning that a “growing dependence on artificial intelligence could pose a danger to the U.S. financial system, and regulators need to rethink their siloed approach to rulemaking to minimize the risk,” our colleagues Declan Harty and Steven Overly write. “In an interview on the POLITICO Tech podcast, Gensler described a doomsday scenario in which many of the country’s big financial institutions rely on a small number of AI algorithms to make investment decisions — creating a vulnerability that regulators could miss by focusing on only a sliver of the sector.” Listen to the full interview on POLITICO Tech, available on Apple, Spotify and Simplecast

Related read: “He predicted the ’08 crash. Now he’s betting AI will turbocharge the US economy,” by CNN’s Matt Egan

7. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: “Drone footage raises questions about Israeli justification for deadly strike on Gaza journalists,” by WaPo’s Louisa Loveluck, Imogen Piper, Sarah Cahlan, Hajar Harb and Hazem Balousha: “The Washington Post obtained and reviewed the footage from Thuraya’s drone, which was stored in a memory card recovered at the scene and sent to a production company in Turkey. No Israeli soldiers, aircraft or other military equipment are visible in the footage taken that day — which The Post is publishing in its entirety — raising critical questions about why the journalists were targeted.

“Fellow reporters said they were unaware of troop movements in the area. Interviews with 14 witnesses to the attack and colleagues of the slain reporters offer the most detailed account yet of the deadly incident. The Post found no indications that either man was operating as anything other than a journalist that day.”

Related read: “Israel Faces Tough Balancing Act on Russia and the West,” by NYT’s Steven Erlanger and Adam Sella

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PLAYBOOKERS

Alina Habba is staring down a big legal risk after Donald Trump’s New Jersey golf club settled a harassment lawsuit.

Jair Bolsonaro’s U.S. travel during the pandemic has landed him in some trouble.

Donald Trump is once again hinting he is open to deporting Prince Harry.

MEDIA MOVE — Katherine Bell is joining Bloomberg as executive editor of the digital weekend team. She most recently was editor-in-chief at Goldman Sachs and is a Quartz and Barrons alum.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Timothy White is joining the Biden reelection campaign as Wisconsin press secretary. He previously was assistant press secretary at OMB.

TRANSITIONS — Natalie Parks is now digital director for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. She most recently was digital director for Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.). … Jon Levin is now comms director for the Kentucky Democratic Party. He previously was press secretary/digital director for Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.).

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