Will Trump’s blessing mean gold for Moreno in Ohio?

Mar 19, 2024

With help from Rishika Dugyala, Jesse Naranjo and Teresa Wiltz

Photo illustration shows torn-paper edge on photo of Donald Trump standing behind Bernie Moreno at a campaign rally.

Former President Donald Trump watches Ohio GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno speak at a rally Saturday in Vandalia, Ohio. | POLITICO illustration/Photo by AP

What up, Recast fam! Former President Donald Trump has been rejected by dozens of underwriters and can’t secure a bond for more than $450 million stemming from a civil fraud judgment. Meanwhile, voters in five states hold presidential primaries today, one week after both Trump and President Joe Biden clinched their respective party nominations. First, a look at a hotly contested GOP Senate primary.

Though both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump each cruised to their respective Democratic and Republican nominations last week, there’s plenty of drama left in this primary season.

None is bigger than what’s on offer today in Ohio, where there’s a three-way brawl for the GOP Senate nomination. The winner of this contest will face Sen. Sherrod Brown, one of the most vulnerable Democrats in this election cycle.

The odds-on favorite to win the GOP primary is Bernie Moreno, a Colombia-born car sales tycoon who’s got the Trump blessing. This was evident in a weekend rally in the city of Vandalia, when Moreno appeared on stage with the leader of MAGA world, who showered him with praise.

“We all know this man,” the former commander in chief gushed. “He’s a hero. He’s a winner.”

Moreno ran for the Senate two years ago but bowed out after meeting with Trump, and both agreed there were too many “Trump candidates” in that race. In an otherwise lousy year for Trump-backed candidates, Trump’s bet on venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance paid off big as he sailed to victory over Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).

Now Moreno is hoping Trump still has the Midas touch in Ohio.

This Senate primary is exposing familiar fractures in the GOP. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is backing state Sen. Matt Dolan, the establishment candidate, whose family owns Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Guardians. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, the third man in the race — and the only candidate who has won statewide — is essentially tribeless and is sitting in last place, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, after once enjoying the pole position.

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Speaking at a rally Sunday at the Little Miami Brewing Company in the town of Milford, Moreno shared his views on unifying the Republican Party, which include moving past the old establishment guard and fully embracing the party’s current leader.

“Do you want to go back to the [Mitt] Romney, [George] Bush, [Dick] Cheney, [John] Kasich, DeWine, [Rob] Portman party?” Moreno asked the friendly crowd.

The crowd shouted back a resounding “No!”

Bernie Moreno waves from stage at rally.

Moreno greets the crowd before Trump speaks at the rally Saturday | Jeff Dean/AP

The race, though, remains a tight one, and with no primary runoff in Ohio, the nomination can be secured with a plurality of the vote.

There’s also been a plot twist.

Breaking last week was a report by the Associated Press that Moreno’s company email was used in 2008 to create an account on Adult Friend Finder, an adult website for men seeking casual sex with other men.

POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick reported Friday that within a day of the AP report, a super PAC supporting Dolan dropped an ad referring to Moreno as both “creepy” and “damaged goods.”

Moreno denied creating the account and a former intern has said he created the account as a “prank.”

It’s unclear how that will impact the race. According to the latest Emerson College poll, roughly 1 in 5 likely Republican voters remain undecided.

If Moreno goes on to win the general election in November, he would be the first Latino senator from the Buckeye State. But he doesn’t often talk about his experiences as an immigrant or what his potential win would mean for Latinos in the Senate, though others have.

Currently there are six Hispanic senators, four of whom are Democrats: Sens. Alex Padilla of California, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico and Bob Menendez of New Jersey. Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, who is up for reelection this fall, are the Republicans.

Bernie Moreno speaks to room of voters.

Moreno speaks to voters in Toledo on Monday. | Jeremy Wadsworth/The Blade via AP

“Knowing that Trump is endorsing [Moreno], from a Latino perspective, is huge,” Gus Hoyas, a Hispanic GOP strategist who has consulted for Moreno’s campaign, tells The Recast.

Hoyas, who like Moreno is a naturalized citizen from Colombia, called the leading Senate candidate a “tremendous asset” for the GOP, particularly as the influx of migrants at the southern border becomes a top tier issue.

“We just follow the law,” Hoyas continues. “I think this is a great country for any immigrant to come and live, but there are laws. And I think that’s the biggest stance I think Bernie has today.”

Moreno has taken a hard-line stance on immigration, including dropping an ad where he declares he is the only candidate in the primary “who opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants,” signaling that’s partly why he received the Trump endorsement.

The Latino population has seen a modest surge in Ohio, now totaling roughly 4.5 percent of Ohio's population, according to census figures.

But tapping into the immigrant experience and showcasing a success story like Moreno’s could be the difference in the primary, says Luis Gil, a Republican strategist who immigrated to the U.S. from Venezuela and is working to get Moreno elected in and around Franklin County, which includes Columbus, the state capital.

“He wants to stabilize the community,” Gil explains. “The Latino community is … tired of what's happened with the economy, what's happening with education,” he says, adding that Moreno's fresh ideas and new perspective will be much-needed in the Senate.

Polls in Ohio close at 7:30 p.m. local time this evening.

As always, we’ll be keeping a watchful eye.

All the best,
The Recast Team

P.S. Join me in person or on the interwebs for a discussion on financial literacy and what role the government plays in ensuring all Americans have the tools to save and build wealth. I’ll be chatting with Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) and Young Kim (R-Calif.), co-chairs of the Congressional Financial Literacy and Wealth Creation Caucus

Register here

MARYLAND’S SENATE RACE OPENS OLD WOUNDS

David Trone speaks while wearing apron.

Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) speaks at an event in Baltimore in January. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Winning a Senate race in a state like Maryland, one of the most diverse in the nation, requires coalition-building with groups of voters who have wildly differing perspectives and priorities. But few are trying to be as ambitious as Democrat David Trone,who's giving himself a bit of a makeover in one of the toughest Democratic Senate primary fights in the nation.

Trone, who’s in his third term representing Maryland’s 6th Congressional District, is pitching himself to voters as a warrior for criminal justice reform — an unlikely role for one of the wealthiest members of Congress.

Trone, who is white, is spending his campaign advocating for those who’ve transitioned out of the penal system, while using his fortune to forge alliances among Black activists and local politicians, like New York City Council Member Yusef Salaam, a member of the exonerated “Central Park Five,” who was wrongfully imprisoned for seven years. (Trump has refused to apologize for his 1989 ad in The New York Times, when he called for the death penalty for the wrongly convicted defendants.)

Trone is leaning into connections with people like Salaam to assure audiences, particularly in majority-Black Baltimore, that his intentions are genuine.

Angela Alsobrooks speaks into a microphone in her hand.

Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks addresses supporters at a February event in Baltimore. | Brakkton Booker/POLITICO

Trone’s chief rival in the Democratic primary is Angela Alsobrooks, who has the backing of virtually every statewide and federal official in the state. She is looking to make history as Maryland's first Black senator while also bringing some much-needed gender diversity to the state’s all-male delegation in Congress.

The winner of the May 14 primary will take on likely GOP nominee Larry Hogan, the state’s popular former governor.

Hanging over the entire primary fight — and the more narrow debate over who has more appeal to the state’s Black voters — are the deep intraparty fissures that erupted the last time the state had an open Senate seat.

In 2016, then-Reps. Chris Van Hollen, who is white, and Donna Edwards, who is Black, were vying for the nomination to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski. The party establishment backed Van Hollen, long considered a Democratic golden boy, breaking what had been a dead heat in the race. Edwards lost the primary by 19 points.

For a broader look at one of the most intriguing Democratic Senate primaries in the country, check out my overview of the race here.

ICYMI @ POLITICO

Eric Adams speaks at news conference.

Mayor Eric Adams is pushing back against allegations that he sought to extract sexual favors from a woman in exchange for career advice in 1993. | Peter K. Afriyie/AP

New Details in Adams’ Sexual Assault Allegations — POLITICO’S Joe Anuta and Jeff Coltin report on New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ sexual assault allegations from his time years ago when he served as a transit cop. Read more here.

Biden Knocks Trump’s “Bloodbath” — While campaigning in Ohio, Trump warned there would be a “bloodbath” in the country if he doesn’t win in November. POLITICO’s Myah Ward reports that the Democrats and Biden camp were quick to jump on the remarks, dropping a digital ad denouncing Trump for threatening to incite political violence. Trump supporters claim the remark was taken out of context.

Trump Trials and Independents — POLITICO Magazine’s Ankush Khardori breaks down a POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll that suggests a conviction in Trump’s Manhattan trial could cool his support among independent voters.

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