| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lowered the minimum draft age from 27 to 25 years old this week as men dodge conscription, and fired a senior aide and several advisers in yet another government reshuffle. | Yuriy Dyachyshyn/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt| Email Eric The Pentagon is defending its steady rollout of weapons to Ukraine even as officials in Kyiv say the assistance is coming too slowly — and it might already be too late to help turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favor. On Wednesday, our European colleagues detailed criticisms from high-ranking Ukrainian officials, who said they can’t defend the frontlines any longer: “There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now,” one of the officials said. The West doesn’t have the tech to help Ukraine, and it also hasn’t sent weapons quickly enough, the officials said. While the incoming F-16 fighter jets are welcome, they would've been more helpful a year ago, a senior officer said. The planes were originally expected to arrive in Ukraine by the end of 2023, and now they’re supposed to arrive by late spring once pilot training is complete. The Defense Department also wants the process to be quicker, but is arguing that it’s inching along for good reason. “While getting F-16s to Ukraine sooner would be ideal, it still needs to be done properly and we believe they will still provide a significant boost to Ukraine's air power when they become operational,” Pentagon spokesperson Maj. CHARLIE DIETZ told NatSec Daily. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said more than a year ago that the jets alone wouldn’t be enough to change the course of the war in Kyiv’s favor, and Ukrainian officials now say the delay has rendered them irrelevant on the battlefield due to the shifting nature of the war. Russia's large number of soldiers also “poses a formidable threat,” Dietz continued, but he argued that advanced Western weapon systems combined with Ukraine's skilled forces and spirit are helping to level the playing field. Dietz noted that the U.S. has provided some $74.6 billion in assistance since the invasion began. But Ukraine seems to be making increasingly desperate moves, a sign that things aren’t going so well. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY lowered the minimum draft age from 27 to 25 years old this week as men dodge conscription, and fired a senior aide and several advisers in yet another government reshuffle. Kyiv’s delays in obtaining F-16s and Army Tactical Missile Systems from Washington are just two examples of “how much of a fight it's been to drag the White House along to where our allies have been for months,” the Atlantic Council’s DOUG KLAIN, who focuses on Russia’s war in Ukraine, told NatSec Daily. “We've already seen that their fears about escalation or Ukrainian proficiency are overblown.” The Pentagon is planning to send a number of older ATACMS to the country, which can travel 100 miles and carry warheads containing hundreds of cluster bomblets, and it already secretly sent some in September. But Ukrainian officials say there’s one thing that could make a difference now: They want more Patriot missile defense systems to protect against the recent barrages of Russian airstrikes, and they want them yesterday. “Ukraine is the only country in the world that defends itself from ballistic missile strikes almost daily. Therefore, Patriot systems nowadays should operate in Ukraine and not be stored in hangars,” according to an internal Ukrainian government document sent today setting out talking points for Ukrainian officials, obtained by NatSec Daily. “The transfer of Patriot systems to Ukraine is a matter of political will, not physical ability.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA said Wednesday that partners haven’t been sending enough Patriot missile defense systems to Kyiv, and made the plea for more air defenses before a meeting with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN today. The country has a few Patriot systems contributed by the U.S., Germany and The Netherlands — all of which Zelenskyy said were positioned only around Kyiv. Kuleba said partners have more than 100 Patriots at their disposal, and other top officials say that Ukraine can’t obtain more systems by itself.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | BIDEN FLOATS ISRAEL POLICY CHANGE: President JOE BIDEN said that Israel’s actions following the strike that killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers on Monday could change U.S. policy toward the conflict in Gaza. “He made clear that U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps,” per a White House readout of Biden’s call with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU today. That’s a major statement for the president to make, as he has been unwilling to consider policy changes toward Israel, especially as Democratic lawmakers call on him to stop sending weapons to the nation. It comes after harsh critiques from U.S. officials, as well as influential former Obama administration officials. Speaking from the White House podium, Kirby said “we want to see some real changes on the Israeli side.” If that doesn’t happen, “there’ll have to be changes from our side,” he said. The U.S. hopes to see those changes in “hours and days,” Kirby added. Calls for the White House to take firmer action are ramping up. Today, The World Central Kitchen urged governments of those killed to support an independent investigation in the strike, our own PAULA ANDRÉS reports. “We have asked the governments of Australia, Canada, the United States of America, Poland and the United Kingdom to join us in demanding an independent, third-party investigation into these attacks, including whether they were carried out intentionally or otherwise violated international law,” the organization said in a statement. STRIKE IN KHARKIV: Russia hit the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv with at least 15 drones overnight, killing at least four people and wounding a dozen others, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Three of the victims were rescue workers who were killed in a “double strike” on a residential building after they arrived to provide assistance, Kharkiv Mayor IHOR TEREKHOV said on Telegram. The attacks were aimed mostly at residential districts, OLEH SYNEHUBOV, the Kharkiv regional governor, also said on Telegram. UKRAINE GRAIN STRAIN: Ukraine’s military draft has caused a historic gap in the amount of people able to operate farming equipment and keep the economy running, Ukrainian Agriculture Minister MYKOLA SOLSKYI told NatSec Daily. That means companies “probably have the biggest deficit in the history of Ukraine with these people” who are capable of operating heavy machinery like tractors, he said. “Usually the army wants them … They need them for now for tanks and for transporting the army.” With Zelenskyy’s new draft order this week, that shortage could be exacerbated. Ukraine’s agriculture economy has taken a blow since the invasion two years ago, and top Ukrainian officials are estimating that it could take decades for the country’s agriculture economy to fully heal. “The longer the war goes on, the harder it will be for our agricultural sector to recover — even now it may take as long as 20 years for our agricultural strength to be returned after the devastation Russia’s military assault has brought,” Dmytrasevych, the deputy agriculture minister, told NatSec Daily. But Ukraine has been able to consistently deliver tons of grain to needy countries around the world despite its ongoing war with Russia. Since the Black Sea Grain Initiative began — allowing Ukraine to export grain during the war — the country has delivered 170,000 tons of wheat to countries facing food insecurity and famine, Dmytrasevych said. “It is still dangerous, and our ships are under constant threat of attack from the Russian Navy. The process is also expensive and time consuming,” he added, pledging to continue the shipments nonetheless. IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Advancing 21st Century Security
The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security. The most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter in the world is helping those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | KEEPING THE FAMILY TOGETHER: NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG dodged a couple questions about Trump from Foreign Policy’s ROBBIE GRAMER during a three-day ride-along last month. But the alliance chief’s responses indicated his goals if Trump wins office in November. “My main responsibility is to ensure that NATO allies, also the United States, are committed to our collective defense,” Stoltenberg said. “The best way of doing that is not to speculate and not to be a kind of pundit. But it’s about ensuring that I do what I can to keep this family together." When Gramer pressed further about Trump’s possible return, Stoltenberg offered an argument that is sure to resonate with the former president’s base. “The United States is concerned about the economic and military strength of China. Remember that the United States represents 25 percent of the world’s GDP, but together with NATO allies, we represent 50 percent of the world’s GDP and 50 percent of the world’s military might,” he said. “This makes a difference. NATO is good for Europe, but it’s also good for the United States.” Biden echoed a similar sentiment today in a statement celebrating NATO’s 75 anniversary: “We must choose to protect this progress and build on it,” he said. ICYMI — NATO ministers’ doubts, fears and eye-rolls over $109 billion Ukraine plan by our own STUART LAU and AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES
| | GERMAN CYBER BRANCH: Germany will create a new military cyber branch as part of Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS’ call for a revamp of the country's forces to make it fit for fighting a war, our own JAN CIENSKI reports. The new German military will be organized into four branches: the traditional army, navy and air force as well as a new cyber and information space branch. There will also be operational and support commands. The cyber branch will be responsible for dealing with hybrid threats as well as tactical tasks such as electronic warfare. The aim is "to restructure the Bundeswehr in such a way that it is optimally positioned even in the event of an emergency, in the event of defense, in the event of war," Pistorius said in an announcement.
| | MORE BOMBS TO ISRAEL: The U.S. approved the transfer of thousands of more bombs to Israel on the day of the strike on World Central Kitchen workers, The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON reports. The delivery likely won’t occur until 2025 or later, a State Department spokesperson told WaPo. State approved the transfers, which were from authorizations granted by Congress years before the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out, U.S. officials told WaPo, adding that they were greenlit sometime before the Israeli strike on WCK, earlier in the day. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NATO CHECK: Twenty-one Republican senators urged Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN today to update lawmakers by the end of the month on whether NATO members are meeting their spending goals. “The United States cannot be expected to satisfy its financial obligation if other NATO members are unwilling or unable to do the same,” the senators wrote in a letter, led by Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), on the military alliance’s 75th anniversary. Under a provision in the FY2024 defense bill, the DOD must consider whether a NATO partner has spent 2 percent of its GDP on defense, a spending target the alliance has agreed upon. The U.S. would take that into consideration when weighing decisions related to U.S. military bases, training and exercises within the alliance, per the provision. As of the latest assessments, 18 of the 32 members are expected to reach the spending goal by the end of the year, the lawmakers wrote. They requested an update by April 25 on how the Defense Department evaluates U.S. activities as they relate to members' defense expenditures.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | COONS’ CONDITIONS: Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), one of Biden’s most stalwart allies in the Senate, joined a growing chorus of Democrats calling for conditions on U.S. aid to Israel if Israel conducts a military operation in the southern Gazan city of Rafah without an adequate plan to protect civilians. “I think we’re at that point,” Coons told CNN this morning. If Netanyahu “were to order the IDF into Rafah at scale — they were to drop 1,000 pound bombs and send in a battalion to go after Hamas and make no provision for civilians, or for humanitarian aid — that I would vote to condition aid to Israel.” Coons emphasized that he has never come out so strongly in favor of putting guardrails on Israel, but “the tactics by which the current prime minister is making these decisions don't reflect the best values of Israel or the United States.” BIDEN’S BACKCHANNEL: The Biden administration has kept in close touch with Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s office during the recess, working to ensure that he can bring an aid package to a vote on the House floor, our own JENNIFER HABERKORN, ELI STOKOLS and JONATHAN LEMIRE report. The White House provided little official pushback following Johnson’s interview Sunday night on Fox News, when he floated the ideas of making some of the Ukraine aid a loan or repurposing some $300 billion in seized Russian assets. They have also sought to give Johnson breathing room as he navigates the challenge of leading his divided and shrinking majority. Administration officials told our colleagues that they are frustrated by the slow pace in the House, but remain privately hopeful their approach could result in Congress starting to move on an aid package later this month. They also noted that their focus has been on raising the urgency of the issue with Johnson. Read: U.K.’s Cameron tells Europe: Pressure House Speaker Johnson on Ukraine by our own STUART LAU INDO-PACIFIC CODEL: Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) urged the House to pass the supplemental to support Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel to show China that the U.S. will stand by its allies abroad. The funding would “send a very strong message to [Chinese President XI JINPING] and the PRC that we are going to stand by our commitments,” Shaheen told reporters on a call today, following her return from a bipartisan delegation that met with the Japanese, South Korean and Philippine leaders.
| | | |   | | | | | KABUL PUSHBACK: State Department officials told lawmakers over the past year that they weren’t convinced that a noncombatant evacuation plan during the fall of Kabul in 2021 would have made extracting Americans from the country easier. Unveiled in a new tranche of documents, former and current State Department officials told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the chaos of the situation meant the U.S. had to create evacuation plans from scratch and coordinate with the Taliban to manage access to Hamid Karzai Airport. They added that additional briefings probably wouldn’t have helped officials. “Given how fluid the situation was on the ground, I’m not sure that additional preparation time would have yielded a significant benefit,” JOHN BASS, one of the officials, said in his January 2024 interview. The other officials were JIM DEHART and JAYNE HOWELL. Military leadership has criticized State for the lack of an NEO in Afghanistan. The officials noted that nonetheless, coordination between State Department officials and the U.S. military was “unprecedented” and that both were in “lockstep.” For what it’s worth, there is a newly-released book from our own ALEX WARD that gets into this, and much more. ICYMI — Iran ramps up threats against Israel following consulate airstrike by our own GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING
| | — JOE MAHER joined Nixon Peabody, where he'll be a part of the firm's national security and resilience practice, focusing on issues including national security, immigration, counterterrorism and congressional investigations. He previously worked at the Department of Homeland Security for two decades, most recently as principal deputy general counsel. — The Council on Foreign Relations tapped MILLIE TRAN as vice president and chief digital content officer. Tran was most recently vice president of content strategy and growth at Condé Nast. — WARREN RYAN is now acting deputy assistant secretary for Europe, Africa and the Western Hemisphere in the Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes at the Treasury Department. He most recently was a senior adviser and anti-money laundering standards coordinator at Treasury.
| | — DAVID IGNATIUS, JIM GERAGHTY and CHARLES LANE, The Washington Post: ‘A lot of grim realism’: What our columnists heard in Ukraine — TIMOTHY McLAUGHLIN, The Atlantic: The great democratic success story that wasn’t — SUNGMIN CHO, War on the Rocks: The crisis in East Asia: Korea or Taiwan?
| | — Atlantic Council, 8:30 a.m.: The growing role of the private sector in international space collaboration — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: 10th annual Breyer Lecture on "The U.S., the West, and International Law in an Age of Strategic Competition” — Washington Office on Latin America, 10:30 a.m.: Elections without democracy: scenarios for Venezuela — Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Stronger together: the importance of U.S.-Japan economic relations — Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: What can the U.S. learn from Europe about support for Ukraine? — Brookings Institution, 2 p.m.: Two years into the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 5 p.m.: Atomic accord: navigating nuclear diplomacy in Iran — Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, the Georgetown School of Foreign Service and the Georgetown School of Medicine, 5:30 p.m.: Voices from Palestine: healthcare advocacy in a humanitarian crisis Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who should be fired in an editor reshuffle. We also thank our producer, Giselle Ewing, whose job security is unparalleled.
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