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Global Playbook

By Suzanne Lynch

Welcome to the Weekend.  I’m Suzanne Lynch, bringing you Global Playbook from Washington where the city is gearing up for the party of the year ahead of tomorrow’s White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. 

The fun has already started with multiple receptions taking place across the city last night (Playbook was there, and has full reports below) 

A staple of the Washington political calendar since 1921, the dinner is no longer the only show in town, with lots of the action taking place at the parties and receptions that pop up along the fringes of the dinner. This year, the most-coveted ticket is to the Comcast-NBCU News post-dinner party at the residence of the French Ambassador to the United States, complete with bespoke LVMH champagne and rosé bars. Other A-list gatherings include Tammy Haddad’s Garden Brunch tomorrow, and the sumptuous Sunday brunch at the home of publisher Robert Allbritton co-hosted by POLITICO. 

In a departure from the Trump years, U.S. President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will attend the dinner, as well as administration heavy-hitters like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. But the Biden world is braced for possible protests over the war in Gaza near the Washington Hilton hotel where the event takes place. The issue has the potential to become a major political headache for Biden as election season gets into full swing (More on that below.)

GHOSTS OF 1968

NEW YORK, NEW YORK: I took the temperature this week in New York city where some of the big political stories that could shape the U.S. presidential election in November converged.

Split screen: In southern Manhattan, a fuming Donald Trump returned to his home town to face jurors over allegations he paid a porn star to try and influence the 2016 election result. Biden was in upstate New York, showcasing his administration’s CHIPS act and attending a campaign fundraiser at the home of actor Michael Douglas (Catherine Zeta-Jones was out of town shooting a movie, her hubby informed guests)

Campus wars: on the upper-west side of Manhattan, national and international media descended on Columbia University as protests over Israel’s actions in Gaza escalated. In an indication of how the demonstrations are becoming a lightning-rod issue in America’s culture wars, House Speaker Mike Johnson, fresh from securing victory with the House foreign aid package including money for Ukraine and Israel, parachuted into campus Wednesday, defying the heckles and pledging solidarity with Israeli students. 

Middle East brought home: On campus, the atmosphere was highly charged as protestors stood their ground and negotiations continued between university management and student reps about winding down the protest. Jonathan Swill, a 27 year-old Israeli grad student, told me of the emotional toll of the last few months.

“I support the right to protest, but I don’t necessarily support everything they say,” he said, as we looked out on the sea of make-shift tents and Palestinian flags stretching across the West Lawn. “I think the Palestinians deserve a place to live, to feel safe in their land, but a lot of the things the protestors here are saying are not pro two-state solution.”

Jewish concerns: Swill, who began his Masters degree in Biomechanical engineering just a month before the October 7th attack, was himself assaulted on campus in November while he was wearing an Israel badge. “I don’t feel like this campus is genuinely safe for a Jew, because of the ‘us versus them’ attitude that has taken hold.” He has decided to move to Israel after he graduates next week. 

Alternative perspective: Others have a different take. Aaron Abramovich was one of dozens of protesters gathered outside the campus this week. “We’re here in solidarity with the protests,” he says, holding a publication of the Revolutionary Communists of America. “Colombia is cracking down on these protests, because they’re endangering their investment in arms companies that are funding the Israeli occupation. As a Jewish guy I feel obligated to be here.”

Summer of discontent:  It all had a whiff of 1968, the year when America was rocked by protests in the wake of the assassinations of Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr., against the backdrop of the Vietnam war. Ominously for Democrats, the protests reached boiling point at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago that August when violent scenes marred the selection of Hubert Humphrey as the Dems’ candidate — 56 years later, the Democratic convention this year is also taking place in Chicago, in August.  

Balancing act:  The scenes in Columbia this week, which have been replicated on campuses across America, are potentially problematic for Joe Biden. He is trying to tread a fine line between showing support for Israel and listening to the real concerns of many of his (mostly younger) voter base, six months out from the election.

Nothing to see here: As my Washington colleagues  report, for now the Biden team is blasé about the college turmoil, with a recent  poll showing that Gaza is not topping the list of issues that matter for young people. But with the president set to deliver several commencement addresses at universities next month, it remains highly uncertain if the current malaise will fade or snowball. The issue seems like it’s not going away — protesters holding posters with the words “Genocide Joe” greeted Biden on arrival in Syracuse Thursday.

IMF REDUX

TAKING STOCK: The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings came to a close with more of a whimper than a bang last weekend as central bank governors, finance chiefs and civil society groups rounded out a week of meetings in Washington. With attention-grabbing headlines thin on the ground, IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva’s warning that the decade could be remembered as the “tepid twenties” may be the stand-out line of the week. 

Glass half full: There was some progress however. The IMF announced it would lend to countries that are in debt restructuring negotiations with creditors to help heavily-indebted countries trying to negotiate with bilateral lenders (i.e., China). Almost a dozen rich countries pledged $11 billion through World Bank schemes to help countries in-need, while the heads of a group of multilateral development banks agreed that some of the world’s biggest lenders will improve collaboration.

Glass half-empty: But the big-ticket items remained unresolved — not least the long-awaited revision of IMF quotas to reflect the fact that the U.S. and Europe no longer rule the economic world. With China set to be the biggest winner of a quota re-alignment, there was next to no discussion about changing the system to benefit Beijing. (Reminder, the U.S. effectively has a veto at the IMF with a 16.5 percent share, with most decisions needing 85 percent approval.)

So much for soft landing: Meanwhile, figures released Thursday show that the U.S. economy grew by just 1.6 percent in the first quarter, far below expectations. But it was the stubbornly high inflation data contained in the figures that really spooked markets.

Interest rate moves: The data is further weakening the case for rapid interest rate cuts — the main topic of conversation on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings — as the Federal Reserve prepares to meet next week. Further pain could be incoming, when official inflation figures for March are published today. 

Rocky road ahead: Adding fuel to the fire is a new World Bank report warning that the recent fall in commodity prices that’s helped lower inflation has now hit a wall. “That means interest rates could remain higher than currently expected this year and next,” said World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill. Not what Biden — who has said he expects the Fed to cut rates before the year is out — wants to hear.

AROUND THE WORLD

UKRAINE LATEST: War-weary Ukrainians received a much-needed boost as the U.S. finally signed off on $61 billion in aid for Ukraine. The President said Wednesday the U.S. would send military equipment within “hours.” In fact, as our own Alex Ward and Lara Seligman report, the Biden administration last month secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for the first time. Plans to send a tranche of $6 billion worth of weapons and equipment to Kyiv could be made as early as today.

Zelenskyy’s problems: The big question is of course whether it will be enough for Ukraine to win the war, as Russia solidifies its territorial gains and prepares to throw more men and ammunition at the conflict. President Zelenskyy is facing fresh controversy over a temporary ban on issuing new passports and offering consular services to Ukrainian men of fighting age abroad, Veronika Melkozerova reports. It’s the latest flashpoint in the controversy over Ukraine’s new mobilization rules as the country struggles to replenish battlefield losses.

TIME TICKING FOR TIKTOK: Washington’s ultimatum to TikTok’s owner ByteDance to divest of the company or face a ban, may have led panicked teenagers to call their Congress members in protest, but Europe appears unfazed. As Clothilde Goujard reports, EU countries are largely sitting this one out, though the European Commission did launch a probe over the launch of TikTok Lite in France and Spain.

Xi visit: Chinese president Xi Jinping, who met U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken overnight in Beijing, is due to visit Paris in the coming weeks, with trips to the Hungarian capital Budapest and Serbia also on his schedule. The European tour — his first in five years — could be interesting, given the recent arrests of political aides in Europe accused of spying for Beijing.

Bulgaria bound: Hillary Rodham Clinton will head to Sofia next month to convene a special forum focused on women’s entrepreneurship, the Clinton Global Initiative is set to announce next week. The meeting, co-hosted with businessman Kiril Domuschiev, is the latest visit by the former Secretary of State to the country. Bulgaria, an EU and NATO member, is stuck in a cycle of political turmoil and heading for its sixth election in three years in June. Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov, who stepped down this month, warned about Russia’s efforts to exert it influence in the country in an interview with POLITICO.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: to former First Lady Melania Trump, who won’t be attending the White House Correspondents’ Dinner this weekend, but did return to the spotlight over the last week. She co-hosted a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago for LGBT group Log Cabin Republicans along with Richard Grenell, the former U.S. Ambassador to Germany who is seen as a possible contender for Secretary of State if Trump wins in November.

WEEKEND LISTENING: Check out Anne McElvoy’s interview with British Ambassador Karen Pierce recorded last night at the White House Correspondents Weekend reception in the British Embassy (full lowdown of attendees below). The interview with PowerPlay will drop in your podcast feed this morning. 

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Global Playbook is heading for the West Coast where we’ll be covering the Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles. First edition will hit your inbox Saturday May 4th. 

OUT AND ABOUT

SPOTTED at the White House Correspondents Weekend kick-off party at the residence of the British Ambassador last night: British Ambassador Karen Pierce, POLITICO’s Goli Sheikholeslami, John Harris, Matt Kaminski, Alex Burns, Anita Kumar, Alex Ward, Lara Seligman, Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Biden campaign adviser Mike Donilon, Attorney General Merrick Garland, Senate aide Rachel Cohen, Spokesperson for the French Embassy Pascal Confavreux, National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne, State Department’s Ned Price, Special Advisor to U.S. Ambassador to Germany Zach Leighton, David Charter of the London Times, the Economist’s Anton LaGuardia, Semafor’s Justin Smith. Swiss Ambassador Jacques Pitteloud, Mike Thom of the National Republican Campaign Committee.

SPOTTED at the Bytes and Bylines party at the residence of Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason: Former chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci, Biden adviser Mike Donilon, CNN’s Sam Feist, journalists Donie O’Sullivan, Ed O’Keefe, Caitríona Perry, political consultant Karen Finney, White House aide John McCarthy, Daire Hickey of 150 Bond.

SPOTTED at the Axios-Live Nation’s “Step into the Spotlight” party last night at the OAS Headquarters: Rapper  Jelly Roll, CNN’s David Chalian, former House Speaker Paul Ryan, Journalist Tara Palmeri, Targeted Victory’s Ryan Williams, McCain Institute’s Amy Grappone, Bloomberg’s Craig Gordon, Rachel Palermo of Jenner & Block.

THANKS TO: My editor Tim Ross.

 

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Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1

 

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