Housing campaign heats up

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Apr 04, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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In today's edition:

→ The Liberals are facing increasing provincial pushback over their housing announcement train — though not from all corners.

→ Dispatches from behind the scenes at the foreign interference inquiry, and a peek at who is next to testify.

DRIVING THE DAY

CASH CLASH Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is into her third day in a row of housing announcements, although controversy over a major one Tuesday has followed her and other Cabinet members around.

Several provinces have their backs up over one of the key housing measures the Liberal government rolled out this week in their budget drippity-drip, and is drawing even more crossfire.

— Shots fired: Saskatchewan, Ontario and New Brunswick quickly hit back over the thick strings attached to the C$6 billion housing infrastructure fund Tuesday when it comes to zoning and jurisdiction — ramped-up expectations from Ottawa on conditions for shelling out funds. (B.C.’s Premier DAVID EBY notably welcomed it).

Alberta came out swinging even harder the next day. A joint statement by UCP Cab Mins JASON NIXON and RIC MCIVER said the Liberals are playing politics with measures that trample on provincial jurisdiction which will “only make it harder and more expensive to build homes,” even claiming the move is an extension of the Trudeau government’s “punitive green agenda.”

— Slight lag: Out on the hustings in Edmonton Wednesday, that conflict forced Freeland to defend the previous day’s policy announcement. In Toronto, the PM did the same. Not that they were unhappy to. They very much want to talk housing.

— The line: Asked about advancing the housing plan amid such strong provincial opposition from the likes of Ontario Premier DOUG FORD, who dug in on his policy on fourplexes Wednesday, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU said his government’s “entire frame on housing is about being as ambitious as we possibly can to support Canadians to get them into affordable homes.”

If provinces don’t want to play ball, they’ll turn to cities. “Ideally, we work with the province,” he said. “If not, I know [Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW] has already told me, ‘Hey, send the extra money to Toronto.’”

— A friend in need: Chow was there for the presser and, when asked about the requirement for big cities to freeze development charges for three years, Chow said NBD: “What we need is, of course, infrastructure funds.”

(Toronto has done many of the things that meet the requirements.)

— Similar tune: Quebec Cabinet ministers FRANCE-ÉLAINE DURANCEAU and JEAN-FRANÇOIS ROBERGE complained of jurisdictional intrusion; Montreal Mayor VALÉRIE PLANTE welcomed the measures.

— Odd lifeline: If Ontario Premier DOUG FORD rejects the money, it forces the hand of municipalities like Windsor to decide on thorny issues like fourplexes, says housing expert MIKE MOFFATT, thereby “downloading those decisions onto municipalities who now have to choose whether or not they will adopt these provisions or forego the money.”

— Early winner: The policy whisperers. It’s still too soon to see who will sign on and how many units it will mean.

But Moffatt, who has pitched ideas to fix the crisis to the Liberal Cabinet, has counted up about a dozen ideas from the independent Task Force for Housing and Climate’s (he’s a member) blueprint for more and better housing the federal government adopted in some form.

He said the infrastructure funding Tuesday, and the funds announced Wednesday for apartment construction financing, are both moves in the right direction.

“We're seeing housing starts decline because of those high interest rates, so the federal government stepping in can certainly help out there,” he said of the latter move.

— Political test: DON IVESON, co-chair of the task force, tells Playbook the pushback from some provinces is “regrettable, but predictable,” but he thinks Ontario will eventually come around.

“You've had the blame shifting and ping-ponging between local governments and the federal government, and this will put the question back to provincial governments — who actually do have a huge number of levers at their disposal — whether they are in fact pro housing in their policies, or whether there are other political points to be scored that are driving the agenda.”

 — The line: Ford struck a deferential tone delivering points Wednesday, saying municipalities know best and it's “not up to the province to dictate where every single building is going to be.”

The big issue he raised when speaking with reporters in Vaughan: The Bank of Canada needs to lower rates to 4 percent so homes can start to “pop up like mushrooms.”

— In related reading: In a column this morning, AARON WHERRY of CBC News writes: "Just as there are no atheists in foxholes, there are apparently no constitutionalists in a housing crisis."

 — Next BoC decision: April 10, just days ahead of the federal budget. The next, next rate-date: June 5, which is 62 days from now.

 — Quick reminder: Three provincial elections are expected this year, in B.C., Saskatchewan and New Brunswick, not to mention municipal races.

 — Future friction?: Enterprise’s ANDREW TUMILTY, who has worked on Liberal campaigns, tells Playbook Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, who rails against gatekeepers and whose own housing plan would engage in some hardball with provinces, should theoretically be at odds with the likes of Ford.

“If this isn't motivated entirely by partisanship, you know that that's a position from the premier that Mr. Poilievre should be quite critical of,” he said.

— Spin twin: Crestview’s ROB GILMOUR, who has worked for the Ontario PCs, was as unimpressed with the notion as the whole budget roadshow tour, which he said won’t move the needle for them electorally.

He said Poilievre deals with provinces pragmatically, pointing to a recent positive meeting with Manitoba NDP Premier WAB KINEW.

Asked about the housing announcements, he sighed.

“I don't know how you capture an exasperated sigh in an interview,” said Gilmour.

“I just don't think anybody's buying this. People can't afford to buy houses under Justin Trudeau, and they certainly can't afford to buy his photo-op hype today, either,” he said. “Too little, too late.”

 

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For your radar

Erin O'Toole

Erin O'Toole on the stump during the 2021 campaign. | Cole Burston/Getty Images

FROM THE HOGUE COMMISSION — Betcha never heard this one before.

Chinese foreign interference may have helped weaken former Conservative leader ERIN O'TOOLE's tenuous hold on his party following a disappointing 2021 election loss that cost him his job after a caucus revolt.

O'Toole floated the theory during testimony at the Hogue commission. A few more MPs, and a larger opposition in the House, could have improved his “moral justification to stay on as leader,” he said Wednesday.

“There were other forces at play,” O'Toole said in the next breath, acknowledging the widespread loss of faith in his leadership among caucus and party membership.

→ CPC dreams: O'Toole told POLITICO last year that his party stood a chance of winning the 2021 election even as the campaign entered its final week. On Wednesday, the commission saw the Conservatives' modeling. Five days before the vote, the Tory model gave the party a five-seat lead: 134 seats, to the Liberals' 129 and the NDP's 40.

O'Toole acknowledged Wednesday that Tory fortunes soured during the final week of the campaign, when he said the Liberal position in favor of vaccine mandates solidified Trudeau's reelection to a third term.

→ Spotted: As former Conservative MP KENNY CHIU testified Wednesday about the Chinese foreign interference he says he experienced in 2021, NDP MP JENNY KWAN and Conservative MP MICHAEL CHONG — both of whom have also been targeted — quietly waited their turn in the public gallery.

→ Attempted vs. successful: "The People's Republic of China sought to clandestinely and deceptively interfere in the 2021 Canadian federal election."

That stark observation was noted in a document produced by the Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections Task Force (SITE) a few months after the 2021 election.

SITE didn't conclude that Chinese interference attempts were successful.

Still, O'Toole testified that his party felt "lulled into a sense of complacency" by SITE's laissez-faire attitude toward interference threats in both 2019 and 2021. The task force was "not as complete, not as professional and not as transparent as it should have been."

Three senior campaign officials complained Tuesday that mid-campaign SITE briefings in 2021 were unhelpful, offering only surface-level info with few specifics.

— Watch this space: Conservatives are zeroing in on Liberal membership eligibility requirements. International students can join the party and vote in nomination races — no need for citizenship or permanent residency. (The Tories require members to be at least permanent residents.)

Chong played out the potential consequences of open membership rules in a hypothetical party leadership race. "We are effectively opening up the appointment of heads of government in this country to foreign interference," he told the commission.

→ The operatives chime in: "There's 'open and inclusive' and then there's just an empty vessel, a political void," tweeted HOWARD ANGLIN, a former deputy chief of staff to STEPHEN HARPER whose name pops up regularly on PIERRE POILIEVRE's list of disclosed contractors.

"It's one thing to allow PRs to vote in nominations (standard practice), it's another to allow international students. Very obviously a bad idea," added ANTHONY KOCH, a comms aide on Poilievre's leadership campaign.

Don't be surprised if the Tory leader enters the chat on this one.

— Next up: Nobody in the room denies the 2021 election result. But federal officials set to testify over the next two days face big questions about the ways in which they relayed intelligence to party representatives who'd undergone extensive security clearances.

→ Today: DAN ROGERS from the Communications Security Establishment; DAVID VIGNEAULT, MICHELLE TESSIER and CHERIE HENDERSON from CSIS HQ; BO BASLER from CSIS "Regions"; MICHAEL DUHEME and MARK FLYNN from the RCMP; and CINDY TERMORSHUIZEN and DAVID MORRISON from Global Affairs.

→ Friday: ALLEN SUTHERLAND from the Privy Council Office; and LYALL KING, GALLIT DOBNER, TARA DENHAM, ERIC GORDON and LISA DUCHARME from the 2019 and/or 2021 SITE task forces.

TELL US WHAT YOU KNOW — We welcome your tips and intel. What are you hearing that you need Playbook readers to know? Send details.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will meet with families in Winnipeg to discuss affordable housing. At 10:10 a.m. (11:10 a.m. ET), he'll be joined by Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW to make a housing announcement. They will take media questions afterward.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s schedule has her in Toronto, touring an “affordable rental apartment building” at 11:30 a.m. with another housing announcement in store, and a media avail slated for 12:30 p.m.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines a rally on Vancouver Island at Shelter Point Distillery in Campbell River.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH joins union workers on the picket line of Griffin Wheel workers in Winnipeg at noon local time (1 p.m. ET), ahead of a 3 p.m. (4 p.m. ET) meeting with Premier WAB KINEW.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY is also in Winnipeg alongside Deputy Leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT, and has morning meetings scheduled with the Main Street Project and Forward House Ministries Inc.

DULY NOTED

3:30 p.m. (4:30 p.m. AT) Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON and Liberal MP KODY BLOIS headline a fundraiser at Grand Pré winery in Kings-Hants, Nova Scotia. 338Canada projection: "CPC leaning gain"

6:30 p.m. Defense Minister BILL BLAIR hosts a fundraiser for his Scarborough Southwest riding association at The Pilot in Toronto's Yorkville neighborhood. 338Canada projection: "LPC safe hold"

MEDIA ROOM

Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly speaks with the media as she arrives for a meeting of NATO foreign ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Wednesday, April 3, 2024. NATO foreign ministers gathered in Brussels on Wednesday to debate plans to provide more predictable, longer-term support to Ukraine. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)

Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly arrives at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday. | AP

— POLITICO's STUART LAU and AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES report from Brussels that while NATO chief JENS STOLTENBERG wants a revolution in how the alliance finances and arms Ukraine, his plan drew a mixed response from NATO foreign ministers on Wednesday.

— The Hill Times just published its list of top 50 people with international sway.

— Analysis from PETER ARMSTRONG tops CBC News this hour: What Tesla's troubles tell us about the EV industry.

— Immigration Minister MARC MILLER is on “The Paul Wells Show,” an episode outside the paywall.

— National Post's CHRIS SELLEY writes: School meals is another phoney Liberal 'national' program.

— “Carbon tax conversation is a distraction at this point,” MAX FAWCETT writes for the National Observer. “Worse, it actually helps the CPC avoid talking about its preferred climate policy of doing nothing.”

— Sen. YVONNE BOYER talked to APTN’s "Nation to Nation" about Bill S-250. “The bill was created to address the sterilization of Indigenous women and others who are vulnerable,” she said.

— The Globe's MATTHEW MCCLEARN reports on a study today that shows Canada’s rate of forest loss from wildfire quintupled in 2023 from previous year.

— Meanwhile, BRIAN SIMPSON, a scientist with the Canadian Forest Service, tells CBC News reporter ETHAN LANG: “We anticipate an early start to the fire season and more widespread fire activity than usual."

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU, retired Ontario MPP JIM WILSON, RICHARD (RICK) MORGAN and former MP MARC LEMAY.

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Spotted: "A Long Time Ago: Growing up with and out of Star Wars," a book about the legendary sci-fi franchise's fandom written by GIB VAN ERT — aka counsel for Tory MP MICHAEL CHONG at the Hogue commission.

Bloc MP DENIS TRUDEL appearing in a recent video by Canadian indie rock band Hey Major.

Movers and shakers: HANNAH THIBEDEAU has joined Global Public Affairs as a communications officer.

PROZONE

Don’t miss our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers.

In other headlines for Pros:

California regulators suggested scrapping Scope 3 from a landmark corporate climate bill.

Tesla sales drop for first time since pandemic.

Low-carbon shift raises risk of blackouts, US grid execs warn.

Shrinking Arctic ice redraws the map for internet cable connections.

Blame California (and termites) for rare greenhouse gas.

ON THE HILL

Find House committees here.

Keep track of Senate committees here.

Parliament returns April 8, but there is one House meeting on Thursday’s schedule: 10 a.m. HARTAJ NIJJAR and LYDIA LEE will join a break-week gathering of the public accounts committee, which is studying ArriveCAN.

TRIVIA

Wednesday’s answer: “Everybody screamed, stamped, clapped hands” when ELVIS PRESLEY played Ottawa on April 3, 1957. In case you missed it, Sen. MARC GOLD paid tribute to the anniversary on Wednesday with his own rendition of “Hound Dog.”

Props to HUGUES THÉORÊT, MATT DELISLE, LAURIE KEMPTON, BOB GORDON, MARCEL MARCOTTE, LAURA JARVIS, AMY CASTLE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, TOD COWEN, KATIE FEENAN, STEVE KAROL, DOUG RICE, JENN KEAY. 

Today’s question: “It sent a message… early in the life of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms… that it was an inclusive document, that it embraced the strangers in our midst and ensured that they too were entitled to fair treatment in the determination of their rights.”

What was lawyer BARBARA JACKMAN talking about? And how does it connect to this date in history?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Correction: Wednesday’s Playbook misidentified Point Roberts, the American exclave near Vancouver Island.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Maura Forrest @MauraForrest

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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