| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | WHAT JEN O’MALLEY DILLON IS READING — The GOP-backed bid to change Nebraska’s presidential elector system to a winner-take-all setup — likely giving DONALD TRUMP an extra Electoral College vote in the process — failed in a lopsided 8-36 procedural vote in the state legislature last night, leaving the fate of the proposal in doubt, the Lincoln Journal Star’s Andrew Wegley reports. Related read: “Biden camp reaches out to Nebraska Dems as state considers denying president crucial vote,” by Elena Schneider, Madison Fernandez and Jonathan Lemire
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Speaker Mike Johnson’s determination to act on Ukraine is putting him on a collision course with his conference’s hard-liners. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | ARE JOHNSON’S DAYS NUMBERED? — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON would like Washington to believe he's playing a meticulous game of chess as he prepares to pass Ukraine aid while fending off a right-wing revolt. He might have instead played himself into checkmate. Days after floating a three-pronged plan to get the controversial Ukraine funding through the House, the speaker’s chief antagonist has undertaken a mini media tour slamming his proposals and attacking Johnson himself. Yesterday, CNN’s Manu Raju caught up with Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE on Johnson’s proposal to turn Ukraine aid into a “loan” to make the foreign assistance more palatable to GOP critics. The Georgia Republican called it a “heaping, steaming pile of bullshit.” “That is so insulting to the American people,” she said. Greene reiterated that allowing Ukraine aid to pass with Democratic support under suspension of the rules — as, we’re told, is Johnson’s current plan — would likely lead her to trigger a vote to oust Johnson. She also rejected suggestions that ousting Johnson would empower Democrats, calling the speaker “MITCH McCONNELL’s twin — and worse.” “This isn’t a Republican speaker we have right now; this is a Democrat speaker,” Greene later told Tucker Carlson. “There is zero daylight between what NANCY PELOSI did … and what Mike Johnson is doing. … We don’t know who Mike Johnson is anymore.” New reporting this morning from our colleagues Jennifer Haberkorn, Eli Stokols and Jonathan Lemire isn’t going to do much to tamp down those feelings. Johnson’s team, they report, has kept in touch with the White House through the recess about Ukraine funding. President JOE BIDEN and his team has in that time mostly “held off on aggressively attacking the speaker over the drawn-out process for getting it passed. Instead, they’ve sought to give Johnson breathing room as he leads a fractious GOP caucus with an ever-shrinking majority.” Greene might be a lone wolf for now, and — to be sure — there is little appetite among the GOP rank and file for a reprise of October’s three-week leadership meltdown. But Johnson’s determination to act on Ukraine is putting him on a collision course with his conference’s hard-liners, multiple Republicans tell us — and Greene’s removal push could easily grow legs. The speaker, we’re told, is well aware of the threat hanging over his head — and that he has a bunch of tricky items on his April to-do list that will piss off various other corners of his rank-and-file. When Congress returns, he’ll have to not only oversee the Ukraine situation but shepherd the conference through an intra-party fight over surveillance laws, to name one. There’s hope among Johnson’s allies, however, that the recent bipartisan minibus was the heavier lift with the GOP and that the rest will now more easily follow. (Wishful thinking perhaps?) They’re also betting that MTG’s motion-to-vacate push, with its potential to throw the House into chaos in an election year, will prove too toxic for anyone to join her. (So far she’s the only person calling for his removal.) Others aren’t so sure. One House Republican recently mused to us that Johnson might have more easily survived this had he called Greene’s bluff and forced a vote on her motion to vacate right before the recess. The person said it would have “shown leadership and strength” and “left a good number of people like me say[ing], ‘OK, this guy’s got some balls.’” But he didn’t, the member continued. And “every day that it gets kicked down the road, the chance of it happening becomes more real.” Yes, it’s possible that a small group of Democrats could save Johnson for doing what they perceive to be the “right thing” for the House as a whole, as we wrote in Playbook months ago in the context of the then-brewing border deal. Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES said as much to the NYT before recess, predicting that “a reasonable number” of Democrats would come to Johnson’s rescue if Greene pulls the trigger. The trap for Johnson is that if Democrats did that, it would infuriate the GOP base and be untenable for his speakership. His critics on the right would mock him as the “Democrats’ speaker.” That, in turn, would pressure some Republicans who might not otherwise be inclined to support his removal into eventually endorsing it. “I can tell you this for sure: If there is a motion and Democrats jump in to support Johnson, that greatly diminishes him because then he’ll immediately become the ‘uniparty’ speaker,” said one senior House Republican aligned with Johnson, who argued that the House GOP majority as they know it would be lost even before the election. “Everything would be run on suspension because people would take down rules — or they’ll do continuous motions to vacate.” Some Republicans say they could be more forgiving. The first Republican we mentioned above argued that the House is already being run as a “coalition government” because Johnson is passing most bills through suspension anyway. So what’s the difference? That argument, however, is unlikely to win over hard-liners who are already peeved with Johnson over the minibus vote. Even if Johnson somehow manages to hold on — and that’s a big “if” — there are already whispers in House GOP circles that he’s not long for the role of senior-most Republican. Many Republicans privately concede that they’re unlikely to keep the House this fall. And if they don’t, there will be pressure on Johnson to step aside from leadership completely, as has happened to GOP speakers who have lost the majority since the 1950s. “What’s he going to say? ‘Oh, shucks, guys … I ran everything through suspension and lost the majority, and I still want to be your leader’? That’s not going to be tolerated,” the Republican above said. Some are also privately asking if Johnson even wants the job anymore. In private conversations in recent weeks, he’s expressed his exhaustion and complained about a lack of sleep and the demands of frequent traveling. When shit hits the fan, members say, he’ll have some soul-searching to do. If MTG gets her way, that moment may come sooner than he thinks. “I’m planning to speak with him on Friday,” Greene told Carlson, “and I’m very much looking forward to that.” Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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Explore the impact of the metaverse. | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: INSIDE DEMS’ ‘MAGA’ BRANDING — When President JOE BIDEN started using the phrase “MAGA Republicans” in early 2022, political watchers routinely mocked the president’s word choice. Some compared the new jargon to HILLARY CLINTON’s use of “deplorables” to describe Trump supporters. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned in, proudly boasting that yes, they were proud MAGA Republicans. These days, however, Democratic pollsters credit that branding, in part, for stopping the red wave predicted in the midterm elections. And Biden and his political team are already using it again this cycle. A new book by Isaac Arnsdorf, our former POLITICO colleague-turned-Postie, dives deep into the genesis of that messaging campaign. In “Finish What We Started” ($30), Arnsdorf chronicles the frustration Dem operatives felt after GLENN YOUNGKIN’s 2021 victory, when TERRY McAULIFFE tried — and failed — to tie the vest-wearing, basketball-dad Virginian to Trump. They needed some way to paint Republicans as radical that also rang true to voters. CAP Action Fund’s NAVIN NAYAK, Hart Research’s GEOFF FARIN, Global Strategy Group’s MATT CANTER and JEFREY POLLOCK and SKDK’s OREN SHUR teamed up with the White House’s ANITA DUNN to fine-tune the phrasing. They found that more than 80% of voters were familiar with “MAGA” — and that half had an unfavorable opinion. “It seemed to capture everything Navin was hoping to convey about today’s Republicans: that they had changed, that they were power-hungry, divisive, extreme, and dangerous,” Arnsdorf writes. Dunn brought Nayak in to meet with Biden’s messaging consiglieri, MIKE DONILON. And the rest was history. Related: WaPo also just posted an excerpt from Arnsdorf’s book — this one focused on STEVE BANNON’s rise to become the godfather of the MAGA movement. It’s worth reading to get a sense of how Bannon saw Trump’s ascendance as a tool to further his ambition to tear down the GOP establishment. Arnsdorf reports that Bannon didn’t think Trump would win in 2020. Nor did he think voters necessarily needed to overthrow the election on Jan. 6 — despite what he said on his infamous podcast. It was all to stoke a nationwide political rebellion and catapult the next wave of the MAGA movement — a fight he’s continuing in 2024. Bannon’s thinking: If MAGA takes out the establishment, he thinks the movement “could rule for a hundred years,” Arnsdorf writes.
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … Plenty has been written about the new, muscular approach the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, aka AIPAC, is taking in with political spending, but its latest targets are raising eyebrows: In suburban Baltimore, affiliate group United Democracy Project is seeking to boost Maryland state Sen. SARAH ELFRETH over former Capitol Police officer HARRY DUNN and others in the Democratic primary race to succeed retiring Rep. JOHN SARBANES with over $500,000 in TV ads. Even more surprising, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports: UDP is spending a similar amount to target its first Republican, former Rep. JOHN HOSTETLER, who is mounting a comeback bid in southwest Indiana. The group cites an allegedly anti-Israel voting record during his previous congressional stint from 1995 through 2007. At the White House Biden will host a reception tonight celebrating Greek Independence Day. VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Charlotte, North Carolina, where she’ll speak about the administration’s climate efforts alongside EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN at 2:15 p.m. She’ll later speak at a campaign reception before returning to Washington.
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Despite growing criticism from Democrats, the Biden White House isn't changing its policy on Israel and aid to Gaza. | Tsafrir Abayov/AP | IT FEELS LIKE A TURNING POINT — The killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in a series of Israeli airstrikes Monday continues to spark outrage, as the White House struggles to stay its course (i.e. undaunted military support for Israel) in light of the very real possibility that the political calculus at play has changed in some fundamental way we’re only beginning to understand. Today: Biden is expected to express his anger over the attack to Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU in a call, CNN’s MJ Lee reports. And yet: “There has simply been no shift in policy,” a senior administration official tells CNN. “What there has been is a shift in the president’s frustrations.” Is that sustainable? It’s not simply the usual band of “Free Palestine” activists or DSA-adjacent politicians speaking out anymore.
- “The President doesn’t get credit for being ‘privately enraged’ when he still refuses to use leverage to stop the IDF from killing and starving innocent people,” posted JON FAVREAU, the former BARACK OBAMA speechwriter and influential “Pod Save America” host. “These stories only make him look weak.”
- “The U.S. government is still supplying 2 thousand pound bombs and ammunition to support Israel’s policy,” BEN RHODES, another former Obama aide and deputy national security adviser, wrote on X. “Until there are substantive consequences, [Biden’s private] outrage does nothing. Bibi obviously doesn’t care what the U.S. says, [it’s] about what the U.S. does.”
- “I hope this will be the moment where the president changes course,” Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) tells the NYT, for a separate news analysis by David Sanger and Peter Baker. “Netanyahu ignored the president’s requests, and yet we send 2,000-pound bombs with no restrictions on their use.”
- And JOSÉ ANDRÉS, the celebrity chef and founder of WCK, is vocally and emotionally rebutting the Israel Defense Forces’ claims that the strike was a “grave mistake,” telling Reuters’ Jeff Mason that the IDF targeted his workers “systematically, car by car.”
Gaza aid now in jeopardy: Prior to the strike, the U.S. had been closing in on an agreement with the World Food Programme and other aid groups to distribute food and other resources once a military pier was built. Now, these groups are “pressing for additional reassurances from the U.S. for the safety of their aid workers,” and “questioning who they can trust,” Lara Seligman, Erin Banco and Alex Ward scoop. LOOK WHO’S TALKING — Trump recently spoke with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan report: “It was unclear what the two men discussed and whether it was their only conversation since Mr. Trump’s departure from the White House. … But news of their discussion comes at a time when the Biden administration is engaged in delicate negotiations with the Saudis.” TRUMP CARDS
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Donald Trump is set to go on criminal trial in Manhattan this month. | Wilfredo Lee/AP | AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN — A judge nixed Trump’s last-ditch effort to further delay his Manhattan criminal trial yesterday, refusing the former president’s request that the April 15 trial be delayed until after the Supreme Court rules on his claim of presidential immunity in a separate criminal case, Erica Orden reports. “Trump filed those requests on March 7, just 17 days before the trial was originally scheduled to start, and [Justice JUAN] MERCHAN wrote that their timing ‘raises real questions about the sincerity and actual purpose of the motion,’” adding that Trump “had myriad opportunities to raise the claim of presidential immunity well before March 7, 2024.” Mark your calendars: The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments related to Trump’s presidential immunity claims in his federal election case on April 25. “A decision by the high court is expected by the end of June, and waiting for such a decision would have delayed the Manhattan trial yet again,” Erica writes. BAR NONE — Former Trump attorney JOHN EASTMAN has asked the judge who ordered his disbarment to suspend her decision so that he can continue to work as a lawyer and support his criminal defense, Kyle Cheney reports.
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|  The White House and Israel are continuing to clash over Israel's plans for a major offensive in Rafah. | AP | MIDDLE EAST MEETS WEST WING — Tensions rose during a virtual meeting between senior Israeli and White House officials Monday to review Israel’s plans for a ground invasion of Rafah after the Americans questioned Israel’s plan to evacuate more than 1 million Palestinian civilians from the city and house them in tents, NBC’s Courtney Kube and Carol Lee report: “RON DERMER, Israel’s minister of strategic affairs, began yelling and waving his arms around as he defended the plan … American officials in the meeting, including national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, kept calm and did not respond in kind.” Related read: “How Biden’s White House Gathering for Ramadan Unraveled Over Gaza,” by NYT’s Erica Green THE ANTI-PROJECT 2025 — The White House is finalizing a plan today that would restrict future presidents from “unilaterally nixing civil service protections from large swaths of the federal workforce,” after Trump’s repeated promises to uproot federal worker protections, Nick Niedzwiadek reports. Under the new rules, “employees whose jobs include civil service protections would not lose them if their position is converted to an exempt category … The regulations also establish several procedural hurdles for an administration to clear if it wants to shift jobs between categories.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY ALABAMA SUPREME COURT LATEST — “Hospital at Center of Alabama Embryo Ruling Is Ending I.V.F. Services,” by WaPo’s Emily Cochrane 2024 WATCH VIVA KENNEDY — After ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s independent campaign announced he has gathered enough signatures to land a spot on the ballot in Arizona and Nevada, Latino Democrats have raised major concerns that his candidacy could encroach on Biden’s support among Hispanic voters in the Southwest, Adrian Carrasquillo reports for POLITICO Magazine this morning. “Kennedy’s popularity appears to be a function of name recognition and a general lack of enthusiasm for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.” VETTING KENNEDY — Kennedy is now “receiving his first real political vetting,” with his campaign lamenting how progressive organizers have ramped up their various protests and attacks, Brittany Gibson reports. It is in part the byproduct of the fact that “Democrats are taking third-party threats seriously, and anti-Kennedy antagonism has spiked now that the general election is underway and the independent candidate continues to draw significant support in the polls.” MORE POLITICS MONSTER HAUL I — Sen. SHERROD BROWN’s (D-Ohio) campaign announced a massive fundraising haul for Q1 of 2024: more than $12 million, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports. The three-term senator is running against Trump-endorsed businessman BERNIE MORENO in November in the formerly purple state. “Brown’s campaign reported having $13.5 million in the bank, according to a pre-primary federal campaign filing report that was filed in March. … Meanwhile, Moreno had $2.39 million cash on hand.” MONSTER HAUL II — Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) pulled in more than $7 million in Q1 after her national star turn for grilling college presidents on antisemitism, Alex Isenstadt reports. “The figure is the most that Stefanik, the fourth-ranking House Republican, has ever raised in a single quarter across her political operation. … By comparison, Stefanik raised $5 million during the fourth quarter of 2023 and $3 million the quarter before that.” BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — “How a swing district Democrat is running as ‘conversations’ candidate,” by Nick Wu THE ECONOMY FED UP — Fed Chair JEROME POWELL noted yesterday that the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates this year, despite stronger-than-expected economic growth, WSJ’s Nick Timiraos reports. In comments at a conference in Stanford, California, Powell said, “The recent data do not … materially change the overall picture, which continues to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down to 2% on a sometimes bumpy path.” Powell’s comments come just ahead of the release of the March jobs report tomorrow morning.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Antony Blinken experienced some mechanical issues on his flight from Paris to Brussels. Jill Biden announced the nation’s top teachers will attend a White House state dinner. Rick Scott is dropping beaucoup bucks to reach Hispanic voters in Florida. SPOTTED: Condoleezza Rice walking into Cafe Milano last night. FOR YOUR RADAR — Anthony Fauci will join Georgetown Law’s O’Neill Institute as a distinguished senior scholar. He currently is a distinguished professor at the Georgetown University School of Medicine and McCourt School of Public Policy. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Howard Kass is now VP of government and legal affairs for Skyryse. He previously was VP of government affairs for American Airlines and head of corporate affairs for Clear. TRANSITIONS — Kamara Jones is now deputy chief comms and marketing officer at the ACLU. She previously was principal deputy assistant secretary of public affairs at HHS. … Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) has added Anthony Cruz as comms director and Anthony Fakhoury as deputy comms director. Cruz most recently was head of market development at Tango. Fakhoury most recently was press secretary for Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.). … Asia Hentkowski is now director of operations for the Congressional Black Caucus. She previously was digital media director for Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.). … … Gabbi Salmon will be senior legislative affairs consultant to the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health at Booz Allen Hamilton. She previously was a senior associate at the Vogel Group. … Michael McBride will be VP of strategic congressional and political affairs for Lockheed Martin. He previously was VP of legislative affairs at BAE Systems. … Teneo has added Rory Cooper as a senior managing director and Kevin Seifert as an adviser. Cooper previously was a partner at Purple Strategies and is an Eric Cantor and Bush White House alum. Seifert is a senior adviser at the American Ideas Federation and is a Paul Ryan alum. ENGAGED — Marcus Thaw, a systems engineer at Booz Allen Hamilton, and Becca Arbacher, a senior adviser on nuclear strategy and policy with the Joint Staff J5, got engaged March 15 at Kuang Si Falls in Laos. They met playing Frisbee. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jesse Hunt, founder and president of Monadnock Strategies and an RGA and NRSC alum, and Kim Hunt, a director of program development at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business, welcomed McKenna James Hunt on Saturday. She came in at 7 lbs, 12 oz and 21 inches. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Treasury’s Warren Ryan … DOT’s Michael Halle … Michael Leach … POLITICO’s Katie Brennan, Tilovon Crite and Debra Capua … Business Roundtable’s Molly Edwards Connor … NYT’s Jo Becker … Deloitte’s Dan Jacobs … Charles Halloran … Jake Olson … Jennifer Humphrey … Bloomberg Government’s Heather Rothman … Jeffrey Ekoma … Michael Merola of Winning Strategies Washington … GE’s Meg Thurlow … Molly Mitchell of Mitchell Media … NBC’s Joy Wang … Chris Crawford of Rep. Buddy Carter’s (R-Ga.) office … Allan Lichtman … Nick Snow and Bridget Spurlock of Targeted Victory … Ali Rubin … Elizabeth Daigneau … former Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-Ore.) … former NSA Director Bobby Ray Inman (92) … former Sen. Mo Cowan (D-Mass.) … Delaware AG Kathy Jennings … ABC’s Julia Cherner … Mike Raburn Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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