| | | | |  | | By Sue Allan, Kyle Duggan and Nick Taylor-Vaisey | | Presented by |  | | | Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → Productivity is not everything, but it’s almost everything. Discuss. → The deadlines and logistics that drive the budget roadshow. → Three more NDP MPs are calling it quits. So, now what? |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | |  "You’ve seen those signs that say, 'In emergency, break glass.' Well, it’s time to break the glass," Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, shown here with Bank Governor Tiff Macklem, said last week. | AFP via Getty Images | CONVERSATION STARTER — “Productivity” is the not-so-secret word of the day. If you’ve been swept up in the budget roadshow, you may have missed that we’ve achieved “peak productivity” — at least as measured in words and columns devoted to Canada’s predicament. The Bank of Canada’s CAROLYN ROGERS made headlines last week when she advised a Halifax business audience that it’s “time to break the glass” on the urgent need to improve productivity — that is, our ability to make more stuff per hour, boosting economic growth and improving quality of life for Canadians. The Logic’s KEVIN CARMICHAEL thanked the deputy governor for doing the country a service by sounding the alarm. Thought leadership at the Royal Bank and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce have weighed in. The April 2 editorial in Sun papers declared: “Low productivity kills Canadian dream.” How could we be doing so poorly? ANDREW COYNE asked in the Globe, which helpfully also published an explainer. ANDREW CHANG of CBC News has also tried to figure it out. KEVIN PAGE of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy talked about it at length last week with Sen. PAMELA WALLIN on the “No Nonsense” pod. Just yesterday in the Financial Post, PHILIP CROSS of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute agreed: “Lagging growth in Canada really is a national crisis.” — What to do, what to do: Next week in Toronto, economists, business leaders, policy makers and politicians will take to the stage at Canada Growth Summit 2024, a Public Policy Forum event on April 11 at which POLITICO is a media partner. In advance, the PPF has published a own productivity explainer. The stated ambition of next week's gathering: “Fixing productivity once and for all.” | | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | | 
"Since 2015, U.S. productivity — output per hour worked — has grown nearly 15 percent," says economist Trevor Tombe. "Whereas in Canada, it's grown only 1.8 percent." | Jeff McIntosh, The Canadian Press | ‘THE SITUATION IS URGENT’ — University of Calgary professor TREVOR TOMBE will be one of the thought leaders taking up the PPF’s challenge. Ahead of next week's summit, Tombe spoke to Playbook about the productivity gap, political bluster and the places where Canada should be focusing its firepower. This interview has been slightly abbreviated. Subscribers can read the extended edition here. All at once everyone is talking about productivity. There are a lot of challenges regarding Canadian productivity — and there always has been. There has always been a gap between how much we produce per hour of work in Canada compared to the United States. What makes this moment very different from the past is that the gap has widened very quickly over the past few years. Since 2015, for example, U.S. productivity — output per hour worked — has grown nearly 15 percent. Whereas in Canada, it's grown only 1.8 percent. That's just massive. It basically means Canada's economy at the end of 2023 is about C$380 billion smaller than it would otherwise have been if all we did was kept pace with the United States. That's a little over C$9,000 per Canadian in lost economic activity. The scale of the challenge has just grown so enormously in recent years. Naturally, I think it receives a lot more attention than it did before. And rightly so. The latest ranking of the OECD puts Canada 29th out of 38 for labor productivity. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers made headlines for suggesting it's time to break the glass. Do you agree? I do think the situation is urgent. I’ve noted the widening gap relative to the United States. I can't recall a period where we've diverged so quickly in such a short span of time. The greatest affordability challenge is not inflation. It is not that prices have risen as much as they have. It's that our incomes haven't grown as much as they could have had they just kept pace with the U.S. That's a massive issue. Productivity is not everything, but it’s almost everything. I was rereading a column of yours from 2018 that called out “political bluster.” You wrote the avoidance of full and frank debates, “may be easy, but it's not free.” Would you extend the same caution to current political debate? Political statements are often over simplified. That's nothing new. While I may not like that, it's certainly easy for me to say, not having tried to communicate complex ideas to millions of people the way [politicians] do. What I think is clear is that issues around the productivity implications of government choices are neglected. This is true across the political spectrum. We simply don't prioritize productivity as much as we should. Where should Canada be concentrating its firepower? In terms of actual policies a government might pursue to boost investment and productivity growth in Canada, it would really be redoubling efforts on infrastructure. We do not have adequate infrastructure in Canada — the ability to move goods from point A to point B is heavily constrained and more costly than it needs to be. That's an important part of productivity growth in a country that spans a vast geography with limited population density. We need a lot more focus on infrastructure and transport, freight transport capacity, more rail, more roads, more ports — all of the above. That's not cheap. The potential benefits in terms of economic growth could be enormous. — In related reading: Here’s Tombe’s latest for The Hub: “The ‘Great Canadian Slump’ is back.”
| | | | A message from Google: At Google, we know it can be tough keeping your family safe online. So we help make it easier by automatically turning on safety settings for kids and teens. With protections like filtering explicit content with SafeSearch, blocking age-restricted videos on YouTube, and more. To find online safety features for kids and teens, visit: g.co/families | | | | | BUDGET 2024 | | HOW TO PLAN A ROADSHOW — As the government's pre-budget roadshow trundles toward the two-week mark, Playbook asked LARYSSA WALER to explain unseen logistics that drive the daily agenda-setters. Waler, now a principal at GT & Company, is a Harper-era Hill staffer who also served as Premier DOUG FORD's executive director of communications — a budget insider during Ford's early days in power. — Budget geography: The government may insist the announceable goodies are about people-facing policy. But politics dictates where the lecterns are sent. "You have to take into account where your votes will be coming from," says Waler. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has so far announced child care or housing spending in Vancouver and nearby Surrey; Toronto and suburban Scarborough; Dartmouth, Nova Scotia; and Winnipeg. Today, he's in Calgary. Each stop comes with ministers who get camera time, premiers or mayors who share the spotlight, and supportive advocates who back up the policy. — What you can't say: Liberals appear buoyed by the roadshow, patting themselves on the back for finally serving up a comms strategy that satisfies cynical pundits. But ever-skeptical journalists and lobbyists are asking the obvious: What'll be left to announce on Budget Day? Waler says Freeland's big day will be about the gory details. The roadshow is about broad themes and big numbers. "The budget is a market-impacting document," she says. "You can announce an intention to spend, but the actual fiscal picture has to be held until budget day." — What a win looks like: "A good budget comms rollout is now one that ends with a quieter week and no obvious mistakes," says Waler. — Copy deadlines: The need to actually print the budget document forces the government's hand, imposing time constraints and work-back schedules. "The policy for the budget would be baked weeks, if not months, before the actual budget," says Waler. "The document needs to be checked, re-checked and approved by so many levels and bodies; and then you have to translate all of it and get it printed, since the MPs get hard copies. You also have to do all the branding: make podium signs, digital assets, write scripts and then get your politicians comfortable with the material." → The bottom line: "Eventually they'll move to just digital copies," says Waler. For now, Gutenberg's centuries-old technology keeps the government in check.
| | | | A message from Google:   | | | | | Talk of the town | | | 
“Politics has a shelf life,” said former NDP adviser Jordan Leichnitz. “As we come up to an election, it's a pretty natural moment of reflection for people.” | POLITICO Canada | NDP VETERANS TO VACATE — Three long-time New Democrats in JAGMEET SINGH’s caucus won’t be rejoining him on the campaign trail: Northern Ontario MPs CHARLIE ANGUS and CAROL HUGHES, and B.C. MP RACHEL BLANEY. Angus, the MP for Timmins-James Bay for two decades who at one point sought party leadership, has been a fixture in Canadian politics, known as a brash gadfly for hounding the government of the day on such issues as Indigenous child welfare and education funding — most notably his advocacyand writing around SHANNEN KOOSTACHIN, a youth activist from Attawapiskat who died in 2010 in a car accident. Hughes won the Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing riding from the Liberals in 2008 and has been MP for nearly 16 years, and assistant deputy speaker for nearly a decade. Blaney, the party’s whip, has been around the block since 2015 and has been recognized for her portfolio work advocating for women in defense. Both Hughes and Angus’ federal riding boundaries are being redrawn, with Hughes’ being pulled apart, with part of it glommed onto Angus’ — factors that contributed to their decisions to leave. — A fight to the bitter end: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE took a shot after the news broke: “Charlie Angus jumps ship rather than face voters after he voted to hike the carbon tax and ban the hunting rifles of Northern Ontarians.” Angus’ response to being repeatedly name checked by the Tory leader: “I never expect much class from Pierre so I don't expect it now." Angus said he’d be back at work on Monday. “I'll be going at Pierre and holding him accountable for the disinformation in the B.S. he loves to spill. I'm not going anywhere in the near future.” The MP said he’s leaving because his riding is getting another 20,000 square km to cover this month, morphing into what he called a “super riding.” Playbook will have has a full interview with Angus Monday. — Bittersweet: “Politics has a shelf life,” said former NDP adviser JORDAN LEICHNITZ. “As we come up to an election, it's a pretty natural moment of reflection for people.” “[Angus] has been doing this for 20 years, which is a long time,” Leichnitz said, “but to have your riding suddenly become so much larger — that obviously demands a lot more in terms of the lack of work-life balance that is already so tough for MPs.” — Sad, but not surprising: Earnscliffe’s MÉLANIE RICHER, a former NDP comms director, described each of the three MPs not running again as down-to-earth people who could connect with nearly anyone. — A big loss: Their institutional knowledge and perspectives. Blaney was adopted and raised by an Indigenous family, and Richer said she was “really impactful when she brought what she saw in her community to the caucus table.” “A wise, very reasonable, pragmatic perspective that'll be missed for sure.” — King of the zing: Angus also had a reputation as a quip machine — not something that always worked in his favor but often brought the yuks and media attention. A quick sampling: → During the Senate expense scandal, he referred to "Senator Come-From-Away, MIKE DUFFY, who hits up the taxpayer for $41,000 by claiming to live in P.E.I.” "He doesn't even qualify for the income tax reduction on residency, and when was the last time he actually mentioned the great people of Prince Edward Island in the Senate? It has to be at least seven months, which is why the people of Cavendish call him Mike Who?" → He called the trio of senators under scrutiny at the time “the three most ridiculous Senate appointments since Caligula appointed his horse,” then apologized to the House the next day because the “horse was a resident of Rome.” → Outside the Commons,he slayed with a dig at the early Trudeau government’s particular brand of non-answers, comparing them to nightmarish children’s programming: “How do you wrestle with Teletubbies who want to keep hugging you, right?” | | | For your radar | | |
ELECTORAL MATH — If the three hardened NDP incumbents had made one more run, they'd have been in tough against hard-charging Conservatives.
PIERRE POILIEVRE has made a habit of visiting each riding. He's toured northern Ontario enough, dating back to his leadership campaign, that he might as well rent a pied-à-terre somewhere between Thunder Bay and Sault Ste. Marie. → Timmins-James Bay: Poilievre has razzed Angus in the House for living in Cobalt, Ont., which is not in the riding. The Conservative leader dropped into Timmins in January 2023, as well as June, July and most recently January of this year. 338Canada calls the riding a CPC/NDP toss-up — and the loss of Angus' star power will likely hurt the NDP. GAÉTAN MALETTE is carrying the Tory banner in the next campaign. → Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: Poilievre's regional tours have also touched Hughes' riding, which sits in part between Sudbury and the Sault — a working-class town where the Globe's SHANNON PROUDFOOT interrogated Poilievre's local appeal. 338Canada currently gives the New Democrats a razor-thin advantage (although the riding won’t exist in the next election due to redistribution). → North Island-Powell River: Tory candidate AARON GUNN is the betting favorite to win Blaney's Vancouver Island riding that 338Canada pegs as a likely gain. Poilievre swung through the island in March 2023, again in September and November and last month. He's also spent much of this week in the area, rallying supporters yesterday in Blaney's riding.
| | | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | | |
GOING, GOING, GONE — Angus, Hughes and Blaney are just the latest MPs to announce they are not returning.
Within the NDP family, MP DANIEL BLAIKIE left to work for Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW. RICHARD CANNINGS and RANDALL GARRISON are out of the running for next election. Looking Liberal-side, former cab mins DAVID LAMETTI left for a gig in law and CAROLYN BENNETT took up an ambassadorial gig in Denmark. Liberal MPs not seeking re-election: JOYCE MURRAY, NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, WAYNE LONG, EMMANUEL DUBOURG, HELENA JACZEK, OMAR ALGHABRA, LLOYD LONGFIELD, TONY VAN BYNEN and KEN HARDIE. ANDY FILLMORE is considering running for mayor in Halifax. Then there’s that whole thing that happened with ANTHONY ROTA. Former Conservative MP ALAIN RAYESwon’t run for his Quebec seat again. Conservative MP RON LIEPERT is retiring and longtime Conservative ED FAST won’t seek re-election either. Did we miss anyone? Toss us the names here. | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Calgary to make a housing announcement at 10:30 a.m. local time (12:30 p.m. EST) , flanked by Housing Minister SEAN FRASER and Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT. Later he's scheduled to take part in a fireside chat with members of Calgary's business community.
— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is Bouctouche, New Brunswick, for a housing announcement at 2:45 p.m. local time followed by a media availability. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released their public schedules. Conservative Deputy Leader MELISSA LANTSMAN will hold a press conference in Toronto at 12:15 p.m. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Winnipeg where he’ll meet with seniors at 11:45 a.m. local time to discuss dental care. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will travel from Winnipeg to Vancouver. At 6 p.m. local time, she and B.C. Green candidate JEREMY VALERIOTE will take part in a Q&A at the West Vancouver Lawn Bowling Club.
| | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | | UP: The carbon tax. DOWN: Negative press for the Liberals, who finally won some pundit plaudits for the budget roadshow that’s driving news cycles. | | | MEDIA ROOM | | |
— Top of CBC News this hour: India, Pakistan attempted to interfere in Canada's elections: CSIS.
— From the Star's TONDA MACCHARLES: Inside the fight between provinces and the prime minister. — The Hub and Pollara teamed up on polling that suggests Canadians think Trump 2.0 would deeply damage Canada. — The fear and anger at rising rents and unattainable home ownership finally has the attention of policymakers, POLITICO columnist VICTORIA GUIDA writes of the U.S. housing debate. — Reuters’ FERGAL SMITH reports homebuilding in Canada is expected to be down for third year, — From our colleagues in London: Everything you need to know about the phishing attack on MPs and staff in the U.K. parliament. — In the Globe, ROBYN URBACK writes: “Who set fire to our once-enviable immigration system? Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on a mission to find out. … If he has time, maybe he can look into who keeps tacking on the federal debt, too.” | | | PROZONE | | |
Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers: Trudeau: No plans to raise taxes on middle class.
In other news for Pro readers: — Big banks split over push to disclose climate finance ratios. — World ‘far off track’ to meet 2030 goal to stop deforestation. — EU’s power sector emissions plummet as renewables surge. — US starts 'green bank' to finance community climate projects. — Controversial ALS drug Relyvrio pulled from the North American market.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to Liberal MP TONY VAN BYNEN, former Alberta deputy premier THOMAS LUKASZUK, former MP RICHARD NADEAU.
On Saturday: ANAIDA POILIEVRE, Liberal MP BARDISH CHAGGER, Sen. ÉRIC FOREST and former CPC MP GUY LAUZON (80!). On Sunday: HBD to Longueuil mayor CATHERINE FOURNIER, Consul General of Canada in Boston BERNADETTE JORDAN (she is hiring, by the way), Alberta MLA THOMAS DANG and former MPP DAVID ZIMMER (80!). Spotted: As snow fell on Ottawa, a hopeful tweet from the House of Commons featuring crossed fingers and tulips on Parliament Hill. SUSAN DELACOURT finally regaining control of her X account that was hacked a month ago. A newly posted PIERRE POILIEVRE fundraiser April 11 at a private residence in Maple, Ont., where the host's postal code matches KENNETH AND MADELEINE BODENSTEIN, donors to ROMAN BABER's 2022 party leadership campaign and who were among the guests at the wedding of DOUG FORD's daughter. Movers and shakers: Former AFN national chief PERRY BELLEGARDE appointed Chair of the First Nations Bank of Canada. MADELEINE GOMERY, former staffer for CATHERINE MCKENNA and BILL BLAIR and granddaughter of the late Quebec jurist JOHN GOMERY, joined JONATHAN WILKINSON’s office this week as a senior communications manager. StrategyCorp's FRÉDÉRIK LAROUCHE was promoted to director of government relations. Media mentions: SIERRA BEIN is welcoming applications to Shared Bylines.
| | ON THE HILL | | Parliament returns Monday.
| | TRIVIA | |
Thursday’s answer: BARBARA JACKMAN was referring to the Supreme Court’s April 4 ruling on the Singh case.
Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, STEPHEN HAAS and PATRICK DION. Friday’s question: Which Canadian university did the late former mayor of Toronto ROB FORD attend? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: Nick Taylor-Vaisey. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
