Abortion’s a window into 2028 for Dems

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May 28, 2024 View in browser
 
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Driving The Day

Illinois Gov. J. B. Pritzker and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer participate speak at an event

Abortion-rights talking points by Democrats like Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as they stump for President Joe Biden could be a hint of what's to come in a 2028 presidential campaign. | Noam Galai/Getty Images for Clinton Global Initiative

BACK TO THE FUTURE — Want to catch an early glimpse of the 2028 presidential campaign? Then pay attention to how top Democrats talk about abortion as they stump for President Joe Biden, POLITICO’s Rachel Bluth, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Shia Kapos report.

Abortion offers a chance for Democratic up-and-comers to speak to new audiences and highlight their ability to protect and expand access to the procedure, all while skewering former President Donald Trump and Republicans.

It would be “political malpractice” for anyone considering a run in 2028 not to elevate abortion, said Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist and a top aide to former Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Abortion also offers a glimpse into what the potential candidates see as their strengths and how they might try to separate from the pack — even as they insist their only focus is 2024.

Vice President Kamala Harris has made reproductive rights the lynchpin of her reelection campaign outings, helping to rejuvenate her political brand. She leans into personal stories and is more forceful on the trail than Biden, a practicing Catholic who has never seemed at ease discussing abortion throughout his five-decade career.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, through his Campaign for Democracy PAC, has paid for TV ads to run in Alabama and Tennessee needling conservatives for their proposals to criminalize helping minors travel out of state for reproductive care.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer regularly reminds audiences that she helped overturn an anti-abortion law in Michigan while offering advice on how other states can follow her lead.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, an heir to the Hyatt Hotel empire, established Think Big America in 2023, a nonprofit that supports abortion rights and is led by Mike Ollen, the governor’s former campaign manager.

Think Big America gave $1 million to Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, the coalition pushing to get an abortion-rights measure on the November ballot, $500,000 in April to the Floridians Protecting Freedom ballot initiative campaign and $250,000 to Arizona’s ballot campaign.

“It’s the battle before the battle,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a national Democratic political strategist. “They're building constituencies for themselves for the future. … The possibility that Mars will hit Jupiter is more likely than this [debate about abortion] being resolved. Even if it is, women across the country will still look with deep resentment that the argument even had to happen.”

WELCOME TO TUESDAY PULSE. We hope you had a great Memorial Day weekend. Reach us and send us your tips, news and scoops at bleonard@politico.com or ccirruzzo@politico.com. Follow along @_BenLeonard_ and @ChelseaCirruzzo.

 

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AROUND THE AGENCIES

Anthony Fauci and Donald Trump speak.

As president, Donald Trump repeatedly hinted that he wanted to fire a top NIH official, Dr. Anthony Fauci, over his handling of the pandemic. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

‘TRUMP-PROOFING’ NIH — The National Institutes of Health is shoring up its safeguards against political interference in science research.

The backdrop: A coming election that could restore Donald Trump to the White House. Trump grew irritated with the agency during the pandemic, and his former aides are eager to bring it to heel if they get the chance.

“The previous administration used debunked reports and misleading data to justify policies that put the health and well-being of all Americans at risk,” a White House spokesperson told POLITICO’s Erin Schumaker in a statement.

The plan: The NIH has designated an official, Lyric Jorgenson, to identify political meddling in the agency’s work and is tasking a soon-to-be-established scientific integrity council with reviewing those cases. The agency plans to report on the outcomes of its investigations into loss of scientific integrity.

The White House knows Trump could cast those plans aside but is calculating that doing so will set off alarms in the media, Congress and the public. The Biden administration also hopes lawmakers, even those who think the NIH needs an overhaul, will temper Trump’s moves if he wins in November.

NIH leadership is moving apace to implement Biden’s directive, said Jorgenson.

Even so: If Trump wins, conservatives at the Heritage Foundation and the Paragon Health Institute are ready with policy ideas for overhauling NIH, such as a reorganization and an executive order to make it easier to fire federal workers and hire political appointees for policy-making jobs.

They say NIH needs reform because its scientists are infected with progressive ideology and its bureaucracy is too cozy with its grantees.

But Trump should have no illusions about what he’s up against, according to Dr. Joel Zinberg, who worked on health policy on the Council of Economic Advisers during Trump’s term and is now a senior fellow at the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute and a director at another think tank, the Paragon Health Institute.

“The NIH is an entrenched political organization. They are a very powerful institution in Washington.”

 

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CAMPAIGN 2024

THE HOUSE-SENATE DIVIDE — Democrats’ presidential campaign advertising has focused heavily on abortion, but Senate races have been a different story so far, according to a new analysis of television advertising from the Wesleyan Media Project.

Abortion has been the No. 1 issue for the Biden campaign’s advertising, followed by prescription drugs, women’s rights and health care, according to the analysis. It was also the top issue for Democrats in House race advertisements but has been “rarely mentioned” in Democratic Senate race advertisements since the start of 2023.

Instead, Senate Democrats’ top issue has been prescription drugs, followed by housing and health care. Drugs and the opioid epidemic have also been significant issues for them, according to the analysis.

Prescription drugs a bipartisan issue in Senate ads

Larry Levitt, KFF’s executive vice president for health policy, told Pulse that since the data has largely reflected primary races, it might not necessarily be a strong indicator for future general election messaging.

“With no competitive presidential primary on the Democratic side, House candidates have likely been looking to turn out the base, and abortion is a very effective issue to do that,” Levitt said.

Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said the divide might indicate the specific mix of Senate races like Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) bid to hold onto his seat in a state that Trump won handily in 2020.

“In those settings, bread and butter issues are probably seen as more appealing across party lines than reproductive rights,” Burden said.

Meanwhile, Republicans have largely avoided health care in ads, according to the analysis.

Democratic House candidates hit hard on health in ads

Immigration was the top issue, followed by the budget and public safety in both House and Senate Republicans’ ads. Drugs were the No. 5 issue in ads for both, and prescription drugs were the No. 9 issue for Senate Republicans. The issue didn’t crack the top 10 for House Republicans.

 

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IN THE STATES

A CALIFORNIA CRACKDOWN ON AI IN PRIOR AUTH? The California Senate unanimously voted in favor of legislation that would rein in insurers’ use of artificial intelligence in coverage decisions.

The California Medical Association-backed bill would mandate doctor oversight of decisions made by insurers’ algorithms by requiring denials or delays due to medical necessity be made by licensed doctors or providers. It would also create “fair and equitable” standards that plans using AI would have to abide by.

“Artificial intelligence is an important and increasingly utilized tool in diagnosing and treating patients, but it should not be the final say on what kind of healthcare a patient receives,” said state Sen. Josh Becker (D-Menlo Park).

The bill moved late last week to the Assembly for consideration.

The bigger picture: States are racing to regulate AI in health care amid inaction in Congress. Colorado has a new AI law that would regulate AI use in the private sector, bolstering consumer protections and addressing algorithmic bias.

Health plans’ care denials through prior authorization have come under bipartisan scrutiny in Congress. Insurers have defended the practice, saying it can curb wasteful spending.

 

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Names in the News

Sarah Williams is now director of political advocacy at the Federation of American Hospitals. She previously was senior manager of voter education at the American Bankers Association.

WHAT WE'RE READING

STAT reports on the FDA being urged to look into claims of underreported adverse events in psychedelic trials.

POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly report on what Trump could do to restrict contraception access, even as he pledges not to “ban” it.

 

A message from PhRMA:

Hospitals that participate in the 340B program contract with more than 33,000 pharmacies to dispense the program’s drug prescriptions. More than 40% of these pharmacies have financial ties to one of the three largest PBMs – CVS Health, Express Scripts and OptumRx. 340B hospitals and the PBM-owned pharmacies they contract with are profiting off discounted medicines while uninsured patients are left paying full price for their medicines. Let’s fix 340B so it better helps patients.

 
 

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