GREETINGS FROM SINGAPORE, where the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue kicks off later today. Suzanne Lynch here on the ground with my colleagues Zoya Sheftalovich and Stuart Lau. We’ll be bringing you all the latest from the annual defense and security conference right through until Monday. SETTING THE SCENE: The annual gathering in one of Singapore’s swankiest hotels has become an increasingly influential forum for the world’s top defense and security policy types, particularly as concerns over China’s saber-rattling in the region and the broader geopolitical battle for influence in the Asia-Pacific have shot up the political agenda. THE HIGHLIGHTS: A keynote speech by the Philippines’ new President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. today and speeches by Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Saturday. Also on Austin’s agenda: A bilat with Chinese counterpart Dong Jun just days after Beijing engaged in military exercises around Taiwan. The Singapore stop is the first leg of a trip that will also incorporate a visit to Cambodia, before finishing in France to mark next week’s 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings. MAKING THE TRIP: Representatives from more than 40 countries, including Ukraine, along with around 350 journalists, are expected to attend the annual conference organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Confirmed attendees: Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.; Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto; U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin; China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun; Japan’s Defense Minister Minoru Kihara; South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik; Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, who is also the defense minister; EU High Representative Josep Borrell; New Zealand’s Defense Minister Judith Collins; German Chief of Defense General Carsten Breuer; Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur; Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren. SINGAPORE’S MOMENT IN THE SUN CHANGING OF THE GUARD: There’s a new kid in town, with Singapore playing host to the annual meeting less than two weeks after Prime Minister Lawrence Wong was sworn into office, warning of a “more violent” world. The 51-year-old former deputy prime minister and finance minister was the hand-picked successor to Lee Hsien Loong, the son of Singapore’s first Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, who’d been in office since 2004. Navigating the challenges: Wong may be inheriting the stewardship of one of the region’s great economic success stories — Singapore under the Lees developed into a mecca for foreign investment and trade — but the city-state is facing a number of challenges, from cost-of-living pressures to managing the fallout from a rare corruption scandal. Down with the kids: For readers who are unfamiliar with the guitar-strumming genial new PM, check out his social media accounts, where he has been busy introducing himself to the world (and coming out as a Swiftie). He’s on Facebook, Insta, X, YouTube and yes, TikTok, the Singapore-headquartered social media platform owned by China-linked ByteDance. Caught in the middle: The recent ultimatum from the U.S. Congress that ByteDance should divest TikTok to avoid a ban in the United States — and the heated grilling of its Singaporean Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew — encapsulates the conundrum facing Singapore: Geopolitically, the city-state is treading a fine line as it positions itself between an increasingly assertive China and the United States — a theme that’s likely to dominate discussion at the forum (more on that below). Grab ‘em while you can: Regardless, there are plenty of signs Singapore is powering through. Billionaires are snapping up heritage properties, according to the Financial Times, with Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio’s family offices the latest to purchase so-called shop-houses in Singapore. UNCHARTERED WATERS EMERGING SECURITY THREATS: As delegates gather in Singapore for the annual dialogue, the hosts at the International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) have put out their latest Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment this morning. Playbook got a sneak preview. US-China tensions: Unsurprisingly, the competition between Washington and Beijing looms large, despite signs of improvement since President Joe Biden’s meeting with Xi Jinping last November in San Francisco. The report notes that China’s “economic, diplomatic and security coercion has been uneasily felt by countries across the region” including India, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, and has even extended into the South Pacific. Choosing sides: In particular, the report zooms in on the polarization effect of U.S.-China strategic competition on small and middle powers in the Asia-Pacific. “The more integrated a regional country is within the U.S.-led security network, for example, the higher the cost for that country to expand or deepen its defence relationship with China, and vice versa,” it states. Joining forces: When it comes to combined military exercises, the report finds that the U.S. is the partner of choice for most Asia-Pacific countries, engaging in 1,113 exercises with nations in the region between 2003 and 2022. China’s total was less than 130. But Beijing has been catching up, developing partnerships with Indian Ocean partners, particularly Pakistan. Deciphering China: The report’s author Evan A. Laksmana says it’s difficult to assess how this would play out in practice. “China generally doesn’t do allies, so it’s hard to compare the quality and frequency of U.S. military exercises with regional countries versus those of China because they value these allies in hugely different terms,” he told Playbook. “In any kind of future regional conflict it’s not entirely clear when and how China would rely on close partners. In the case of the U.S., war-fighting plans are very much dependent on working together with allies and partners across the region. So there’s asymmetry there in terms of how they’re preparing for perhaps the same set of conflicts.” Whither ASEAN? The report also has tough words for the ASEAN grouping, noting that mechanisms for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are “struggling to find a footing and make an impact.” Verdict: “Without an energetic leadership, regardless of who the rotational chair is, ASEAN’s attempt to shape the broader Asia-Pacific will likely fall short.” Trump-proofing the Asia-Pacific: The report also addresses the looming election in the United States and the possible return of (the just convicted) Donald Trump to the White House: During his first term, Trump “often sent the anxiety levels of Asia-Pacific leaders and policymakers through the roof … a feat he will likely repeat if he returns in 2025,” the report concludes. And in case you were wondering: Yes, Trump can still be president as a convicted felon, as POLITICO's Ben Feuerherd explains. UKRAINE’S ASIA CHALLENGE GETTING THE REST OF THE WORLD ON BOARD: Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv faced another uphill battle: convincing non-NATO countries to row in behind it and ditch ties with Moscow. A long history of colonial rule, coupled with frustration at the West’s sidelining of other global conflicts, from Sudan to Yemen, prompted accusations of double standards from some countries outside NATO or the G7 group of advanced nations. Read the full story here. Gaza challenge: That task has been made more difficult by the war in Gaza. Given the traditionally pro-Palestinian stance of many countries across Africa, Asia and South America, the West is facing allegations of double standards as Israel continues its assault on Rafah. Warning to the West: Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo, who will address the Shangri-La Dialogue Saturday, has been one of the most vocal critics of what he sees as Western hypocrisy, accusing the West of caring more about Ukraine than Palestinians in a recent interview with the Economist. Last year Prabowo (then Indonesia’s defense minister) made waves at the Shangri-La Dialogue by urging Ukraine to accept a Korea-like demilitarized zone with Moscow, which would effectively oblige Kyiv to accept the loss of territories conquered by Russia. Let’s see if he repeats a similar message this time around. Taiwan angle: While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has long been presented as a cautionary tale in the Asia-Pacific region — demonstrating how a smaller nation can be invaded overnight by a bigger, more powerful neighbor — that argument is no longer breaking through to the same extent. War fatigue: Even before Oct. 7, which resonated with citizens in many Muslim-majority countries in Asia, there were signs the world’s attention was moving on from the Ukraine war. The latest Democracy Perception Index, an annual survey of more than 60,000 people across 53 countries, shows support for Russia gradually increased between 2022 and 2024 in the Global South. China warning: Meanwhile, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell warned Europe about China’s efforts to help Russia in its war against Ukraine. Campbell described Beijing’s aid for Russia over the last 18 to 24 months as “deeply concerning.” “I do want to underscore that what we’ve seen from China to Russia is not a one-off or a couple of rogue firms involved in supporting Russia. This is a sustained, comprehensive effort that is backed up by the leadership in China that is designed to give Russia every support behind the scenes,” Campbell told reporters including our colleague Stuart Lau in Brussels. Now read this: The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — but only near Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city. Read the POLITICO report. ON THE GROUND FORECAST: 29C/85F, showers. GETTING AROUND TOWN: You’ll need to download one of the ride-hailing apps that work in Singapore: Grab, Gojek, CDG Zig, Ryde or Tada. Or do as the locals do and download them all, so you can pick the cheapest ride at any given time. CAFFEINE HIT: Playbook’s resident coffee snob Zoya Sheftalovich vouches for Common Man Coffee Roasters, with several locations around town. (Come for the iced white, stay for the brunch.) LUNCH TIP: Head over to Cantonese restaurant Summer Palace over at the Conrad Singapore Orchard for lunch for Michelin-starred dim sum that won’t break the bank. Playbook’s top picks are the char siu buns, sticky rice lotus leaf with baby abalone, chicken, duck, mushroom and conpoy, and the lobster dumplings with prawn, pine nuts and caviar. Tea-lovers will be in for a treat — speak to the tea sommelier for a recommendation. DINNER’S SORTED: It’s the obvious choice — for a reason: Get down to the hawker center at Newton Circus for wings, BBQ stingray, oyster pancakes and satay. AGENDA Today’s events kick off with a series of bilateral meetings taking place throughout the morning and early afternoon at the Shangri-La hotel. Here’s the agenda, you can download the official app here, and watch the livestream. Highlights — 9:30 a.m. “In the Same Boat? Interconnected Threats to Transatlantic and Indo-Pacific Security” roundtable discussion hosted by Munich Security Conference; Raffles Hotel — 2:45 p.m. Launch of the Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2024 launch; Acacia Room — 4:45 p.m. Session 1: Deterrence and Reassurance in the Asia-Pacific; Acacia Room — 4:45 p.m. Session 2: Defense Cooperation and Small State Security; Casuarina Room — 4:45 p.m. Session 3: Myanmar: Opportunities for diplomacy amid different visions for peace; Banyan room — 7 p.m. Ministerial reception; Hibiscus I — 7 p.m. Opening reception; Island Foyer — 8 p.m. Keynote address by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and opening dinner; Island Ballroom WHAT WE’RE READING — Hong Kong convicts democracy activists in largest national security trial, the New York Times. — Partial count in South Africa election puts ruling ANC below 50% as country senses momentous change, Associated Press. — Trump’s pollsters think they can spin any verdict in his favor, POLITICO. | 
