| | | | |  | | By Peder Schaefer | |  Election officials count absentee ballots on Nov. 3, 2020 in Beloit, Wisconsin. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | ENDANGERED SPECIES — President Joe Biden’s polling might be anemic, but across the map an unusual thing is happening: Democratic Senate candidates are running well ahead of him and showing little sign of getting dragged under by the president’s unpopularity. CBS/YouGov has Rep. Ruben Gallego beating Kari Lake by 13 percentage points in Arizona. According to The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College, incumbents Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.), Bob Casey (D-Penn.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) are up by nine, five and two points, respectively. That’s obviously a different story than the presidential landscape. In Arizona, CBS/YouGov shows Biden down five points, while the Times has him down seven. That same poll also reports Biden trailing Nevada by 12 points and Pennsylvania by three, while he holds a two-point lead in Wisconsin. If those numbers hold, 2024 would mark the return of an endangered species in American politics — the ticket splitter. Voting for a House member or senator of one party and then a president from a different party has all but disappeared, as state and regional politics become increasingly polarized and partisan identities become more rigid. A spike in ticket-splitting this fall would suggest Americans might have reached peak polarization, and rewarded down ballot candidates who were able to distinguish their brands from the national party. Yet even those who study the question closely are not convinced that such a high level of ticket-splitting can hold in such a contentious election year against the backdrop of America’s tribalized politics. “It’s certainly possible we could see some higher rates of ticket splitting, but I would be surprised if it were as high as what we are seeing in recent polling,” said Alan Abramowitz, a professor emeritus at Emory University who has studied historical trends in ticket splitting. “The phenomenon of negative partisanship is just so high right now.” Ticket splitting peaked in 1972, according to analysis by Abramowitz, when nearly 30 percent of voters opted to cast ballots for different parties for their member of Congress and the presidency. That was the year when President Richard Nixon won by a landslide over Democratic nominee George McGovern, winning every state except Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. Despite that top-of-the-ticket romp, Democrats maintained control of the House and Senate — voters elected 17 senators from a different political party than the one they supported for president, according to the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. That includes Republican Sen. Edward Brooke of Massachusetts, who crushed his Democratic foe even as his home state bucked Nixon. Ticket splitting began to fall off throughout the 1990s and into the 2000s, with the practice reaching an all-time low in the 2020 election, when only 7.1 percent of all voters cast different party ballots for the Senate and the presidency. In 2016, not one state voted for a different party for their senator than their pick for president. In 2020, GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine was the only senator to win while their state backed the presidential candidate of an opposing party. Gary Jacobson, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, said that the few Senate candidates — like Collins — who can survive in an era of straight-ticket voting tend to be well-entrenched incumbents who have strong local reputations, typically in smaller states where it’s easier for voters to get to know the candidate. Think of red state Democrats like Joe Manchin in West Virginia or Jon Tester in Montana. On the other side of the aisle, former Gov. Larry Hogan’s longshot bid for Senate in solidly Democratic Maryland will test whether or not Biden voters will split their tickets for a Republican Senate candidate. But Jacobson said that the decline of voters splitting tickets and the dying-off of politicians who are able attract votes from both parties was symptomatic of powerful national trends. “These are all part of a large dynamic that includes the way the parties have sorted ideologically and demographically,” he said. “You have the parties becoming ideologically and demographically distinct and different, which is driving the parties further and further apart. That’s also why the incumbent advantage has also started to disappear.” “Partisans are pretty rigid in their voting,” he added. “And once they get into the voting booth, it’s tough to vote against your candidate.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at pschaefer@politico.com.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF ENERGY POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what's next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like energy, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world's best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our energy reporting team—including Ben Lefebvre, Alex Guillen and Kelsey Tamborrino—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of energy policy and the energy industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | IN DELIBERATIONS — The judge has concluded his instructions to the jury, who are now deliberating former President Donald Trump’s fate in the case. A jury’s note that arrived in the afternoon asked to review four pieces of testimony: David Pecker’s testimony regarding his phone conversation with Trump while Pecker was in an investor meeting; Pecker’s testimony about his decision not to finalize and fund the assignment of Karen McDougal’s life rights; Pecker’s testimony about the August 2015 Trump Tower meeting; and Michael Cohen’s testimony about that same meeting. On Tuesday, in his closing argument, prosecutor Joshua Steinglass highlighted that first phone call as evidence that Trump knew about and had direct involvement in the scheme to "catch and kill" negative stories about him during the 2016 campaign. On the call, Steinglass said, Trump and Pecker discussed buying the rights to Karen McDougal’s story, and Trump told him that Michael Cohen would follow up about finalizing the deal. McDougal is the former Playboy model who alleged she had an affair with Trump. GETTING ANTSY — The crowd in Collect Pond Park across from the Manhattan courthouse has grown more restless since jury deliberations began in Donald Trump’s hush money trial. It’s also gotten bigger. Small skirmishes broke out today as Trump supporters and critics picked verbal fights with each other while jurors inside the court weighed Trump’s fate. The jury has been deliberating since around 11:30 a.m.
| | — Alito rebuffs critics over flag controversy, says he won’t recuse from Jan. 6 cases: Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has rejected calls for him to recuse from a pending case involving former President Donald Trump and others related to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, rebuffing critics who said that two controversial flags flown at his homes violated judicial ethics. In letters sent to lawmakers today, Alito said his wife was responsible for flying the American flag upside down for a time in 2021 at their Virginia home and for flying a Revolutionary War-era flag some associate with Christian Nationalism at their New Jersey shore home last year. — Top Biden aides signal openness to letting Ukraine strike Russia with U.S. weapons: Two senior Biden administration officials today opened the door to allowing Ukraine to use American-donated weapons to strike inside Russia. The move, if made, would come as European allies, lawmakers and Ukrainian officials exert pressure on the White House to lift the restrictions, and as Russia has made major advances on the battlefield. It also suggests that President Joe Biden and his team are increasingly worried about Kyiv’s ability to fend off Russia’s attacks, especially its latest advance in Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signaled the possible change during a visit to Moldova when pressed by reporters. — Netanyahu blasts Biden admin for rejecting GOP effort to sanction ICC: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he’s “surprised and disappointed” that the Biden administration won’t support sanctions on a war crimes court seeking his arrest. The White House on Tuesday said it would reject the Republican-led congressional effort to reprimand the International Criminal Court after its chief prosecutor filed arrest warrants for Netanyahu, War Cabinet member Yoav Gallant and Hamas leaders. That reversed a previous signal from Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who last week told lawmakers the court’s move was a “profoundly wrong-headed decision” and the administration would work with Congress on potentially imposing sanctions.
| | | | BIDEN UNLEASHED — President Joe Biden tore into Donald Trump over his record on race today, targeting the former president for his past comments before a crowd of Black voters in Philadelphia. “What would’ve happened if Black Americans had stormed the Capitol? I don’t think he’d be talking about pardons,” Biden said. “This is the same guy who wanted to tear gas you as you peacefully protested George Floyd’s murder. It’s the same guy who still calls the ‘Central Park Five’ guilty, even though they were exonerated. He’s that landlord who denies housing applications because of the color of your skin. He’s that guy who won’t say Black lives matter and invokes neo-Nazi, Third Reich terms.” HALEY ABROAD — Nikki Haley, the former Republican presidential candidate and U.N. ambassador during the Trump administration, wrote “Finish them” on an artillery shell in Israel this week, reports the New York Times. Danny Danon, Israel’s former ambassador to the United Nations and a member of the Israeli Parliament, shared a photo on social media on Tuesday showing Ms. Haley signing the shell. Her visit came just days after Israel drew international condemnation for a strike that killed dozens of Gazan civilians in a camp for displaced Palestinians. “This is what my friend, the former ambassador Nikki Haley, wrote today on a shell during a visit to an artillery post on the northern border,” Mr. Danon wrote, declaring of the Israeli military, “The I.D.F. will win!” Ms. Haley finished her inscription with a note that “America loves Israel always,” using a heart emoji for “loves.” PENNSYLVANIA YAWNS — President Joe Biden’s rally with Vice President Kamala Harris at Girard College marked his fifth trip to the Philadelphia area this year and his seventh to Pennsylvania in 2024 alone. The campaign has opened two dozen field offices, and the president and his allies have poured tens of millions into the state, outspending former President Donald Trump and his backers there more than 4 to 1. And today, speaking at a majority Black school in the state’s largest city, Biden and Harris used a rare dual campaign appearance to launch an organizing effort to win over Black voters, a critical constituency. If it’s registering, there’s little sign of it yet. DEBATE DRAMA — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. filed an official complaint about being excluded from the first presidential debate. Kennedy alleged that the campaigns for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as the network host CNN together “colluded” to keep him off the Atlanta stage on June 27, in a letter sent to the Federal Election Commission’s acting general counsel. The letter from Kennedy, sent on campaign letterhead, argues that CNN is in violation of the Federal Election Campaign Act because of how the network came to set its debate criteria.
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People stand by a bus in Rome on Tuesday with an advertisement for the Fratelli d'Italia party. | Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images | FAR RIGHT RISE — Members of Europe’s Parliament from far-right parties look set to outnumber those from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party after next week’s election, polls now suggest. That doesn’t mean the EPP will be beaten into second place, because the fragmented parties on the extreme right will almost certainly be unable to unite. It does, however, reflect Europe’s shift to the right and will bring a new political complexion to the next Parliament. According to a Poll of Polls projection of the incoming legislature, the EPP would win 170 seats if the election were held now. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) — the two main right-wing groupings — are on course for a total of 144 seats. There are also other parties in the mix, such as Alternative for Germany, which is projected to win 16 seats, and Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, which is in line for 10. France’s Reconquest is polling at five seats, Poland’s Konfederacja at six and Bulgaria’s pro-Kremlin Revival party at three. That takes the projection of far-right MEPs to 184.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | | | | LOVE LOST — Think of a quintessential European vacation — what do you picture? Odds are high that if you’re an American, you are imagining some slice of Italy. For centuries, Italians have welcomed tourists — the industry has helped to boost their economy and export their culture around the world. But in recent years, the tourism boom in the country has gotten so crazy that locals have had to impose restrictions: no selfies in Portofino, no large cruise ships in Venice, no tour buses on the seafront in Amalfi, and more. The new rules speak to a country that’s overburdened and is pushing back. For the BBC, Anna Bressanin reports on Italy falling out of love with its tourists.
| | |  On this date in 1960: Residents carry their belongings along a street in the port city of Puerto Montt, Chile, in the aftermath of an earthquake that demolished many of the buildings. The 1960 earthquake in Chile was the most powerful ever recorded, measuring somewhere between 9.4 and 9.6 on the moment magnitude scale. | AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
