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By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we share unsolicited advice for Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's upcoming meeting with his Chinese counterpart, get Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell's hot take on China's support for Russia's war machine and probe a U.N. official's call for the U.S. to lift its Xinjiang-related Chinese sanctions. And we profile a book that warns that Beijing's decades of red-hot economic growth are over and that "China's future is not bright."
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
Austin-Dong Jun to share a Shangri-La moment
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U.S. Defense Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (left) and his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun (right). | Photos by Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images and the Singapore Defense Ministry |
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's long wait for a face-to-face meeting with his Chinese counterpart is over. The Pentagon announced last week that Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun would convene sometime during the three-day Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore which opens on Friday. The Austin-Dong meeting will occur that same day, Pentagon spokesperson Martin Meiners told China Watcher.
Long time, no see. It will be Austin's first in-person encounter with a Chinese counterpart since June 2022, when he sat down with China's then-Defense Minister Wei Fenghe. Austin and Dong had an introductory video call last month, but a face-to-face meeting may allow for meatier discussion.
Low expectations. Breakthroughs are unlikely. "The level of trust between the two military and wider national security establishments is at historic lows," argued Lyle Goldstein, founder of the U.S. Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute and currently director of Asia engagement at the Washington-based Defense Priorities think tank.
China Watcher asked four U.S. military experts what Austin should say to Dong. Here's what we heard:
Cool it in the South China Sea. Austin should tell Dong that "if a Filipino sailor or Marine is seriously injured or killed due to People's Liberation Army or China Coast Guard activity, the U.S. will be forced to respond," said Ivan Kanapathy, former director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the National Security Council from 2018 to 2021. Such an incident would likely compel Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to invoke the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty "to quell public discontent at home," Kanapathy said.
Keep the (military) lines of communication open. The Biden administration spent much of 2023 cajoling Beijing to resume military-to-military dialogues that China froze in 2022 in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan trip. Austin plans to urge Dong to agree to "theater-level calls" between the chief of Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Samuel Paparo, and his Chinese counterparts, the Pentagon's Meiners said. Austin should push Dong "to commit to maintaining open channels of communication in times of crisis, and not use communication mechanisms as a political tool to be turned on and off when the Chinese side is displeased with U.S. actions," said Lyle Morris, former country director for China in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, now a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis.
Don't involve Russia in Taiwan. Beijing is seeking to expand its "no limits" partnership with Russia to include cooperation in a potential conflict with Taiwan, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told lawmakers earlier this month. Austin should tell Dong that "any scenario where Russia joins Chinese military forces in a conflict would be met with an overwhelming and immediate" U.S. response, said Mackenzie Eaglen, former staffer on the 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission and currently a defense strategy expert at the American Enterprise Institute.
One of the experts we talked to also stressed that Austin might be best off letting Dong do most of the talking. "Austin should let the Chinese make the first move," said Dean Cheng, a former analyst at the congressional Office of Technology Assessment and an expert on China's military industrial complex. The Biden administration has "repeatedly signaled that we are rather anxious, even desperate, to have dialogue with the Chinese which then puts the Chinese in the position of being the one who is granting a favor, and we are in the position of the supplicant," Cheng said.
Kurt Campbell warns EU on China "surreptitiously abetting" the Ukraine war
Kurt Campbell — the deputy secretary of State who until recently served as President Joe Biden's "Indo-Pacific czar" — this week hand-delivered a warning to European diplomats in NATO about China's close ties with Russia with "as much detail and specifics as possible."
"It is fair to say that China's general goal has been not only to support Russia — in our view, to the hilt — but to downplay that publicly and try to maintain normal diplomatic and commercial ties with Europe," Campbell told a small group of journalists including Stuart during a visit to Brussels on Wednesday.
"And I think what we were heartened by yesterday in the discussions at the NAC [North Atlantic Council, the main political decision-making body within NATO] was how many European countries spoke up clearly, with the view that it would be impossible to maintain a normal relationship with China if, at the same time, the Chinese were surreptitiously abetting the most destabilizing war in Europe since the Second World War," Campbell said. Stuart has more details in his story from Wednesday.
Some extra tidbits for loyal China Watcher readers: Campbell also shot down China's repeated claims that the U.S. was trying to create an Asian NATO. Citing AUKUS and Quad as U.S. engagement efforts aimed at specific countries, Campbell added: "I do not believe, in the current context, there is the belief that some sort of larger organization is either feasible or possible in the Indo-Pacific."
On Taiwan, Campbell noted President Lai Ching-te's inauguration speech in which Lai mentioned his appeal for dialogues with Beijing.
"We encourage peaceful dialogue," Campbell said. "We note that in many of the references that President Lai made in his speech, was a desire for [an] open dialogue with the PRC about how best to go forward." He criticized recent actions by the Chinese military around Taiwan as "provocative."
While the EU has done significantly less than the U.S. in ensuring Taiwan's security, "almost every country in Europe is determined to see that the situation of peace and stability pertain," he said.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— BRACE FOR FRESH PANDA-MONIUM: The White House and the Smithsonian Institution confirmed on Wednesday that China will resume its panda loan program with the National Zoo in Washington. "Within this year we'll once again welcome a new pair of giant pandas to the Smithsonian's National Zoo," Smithsonian secretary Lonnie Bunch III said in a video announcement that included first lady Jill Biden. The zoo returned the three pandas previously housed at the zoo —a top draw for visitors — to China in November when a bilateral research and breeding program agreement elapsed.
— TAIWAN CODELS GALORE: Taiwan welcomed its second bipartisan congressional delegation this week of U.S. lawmakers expressing support for newly inaugurated President Lai. The CODEL, led by Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), arrived Tuesday and aims to "to underscore and reaffirm our nation's strong bipartisan support for the Taiwanese people," said a statement released Tuesday by Sullivan's office. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) landed in Taiwan on Sunday with a delegation that included Reps. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) and Young Kim (R-Calif.). The CODELS "deepen the 'rock-solid' all-round partnership between Taiwan and the United States," Taiwan's Foreign Ministry said Wednesday.
— CHINA COMMITTEE CHAIR SLAMS HK ARRESTS: The chair of the House Select Committee on China, John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), has lashed out at the first arrests by Hong Kong police under the territory's new Article 23 security law enacted in March. Police arrested six people on Tuesday for social media posts that authorities say "incited hatred" against the Chinese government, the BBC reported. Those arrests reflect the Hong Kong government's "brutal oppression of democracy and rule of law," and underscored the need for U.S. sanctions against the officials responsible for them, Moolenar told China Watcher. The Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in Washington didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
EU PLANS MEETING WITH NEW CHINESE DEFENSE MINISTER: The EU's foreign and security policy chief, Josep Borrell, is also traveling to Singapore for Shangri-La, and is expected to meet China's new Defense Minister Dong Jun, according to two diplomats with knowledge of the plan. It would be Dong's first direct encounter with European officials, amid the EU's concern over the People's Liberation Army's recent escalation in the Taiwan Strait in response to new President Lai's inauguration.
EUROPE CEOs TURN NEGATIVE ON CHINA: Business leaders in Europe are pessimistic about the future of EU-China relations, according to a survey published Wednesday. A majority of business people polled (54 percent) by the European Round Table for Industry, a lobby group for Europe's businesses, say they believe that relations with China are set to worsen in the next three years, while only 7 percent expect an improvement, according to the survey. Jacob Wallenberg, who leads the group's committee on trade and market access, said: "The current climate of escalation between the U.S. and China is adding new layers of complexity to global trade. Europe should have a voice of its own in trade matters striving for level playing fields and European competitiveness."
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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— LET'S CRUISE CAMBODIA'S XI JINPING BOULEVARD: The Cambodian government has rewarded China's funding for the capital Phnom Penh's 40-mile Third Ring Road by renaming it Xi Jinping Boulevard on Tuesday. The road construction, which cost $273 million and took five years to build, is one of Xi's signature Belt and Road international infrastructure investment projects, the Khmer Times reports.
— BEIJING: 'POLARIZED' U.S. HARMS HUMAN RIGHTS: The Chinese government responded to the State Department's annual assessment of human rights in China with its usual counter-report on U.S. rights abuses on Wednesday. Rights in the U.S. are "are increasingly polarized. … The majority of ordinary people are increasingly marginalized, with their basic rights and freedoms being disregarded," the report said. The State Department declined to comment.
**Will the far-right be able to influence Europe’s policy agenda post elections? Find out at POLITICO Live’s 2024 EU election hangover brunch on June 10, where political experts will discuss the fresh results and how the next legislature will look over coffee and croissants. Last seats available now!**
THREE MINUTES WITH …
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The United Nations special rapporteur on the negative impact of coercive measures, Alena Douhan, returned from a 12-day investigative trip to China this month urging the suspension of "all unilateral sanctions applied to China, Chinese nationals and companies without authorization of the U.N. Security Council." Douhan's preliminary findings assert that the impact of U.S. sanctions — including those linked to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act — have harmed Chinese people's rights to work and to get an education.Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
Your report doesn't mention that the impacts of the "unilateral sanctions" you investigated were a U.S. response to alleged genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang. Explain.
It is outside of my mandate to address the issues which have been cited concerning the treatment of Uyghurs as the grounds for the implementation of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. I was not intending to assess the human rights situation in China in general, I was mostly asking about the impacts on the functioning of companies and their personnel after sanctions have been implemented.
You found no evidence of either crimes against humanity or genocide against Uyghurs despite the fact that the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights concluded in 2022 that Beijing's policies in Xinjiang "may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity." Explain.
I absolutely do not want to get into any conflict with the findings of the U.N. Office and especially with the High Commissioner. But for my purposes and for my own mandate, I was not able to identify valid grounds which could allow for sanctions imposed by the United States. To be able to impose collective countermeasures, it's necessary to identify that the level of human rights violations reach crimes against humanity or genocide, and that’s what I haven't seen in China.
Recent U.S. media reporting has suggested that the Chinese government's $200,000 donation to support your work gives Beijing — which has long complained about "unilateral sanctions" — undue influence. Is that fair?
The rhetoric of sanctions is so politicized and so presented in black and white — if you follow my Twitter account, you'll see that there is a pretty high level of hate speech right now. They're accusing me — starting from China financially supporting the mandate and of me being Belarusian — of being not fair because of that. Unfortunately, when people read something like that they sincerely or non-sincerely believe that China gives money to me. And it's necessary to understand that special rapporteurs do not get any salary or any money assigned to the mandate. So I did not receive this money at all.
HEADLINES
Bloomberg: Expulsions of Chinese students spread confusion from Yale to UVA
Associated Press: China has threatened trade with some countries after feuds. They're calling 'the firm' for help
Documented: The Chinese democracy movement reckons with its #MeToo moment
Channel News Asia: From China to U.S.: The illegal trek Chinese migrants are making to America
HEADS UP
—HERE COMES CHINA'S VICE FOREIGN MINISTER: China's Vice Foreign Minister, Ma Zhaoxu, will meet today with Kurt Campbell as part of Biden administration efforts "to maintain open channels of communication … [and] prevent miscalculation and unintended conflict," said a State Department spokesperson granted anonymity because the person wasn't authorized to speak about high-level diplomatic meetings. Ma will also meet with "representatives of various sectors" before returning to Beijing on Sunday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
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Emily Blundell Owens |
The Book: Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy
The Author: Anne Stevenson-Yang is the founder and research director of J Capital Research with decades of experience in China as an investor, industry analyst and trade advocate.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
People who thought that China's opening and reform period indicated a move toward capitalism and democracy were wrong.
China was and is a Leninist state supremely uninterested in democracy. The party's power is more important than the wealth and betterment of the people.
Should the West never have supported the economic shift? Not at all: China became a lot freer and more flexible after 1979. We can't dictate how countries are going to manage themselves politically.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
That predictions based on economic formulas don't tell you that much. The political economy of a place as big and diverse as China has a "butterfly in Beijing" dynamic: What moves the whole system is impossible to predict, and small, random events can make a huge difference.
What advice would you give to U.S. businesspeople who believe that the Chinese government is moving toward a market-based economy with a level playing field for foreign firms?
Be skeptical about everything.
I'm not sure that what China's senior leadership says about the future is very interesting. Believe in what you can see and the data your own team can pull together. If you use China for manufacturing, spread risk to other sourcing destinations. China’s future is not bright.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt and digital producers Tara Gnewikow and Fiona Lally. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at pkine@politico.com and slau@politico.eu.
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