| Texas primary runoffs are tonight — and they are all about revenge. Texas Republican incumbents are fighting to keep their seats tonight, as many face far-right challengers that have already held them under 50 percent during the March primary. The results tonight will be an indicator of how strong a hold the right-wing faction has on the Texas GOP, as older, more business-minded incumbents face more conservative challengers down the ballot — especially as many incumbents have lost the support of the state party. And between Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton hoping to unseat anyone who has betrayed them, to Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) meddling in the state to get more allies in Congress, there’s plenty of big names invested in tonight’s results. Abbott and Paxton are playing heavily in state legislative primaries — with Abbott looking to rid himself of Republicans who defied him on school vouchers, and Paxton vowing to unseat the Republicans who voted to impeach him. Here are the biggest revenge-fueled runoffs we’re watching: — Gaetz takes Texas: Rep. Tony Gonzales is facing Republican challenger Brandon Herrera, a pro-gun social media star with the backing of Gaetz and other far-right conservatives like House Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good (R-Va.). The race will be to represent a West Texas border district that Gonzales won in 2020 and has held onto after redistricting made the seat redder. In the March primary, Gonzales won 45 percent of the vote, while Herrera got 25 percent. But the test tonight is whether Gonzales can stay in office after making enemies both in Washington and Texas. Gonzales was censured by the Texas GOP for backing gun control legislation following the Uvalde shooting, and has broken with the party on other issues such as same-sex marriage. It’s no coincidence that Gonzales is facing Herrera, known as “the AK Guy” due to his love of assault rifles. But Herrera carries his own issues, including mocking the Holocaust and veteran suicides. He also has joked about Trump’s son Barron Trump. (The former president has been neutral in the tough runoff.) Gonzales has the support of GOP leadership in the House, largely out of fear that Herrera could become another headache for them, like many other right-wing rebels — or even worse, cost Republicans a seat in November they so desperately need to hold onto the majority. And if Herrera does pull off a win — it could signal to other moderate Republicans in the House that Gaetz could come for them next. — Two other House GOP primaries: In Texas’s red 12th district, the primary runoff to replace veteran Rep. Kay Granger has state Rep. Craig Goldman against John O’Shea. The race is pitting some of the most powerful Republicans in the state against each other. Granger and Abbott are backing Goldman, the chair of the Republican caucus in the Texas House. But O’Shea has the support of Paxton after Goldman voted to impeach the attorney general. And in Texas’ 28th district, retired Navy officer Jay Furman and rancher Lazaro Garza are competing to run against the recently indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar. The moderate Democrat, who says he is innocent, has been accused of accepting bribes to help Azerbaijan — making House Republicans hopeful they can take back the seat. — Speaker problems: Texas state House Speaker Dade Phelan is up against Dave Covey again in a runoff, after a neck and neck battle in March. Phelan only won 43 percent of the vote to Covey’s 46 percent. While Phelan is the incumbent, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and former President Donald Trump have all backed Covey. But a win for Covey will be the biggest win for Paxton, who has targeted the speaker after Paxton was impeached — and ultimately acquitted by the state Senate. Phelan has now lost the backing of the state party that once brought him to the top position in the Texas House, even as the state establishment rallies to him. He is one of the first Texas state House speakers in decades to be forced into a runoff — and could be one of the first to lose a primary, which could redirect the whole agenda of the Texas House. Happy Monday! Mia McCarthy here filling in for Madison for the next two weeks. Send all of your polling, campaign and election news my way: mmccarthy@politico.com and @Reporter_Mia. (Madison will be back June 10 but reach her at: mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.) Days until the Texas runoffs: TODAY Days until the Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 7 Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 14 Days until the Oklahoma and Virginia primaries: 21 Days until the Colorado, New York and Utah primaries: 28 Days until the Republican National Convention: 48 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 83 Days until the 2024 election: 161
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