Trump’s guilty. Republicans could still win in California.

Presented by The Climate Center Action Fund: Inside the Golden State political arena
May 31, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Melanie Mason, Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner

Presented by The Climate Center Action Fund

Former President Donald Trump speaks at the California Republican Party Convention.

There’s no guarantee Donald Trump's legal troubles will sink California Republicans down-ballot. | Jae C. Hong/AP

THE BUZZ — California Democrats indulged in some schadenfreude over Donald Trump’s guilty verdicts yesterday, but when it comes to pivotal House races, they shouldn’t be spiking the football. There’s no guarantee that his legal troubles will sink California Republicans down-ballot.

Yes, Trump is toxic in California, even in the battleground districts that could determine control of the House. Of the six most competitive swing seats in the state, five of them went for Biden in 2020 — four of them by double digits.

But even as voters in those districts picked a Democrat for president, they weren’t necessarily sticking with the party down ballot.

GOP Rep. David Valadao, for example, eked out a win in his Central Valley seat in 2020, even when that district backed Biden by 11 points. His seat tilted even more Democratic after redistricting, yet Democrats were unable to oust him in 2022.

Orange County Rep. Michelle Steel is another Republican who was able to topple a Democrat in 2020, even as the district narrowly sided with Biden, and held her seat in 2022.

Democrats are quick to point out that the 2020 election is an imperfect historical guide. The party opted out of traditional field campaigning because of the Covid-19 pandemic, and down ballot contests like House races were more likely to be affected by the freeze in organizing efforts.

And certainly Trump has spelled trouble for Republican House candidates in the past — the historic blue wave of 2018 shows that California voters have been more than willing to blame the GOP writ large for their frustrations with the MAGA leader.

Few would argue it’s good for the GOP to have a presidential nominee who has just been found guilty of 34 felony counts. The key question is whether voters will satisfy their anti-Trump itch by voting against him in the presidential race while keeping an open mind about Republicans in other races.

Republicans in swing seats have largely stayed silent about the verdict. Those who have commented, such as Rep. Ken Calvert, have echoed Trump’s complaint that the trial was a partisan frame-up — an argument that just reinforces Democrats’ message that Republicans are doing Trump’s bidding.

For the most part, Rob Stutzman, a Republican Trump critic, said he expected GOP House contenders to “stay away” from the former president’s legal troubles. “Probably not much of a factor by [November] in House races,” he said.

The onus is on Democrats to keep the issue fresh in voters’ minds and obliterate any distinctions between Trump and the individual GOP members.

Shortly after the verdict, Democratic House candidate Will Rollins tweeted a video clip of his opponent, GOP Rep. Ken Calvert, previously urging Republicans to rally around Trump. Rollins added, “We deserve a representative who cares more about the 750,000 of us in Riverside County than one convicted felon in New York.”

Coby Eiss, Rollins’ campaign manager, predicted the verdict could help Democrats flip Calvert’s seat due to the larger number of independent voters in the inland district that is sandwiched between Los Angeles and San Diego. He argued voters want the government to look “more like what you see on CSPAN, less like a soap opera.”

Other Democrats, like Dave Min, who is running to replace Rep. Katie Porter in a hotly-competitive Orange County seat, tried to use Trump’s court spectacle to dredge up their opponents’ lesser-known baggage.

“My Republican opponent Scott Baugh is now officially supporting a convicted felon,” Min said, adding a dig about Baugh’s own brush with the law — a political misconduct case for which he paid $47,900 in civil fines. (Min has notoriously also had legal woes stemming from his drunken driving arrest that dominated his primary campaign.)

One hope for Democrats is the frenzy over Trump’s convictions overwhelms GOP messaging hitting Biden on vulnerable issues like the economy and the border.

“Good luck running as the party of law and order with a convicted felon as your party’s standard bearer,” said Orrin Evans, an LA-based Democratic consultant working for Min and Derek Tran, who is also running in a swing Orange County seat against Steel. “If Republicans want to run on public safety - they have a pretty big messenger issue.”

GOOD MORNING. Happy Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

 

A message from The Climate Center Action Fund:

Governor Newsom and legislators can do more to protect clean air by ending billion-dollar tax breaks to the oil industry. The governor is fighting to end price gouging and took a small step toward taking Big Oil off the state’s payroll, now we must go all the way. With a huge deficit putting critical climate and clean air programs at risk, ending fossil fuel subsidies ensures California invests in people, not oil and gas industry profits. Learn more.

 
STATE CAPITOL

Resident Alex Smariga walks past a pride flag while returning from a physical therapy session at Stonewall Gardens, a LGBTQ+ assisted living facility, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2023, in Palm Springs, Calif.

The bill would prohibit schools from implementing forced outing policies for transgender youth. | Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP Photo

TRANS YOUTH — The California Senate voted Thursday to send a bill on transgender youth to the Appropriations Committee, bypassing a hearing in the Health Committee despite protests from Republican opponents.

Democratic Assemblymember Chris Ward’s Assembly Bill 1955 would prohibit schools from implementing forced outing policies for transgender youth — a practice that’s been embraced by some California school districts which argue parents should be notified if a student starts using a different name or pronouns. LGBTQ advocates have decried such policies as potentially harmful to kids whose parents aren’t accepting of their gender identities.

Ward’s proposal was introduced in the Senate by gutting and amending another bill that was already in the Education Committee. That original bill had been referred to the Health Committee, but after the contents changed it no longer merited referral to health.

Republican state Sen. Scott Wilk had tried to interrupt the proceedings by making a motion to send it to the Judiciary Committee, which was quickly rejected by the majority party.

 

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MEDIA MATTERS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: WSJ LAYOFFS HIT — In the most recent round of job cuts at the Wall Street Journal, the paper laid off three reporters who were based in California, two people familiar with the matter told POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman. Breaking news reporter Suryatapa Bhattacharya, U.S. news reporter Talal Ansari and Christine Mai-Duc, who covered state politics, housing and the economy, were among the eight Journal union members who lost their jobs Thursday.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY

BONDING TIME — If you’re interested in the climate bond, look no further. Our climate team got ahold of the Assembly and Senate's draft spending plans, and they offer insight into each chamber’s priorities. Read more in last night’s California Climate.

Top Talkers

Garry Tan, the CEO of startup accelerator YCombinator, has made waves in San Francisco politics, helping to oust some of the city’s most liberal politicians in favor of more centrist Democrats. Now, the tech-investor-turned-political-changemaker is turning his attention to Washington. For more on Tan’s Washington ambitions, listen to today’s POLITICO Tech podcast with host Steven Overly and read the story by POLITICO’s Brendan Bordelon and Josh Sisco. 

— Efforts to legalize magic mushrooms in California keep failing, including proposals to allow for therapeutic use as well as outright decriminalization. But state Sen. Scott Wiener says the defeat of his latest psychedelics bill was more about money than drug politics. (San Francisco Chronicle)

AROUND THE STATE

– Home prices in San Francisco and San Jose are soaring — the regions are among the top five fastest-growing markets in the country, according to a Zillow report. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— A Central Valley city was among the top cities in the country with the most population growth from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023. Lathrop landed the 10th place spot for its nearly 14 percent population boom. (The Modesto Bee)

— Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil helped trigger an investigation by Attorney General Rob Bonta’s office over the authorization of $5 million in state funding for neighborhood improvements in South Modesto. She has yet to disclose why. (The Modesto Bee)

— Roughly 3,000 UC Davis and University of Oregon students trashed Lake Shasta over the weekend, according to the U.S. Forest Service. The service cannot retrieve some of the bottles, cans and wrappers until the lake’s water level recedes in late June or early July. (SFGate)

 

A message from The Climate Center Action Fund:

While the state struggles to balance its budget and risks cutting billions from clean air programs that save lives, why are taxpayers still responsible for billions in oil and gas industry handouts? Over 70 groups have urged Governor Newsom and the legislature to end this practice. Fossil fuel corporations like Chevron don’t need it. That money should instead go to cutting pollution from cars, trucks and buildings, and getting more clean energy on the grid. Programs that currently support these goals are on the chopping block. Before we even think about cutting funding for lifesaving programs, we need the Governor and the legislature to end subsidies and tax breaks for polluters! Learn more.

 
PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: ENTER ROGER MURTAUGH — Actor Danny Glover was at the California Capitol on Thursday to testify against proposed budget cuts to arts programs. Glover, who’s perhaps best known for playing detective Roger Murtaugh in the “Lethal Weapon” film franchise, was seen mingling with lawmakers on the Assembly floor.

PEOPLE MOVES — David Zhang is now chief development officer at the Foundation for America’s Public Lands. He previously led fundraising efforts for the Trust for Public Lands in California.

BIRTHDAYS — Adriana Sanchez-Ochoa of NextGen Policy … Megan Imperial, campaign manager for Jesse Arreguin … former Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) … Sarah HeckSaul LevineVidhya Murugesan Kelsey Kats Zofia Rawner

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form. Disclaimer: All information will be verified.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com.

 

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