THE BUZZ — California Democrats indulged in some schadenfreude over Donald Trump’s guilty verdicts yesterday, but when it comes to pivotal House races, they shouldn’t be spiking the football. There’s no guarantee that his legal troubles will sink California Republicans down-ballot. Yes, Trump is toxic in California, even in the battleground districts that could determine control of the House. Of the six most competitive swing seats in the state, five of them went for Biden in 2020 — four of them by double digits. But even as voters in those districts picked a Democrat for president, they weren’t necessarily sticking with the party down ballot. GOP Rep. David Valadao, for example, eked out a win in his Central Valley seat in 2020, even when that district backed Biden by 11 points. His seat tilted even more Democratic after redistricting, yet Democrats were unable to oust him in 2022. Orange County Rep. Michelle Steel is another Republican who was able to topple a Democrat in 2020, even as the district narrowly sided with Biden, and held her seat in 2022. Democrats are quick to point out that the 2020 election is an imperfect historical guide. The party opted out of traditional field campaigning because of the Covid-19 pandemic, and down ballot contests like House races were more likely to be affected by the freeze in organizing efforts. And certainly Trump has spelled trouble for Republican House candidates in the past — the historic blue wave of 2018 shows that California voters have been more than willing to blame the GOP writ large for their frustrations with the MAGA leader. Few would argue it’s good for the GOP to have a presidential nominee who has just been found guilty of 34 felony counts. The key question is whether voters will satisfy their anti-Trump itch by voting against him in the presidential race while keeping an open mind about Republicans in other races. Republicans in swing seats have largely stayed silent about the verdict. Those who have commented, such as Rep. Ken Calvert, have echoed Trump’s complaint that the trial was a partisan frame-up — an argument that just reinforces Democrats’ message that Republicans are doing Trump’s bidding. For the most part, Rob Stutzman, a Republican Trump critic, said he expected GOP House contenders to “stay away” from the former president’s legal troubles. “Probably not much of a factor by [November] in House races,” he said. The onus is on Democrats to keep the issue fresh in voters’ minds and obliterate any distinctions between Trump and the individual GOP members. Shortly after the verdict, Democratic House candidate Will Rollins tweeted a video clip of his opponent, GOP Rep. Ken Calvert, previously urging Republicans to rally around Trump. Rollins added, “We deserve a representative who cares more about the 750,000 of us in Riverside County than one convicted felon in New York.” Coby Eiss, Rollins’ campaign manager, predicted the verdict could help Democrats flip Calvert’s seat due to the larger number of independent voters in the inland district that is sandwiched between Los Angeles and San Diego. He argued voters want the government to look “more like what you see on CSPAN, less like a soap opera.” Other Democrats, like Dave Min, who is running to replace Rep. Katie Porter in a hotly-competitive Orange County seat, tried to use Trump’s court spectacle to dredge up their opponents’ lesser-known baggage. “My Republican opponent Scott Baugh is now officially supporting a convicted felon,” Min said, adding a dig about Baugh’s own brush with the law — a political misconduct case for which he paid $47,900 in civil fines. (Min has notoriously also had legal woes stemming from his drunken driving arrest that dominated his primary campaign.) One hope for Democrats is the frenzy over Trump’s convictions overwhelms GOP messaging hitting Biden on vulnerable issues like the economy and the border. “Good luck running as the party of law and order with a convicted felon as your party’s standard bearer,” said Orrin Evans, an LA-based Democratic consultant working for Min and Derek Tran, who is also running in a swing Orange County seat against Steel. “If Republicans want to run on public safety - they have a pretty big messenger issue.” GOOD MORNING. Happy Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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