BATTLE OF THE INSIDERS — Canada’s political class will be fixated today on the race for what should be one of the safest seats for the Liberals in the country. Voters will cast their ballots in the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s, a high-stakes contest pitting CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s former chief of staff LESLIE CHURCH against Conservative Party candidate DON STEWART, a former associate of PIERRE POILIEVRE’s top adviser JENNI BYRNE. — Media allergy: Stewart has declined to talk to Canadian Press,CTV News,CBC News and others. Church has meanwhile had to admit to facing voters tired of the PM. — Political weathervane: The normal caveats about not reading too much into by-elections don’t apply to this one, where get-out-the-vote efforts will matter. It could mark a turning point, even with the Liberals still expected to win. A surprise upset in what’s supposed to be a safe urban district for the Grits, Cabinet-minister-turned-ambassador CAROLYN BENNETT’s former riding, would send shockwaves through the Liberal Party. — The big bad story: Rubicon Strategy’s DAVID HERLE said on CTV’s “Question Period” that a loss would solidify the narrative the government is barreling toward defeat, meaning everything they do from here out will be “judged as a political exercise to resuscitate themselves.” — Big moment for newspapers: Some headlines pin the the prime minister’s career on it, suggesting a Conservative victory would heap pressure on JUSTIN TRUDEAU to step aside to avoid a blowout in 2025, since losing the party haven would suggest no path for them back to government. — But also: Political observers are keeping their eyes peeled for how much the margins change given the bad polling climate for the Liberals. — Blood in the water: Former Conservative campaign manager FRED DELOREY said on CBC’s Political Pulse Panel that “if it’s within 10 points, maybe there’ll be some Liberal spin on this, but I think it’ll be tough to keep this all contained.” — Numbers check: In the last election, Bennett walked away with 49 percent of the vote. 338 Canada places the riding as Liberal leaning, with the odds heavily favoring the party — but the popular vote projection has the Conservatives right on their heels. — Call the calvary: On the ground, campaigners for all parties faced a real slog due to a heat wave. Liberal efforts to bolster support have brought a steady stream of starpower to the riding to door knock and work the phones, including visits in recent days by such Cabinet ministers as MARCI IEN, ANITA ANAND, SEAMUS O’REGAN, SEAN FRASER, STEVEN GUILBEAULT, AHMED HUSSEN and HARJIT SAJJAN. Freeland was out campaigning over the weekend and, at a news conference Sunday, ragged the puck when responding to pointed questions from reporters about the by-election stakes. For the blue team, BEN MULRONEY most recently spotted dropping by to help Stewart. Others who have lent a hand over the campaign include ANDREW SCHEER, ANNA ROBERTS, MELISSA LANTSMAN — and Poilievre himself swung by way back in May, but did not appear over this past weekend. — Expect delays: Changes to the ballots are expected to slow down the process of voting and counting the results. Thanks to electoral reform activists, there are 84 candidates on the novelty-sized ballot — the longest and largest one ever (30 x 90 cm), which lists all the names on the front. Those ballots will still have to be marked, folded and later counted — but the ballot boxes will be the same size. Polls close tonight at 8:30 p.m. | 
