| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | Presented by The American Petroleum Institute | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | GOP VIBE CHECK — “Trump is on a fundraising blitz. But Republicans are still nervous about ‘very dicey’ November,” by Adam Wren: “[O]utside of the money race, a series of other developments in recent days have left even Republicans with the impression that November may not be quite as good for the GOP as it once seemed.”
|  Abortion rights demonstrators rally to mark the anniversary of the Supreme Court ruling in the Dobbs v. Women's Health Organization case in Washington, June 24, 2023. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images | THE DOBBS DIVISIONS — Today marks two years since the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. Since then, most national Democrats and Republicans have settled on a message when it comes to abortion policy: Democrats, led by JOE BIDEN, want to restore the protections of Roe at the federal level. Republicans, led by DONALD TRUMP, want to leave abortion policy to the states. But there are rising voices on both the left and the right challenging those consensus views, Alice Miranda Ollstein writes this morning. Alice scoops that a new coalition of abortion-rights groups, including Planned Parenthood, the ACLU and Reproductive Freedom for All, have created Abortion Access Now, which pledges “to spend $100 million to restore federal protections for the procedure and make it more accessible than ever before.” But the group is facing resistance from abortion rights activists who say that just restoring Roe, which legalized abortion through viability, isn’t enough. PAMELA MERRITT of Medical Students for Choice called Roe “a very flawed framework” and accused the new coalition of “leading with compromise.” HAYDEE MORALES of the National Institute for Reproductive Health said the Roe standard is being prioritized “on the backs of Black, Indigenous, other people of color, and all marginalized communities.’” As for the Republican Party, the right is growing agitated with its leaders’ lack of interest in any federal legislation. Many anti-abortion groups, Alice writes, “as well as close Trump allies who drafted a ‘Project 2025’ policy manifesto to guide Trump if he wins, are still pushing for federal restrictions, with the ultimate goal of a national abortion ban.” Related read: “On Dobbs Anniversary, Democrats Look to Make the Court a Campaign Issue,” by NYT’s Nick Corasaniti: “The group, Stand Up America, is kicking off the $1 million campaign on the second anniversary of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision.”
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute: For nearly four years, Americans have faced the pain of high inflation and global conflict. During this week’s presidential debate, voters want to hear how leaders will secure our nation’s energy future and provide relief to consumers and their families.
The American Petroleum Institute’s Policy Roadmap contains five actions policy makers can take today to secure energy leadership, protect consumers and help reduce inflation. Americans deserve answers, starting with the question below. | | | PRIMARY DAY PRIMER (PART I) — Colorado, Utah, and New York hold primaries tomorrow, and while approximately 96.3 percent of the national coverage has focused on the pitched primary battle between Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) and centrist challenger GEORGE LATIMER, there’s a ton of intrigue out West, with national implications in House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. Utah Governor: Will Trump make an election eve endorsement? GOP Gov. SPENCER COX is one of the most prominent Trump critics in statewide office remaining in the Republican Party, and he’s gotten plenty of grief from the conservative grassroots in his state — getting swamped (not atypically for an establishment candidate) at April’s party convention by right-wing election denier PHIL LYMAN. But so far the former president has not endorsed Lyman against Cox, who consistently has one of the highest approval ratings of any governor in America and is favored to easily win tomorrow. The question for Trump is whether he wants to risk his endorsement batting average to send a message to a prominent GOP voice of resistance. Utah Senate: Will Trump’s endorsement matter? Tuesday’s primary will likely decide who will be the successor to retiring Sen. MITT ROMNEY. (Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat from Utah since 1970.) If Utah Republicans want an approximation of the incumbent, they’ll choose Rep. JOHN CURTIS, a former Democrat and ardent environmentalist who voted to accept the results of the 2020 election and who has not endorsed Trump for president. If they want someone more like Sen. MIKE LEE, a Trump ally, the leading option is Riverton Mayor TRENT STAGGS, whom Trump endorsed on the eve of the April convention. That endorsement has not been dispositive, however: Curtis easily outraised Staggs in April and May and is favored to win. UT-03: Does Ukraine matter? This is the open seat to replace Curtis, and it has turned into another Utah scrap between the GOP’s two wings. The MAGA wing is represented by state Sen. MIKE KENNEDY, while the moderates have coalesced around CASE LAWRENCE, a “trampoline park entrepreneur.” One reason to watch this race is that it is one of the few GOP primaries where Ukraine has popped up as a serious issue. Kennedy, who challenged Romney in 2018, hits the notes of a foreign-policy isolationist and in a recent debate refused to say whether he would have voted for the last round of Ukraine funding. Lawrence said he would have voted yes. If Kennedy wins, this would be the rare GOP district in which a supporter of Ukraine aid is replaced by a skeptic of it. UT-02: Mike Lee vs. Mike Johnson In another primary testing the strength of the Trump endorsement — and of House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s power and influence — Rep. CELESTE MALOY is seeking renomination with those big shots’ support. Combat veteran COLBY JENKINS, meanwhile, has gotten a huge boost from Lee, who seems to have turned his back on Maloy after she sided with Johnson on key spending votes. Trump’s endorsement came after Johnson recently visited Mar-a-Lago, but several big MAGA names have broken with Trump to back Jenkins, including VIVEK RAMASWAMY and Sens. RAND PAUL (Ky.) and TOMMY TUBERVILLE (Ala.). CO-03: Will Democrats pick the GOP nominee? Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT fled this Rocky Mountain district after nearly losing in 2022, and she’s now running to represent the Eastern Plains of CO-04. She left behind a mess of a seven-person GOP primary, and Democrats have stepped in by re-upping their strategy of boosting the MAGA candidate who they believe will be the most unelectable. Their pick is former state Rep. RON HANKS, who was at the Capitol on Jan. 6 and has a long history of other controversies. While Democrats have been tying Hanks to Trump and calling him “too conservative,” the Congressional Leadership Fund has been attacking Hanks as a closet liberal. The best bet for the GOP establishment against presumptive Democratic nominee ADAM FRISCH seems to be business-friendly attorney and top primary fundraiser JEFFREY HURD. CO-04: Can Boebert pull off a congressional switcheroo? Boebert is favored to win this seat, which opened up after Rep. KEN BUCK’s recent retirement, despite the accusations of being a carpetbagger who moved to an entirely new theater of combat in the state. (A divided field will probably help.) But to make matters a little more complicated, there’s also a special election tomorrow to replace Buck in which Boebert isn’t running. But the GOP nominee in the special, a controversial election denier and former mayor named GREG LOPEZ, is not running in the fall. Given Democrats’ success in specials recently, we’ll be closely watching Lopez’s margin against Democrat TRISHA CALVARESE. CO-05: Can the Colorado GOP establishment strike back? This is a pure MAGA vs. establishment fight with major bragging rights for the winning faction. Trump-endorsed DAVE WILLIAMS, the enormously controversial party chair, is facing GOP donor class favorite JEFF CRANK, a former talk show host who once upon a time would have been considered the right-winger in any GOP primary. Crank is favored to win, so this could be an embarrassing one for Trump tomorrow. CO-08: Can Trump snuff out a MAGA challenger in a tossup district? Trump is on the other side of this MAGA vs. establishment matchup: He’s backing state Rep. GABE EVANS, who Trump recently endorsed realizing that Evans had the best shot of winning this tossup seat from Democratic Rep. YADIRA CARAVEO in the fall. Evans’ struggling primary opponent is state Rep. JANAK JOSHI, who is endorsed by the MAGA-controlled state party. Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Congressional primaries held in Colorado, New York and Utah, plus runoff elections in South Carolina. … Wednesday: Supreme Court opinions released. BBC hosts debate between British PM RISHI SUNAK and Labour Party leader KEIR STARMER. … Thursday: CNN holds presidential debate at 9 p.m. Q1 economic growth numbers released. Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG testifies before House Transportation and Infrastructure. … Friday: Core PCE inflation numbers released. Biden holds a campaign event in Raleigh, North Carolina. Trump holds a campaign rally in Chesapeake, Virginia. … Saturday: Tour de France begins. Biden attends fundraisers in the Hamptons and New Jersey. … Sunday: France holds first round of parliamentary elections.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. 3 things to watch …
- It’s all about appropriations in the House this week, with GOP leaders hoping to get the Defense, Homeland Security and State-Foreign Operations bills across the floor before the July 4 recess. Hundreds of amendments have been filed on each bill, with the customary smattering of culture-war provisions on offer (like, say, banning the Pentagon from buying lab-grown meat). But the provision to watch is playing out in committee: Wednesday’s Commerce-Justice-Science markup will signal how serious Republicans are about defunding special counsel JACK SMITH.
- The Senate won’t be back in session till July 8, so Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has some time to figure out his next move on the big tax bill that’s languished in his chamber after passing the House in January. As Morning Tax’s Bernie Becker reported Friday in-cycle Democrats are pushing for a vote as Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and other progressives argue the big-business breaks outweigh the Child Tax Credit expansion therein. Schumer will have to decide whether a likely-to-fail vote is worth the precious floor time.
- This week’s hearing slate is getting a touch of star power, with Olympic swimming legends MICHAEL PHELPS and ALLISON SCHMITT set to testify at a prime-time House Energy and Commerce hearing on anti-doping efforts ahead of the Summer Olympics. The backdrop is that China is sending 11 swimmers who previously tested positive for a banned heart drug to Paris for this year’s games. Expect the athletes and U.S. Anti-Doping Agency President TRAVIS TYGART to ask pointed questions about the World Anti-Doping Agency’s standards and practices. More from NBC
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. On the trail VP KAMALA HARRIS will speak at a campaign event at the University of Maryland, College Park, before flying to Phoenix for a moderated conversation at a campaign event. She’ll then travel to LA for the night.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a ceremony at the Nahalat Yitshak Cemetery in Tel Aviv, Israel, Tuesday, June 18, 2024. | Pool Photo by Shaul Golan | WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — For the first time in public, and after weeks of giving mixed signals, Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU yesterday rejected the broad cease-fire/hostage release deal that Biden had laid out in a major speech. Instead, Netanyahu said in an interview that he would go for a temporary cease-fire and partial hostage release before the Israel-Hamas war restarted. But Netanyahu also said that the period of extremely intense fighting, which has killed more than 37,000 Palestinians, will end “very soon” as Israel will shift to narrower operations to take out Hamas fighters. More from Bloomberg
In Washington, where Netanyahu’s address to Congress is a month away today, many Democrats are grappling with whether they should show up for it, AP’s Farnoush Amiri reports. The number of missing lawmakers will almost certainly be greater than the 60 who boycotted his 2015 speech, as the tension between supporting Israel and lambasting its conduct in the war squeeze many Dems. Some see this as a Republican attempt to divide the party.
More regional fallout: “One U.S. Navy secret weapon in the Red Sea? Sailor morale,” by CBS’ Brit McCandless Farmer More domestic fallout: “Violent clash outside West L.A. synagogue; 1 carrying ‘spiked flag’ arrested, police say,” by LA Times’ Carlos Lozano and Paul Pringle More top reads:
2024 WATCH GETTING THE GANG BACK TOGETHER — “What Obama Is Whispering to Biden,” by N.Y. Mag’s Gabriel Debenedetti: “[BARACK] OBAMA is increasingly involved in Biden’s campaign, but his role looks different from what it was in 2020, as does their relationship … He has also gotten publicly involved earlier than many anticipated. … [T]he ex-president has already brought in more than $65 million for Biden … He has filmed ten video clips that the Biden team has used as digital advertisements and more are likely to come. Both presidents are working out the exact contours of Obama’s role in Biden’s campaign, just as the relationship enters a new chapter defined by Trump’s possible return and with it a threat to their joint legacy.” UP FOR DEBATE — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and his team are dangling their counterprogramming to Thursday’s CNN debate from which he’s been excluded: NICOLE SHANAHAN says to expect “a few surprises.” SURVEY SAYS — “America’s new generation gap: Young voters say they’ll inherit a more challenging world. But will they vote in it?” by CBS’ Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto MORE POLITICS
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President Joe Biden speaks to reporters as he hosts Romanian President Klaus Iohannis in the Oval Office at the White House on May 7, 2024, in Washington. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | HOW POLITICS WORKS NOW — Viral videos of politicians on TV or the campaign trail are more powerful than ever, driving a lot of the political information that reaches many voters. And from Fox News hate-watchers to official Democratic and Republican organizations, the video clippers have emerged as a new class of important political operatives, NYT’s Simon Levien reports. Social media gets hit nearly instantly with moments of mistakes or controversial comments, often layered with captions/commentary — and candidates are learning they may need to be more careful. The clippers say they’re stepping in where traditional media outlets have retreated to deliver information. But misleadingly edited clips have also emerged as a major partisan flashpoint in recent weeks. One of the men at the vanguard is JAKE SCHNEIDER, whom The Daily Beast’s Jake Lahut profiles as the RNC staffer who leads the party’s senile-Joe video-clipping machine. The White House and independent observers have blasted some of these videos as “cheap fakes” that use deception to portray Biden as doddering or confused (though, of course, the president is older and slower than he once was). “Schneider keeps a low profile … But Trumpworld sources credit him as ‘the tip of the spear’ in the onslaught on Biden’s age.” INTERESTING QUESTION — The Plain Dealer’s Andrew Tobias dug into the question of what will happen to J.D. VANCE’s Senate seat if Trump taps him as VP. The short answer: Ohio Gov. MIKE DeWINE, not exactly a Trump diehard, would get to appoint a replacement. And he’d likely want someone who could win election to a full term (getting through both the primary and the general) in 2026.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute:   | | | VALLEY TALK TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — “TikTok in denial as US ‘ban’ approaches,” by Semafor’s Max Tani and Ben Smith in Cannes, France: “The complacency over TikTok at Cannes was a shocking contrast with the seriousness in Washington about killing or forcing the sale of the app. … The idea that all will be well seems to rest on a pair of shaky assumptions. First, that Trump will win in November. And second, that when he does, he’ll then intervene to save the app.” POLICY CORNER
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Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) speaks with reporters outside the U.S. Capitol April 17, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | NEXT YEAR’S BIG PRIORITY — Taxes will be top of the list for Washington in 2025, and the political landscape for corporations could look very different than it did less than a decade ago, Brian Faler reports this morning. Though businesses triumphed in the 2017 tax reform, landing a massive tax cut, populist energy is emerging among both Democrats and Republicans to claw some of it back and pay for low individual tax rates instead. Trump is still moving in the direction of traditional GOP priorities, calling for the business tax rate to be lowered still, but the likes of Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) are open to raising it a few points instead. Many members are focused more on extending the individual tax cuts and reducing some of the hit to budget deficits. And though the business lobby is already mobilizing to fight for protecting the corporate rate, they have fewer friends on the Hill than they once did. ONE TO WATCH — “US prosecutors recommend Justice Dept. criminally charge Boeing,” Reuters’ Chris Prentice, Mike Spector and Allison Lampert scooped: “The Justice Department must decide by July 7.” CONGRESS THE NEW JOHN FETTERMAN — “John Fetterman’s War,” by The New Yorker’s Benjamin Wallace-Wells: “[Former chief of staff ADAM] JENTLESON offered an intricate theory of what Fetterman is up to. … The Party’s future depends on re-ingratiating itself with less educated voters who might be economically populist and might dislike the G.O.P.’s turn toward the religious right, but who, as Jentleson sees it, ‘don’t want to feel super judged all the time.’ Fetterman’s instinct is for what Jentleson called ‘vice signalling’ — a countermeasure to the performative do-gooderism of the left.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY AILING AMERICA — “‘Too many old people’: A rural Pa. town reckons with population loss,” by WaPo’s Tim Craig in Sheffield: “There is a deepening sense of fear as population loss accelerates in rural America. The decline of small-town life is expected to be a looming topic in the presidential election.” IMMIGRATION FILES — “How the migrant crisis tested schools 2,000 miles from the southern border,” by WaPo’s Joanna Slater: “When dozens of migrant students arrived in Rotterdam in upstate New York, the local school district scrambled to adapt. It wasn’t easy.”
PRAIRIE DELUGE — “Crews Race to Fortify Levees as Floods Swallow Midwestern Towns,” by NYT’s Mitch Smith
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Melania Trump is staying quiet. Chuck Schumer got pressed on congestion pricing during his Sunday walk in the park. Liz Mair is selling presidential debate bingo cards. Tyler Cherry distanced himself from his old social media posts. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Justin Pidot is rejoining the University of Arizona’s James E. College of Law as a professor and co-director of the Environmental Law Program. He previously has been general counsel at the White House Council on Environmental Quality, where he’ll be succeeded by Emma Cheuse. TRANSITION — Hannah Strub Morrow is now director of government relations for defense programs at Saildrone. She previously was legislative director for Rep. John Rutherford (R-Fla.). ENGAGED — Will O’Grady, press secretary for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), and Katie Fitzpatrick, scheduler for Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), got engaged Friday in the Capitol rotunda. They met while working for Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.). Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) … Ralph Reed … U.S. Chamber’s Suzanne Clark … Matt Continetti … Robert Reich … U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Agencies for Food and Agriculture Jeff Prescott … Ben Tomchik … POLITICO’s Megan Messerly, Nana Yeboah and Nirmal Mulaikal … Anna Massoglia … Jon Yuan of Rational 360 … Alejandra Soto … Jason Johnson of Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s (D-Ariz.) office … Jennifer Millerwise Dyck … former New York Gov. George Pataki … Gretchen Reiter … NYT’s Zach Seward and Adrienne Hurst … Heather Hurlburt … Judge Loren AliKhan … Amelia Makin … Paul DiNino Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Gregg Gonsalves’ name.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute: For nearly four years, the American people have faced the pain of high inflation and global conflict. Now, more than ever, it’s time to end political gamesmanship. Let’s work together on solutions that help American consumers and secure our energy future.
At a time of persistent inflation and geopolitical instability, the American people need more affordable energy and less partisanship. Here are five actions policymakers can take now that will make a difference.
a. Protect consumer choice
b. Bolster geopolitical strength
c. Leverage our abundant natural resources
d. Reform our broken permitting system
e. Advance sensible tax policy
Let’s work together on solutions that help address the consequences of inflation, while securing America’s energy future. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
