| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Despite its full-tilt pressure campaign, the Biden administration has had no luck convincing Israel and Hamas to agree to the cease-fire deal. | Win McNamee/Getty Images | With help from Miles Herszenhorn, Nahal Toosi, Erin Banco, Lara Seligman and Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Even as international efforts intensify to push through the cease-fire deal Biden announced late last month, there are signs that various players are preparing for a world in which hostilities don’t stop anytime soon. Israeli opposition leader BENNY GANTZ left Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s war cabinet on Sunday, accusing the prime minister of “preventing us from reaching real victory” in Gaza. The move will force Netanyahu to become more dependent on far-right politicians — who have voiced strong opposition to a deal that brings about a lasting cease-fire. Overall, Gantz’s departure will allow him to speak more critically of Netanyahu. But it’s unlikely to affect the prime minister’s stance on the three-phase cease-fire proposal, as it’s widely believed he won’t stop the war unless it's politically advantageous to himself personally. Even Biden said there’s “every reason” for people in Israel to conclude that Netanyahu is prolonging the war to stay in power. The day before the cabinet shakeup, Israeli forces rescued four hostages in Gaza, with the help of U.S. and British intelligence. But no Americans were rescued, and at least 274 Palestinians were killed during the operation, according to Gazan health officials. Another 700 Palestinians were wounded. Saving hostages, despite the bloodbath that ensued, “reinforces the argument in Israel that military forces are the best way to bring people home,” STEVEN COOK, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told NatSec Daily. The U.S. is still pushing hard to secure the cease-fire deal. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is in the Middle East this week, attempting to pressure the various parties to move forward with the three-phase cease-fire proposal. He met today with Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI, as well as Netanyahu. He also was due to see Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT. At the same time, Washington is exerting its influence on the U.N. Security Council in an effort to pressure Hamas to agree to the deal. Minutes ago, the 15-member body voted to approve a resolution backing the three-phase deal. But Israel and Hamas have demonstrated that “they don't care much about what happens at the U.N.,” Cook argued. And behind closed doors, however, the White House appears to be working on a contingency plan if the larger cease-fire deal doesn’t pan out. The U.S. has discussed a possible unilateral deal with the militant group that would secure the release of five Americans hostages, if the current three-phase cease-fire deal with Israel doesn’t come to fruition, NBC News reports. Despite its full-tilt pressure campaign, the Biden administration has had no luck convincing Israel and Hamas to agree to the deal. NatSec Daily hasn’t independently verified the report. It’s unclear what Washington has to offer the militant group. But the talks with Hamas, conducted through Qatar, wouldn’t include Israel at all — a process that would inevitably strain U.S.-Israeli relations, which the group would undoubtedly love to see. “Simply discussing this highlights a divergence with Israel,” DANIEL BYMAN, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told NatSec Daily. Each day the war drags on, the likelihood that the living hostages will be rescued decreases. A top priority for the administration is securing the release of U.S. citizens, whether the larger deal comes together or not. Asked about the deal today, Blinken dodged whether or not the U.S. has discussed a possible deal with Hamas. But he emphasized the need to save Americans who are in danger. “The best way, the most effective way to get everyone home, including the American hostages … is through the cease-fire deal that’s on the table right now,” Blinken said. The National Security Council referred NatSec Daily to Blinken’s comments.
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Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more. | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ABOUT THE LEBANON BOMBER: The attack on the U.S. embassy in Lebanon on Wednesday was carried out by a Syrian national who expressed anger online about Israel’s operations in Gaza and U.S. support for the Netanyahu government, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told our own ERIN BANCO. QAIS AL-AWAD AL-FARAJ was wearing ISIS insignia when he opened fire on the embassy, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said Friday. But an initial investigation has revealed that al-Faraj moved to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley in 2013, posted online, including on various social media sites, about his anger about the war in Gaza and the U.S. support for Israel, the officials said. Lebanese and American officials do not believe al-Faraj is associated with a larger ISIS network, the officials said. Both were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. Sunni terrorist attacks on American posts in Lebanon are rare. Hezbollah, a shiite group, is dominant and its members control large swathes of the country, including in Beirut where its political wing holds seats in parliament. Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza in October, American officials have warned internally about the potential for a coordinated attack by Hezbollah on outposts in Lebanon. The fact that an individual who associated himself with ISIS attacked the embassy supports warnings made by numerous U.S. officials in recent months that the war in Gaza would likely inspire a wide array of threats across the region, including from both sunni and shiite groups. The U.S. embassy remains in contact with the Lebanese authorities as they investigate the incident, the State Department said in a statement to NatSec Daily. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — TONY’S TRAVELS: Blinken has a slew of other meetings planned during his Middle East swing this week, a U.S. official familiar with the (always tentative) plans told our own NAHAL TOOSI. On Tuesday, while in Israel, he’s due to see Gantz, the Netanyahu rival who just quit the Israeli governing coalition, as well as opposition leader YAIR LAPID and relatives of U.S. hostages held by Hamas. He’ll then head to Jordan, where he’ll attend an aid conference for Gaza. He also plans to see Palestinian Authority Prime Minister MOHAMMAD MUSTAFA and Bahrain Foreign Minister ABDULLATIF BIN RASHID AL-ZAYANI, and is slated to spend time with Jordanian King ABDULLAH II. On Wednesday, Blinken is expected to be in Qatar, where he’s set to meet with the emir, TAMIM BIN HAMAD AL THANI as well as the prime minister, MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN AL THANI. Blinken and the prime minister are due to hold a joint news conference. Afterward, he heads to Italy for the G7 summit. ISRAEL’S OTHER FRONT: Israel’s military is intensifying strikes against Hezbollah targets in Syria and gearing up to fully attack the Iran-backed proxy, according to Reuters’ SULEIMAN AL-KHALIDI, JOHN DAVISON and DAN WILLIAMS. Israel’s air force has carried out more than 50 air strikes since the war in the Gaza Strip broke out in October, and regional diplomats and officials are emphasizing that Israel’s actions against Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria won’t stop there. Syrian officials told Reuters that Israel is preparing to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon after the war in the Gaza Strip winds down, though leaving the door open for a diplomatic resolution with Beirut. Israel and the Iran-backed proxy were trading shots near the Israeli-Lebanese border even before the war, but that underlying conflict burst into view following Oct. 7. The Israeli government is also increasingly concerned about Iranian weapons transfers to the Islamist militant group and wants to disrupt Hezbollah’s supply chains. OTTAWA’S TREASON TROUBLES: Canada’s capital is reeling after a foreign interference probe by a parliamentary committee revealed that “witting” lawmakers were acting on behalf of foreign governments including China, our own ZI-ANN LUM reports. The explosive revelations come as Canadian politicians across the spectrum have warned that the governments of China and India have attempted to influence the critical U.S. ally’s politics. Politicians have claimed that foreign diplomats have directed members of parliament to vote in certain ways, collected information about members or attempted to marshal support for specific candidates. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | UKRAINE SUMMIT PRELUDE: Switzerland has seen an increase in cyberattacks and disinformation ahead of the peace summit to discuss how to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to an end, Swiss officials said today. There’s a clear “interest” in disrupting the talks, Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis told reporters today, per Reuters’ DAVE GRAHAM. But Cassis dodged when asked if Russia was involved. Asked about personal attacks in Russian media about her in recent weeks, Swiss President VIOLA AMHERD told reporters that Switzerland hasn’t summoned the Russian ambassador “because the disinformation campaign is so extreme that one can see that little of it reflects reality.”
| | MORE PIER PROBLEMS: There appears to be no end to the weather and logistical problems plaguing the U.S. military-built pier in Gaza, our own LARA SELIGMAN writes in. The pier was reattached to the beach of Gaza on Friday after U.S. military personnel completed repairs in the Port of Ashdod, Israel. Delivery of humanitarian assistance over the pier resumed Saturday. But aid deliveries were halted again Sunday and today due to rough seas, Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told reporters. Environmental factors might not be the only reason behind the pause. The director of the U.N. World Food Program on Sunday said the aid distribution was “paused” due to security concerns following Saturday’s Israeli military operation to free four hostages. Ryder declined to comment on the WFP statement, but stressed that the pier was not involved in the operation. About 1.1 million pounds of aid was delivered across the pier on Saturday, Ryder said. To date, more than 3.5 million pounds have been delivered via the pier. MY PRECIOUS: Ukraine’s air force may keep a number of the F-16 fighter jets it expects to receive from European allies at foreign bases to protect them from Russian airstrikes, according to the Associated Press’ HANNA ARHIROVA. SERHII HOLUBTSOV, chief of aviation for Ukraine’s air force, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty today that some F-16s “will be stored at secure air bases outside of Ukraine so that they are not targeted here.” It is unclear if F-16s stored at foreign bases will be used in combat or just to replace damaged aircraft, but Russian officials, including President VLADIMIR PUTIN, have repeatedly suggested that Russia could strike facilities in NATO countries that host fighter jets used in the war. “If they are stationed at air bases outside the Ukrainian borders and used in combat, we will have to see how and where to strike the assets used in combat against us,” Putin said last year.
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/13 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE: As Congress and the White House work to strengthen health care affordability and access, innovative technologies and treatments are increasingly important for patient health and lower costs. What barriers are appearing as new tech emerges? Is the Medicare payment process keeping up with new technologies and procedures? Join us on June 13 as POLITICO convenes a panel of lawmakers, officials and experts to discuss what policy solutions could expand access to innovative therapies and tech. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | UNSHACKLE UKRAINE: Rep. MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas) is lobbying Biden to allow Ukraine to use American weapons to strike other parts of Russia, aside from just inside Russian territory near the Kharkiv region. Zelenskyy told McCaul and other lawmakers at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that he can’t effectively defend the city with the U.S. prohibition on using some weapons in place, McCaul said in a letter sent Thursday to Biden, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scoop. Zelenskyy “raised ongoing challenges on the battlefield, including those caused by your restrictive policy on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided weapons, particularly mid- and long-range Army Tactical Missile System variants (ATACMS) that have been explicitly authorized by Congress for transfer.” The missiles could be used to strike Russian targets supporting the offensive, as well as airfields where Russian aircraft are, per the letter from McCaul, chair of the House Foreign Affairs committee. “This policy restriction defies congressional intent and must be revised immediately to best allow Ukraine to defend its territory and win this war,” the letter reads. “I also ask that you provide Ukrainians with the requested intelligence to allow for real time targeting.”
| | | MINSK TAGS ALONG: Belarus announced today it would join nuclear exercises with Russia as the Kremlin works to ratchet up the pressure on Ukraine’s allies, according to our own SEB STARCEVIC. Belarus’ defense chief VIKTOR KHRENIN said that Minsk’s participation in the drills taking place in southern Russia was a proactive measure to "increase our readiness to use so-called retaliatory weapons.” The Kremlin, angry that the U.S. and other allies are allowing Ukraine to use Western-made munitions and weapons against targets in Russian territory, has sought to use nuclear threats as a way to rein in further Western entry into the conflict. Belarus has also grown closer to long-time ally Moscow, agreeing in March 2023 to store Russian tactical nuclear weapons in its territory. HEATED DOWN UNDER: Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE asked activists to “turn the heat down” after someone wearing a dark hoodie used a sledgehammer to smash holes in the reinforced glass windows of the U.S. Consulate in Sydney, per the Associated Press. “People are traumatized by what is going on in the Middle East, particularly those with relatives in either Israel or in the Palestinian Occupied Territories,” Albanese said today. “I just say, again, reiterate my call to turn the heat down and measures such as painting the U.S. consulate do nothing to advance the cause of those who have committed what is, of course, a crime to damage property.” GOING AFTER THE HOUTHIS: The Treasury Department announced new sanctions against ten entities accused of helping Yemen’s Houthi rebels illegally traffic oil and other commodities, our own CHRIS MARQUETTE reports (for Pros!). Undersecretary of the Treasury BRIAN NELSON said in a statement the sanctions against Houthi financial facilitator SA’ID AL-JAMAL and others are part of the U.S. commitment to “disrupting and degrading the Houthis’ ability to engage in attacks against commercial shipping and naval vessels, as well as target those who seek to facilitate these activities.”
| | | |   | | | | | — MICHAEL WEIGAND, who helped stand up Army Cyber, has joined Squadra Ventures as an entrepreneur in residence. He comes to Squadra from cybersecurity firm Shift5, which he co-founded in 2019. — Beacon Global Strategies added DIVYANSH KAUSHIK and BEN SCHRAMM as vice presidents. Kaushik is joining the firm's global technology practice and Schramm is entering its national security technology practice. — French President EMMANUEL MACRON dissolved the country’s National Assembly yesterday after his bloc suffered a blistering loss against MARINE LE PEN’s National Rally party in the European Parliament elections. Our colleagues in Brussels have more on the right’s wins in France and Germany and the implications on European policy. — Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI was sworn in for another term as the country’s leader after a closer-than-expected result in the months-long general election.
| | — RAIMY KHALIFE-HAMDAN, Win Without War Education Fund: U.S. government failures to evacuate U.S. citizens, legal residents, and their families from Gaza — JESSICA MOODY, Foreign Policy: How ECOWAS lost its way — JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: The U.S. military plans a ‘Hellscape’ to deter China from attacking Taiwan
| | — The Atlantic Council, 1:00 p.m.: Discussion about a newly-released report, “Friend-Sourcing Military Procurement: Technology Acquisition as Security Cooperation.” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2:00 p.m.: A pivotal year: assessing the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1:00 p.m.: Virtual discussion about a recently published report, “Is NATO Ready for War? An Assessment of NATO's Efforts to Strengthen Defense and Deterrence since the Madrid Summit.” Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we hope quits the coalition with Matt and Eric. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we work much better with anyways.
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