Big smoke by-election

Jun 11, 2024

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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ Playbook is in Toronto-St. Paul's ahead of voting day on June 24.

→ POLITICO joins Eurasia Group and BMO at the U.S.-Canada Summit.

→ The latest on the Hill's tussle over foreign interference revelations.

For your radar

MIDTOWN VOTE — The silly season hype machine is revving up speculation that the race in Toronto-St. Paul's could have serious consequences.

— If you buy the narrative: The prime minister's career rests in the hands of Liberal candidate LESLIE CHURCH. If Church fails to defend a seat her party has held since 1993, the theory goes, JUSTIN TRUDEAU is certain to resign.

ALTHIA RAJ stirred the pot on the stakes.

For obvious reasons, Playbook is in Toronto-St. Paul’s this week.

We started by shadowing Green candidate CHRISTIAN CULLIS and Green MP MIKE MORRICE as they knocked doors Sunday — an element of the democratic process Morrice describes as “magic” because of the direct contact with voters.

— The issues: Affordability over everything. The Greens say antisemitism is also top of mind for many voters — an emotional conversation at the door when it comes up.

— What the polls say: The Greens won't win here, but the party is committing resources, including paid staff, to an unusually volatile midtown race. The Liberals appear vulnerable for the first time since the Mulroney era, when BARBARA MCDOUGALL repped the area.

338Canada gives Church a four-point lead and a 77 percent chance at victory, good enough for an "LPC leaning" projection. But by-elections are notorious for low turnout, particularly as voters are distracted by summer vacations, festivals and heat waves.

→ Recent history: Turnout varied in four June by-elections last year, ranging from a low of 29.93 percent in Liberal MP ANNA GAINEY's Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount win to 45.47 percent in a higher-profile showdown in Portage—Lisgar between Tory MP BRANDEN LESLIE and People's Party boss MAXIME BERNIER.

— Key dates: Voting day in Toronto-St. Paul's is June 24, but advance polls are open this Friday until Monday.

— Cabinet count: CBC's CHRISTIAN PAAS-LANG is tracking federal ministers pounding the pavement in midtown Toronto: so far, more than a dozen have stopped by.

Liberal commentator ANDREW PEREZ snapped a photo of former Sen. JERRY GRAFSTEIN rallying Liberal supporters on Monday. Liberal MP ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER delivered keynote remarks at the backyard event.

— Slogans in the wild: This is an urban riding with lively main streets and residential lawn signs and bumper stickers typical of progressive enclaves: "Stop the 413;" "Stop privatizing our public hospitals;" "No more stolen sisters;" "Farmers feed cities."

But there are pockets that feel suburban.

— Location, location, location: The residents of Claxton Boulevard, where Cullis and Morrice dropped by Sunday, live a contrast in density.

Newer, larger infill homes define the north side of the leafy street. A municipal application posted on one lawn signaled a homeowner's intent to build a one-storey backyard addition — more housing, perhaps, for a city in need (and more revenue for the builder).

Older, modest fourplexes line the south side of the street where NDP signs aren't uncommon.

One resident described the riding to Playbook as a “petri dish … a little bit of everything.”

— You tell us: Where are the tea leaves worth reading in the riding? Who are the oracles of Toronto-St. Paul's? We’re all ears.

— Ahead this week: We'll check in with Church, as well as NDP candidate AMRIT PARHAR. DON STEWART's Conservative campaign has yet to acknowledge our interview request — the party said it's likely he's prioritizing door-knocking.

Are you Conservative candidate DON STEWART? We'd love to talk to you about your campaign to be Toronto's newest MP. We're in town all week. Drop us a line!

DRIVING THE DAY

Mark Carney, UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance, Co-Chair, GFANZ and Chair and Head of Transition Investing, Brookfield Asset Management, addresses the gathering on the second day of the three-day B20 Summit in New Delhi on August 26, 2023. (Photo by Arun SANKAR / AFP) (Photo by ARUN SANKAR/AFP via Getty Images)

Mark Carney is at today’s U.S.-Canada Summit, co-sponsored by the global risk consultants at Eurasia Group and the Bay Street bankers at BMO, where he will deliver an end-of-day keynote. | AFP via Getty Images

SUMMIT SEASON — It's speechifying time once again for MARK CARNEY.

Carney, the U.N. envoy and Brookfield chair, will deliver the final keynote at today’s U.S.-Canada Summit co-sponsored by the global risk consultants at Eurasia Group and the Bay Street bankers at BMO.

Carney personifies the room's Venn diagram: former investment banker (✓), former central banker (✓), sustainable finance guru (✓). Plus, he's a sucker for a speech with the potential to get people talking.

Sure, Carney's endgame remains nebulous and his patter is 75 percent recycled from his own material. But was he supposed to turn down the invite?

— Why we're here: POLITICO Canada is a media partner at the summit which convenes A-list watchers of what organizers call an "essential geopolitical relationship."

The summit's elevator pitch: "to challenge conventional thinking and help senior decision-makers better understand how to navigate this crucial relationship."

— Conversation starter: From ALEXANDER BURNS in POLITICO Magazine this morning: Why Canada is worried about a U.S. civil war.

Here's who else is onstage today as the hallway conversations play out on the margins at Toronto's Ritz-Carlton.

→ The emcees: Former U.S. ambo DAVID JACOBSON and former TV anchor EVAN SOLOMON open the show. Jacobson is now a BMO strategic adviser. Solomon is publisher of Eurasia Group's GZERO Media.

→ Opening fireside: POLITICO editor-at-large MATTHEW KAMINSKI interviews Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.).

→ Ambos: Former foreign minister JOHN BAIRD leads a conversation on “diplomatic dividends” with Canada’s KIRSTEN HILLMAN and U.S. envoy DAVID COHEN.

→ Elephant in the room: Eurasia Group vice chair GERRY BUTTS talks to former Obama adviser DAVID AXELROD about “preparing for POTUS (no matter who wins).”

→ POTUS whisperers: The Biden-Harris 2024 national campaign co-chair, MITCH LANDRIEU, takes the stage alongside former Trump deputy chief of staff CHRISTOPHER LIDDELL. Moderator: Biz Council boss GOLDY HYDER.

→ Future of trade and tech: Butts gabs fireside-style with GARY COHN, IBM vice chair and former director of the National Economic Council. POLITICO's STEVEN OVERLY leads a panel on “critical and emerging technologies” — not just AI.

→ Hot button du jour: Communications Security Establishment chief CAROLINE XAVIER takes questions from The Globe and Mail's COLIN FREEZE.

→ Final fireside: Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND in conversation with LAURA DAWSON, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition.

→ Premiers in the room: Ontario's DOUG FORD and Saskatchewan's SCOTT MOE.

→ Former premiers: B.C.'s CHRISTY CLARK and Alberta's JASON KENNEY.

→ Governors: Minnesota's TIM WALZ and Illinois' JB PRITZKER.

— Watch for more coverage: Playbook will be at the Ritz-Carlton all day. Want to bend our ears? Drop a line this morning to NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY or ZI-ANN LUM.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa and will chair this morning’s Cabinet meeting. He’ll be in QP later this afternoon.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will hold her weekly economic check-in. Housing Minister SEAN FRASER and Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS will join the update. She will also attend Cabinet and QP.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will attend QP.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has yet to release his public itinerary.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Ottawa with plans to participate in parliament in person.

DULY NOTED

— When she leaves the Eurasia Group/BMO U.S.-Canada summit, Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY will race to the 905 for an evening fundraiser at Château Le Jardin in Woodbridge.

— Will-he-or-won't-he Liberal luminary MARK CARNEY, closing the summit with an early evening keynote, joins Ontario Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE at a nearby downtown fundraiser for the provincial party.

— International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN is in Amman, Jordan, for a conference that “aims to unite stakeholders around collective action toward humanitarian response for Gaza.”

— The Ukraine Recovery Conference is underway in Berlin. On the program: OLAF SCHOLZ, URSULA VON DER LEYEN, DMYTRO KULEBA, RADOSLAW SIKORSKI, DAVID CAMERON, PENNY PRITZKER, SERHIY MARCHENKO, MIKE POMPEO.

We're tracking the political events of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

WET FIRECRACKER — That Bloc opposition motion up for a vote today has already turned into a bit of a whomp-whomp, expected to easily pass in the Commons.

Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC said the Liberals will support the call to expand the terms of reference of an ongoing public inquiry into foreign interference to include the recent scandalous allegations of lawmakers aiding foreign governments.

Justice MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE already has the same documents as NSICOP (the committee that released the explosive report), he said. “I’m not sure we’re widening the scope of the inquiry,” LeBlanc told reporters in a short scrum after QP. “The terms of reference, as they’re currently drafted, would allow the Hogue commission to consider this matter.”

— Big open question: What does this mean for the commission’s end-of-year reporting deadline, if Hogue scrutinizes intel on members of both houses of Parliament in that timeframe?

— Won’t name names: LeBlanc said he asked RCMP Deputy Commissioner MARK FLYNN what would happen if he released the list of names, and was told he would be subject to criminal prosecution.

Deputy Conservative Leader MELISSA LANTSMAN pressed in QP whether the government would send “every document, unredacted, with names, to Justice Hogue, so she can release them.”

LeBlanc refused to answer reporters' questions about whether that’s something Hogue could do, arguing the question was too hypothetical to merit an answer.

— Give ’em the boot: NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH told reporters he would immediately kick out anyone out of caucus if it becomes “clear to me they knowingly worked with a foreign government to undermine Canada.”

“I expect other party leaders to do the same thing,” Singh said, directly challenging PIERRE POILIEVRE to obtain the relevant security clearance. Singh stopped short of saying whether he would name any suspicious MPs from other parties.

— Rush order: Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY, who already enjoys top security clearance, wrote to LeBlanc yesterday requesting immediate access to the NSICOP documents, saying Canadians are “outraged” and that “time is of the essence.”

May's letter ends: “Thanks for your help in arranging access for me, today if possible.”

— Related reading: STEPHANIE CARVIN and PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ write in the Globe: Party leaders have the ability to step up and clean house of alleged colluders.

MEDIA ROOM

— From POLITICO’s JOHN F. HARRIS and ALEXANDER BURNS: EMMANUEL MACRON, JOE BIDEN and RISHI SUNAK all appear to have concluded that their only way to escape dire political problems is by dramatically changing the plot.

— ELIZABETH THOMPSON of CBC News reports: U.S. officials discussed hitting Canada with trade sanctions over Quebec's language law.

— Thomas Laberge of The Canadian Press reports the headline out of Monday’s meeting between the PM and Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT: Quebec gets $750M from federal government to handle surge of temporary immigrants. CP also registered a response from B.C. Premier DAVID EBY.

— In a dispatch for the National Association of Federal Retirees, former PCO clerk MICHAEL WERNICK senses change in Ottawa's future: "Another round of [federal program] review on the scale of 1995 or 2012 seems inevitable after the election."

— A headline the PMO could do without: ‘No hope’ for Liberals winning next federal election with Trudeau as leader, say pollsters

— From APTN News: "Climate disaster survivors call for cuts to fossil fuel emissions"

— MARIE WILSON has a new book out today. Nunatsiaq News caught up with the former Truth and Reconciliation commissioner.

PROZONE

Don’t miss our latest newsletter for Pro subscribers: The problem with Bill C-70.

In other news for Pros:

— Tech industry groups push for trade dispute over Canada’s digital services tax.

— Lindsey Graham pushes U.S. to seize frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine.

— Europe’s right plots a Green Deal rollback.

— Commerce’s “connected vehicle” probe triggers fear in U.S. and abroad.

— U.S. Supreme Court takes up Meta petition over shareholder lawsuit.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Ontario Cabmin CAROLINE MULRONEY (50!), former Liberal MP MARIO SILVA, former MP and current commentator, and McMillan Vantage partner TIMOTHY CULLEN.

Celebrate your day with the Playbook community. Send us the details. We’ll let everyone know.

Spotted: Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS, accepting Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH's rum-and-whisky Stanley Cup bet. (Whoops: Smith spelled "whiskey" the American way.)

Like a true former spy boss, RICHARD FADDEN appeared at the Senate national security committee wearing shades: “I’m not trying to be spook-like, I simply grabbed the wrong set [of glasses] when I left the car.”

Privacy Commissioner PHILIPPE DUFRESNE, announcing an investigation with his U.K. counterpart into a data breach at the 23andMe genetic testing company.

Movers and shakers: Former MP CAROLYN PARRISH will be Mississauga’s next mayor.

Former Supreme Court of Canada Chief Justice BEVERLEY MCLACHLIN announced her retirement as a non-permanent judge of the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal when her term expires July 29.

SEAN MURPHY is now Google's manager of government affairs and public policy in Ottawa: "Looking forward to contributing to the growth of this scrappy little startup," he wrote on LinkedIn.

… JACQUIE LAROCQUE takes on the role of Compass Rose CEO. Former PMO senior staffer MARCI SURKES has been promoted to chief strategy officer.

BRUCE FANJOY is running against PIERRE POILIEVRE for the Liberals.

From the ethics files: Health Minister MARK HOLLAND disclosed a pair of gifts — a Sechelt wood carving and Sechelt wood mask from Shíshálh Nation — offered to him in April.

Media mentions: ANNE MARIE OWENS is leaving her post as Toronto Star editor-in-chief. NICOLE MACINTYRE fills the role effective July 11.

ON THE HILL

→ Find House committees here.

→ Keep track of Senate committees here.

9 a.m. The Senate finance committee hears from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce on Bill C-59, the FES implementation bill.

9 a.m. SEAMUS O’REGAN defends his anti-replacement worker bill before the Senate social affairs committee.

11 a.m. The House transport committee continues its study of the Competition Act and air travel in harder-to-reach areas of Canada.

11 a.m. NATAN OBED, president of the Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, will be the first up at the House committee on science and research, which is focused on the Arctic and climate change.

11 a.m. DAVID VIGNEAULT, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, will be at the House procedure committee to discuss cyber attacks on MPs.

11 a.m. PETER ROUTLEDGE of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will help the House finance committee with its study on housing prices and the policy decisions and market forces that influence cost.

2:30 p.m. Senate committee chairs RATNA OMIDVAR, PETER BOEHM, TONY DEAN, RENÉ CORMIER and LEO HOUSAKOS appear at national finance committee to talk about the budget implementation bill.

3 p.m. The Senate social affairs committee hears from a panel on the anti-scab bill.

3:30 p.m. The House environment committee is at work on a freshwater study and will hear from federal department officials in the first hour. In the second hour, officials from Alberta, Northwest Territories, and Yukon will join the discussion.

3:30 p.m. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Fisheries Council of Canada, Council of Canadians, Canadian Cattle Association will be at the House international trade committee as it studies issues and concerns around the 2026 USMCA review.

3:30 p.m. The House public accounts committee will host officials from the environment department, Privy Council Office and auditor general’s office.

4 p.m. The House heritage committee will hear from VIVEK KRISHNAMURTHY and others as it considers the harms caused by illegal sexually explicit material.

6:30 p.m. Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON appears at the Senate’s energy and environment committee to defend Bill C-49, which would create a new regulatory regime for East Coast offshore renewable energy projects.

Behind closed doors: The House agriculture committee continues to hash out its report on the horticultural sector.

TRIVIA

Monday’s answer: A “blatherskite” is one who blathers.

Props to ALEX BALLINGALL, JENN KEAY, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, GORDON RANDALL, KEVIN BOSCH, WAYNE EASTER, MAUREEN MACGILLIVRAY, DANIEL PROUSSALIDIS and JOHN ECKER.

Today’s question: On this date in history, who offered the following apology: “The absence of an apology has been an impediment to healing and reconciliation. Therefore, on behalf of the government of Canada and all Canadians, I stand before you, in this Chamber so central to our life as a country, to apologize to Aboriginal peoples for Canada's role in the Indian Residential Schools system.”

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Writing Wednesday’s Ottawa Playbook: ZI-ANN LUM.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

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