| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | WHY BIDEN AIN’T BUDGING — “Voters have real doubts about Kamala Harris as potential president, poll shows,” by Christopher Cadelago: “The POLITICO/Morning consult poll reveals that only a third of voters think it’s likely [VP KAMALA] HARRIS would win an election were she to become the Democratic nominee, and just three of five Democrats believe she would prevail. A quarter of independents think she would win.”
|  Ohio Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli managed only a not-quite-10-point victory over Democrat Michael Kripchak last night. | Joe Maiorana/AP | TODAY’S SPECIAL — If last night’s election returns were going to provide any surprises, they weren’t supposed to come out of Ohio’s 6th Congressional District. In a special election race that got basically zero national attention, Republican state Sen. MICHAEL RULLI was thought certain to rout Democrat MICHAEL KRIPCHAK, a former Air Force officer and once-aspiring actor who quit a Youngstown-area restaurant job to run for Congress. DONALD TRUMP, after all, had won the blue-collar, mostly rural district previously represented by GOP Rep. BILL JOHNSON by 29 points in 2022. Furthermore, Rulli raised nearly 30 times more than Kripchak’s shoestring budget. Rulli, in the end, managed only a not-quite-10-point victory over Kripchak — a roughly 20-point swing toward Democrats versus Trump’s 2020 showing. More from AP With early returns putting the race even closer, our minds immediately turned to SIMON ROSENBERG, the Democratic high priest of hopium, who has counseled anxious Democrats for going on three years now to pay less attention to polls and more attention to how voters actually vote. It paid off big time in 2022, when he was one of the few pundits to predict a GOP midterm fizzle. We figured this relative Republican bust couldn’t come at a more opportune time for the nervous nellies of the left, who have watched President JOE BIDEN’s poll numbers stagnate for months despite effort after effort to turn things around. So we called Rosenberg up, and he did not disappoint. “There has been a fairly consistent pattern where Democrats have overperformed expectations, overperformed public polling,” he said. “The single most powerful force in our politics is fear and opposition to MAGA. When the choice of MAGA and other alternatives are presented to voters, MAGA underperforms public polling.” So expect to hear a lot about that from Democrats today, but we also went to NRCC comms director JACK PANDOL for a GOP gut check as the returns came in. He said Republicans are “not sweating it” and Democrats would be “foolish” to draw any lessons for November. “It's a special election. It's off-calendar. Turnout is really low,” he said. “I don't think that it's useful or instructive to try to read into this too much. … We will eviscerate the Democrat with presidential-level turnout, as Republicans have in the past several cycles.”
|  Joe Biden greets his son Hunter Biden at Delaware Air National Guard Base yesterday. | AP | HOW HUNTER COULD HELP — It sent Biden sprinting to Wilmington, Delaware, to hug his son on the tarmac, and it sent observers scrambling to make sense of the political implications of an unprecedented situation — a sitting president’s son convicted on three felony counts. This much we’ve been able to gather in the hours since the jury read HUNTER BIDEN their verdict: It’s hard to find anyone who thinks conviction is going to dramatically change the course of the election. But there are some Democrats who believe it might have a marginal impact — particularly on how his father talks about Trump’s own criminal conviction. In short, his son’s plight could become a coat of armor, they say — a tidy rebuttal to Trump’s omnipresent claims of a rigged “witch hunt” prosecution orchestrated by Biden and his “weaponized” Justice Department. It’s the “silver lining they weren’t looking for,” former Rep. JOE CROWLEY (D-N.Y.) told us. “You can feel bad for the president, which I definitely do, because I love Joe,” he continued. “But at the same time, you can recognize that he's upholding the rule of law and that comes to him at a personal price.” That could very well play out on the presidential debate stage two weeks from tomorrow, as Jonathan Lemire writes, with the verdict potentially emerging as a “focal point” of Biden’s first 2024 showdown with Trump. Not only do some Biden aides acknowledge “that a not guilty verdict for Hunter would have been more problematic politically,” given its potential to fuel Trump’s rigged-system claims, but they believe an open airing of the son’s convictions could redound to his father’s benefit. “Aides to the president are of the mindset that Trump could use the debate to badger Biden as an inadequate father. And privately, there is a faction of advisers who feel the president would be wise to let out his famous temper in response — the logic being that an authentic, forceful rejoinder to an attack on a son who suffered from addiction would resonate with voters.” It makes a certain amount of sense: One of Biden’s most memorable 2020 debate moments was when he responded sharply to Trump’s attacks on Hunter by invoking his late twin brother, BEAU BIDEN, and discussing Hunter’s addiction in heartfelt terms. As Crowley put it, “There's a level on which the American people will look at this and say, ‘I'm a mother, I'm a father. I understand that love.’” The comparatively scattershot GOP response, documented by Lisa Kashinsky and Meridith McGraw, suggests that a strategy of leaning into his son’s conviction might just work, giving the GOP’s “struggle to reconcile what should have been a political win — the criminal conviction of the president’s son — with the guilty verdict rendered against their own standard bearer.” Said GOP strategist JASON ROE to the pair, “It throws a bit of sand in the gears of people suggesting the Biden Department of Justice has been engineered to go after Trump.” He also added that “one feature of the modern Republican Party is ignoring facts that don’t support the argument and sometimes embracing the conspiracy theories that do.” Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Comcast: Did you know that most of the data on your smartphone travels over WiFi, not cellular? Thanks to WiFi innovation by Comcast, our customers connect over a billion devices to our network each year. Unlicensed spectrum is key to a fast and secure WiFi experience at home and on the go. Comcast leads the way by developing cutting-edge WiFi gateways that maximize our multi-gig broadband network and spectrum made available by the FCC. Learn more. | | | (MORE) ABOUT LAST NIGHT — In the night’s most consequential race for November, NRSC- and Trump-backed SAM BROWN crushed JEFF GUNTER by more than 40 points for the Nevada GOP Senate nod. And in the night’s most consequential race for Capitol Hill theatrics, Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) easily dispatched CATHERINE TEMPLETON, who was KEVIN McCARTHY’s hope for revenge over Mace’s vote to oust him as speaker. (Said Mace to NYT’s Annie Karni: “I want to send him back to the rock he’s living under right now. … I hope I drive Kevin McCarthy crazy.”) Rep. WILLIAM TIMMONS (R-S.C.), meanwhile, just barely hung on to his seat, eking out a 3-point victory over primary challenger ADAM MORGAN. And, of course, there was the surprisingly close Ohio special. Other notable results: North Dakota voters passed a constitutional amendment setting the age limit for members of Congress at 80, which is sure to face a legal challenge. … Republican challengers were crowned in a number of competitive House seats held by Dems: AUSTIN THERIAULT in Maine, and MARK ROBERTSON and DREW JOHNSON in Nevada. … Rep. KELLY ARMSTRONG won the GOP gubernatorial race in North Dakota, while Trump-backed JULIE FEDORCHAK scored the nomination to replace him. … The three GOP state senators who took a public stand against South Carolina’s near-total abortion ban all lost or were forced into runoffs. Related read: “Trump still owns the GOP. Here’s what else we learned in Tuesday’s primaries,” by Jessica Piper and Madison Fernandez FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: With Brown officially the nominee in Nevada, Democratic Sen. JACKY ROSEN is quickly going up with her first new ad, which hammers him on abortion. The spot is going up on digital and broadcast in Las Vegas and Reno, with a direct-to-camera story of a woman who had to leave Texas to get an abortion when she suffered complications — and now lives in Nevada. “Before Sam Brown ran for office in Nevada, he ran in Texas,” a narrator says, “where he pushed one of the most extreme abortion bans.” Watch it here TUNE IN TODAY — This morning at Long View Gallery, Sen. JERRY MORAN (R-Kan.), FAA Administrator MICHAEL WHITAKER, Southwest Airlines CEO BOB JORDAN and more talk with POLITICO about how they’re grappling with a series of challenges to the airline industry's future. What can Washington do to ensure passengers and providers are equipped to fly right? Register to attend or watch live
| | | | A message from Comcast: Unlicensed spectrum is key to a fast and secure WiFi experience at home and on the go. Comcast leads the way by developing cutting-edge WiFi gateways that maximize our multi-gig broadband network and spectrum made available by the FCC. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. and take up FERC nominations throughout the day, with a recess for weekly conference meetings. CFPB Director ROHIT CHOPRA will testify before the Banking Committee at 9:45 a.m. CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS and NSA Director Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 10 a.m. The Armed Services Committee and its subcommittees will mark up the National Defense Authorization Act throughout the day. The House will meet at 9 a.m., with votes expected between 10:30 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. The Appropriations Committee will mark up the State-Foreign Operations and Homeland Security bills at 9 a.m. 3 things to watch …
- House Republicans have scheduled a vote early this afternoon to hold AG MERRICK GARLAND in contempt of Congress over his decision to withhold recordings of Biden’s interviews with special counsel ROBERT HUR. But success is not guaranteed: Leaders are “playing it by ear,” one member told Jordain Carney, due to groans from a handful of GOP centrists, including Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.), a former FBI agent who has expressed some discomfort with his party’s campaign against the Justice Department. Expect this to remain a live issue through the morning, possibly beyond.
- The National Defense Authorization Act is also headed to the House floor following a late-night Rules Committee vote, with 350 amendments teed up for debate. Connor O’Brien notes that Republican leaders appear to have calculated that green-lighting some conservative red meat was necessary to get the bill to the floor, though that could endanger Democratic support on final passage. Among the amendments on tap: blocking Pentagon abortion and gender-affirming-care policies, defunding the U.S.-built humanitarian pier in Gaza and several blocking funding for Ukraine and NATO.
- The first pitch of the 91st annual Congressional Baseball Game is scheduled for 7:05 p.m., with Republicans under Manager ROGER WILLIAMS (R-Texas) hoping to extend their three-game winning streak against Democrats managed by Rep. LINDA SANCHEZ (D-Calif.). Their odds look good (literally): Per NOTUS’ reporting, the GOP crew is looking like a finely tuned machine, while the Dems, um, aren’t. The biggest drama, though, might come from the activist group Climate Defiance, which is threatening to shut down the game in protest of the game’s fossil-fuel sponsors. Watch on C-SPAN
At the White House Biden will travel from Wilmington, Delaware, to Fasano, Italy, for the G7 summit. Harris will travel to Charlotte, North Carolina, for a moderated conversation on her “Economic Opportunity Tour” at 12:30 p.m. After returning to Washington, she and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host a Pride reception in the evening.
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|  Donald Trump will visit Capitol Hill tomorrow to meet with House and Senate leadership. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | 2025 DREAMING — Republicans are getting the gang back together this week, as Trump comes to Capitol Hill and members in both chambers coordinate about winning the election and setting a policy agenda for 2025. First up: Johnson will join the Senate GOP’s lunch today, as Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio reported. They’ll be talking about what a budget reconciliation bill would look like that could pass with just GOP votes next year if Republicans win full control of Washington, per Ursula Perano. Then Trump comes to town tomorrow for separate meetings with House and Senate members, his first return to the Hill since he left the White House. Notably, Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL will attend, per NBC’s Frank Thorp V — the first time they’ve met or spoken since 2020. The goal is not just to set policy plans for 2025 but to get on the same page about this fall’s elections, Ursula, Anthony Adragna and Burgess Everett report. (Don’t expect any specific outcomes right away.) Not everybody is on board: Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) said she wouldn’t attend, while Sens. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.), MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah), SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) and BILL CASSIDY (R-La.) weren’t committing yet. But Rep. DAN NEWHOUSE (R-Wash.), who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6, will be there. Trump’s in town tomorrow to speak to the Business Roundtable, while Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN will make a competing pitch to big business in NYC the same day, per Axios’ Hans Nichols. More top reads:
BEYOND THE BELTWAY MEGATREND — Violent crime across the country is continuing to plummet this year. The latest FBI data show a 15 percent drop in the first quarter of the year, as the U.S. settles down from its pandemic-era disruption, WSJ’s Nicholas Hatcher and Robert Barba report. Homicides and rapes fell 26 percent year over year. EYES EMOJI — In recent days, federal authorities arrested several people across LA, NYC and Philadelphia with alleged ties to ISIS, the N.Y. Post’s Jennie Taer scooped. According to CBS’ Andres Triay, Robert Legare, Nicole Sganga, Pat Milton, Camilo Montoya-Galvez, the eight detained were all from Tajikistan. BIG DECISION — “Florida ban on medical treatments for trans kids struck down by judge,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Romy Ellenbogen in Tallahassee AMERICA AND THE WORLD
| 
The White House's John Kirby said the Biden administration is evaluating Hamas' response to a cease-fire proposal. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Hamas finally responded yesterday to the cease-fire deal in its war with Israel that the U.S. has been promoting — but that didn’t end the confusion about both sides’ stances. The militant group’s missive to mediators Qatar and Egypt sought some changes to the agreement, neither accepting nor rejecting it fully. JOHN KIRBY said the Biden administration is in the process of “evaluating” Hamas’ response, per AP’s Matthew Lee and Abby Sewell. Both Israel and Hamas made “positive but vague statements” about the deal while also pointing the finger, NYT’s Michael Crowley, Adam Rasgon and Aaron Boxerman write. Israel nonetheless framed Hamas’ response as a rejection of key components, per Reuters. Among Hamas’ concerns was getting a clearer timeline for the full end of the war and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, to which Israel has been loath to agree, WaPo’s John Hudson, Susannah George, Sarah Dadouch and Jennifer Hassan report. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN continued to emphasize that Hamas was the biggest impediment to a deal and needed to commit, amid new pressure this week from the U.N. Though Israel continues to send mixed signals about the deal in public, Blinken said Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU told him Monday that he supports it. Blinken met with UAE and Palestinian Authority leaders yesterday, announcing a new $404 million for humanitarian relief in Gaza. Top-ed: “Why so many ‘day after’ plans for Gaza amount to no plan at all,” by Nahal Toosi More top reads:
- To Kyiv, with love: “U.S. to Send Another Patriot Missile Battery to Ukraine,” NYT’s Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, Edward Wong and Julian Barnes scooped: “Biden’s decision came last week … after a series of high-level meetings and an internal debate over how to meet Ukraine’s pressing needs for bolstered air defenses without jeopardizing U.S. combat readiness."
- Why the border numbers are lower: “Mexico’s tactic to cut immigration to the US: wear out migrants,” by AP’s Megan Janetsky and Félix Márquez: “[M]igrants are churning in limbo here as authorities round them up across the country and dump them in the southern Mexican cities of Villahermosa and Tapachula.”
| | | | A message from Comcast:   Unlicensed wireless spectrum is key to fast and secure WiFi. Learn more. | | | 2024 WATCH UP FOR DEBATE — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. warned that CNN will breaking federal law if it doesn’t include him in its presidential debate, a notable escalation as he appeals to the FEC to get on the stage: “CNN, and every member of CNN who is participating in planning, executing, and holding this debate, is at risk of prosecution, as happened to MICHAEL COHEN, for violating campaign finance laws,” his campaign declared. CASH DASH — Biden will head to the Hamptons for campaign events, likely on the weekend of June 29, per CNBC’s Brian Schwartz … Trump met last night with Bitcoin miners, who posted online afterward that he committed to supporting their sector, per NYT’s Teddy Schleifer. WHERE BIDEN’S SURPRISINGLY STRONG — “Phone banks and pickleball: How the Biden campaign plans to court older voters,” by NBC’s Mike Memoli: “[T]he campaign is launching Seniors for Biden-Harris, a national organizing initiative … Second gentleman DOUGLAS EMHOFF will help launch the effort with an event on Friday in New Hampshire.” MORE POLITICS OUR DISASTROUS NEW WORLD — “How Republicans used misleading videos to attack Biden in a 24-hour period,” by WaPo’s Toluse Olorunnipa and Adriana Usero: “Such deceptively edited videos, known as ‘cheap fakes,’ have become staples of Republican attacks against the president.” WHAT JARED HUFFMAN IS UP TO — “House Democrats step up to try to stop Project 2025 plans for a Trump White House,” by AP’s Lisa Mascaro: “Huffman’s group … plans to begin briefing fellow lawmakers about Project 2025, hold a forum on Capitol Hill and inform voters about its ideas.” POLICY CORNER CREDIT CHECK — “Biden administration moves to ban medical debt from credit reports,” by NBC’s Rob Wile: “It said affected people’s credit scores would improve an average of 20 points and lead to the approval of about 22,000 additional mortgages every year.” FED UP — The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting today, but the big question is whether central bank officials indicate they’ll go for zero, one or two rate cuts later this year. Preview from the WSJ WHAT JOE MANCHIN IS WATCHING — The FERC cleared the last hurdle for the Mountain Valley Pipeline to get underway, Catherine Morehouse reports. MEDIAWATCH BOOK CLUB — “Is the New York Times bestseller list politically biased?” The Economist: “Our investigation suggests it is.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Steve Bannon is still trying to avoid going to prison. George Santos can go to the Poconos. Harry Sisson is a not-so-secret weapon for Joe Biden on TikTok. Troy Nehls isn’t backing down on his Combat Infantry Badge pin. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a Larry Hogan fundraiser Monday night, held at the home of American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers head Chet Thompson and Candace Thompson: Brian and Alicia Henneberry, Salo Zelermyer, Brendan Williams, Jason Larrabee, Mike Sommers, Mark and Ashlee Stephenson, Chris Jahn, Ryan Jackson, Chris Javens, Johnny DeStefano, Harry Sporidis, Jerry Simmons and David Thompson. — SPOTTED at a fundraiser for Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) last night, featuring Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and hosted by Yebbie Watkins at his home: Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-U.S. Virgin Islands), G.K. Butterfield, Joe Crowley, Ron Klink, Stephen Benjamin, Monalisa Dugué, DeDe Lea, Kenneth Edmonds, Lyndon Boozer, Dontai Smalls, Nicole Venable and Laurie Knight. — Gloria Dittus hosted an event last night for Steven Brill’s new book, “The Death of Truth” ($30), including a conversation moderated by Elaina Plott Calabro. SPOTTED: Jane Adams, Diane Blagman, Katherine Bradley, Sophia Brill, Lyndon Boozer, Margaret Carlson, David Chavern, Francessa Cox, Jessica Strieter Elting, Bart Gordon, Gordon Crovitz, Erik Huey, Jake Jones, Suhail Khan, John McCarthy, Laura Wagner and Cathy Merrill Williams. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Arizona-based Camelback Strategy Group is launching a new national campaign services firm, Sandpiper Strategies. Rick Gorka will be president of both, and Sandpiper Strategies is bringing on longtime GOP political operative Chris Carr as senior adviser. Will Sexauer as political director, Derek Weech as political and data director and Tyler Granato as deputy political director are also moving to Sandpiper Strategies. TRANSITIONS — Ian O’Keefe is now national press secretary at the Progressive Policy Institute. He previously was comms director for Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.). … Roberto Lugones is now press secretary for Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.). He previously worked in Florida AG Ashley Moody’s office. … … Brian Epley is joining the Commerce Department as chief information officer. He previously was principal deputy chief information officer at the Energy Department. … Claire Wengrod is now a professional staff member with the Senate Appropriations Committee, working on FDA and nutrition policy. She previously was health legislative assistant for Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.). WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Amanda Farnan, digital director for Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and a POLITICO alum, and Chris Fuldner, who does CRE sales for CoStar Group, got married Saturday at the Holy Trinity Catholic Church, followed by a reception at the Ritz-Carlton Georgetown. They released two doves symbolizing their families coming together and rode away from the ceremony on a horse and carriage honoring Amanda’s grandfather Charlie Shaffer, who was John Dean’s lawyer in the Watergate trials. The couple met when they both were working at Millie’s. Pic by Lexi Moore … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) … NBC’s Carrie Budoff Brown … Mayra Macías … Dag Vega of BCW Global … Bloomberg’s Kevin Sheekey … Alex Castellanos … … Rabbi Levi Shemtov … U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. for Management and Reform Chris Lu … Lilia Dashevsky … Michael Finnegan of Atlantic Media … Joyce Kazadi ... Eli Zupnick ... Majority Group’s Dan Archer … Matt Wolking … former Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham … Matt Mowers … former Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.) … Peter Schechter … Mort Rosenblum (81) … Coco Pannell … Julie Andreeff Jensen … POLITICO’s Alexandra Pillion … Luis Miranda … Morgan Viña of National Security of America and Invariant Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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