| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BREAKING THIS MORNING — “JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled unanimously that the military must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men for military service, a decision that could lead to the collapse of Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s governing coalition as Israel continues to wage war in Gaza.” TOP-ED — “I’ve Debated Trump and Biden. Here’s What I’m Watching For,” by HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON in the NYT: “From ‘Suffs’ to ‘Hamilton,’ I love theater about politics. But not the other way around. Too often we approach pivotal moments like this week’s debate between President [JOE] BIDEN and DONALD TRUMP like drama critics. We’re picking a president, not ‘best actor.’” SPOILER ALERT — Today POLITICO launches an interactive ballot access tracker to follow the progress of four key third-party candidates — independents ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and CORNEL WEST, plus Libertarian Party nominee CHASE OLIVER and Green Party nominee JILL STEIN — as they seek to make as many ballots as possible in November. “Getting on the ballot is arduous, expensive and bureaucratic, and every state has different requirements,” our colleagues Brittany Gibson, Steven Shepard, Isabella Ramírez and Jared Mitovich write. “That’s why we’re tracking who’s on the ballot, where and why it matters.”
|  Rep. Jamaal Bowman during a Get Out the Vote campaign event at Hartley Park on June 24, 2024, in Mount Vernon, New York. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images | WESTCHESTER WIPEOUT? — Since ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ & Co. first came to Washington in 2019, just about everyone in the House Democratic Caucus has been eager to see the Squad taken down a peg. The reasons are pretty much exactly what you’d expect in an institution frequently compared to high school: Jealousy of their fame. Frustration with their tactics. Fear of their grassroots pull. After five years of flying high, however, the Squad’s first sign of comeuppance might finally have come: If political prognosticators in today’s New York primaries are correct, the high-profile progressive clique is about to say goodbye to one of their own: Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN might just need an Election Day miracle to keep his seat. It’s a surprising turn of events for about a million reasons. For one, Bowman in 2020 unseated then-House Foreign Affairs Chairman ELIOT ENGEL in part by portraying him as too closely tied to Israel and too indulgent of its right-wing government. Now it’s Bowman, after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, who is on the defensive over his Israel views. There’s also the unusual age and racial dynamics: Bowman, a 48-year-old Black former middle school principal, was seen as emblematic of a new and diverse generation of Democratic political talent. He’s at risk of being replaced by Westchester County Executive GEORGE LATIMER, who is 70, white and a proud practitioner of old-school retail politics. The entire race has been dominated by a narrative pitting progressives vs. AIPAC, with the pro-Israel lobby group pouring nearly $15 million into its effort to oust Bowman through its affiliate, United Democracy Project, making the race, at $25 million and counting, the most expensive House primary in history. Truth be told, the more complete story of the race is how Bowman showed weaknesses that Latimer, AIPAC and others have easily leveraged against him, whether it’s the infamous fire alarm incident, revelations of long-ago comments about 9/11 being an inside job and, most of all, his string of incendiary comments about the Hamas attacks and the ensuing war in Gaza that have fueled accusations of antisemitism against him. In the waning days of the primary, Bowman has done little to course-correct. Rather than patch things up inside his district, he rallied with AOC and Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) in an event held outside its borders. “We are gonna show fucking AIPAC the power of the motherfucking South Bronx,” declared Bowman, who does not represent the South Bronx. As our New York Playbook colleague Emily Ngo told us, the last-minute campaigning with the nationally prominent progressives might have just reinforced the knock against him — that he has been more interested in national notoriety than the nitty-gritty of representing his district. “That makes him look even more detached from the spaces that he's supposed to be representing,” Emily told us for this morning’s Daily Briefing podcast. “It helps him hype up his base … his last chance at what could be a win. But it doesn't help him necessarily combat the image that he's not tied deeply to the district.” To be sure, Bowman could still shock the New York political world and mount an improbable comeback, generating an unexpected Election Day turnout of the sort of young, progressive and diverse voters he has been courting. But Bowman’s efforts to use the windfall of spending against him as a rallying point appears to have fallen flat. Polls have shown Bowman trailing Latimer by double digits, with one recent poll putting him down 17 points. Early-voting numbers circulating yesterday showed strong turnout in affluent (and heavily White and Jewish) corners of Westchester County and poor showings in the more diverse areas that powered Bowman to his 2020 win. “Voters … want leaders, not performance artists,” Democratic strategist LIS SMITH recently told Emily. Should Bowman lose, the real drama might only be beginning. After months of prodding the Squad’s vulnerabilities — trying and failing to promote challenges to the likes of Reps. SUMMER LEE (D-Pa.), ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) and RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.) — AIPAC and its allies could find themselves suddenly on the march, with Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) and her August primary next in their sights. The race could quickly go from perfect encapsulation of the tensions playing out in the Democratic Party over Israel to a cautionary tale for the party’s far-left flank. Somewhere, Eliot Engel could have the last laugh. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook, and sorry, Canada, there’s always next year. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute: For nearly four years, Americans have faced the pain of high inflation and global conflict. During this week’s presidential debate, voters want to hear how leaders will secure our nation’s energy future and provide relief to consumers and their families.
The American Petroleum Institute’s Policy Roadmap contains five actions policy makers can take today to secure energy leadership, protect consumers and help reduce inflation. Americans deserve answers, starting with the question below. | | | OTHER RACES TO WATCH: Since Democrats’ path to flipping the House majority runs through New York, also keep an eye on the following tonight … — In NY-01, out on eastern Long Island, former CNN personality JOHN AVLON and chemistry professor NANCY GOROFF are facing off for the opportunity to take on GOP Rep. NICK LaLOTA in a Biden-carried district. While Goroff has blasted Avlon for working under RUDY GIULIANI when he was mayor, she has her own issues that make some Dems wary: In 2020, she loaned her campaign $2 million but still lost to then-GOP Rep. LEE ZELDIN by 10 points. — In NY-22, in and around Syracuse, state Sen. JOHN MANNION and Air Force vet SARAH KLEE HOOD will duke it out to face down Rep. BRANDON WILLIAMS, the most vulnerable New York Republican. The race, however, has been fairly quiet, at least until a late-breaking scandal where former staffers have accused Mannion of presiding over a toxic workplace, which he has denied. — We ran down a long list of mostly GOP races in Colorado and Utah you should be watching yesterday but here’s another Republican-on-Republican House contest worth noting: the runoff in South Carolina’s 3rd District for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Rep. JEFF DUNCAN. Watch if SHERI BIGGS, an Air National Guard colonel running with the support of Gov. HENRY McMASTER and other establishment bigs, can hold off far-right pastor MARK BURNS, who once called for the execution of Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM, who once held the seat he is now seeking. LIVE EVENT: SECURING SUPPLY CHAINS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE — Can the U.S. keep China out of its most sensitive supply chains? What about insider threats? Join POLITICO tomorrow for conversations (and cocktails to follow) on how the U.S. is staying ahead of threats to critical infrastructure. Hear from the Army’s top weapons buyer, Assistant Secretary DOUG BUSH, DNI supply chain and cyber watchdog JEANETTE McMILLIAN, CISA Executive Director BRANDON WALES, Reps. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.) and JAKE ELLZEY (R-Texas), Aerospace Industries Association President and CEO ERIC FANNING and many other defense and intelligence community leaders. Doors open at 5 p.m. RSVP and info here
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at noon and will take up several bills at 2 p.m., with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will take up the Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations and Defense appropriations bills at 2 p.m. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON will swear in new Rep. MICHAEL RULLI (R-Ohio) at 6:50 p.m. MICHAEL PHELPS, ALLISON SCHMITT and TRAVIS TYGART will testify before an Energy and Commerce subcommittee at 7 p.m. The Senate is out. 3 things to watch … - We’ve come to that point of the interbranch standoff: inherent contempt! Hardcore students of congressional investigations will know that’s shorthand for the theory that the House could self-enforce its contempt powers without relying on executive branch officials, as is typically the case. It came up during Democrats’ investigations of the Trump administration in 2019 and 2020, and now it’s being floated again by Rep. ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-Fla.) as a way to get AG MERRICK GARLAND to hand over tapes of Biden with special counsel ROBERT HUR. Expect a vote Friday; Jordain Carney and Katherine Tully-McManus lay out all the reasons it’s going nowhere.
- With the Rules Committee expected to start teeing up a trio of spending bills later today, the White House yesterday issued veto threats on all three — Defense, Homeland Security and State-Foreign Operations. “House Republicans are again wasting time with partisan bills that would result in deep cuts to law enforcement, education, housing, healthcare, consumer safety, energy programs that lower utility bills and combat climate change, and essential nutrition services,” the policy memos read, while also noting that the Biden administration “stands ready to engage … in a bipartisan appropriations process” — a process that likely won’t happen till November at the earliest.
- The House Ethics Committee has been busy: After last week’s unusual statement about Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), the panel yesterday issued more standard-bore disclosures about a pair of Texas Republicans, Reps. WESLEY HUNT and RONNY JACKSON, who both stand accused of using their campaign accounts to pay private club dues. Neither member is cooperating with the Office of Congressional Ethics, whose probes have now been referred to the committee for an indefinite review. More from Nicholas Wu
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS will have a press call with acting HUD Secretary ADRIANNE TODMAN to announce new action on housing at 2:30 p.m.
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Julian Assange speaks to the media from the balcony of the Embassy Of Ecuador on May 19, 2017, in London, England. | Jack Taylor/Getty Images | END OF THE SAGA — JULIAN ASSANGE has struck a plea deal with the U.S. government and is expected to return free to his native Australia after getting credit for the five years he spent in prison in the U.K., per CBS’ Robert Legare and Caitlin Yilek. It’s a sudden conclusion to the WikiLeaks founder’s yearslong legal entanglement with the U.S. over his group’s disclosure of national security secrets, which Assange has long maintained was an act of journalism, not treason. He is set to plead guilty in the Northern Mariana Islands to one court of conspiracy to obtain and disclose national defense information; DOJ recommended a sentence of 62 months, which Assange has already served. WikiLeaks announced yesterday that Assange had left London on his way to the Pacific; his wife STELLA ASSANGE said this morning he will “fly into US airspace where he will appear before a US judge.” Assange became a household name worldwide throughout the 2010s, after WikiLeaks published classified information about the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, then dropped a trove of stolen emails that damaged HILLARY CLINTON in the 2016 campaign. His plea deal was celebrated by the likes of ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., though some civil liberties advocates bemoaned the fact that he was convicted at all. More from Josh Gerstein and Samantha Latson How it’s playing in Oz: Said Australian PM ANTHONY ALBANESE, speaking overnight, “I've been very clear … that regardless of the views that people have about Mr. Assange's activities, the case has dragged on for too long, there is nothing to be gained by his continued incarceration and we want him brought home to Australia.” POLICY CORNER MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT — Surgeon General VIVEK MURTHY today is labeling gun violence a public health crisis in America, issuing the type of advisory that has sometimes shifted the course of public health history, Erin Schumaker reports. It has unleashed “a large-scale cycle of trauma and fear that’s damaging Americans’ mental health, making children fearful of going to school and adults of going to public places.” Murthy calls on Congress to take action to stop the bloodshed, including universal background checks, as part of his broader, assertive public campaign to improve Americans’ mental health. BANK ON IT — “Federal Reserve Floats Weaker Version of Planned Bank-Capital Overhaul,” by Bloomberg’s Katanga Johnson WAPO GETS RESULTS — “Social Security to drop obsolete jobs used to deny disability benefits,” by WaPo’s Lisa Rein ALL POLITICS
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Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) speaks with reporters as he departs a vote at the U.S. Capitol June 12, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | NOT LOOKING GOOD — A week out from the Virginia GOP primary contest between Rep. BOB GOOD and JOHN McGUIRE, we still don’t have an official winner — and the AP said yesterday that the final margin isn’t likely to exceed potential recount territory (within 1 percent). McGuire’s margin has ticked slightly up since last week, with his lead now at 373 votes. That’ll be tough (though not impossible) for Good to make up. He’s not backing down, saying on Steve Bannon’s podcast yesterday that he would “try to block certification” next month as he raised questions about drop boxes in Lynchburg, per NBC. The city responded yesterday that a small procedural error had affected fewer than 10 ballots. McGuire, meanwhile, projected his victory as inevitable, per Madison Fernandez, while his would-be Republican colleagues on the Hill have finally found an election denier they don’t like: Axios’ Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke report that many GOP members of Congress are rolling their eyes at Good’s claims of fraud. More top reads:
- Megatrend: Though public support for same-sex marriage and relations continues to be fairly high, it is dropping noticeably among Republicans, the latest Gallup survey finds. GOP approval of same-sex marriage is down 9 points in the past two years.
- Dirty tricks: A super PAC that has supported Democrats is running ads that encourage Pennsylvania Republicans to listen to Trump and not vote early, per The Federalist’s M.D. Kittle.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute:   | | | 2024 WATCH DEMOCRACY WATCH — WaPo’s Hannah Allam reports this fascinating status quo: Political violence is currently in one of its greatest ebbs in years, despite the election heating up. But researchers say that’s partially because many Trump-supporting extremists believe he’ll win — and the situation could change if he doesn’t. Online threats are still pretty loud. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Human Rights Campaign is bringing on GUY CECIL as chief strategist of its Equality Vote PAC’s 2024 electoral efforts. The Priorities USA and DSCC alum will steer the LGBTQ+ advocacy organization’s ad campaigns, which kick off today with its first digital ad ahead of the debate. The spot presents Trump as a direct threat to queer Americans and urges them to “take him at his word.” It will run in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and D.C. NARRATIVE CORRECTIVE — Though there’s been plenty of public attention to a handful of business elites who have thrown their support to Trump, there’s “little evidence of a major shift in allegiance among executives away from Mr. Biden and toward Mr. Trump,” NYT’s Ben Casselman, Jim Tankersley, Sydney Ember and Theodore Schleifer report. YASS KING — “How Jeff Yass Became One of the Most Influential Billionaires in the 2024 Election,” by Bloomberg Businessweek’s Annie Massa: “In [JEFF YASS]’ idealized version of the future, America looks like a perpetual Texas Hold ’em tournament with 333 million players. The gambler in the best position at the table — and perhaps with the biggest bankroll — wins.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  Fires and black smoke rise from between the houses of the northern Israeli border town of Metula, which hit by Hezbollah shelling, is seen from the Lebanese side of the town of Marjayoun, June 22, 2024. | Hussein Malla/AP | QUITE THE WARNING — If one massive Middle East war wasn’t enough, U.S. officials are increasingly preparing for an Israeli-Hezbollah conflict to blow up in the coming weeks with a big Israeli strike, Nahal Toosi, Erin Banco and Lara Seligman report. That prompted the Biden administration to send Hezbollah an unusual message, warning indirectly that the U.S. can’t or won’t get Israel to step back in that case. The goal, conveyed indirectly to the militia, is to incentivize Hezbollah to de-escalate the growing tensions now — because Washington will back Israel in a war — even though some officials see escalation as inevitable. The American fear is that a bigger regional war could ensue if Israel-Hezbollah spirals, though the U.S. still thinks neither Israel nor Iran wants all-out war, nor does Hezbollah. But the risk of a miscalculation looms. U.S. envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN and other officials are also focused on “injecting reality into Netanyahu’s calculations,” one U.S. official tells our colleagues. Another form of deja vu: The Houthi rebels’ monthslong campaign of attacks on ships in the Red Sea, motivated by Israel’s attacks on Palestinians, is now threatening to snarl global supply chains not long after they were finally untangled from pandemic-era disruptions, NYT’s Peter Goodman reports. TRUMP CARDS CANNON FODDER — “Special counsel falters in push to limit Trump’s attacks on FBI agents,” by WaPo’s Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein in Fort Pierce, Florida: “Federal prosecutors struggled to present a compelling case Monday for new restrictions on Donald Trump that would bar him from publicly attacking law enforcement officials … U.S. District Judge AILEEN M. CANNON did not immediately rule on the motion to add a new condition to Trump’s bail.” 2025 DREAMING — “Nothing will rival the Trump Hotel,” but Axios’ Anna Spiegel runs down the D.C.-area spots that could become centers of power and conversation if Trump returns to the White House. Among the locations floated: Capital Grille, Fogo de Chao, the Willard hotel, CXIII REX and the Big Board. MEDIAWATCH WHAT’S UP AT WAPO — “Washington Post Publisher Says He Aided Hack Inquiry. Scotland Yard Had Doubts,” by NYT’s Jo Becker and Justin Scheck: “[A]lmost from the beginning, investigators with London’s Metropolitan Police were suspicious of News Corporation’s intentions, and came to view [WILL] LEWIS as an impediment.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Michael McCaul is not happy about Derek Chollet’s Pentagon job. Kristina Karamo is asking the courts to reinstall her as chair of the Michigan GOP. Troy Nehls still isn’t eligible to wear the Combat Infantryman Badge. Josh Duggar was rejected by the Supreme Court. Jay Johnston, aka Jimmy Pesto Sr., is set to plead guilty to Jan. 6-related crimes. Ed Burke was sentenced to two years in prison. IN MEMORIAM — Former President Barack Obama delivered a eulogy for Marian Robinson, mother to former first lady Michelle Obama, yesterday at South Shore Cultural Center in Chicago, Shia Kapos reports. First lady Jill Biden attended the private memorial service. Michelle Obama and her brother, Craig Robinson, delivered a welcome message, according to a spokesperson for the family. OUT AND ABOUT — Dean Norris, in town with the Creative Coalition to spotlight family caregiving with AARP on the Hill, joined the-all female bipartisan “Dine ‘n Dish” group at Cafe Milano last night. SPOTTED: Pat Harrison, Robin Bronk, Janet Donovan, Sara Bonjean, Nikki Schwab, Barbara Harrison, Judy Kurtz, Ann Klenk, Enid Doggett, Gloria Dittus, JoAnn Mason, Susan Blumenthal, Marie Royce, Robin Leeds and Alyssa Dudek. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — American Compass is announcing several changes and new hires as the conservative think tank expands. Oren Cass will become chief economist and is launching a new Substack, Understanding America. Abigail Ball is taking over as executive director. Mark DiPlacido is joining as policy adviser, and Drew Holden is joining as managing editor. American Compass is also relaunching its publication The Commons. MEDIA MOVE — Charlotte Klein is joining N.Y. Mag as a features writer covering the media. She previously was a media reporter at Vanity Fair. TRANSITIONS — Robin Juliano is now policy director for House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.). She previously was staff director for the House Appropriations Committee and is an Obama NEC and Barbara Mikulski alum. … James Winner is now comms director for Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.). He previously was press secretary for Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.). … Diana Marin is joining JPMorgan as a VP and public affairs comms manager on their corporate responsibility team. She previously was deputy comms director for Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.). … … Sara Shah is now deputy chief of staff of the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Commerce Department. She most recently got a master’s in international policy, cyber policy and security at Stanford, and previously was special assistant to DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. … Brian Couch is joining ADVOC8 as head of agency. He previously was EVP of growth at SoHo Experiential. … David Bader is now comms director for Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.). He previously was deputy comms director for Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.). WEEKEND WEDDING — Casin Spero, VP of government relations at Lobbyit and a Trump VA and Labor Department alum, and Maria Papakonstantinou, comms consultant at MKP Strategies and a Mehmet Oz, Neil Cavuto and Buddy Carter alum, got married Saturday at the Plaza Hotel in NYC. They met through mutual friend Maria Giannopoulos and had their first date at dLeña. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Sean Doocey, Cam Henderson, Emma Doyle, Peter O’Rourke, Dan Hanlon, Jenna LaMagna, Sasha Mitchell-Fuller, Cheryl Crowley, Bryn McCarthy, Lindsey Curnutte and Jeff Naft, Harry Fones, Cate Dillon and Ashley Mocarski. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Emily Stephenson, deputy managing editor at The Assembly and a POLITICO, WSJ and Reuters alum, and Brian Austin, a senior data scientist at Ledger Investing, on June 18 welcomed Edwin Henry Austin, who came in at 9 lbs, 12 oz and joins big sisters Adeline and Maisie. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Sonia Sotomayor (7-0) … CNN’s Betsy Klein … Alan McQuinn … POLITICO’s Willa Plank, Emma Anderson and Hank Hoffman … Josh Lahey … Annika Christensen of the Senate Homeland Security Dems … Kamran Daravi … John Randall of Burson … Abbie Sorrendino … Narrative Strategies’ Patrick O’Connor … Danielle Doheny … Matt Felling of Sen. Angus King’s (I-Maine) office … Dan Meyers of APCO Worldwide … Ryan Long … Bully Pulpit Interactive’s Scott Zumwalt … John Fisher … Ned Monroe of the Vinyl Institute … former Reps. Leonard Lance (R-N.J.) and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-Mich.) … Taylor Haulsee of Speaker Mike Johnson’s office … Patreon’s Laurent Crenshaw Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute: For nearly four years, the American people have faced the pain of high inflation and global conflict. Now, more than ever, it’s time to end political gamesmanship. Let’s work together on solutions that help American consumers and secure our energy future.
At a time of persistent inflation and geopolitical instability, the American people need more affordable energy and less partisanship. Here are five actions policymakers can take now that will make a difference.
a. Protect consumer choice
b. Bolster geopolitical strength
c. Leverage our abundant natural resources
d. Reform our broken permitting system
e. Advance sensible tax policy
Let’s work together on solutions that help address the consequences of inflation, while securing America’s energy future. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
