MIDTOWN SHOCK — DON STEWART is Toronto's newest MP, a Conservative in what is now the former Liberal fortress of Toronto-St. Paul's. — RESULT: Stewart pulled off the upset that CONNOR MCDAVID could not on Monday night, racking up 42.1 percent of the vote in the Toronto-St. Paul's by-election compared to 40.5 percent for LESLIE CHURCH, the favored Liberal. The NDP managed 10.9 percent, ahead of the fourth-place Greens at 2.9 percent. — Razor-thin win: Stewart's margin of victory was 590 votes. Turnout was 43.5 percent, a decent level of engagement for an early-summer by-election. — There goes the narrative: As most election-watchers turned in on Monday night, Church appeared on track for a slim win. The late-night headlines veered toward ho-hum: Canadian team loses in Cup final. Liberals win in Toronto. The polls turned after the clock struck 4 a.m. This was all in line with PAUL WELLS' reliable first rule of Canadian politics: "For any given situation, Canadian politics will tend toward the least exciting possible outcome." There was reason to believe Church would pull it out. JENNI BYRNE, a senior adviser to PIERRE POILIEVRE with a reputation for putting in the work on by-elections, told CBC News the Tories wouldn't win. Talk about artificially lowered expectations. Wells appeared to be first among media-types to call it for Church, hitting send on an election-night missive at 11:45 p.m. A few hours later, he'd added an important note of uncertainty. Shortly after, the unofficial results were in. — Big questions: They don't come much bigger than this. In the absence of overt calls by party insiders for the prime minister to resign, the pundits will be relentless. They'll say Trudeau's time is up, and the St. Paul's stunner proves it. The countdown is on for the first Liberal MP to call for an overdue walk in the, er, sand. → Tell us what you think should happen next . Don't be shy. — Rally the troops: Trudeau isn't retreating from the Greater Toronto Area this week. He's currently planning to lean into the crucial electoral battleground with a pair of party fundraisers. → Brampton: The PM will meet donors at Dreams Convention Centre on Thursday alongside Cabmin and local MP KAMAL KHERA. → Mississauga: Friday is for Markham-Unionville MP PAUL CHIANG, who hosts Trudeau for an evening event at the Hilton Toronto/Markham Suites Conference Centre & Spa. For the record, 338Canada gives the Liberals the edge in Khera's riding. The poll aggregator shades Chiang's seat in CPC blue. — Voices heard: Dozens of independent candidates joined the by-election ballot in support of the Longest Ballot Initiative, a grassroots campaign against Canada's first-past-the-post voting system. The LBI brigade expanded enough to create the largest-ever ballot, which delayed results on Monday night. The independents scooped up 894 combined votes — 2.4 percent of the total. — Early poll blues: Ah, the futile, feverish refreshing of live results as the first returns of the night trickled in. A useless, time-honored tradition. As tiny totals slowly increase in a vacuum, they're potentially meaningless to the outcome — and nearly impossible to interpret without context. Imagine a world in which election-watchers knew which polls had reported in real time. How did high-income Forest Hillers swing? What about renter-heavy neighborhoods? Can Elections Canada visualize poll-by-poll results on e-night? Tell us we're not alone in this desire. Seriously, email us with your thoughts . | 
