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Jun 13, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will read the unredacted NSICOP report today, making PIERRE POILIEVRE the only leader not to do so.

→ The state of play as G7 leaders debate frozen Russian assets.

→ Why Canada's powerful ag lobby groups are targeting capital gains changes.

DRIVING THE DAY


JOIN THE CLUB Later this afternoon NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will become the latest party leader to weigh in on the uncensored version of the bombshell NSICOP report on foreign interference.

With Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET working on security clearance, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will soon become the lone leader not to see it.

— Senate could be next: Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY made reading the unredacted NSICOP report look cool. Natch, the Senate wants a go, too.

Independent Sen. REBECCA PATTERSON pressed Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC at committee to allow Senate caucus leaders to get the appropriate security clearances. LeBlanc did not expressly commit to it, but said he’d work with Sen. MARC GOLD and the Privy Council Office to see if he could make it happen.

— Outside looking in: LeBlanc said it’s “insidious” that “those who are seeking to undermine public confidence in our democracies would be pleased” with the political discussion in Canada that's become about whether “Senator so-and-so or MP so-and-so” aided a foreign government.

He stopped short of giving into Sen. CLAUDE CARIGNAN’s demand to give an ongoing public inquiry the power to publicly name MPs who cooperated with foreign governments.

NSICOP Chair DAVID MCGUINTY, watching his words, spent nearly half an hour scrumming with media outside of the caucus room, warning the report wasn’t meant to focus solely on lawmakers — and that broad swaths of society, from NGOs to media to boardrooms and community groups, are also being targeted by foreign actors.

— Buckle up: LeBlanc said Canadians could soon witness foreign meddling in real time.

“I think, sadly, the presidential election in the United States may give us a front-row seat on how some countries will seek, with disinformation and other tactics, to shake the confidence of people in great democracies,” he told the Senate national security committee, when noting the issue comes up regularly with other Five Eyes partners.

“The American secretary of Homeland Security, Secretary [ALEJANDRO] MAYORKAS, talked to me about this as recently as two weeks ago. They are also seeing hostile state actors attempting to destabilize the confidence of their citizens in democratic institutions.”

— In related news: The Globe's MARIEKE WALSH and KRISTY KIRKUP report: House of Commons expected to pass foreign-interference bill as civil-liberties groups raise alarm.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, is welcomed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during a G7 world leaders summit at Borgo Egnazia, Italy, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is welcomed to the G7 today by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. | AP

RUSSIAN ASSETS — G7 leaders will use their annual confab to try to hammer out a plan for billions in frozen Russian central bank assets. The White House set the stage this week for a deal of some kind.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, who arrived in southern Italy yesterday ahead of the gathering, is onboard with seizing frozen assets to power Kyiv's war effort and reconstruction.

Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND has for months lobbied any ally who will listen to her pitch on transferring assets. But Canada controls a small portion of them.

The roadblocks are in Europe, where allies who hold the bulk of them risk the consequences of actually taking them.

— Reading the tea leaves: U.S. national security spokesperson JOHN KIRBY offered no specifics when he teased details. "You're going to see unanimity here at the G7 when it comes to working towards using these frozen assets to help Ukraine with their reconstruction," Kirby said this week. "I'll leave it at that."

He didn't quite leave it at that. "The only way this works is if we do have participation and support from other nations," Kirby added.

— How to fund a war: On the eve of the summit, POLITICO's GREGORIO SORGI and JAKOB HANKE VELA reported from Brussels that a deal was far from certain.

"A major rift has emerged between the U.S. and European governments over a plan to secure a massive loan for Ukraine ― leaving negotiations to run past this week's G7 summit and perilously close to the U.S. election," they wrote Tuesday.

The American plan would see allies extend a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, paid back using profits generated by the Russian assets.

A senior European diplomat was rather turned off by the proposal.

“What Washington is proposing is, 'We [the U.S.] take a loan, Europe takes all the risk, you [Europe] pay the interest, and we [the U.S.] use the money for a U.S.-Ukraine fund,” the diplomat said. “We might be stupid but we’re not that stupid.”

— An alternate view: The Globe and Mail's ERIC REGULY was more optimistic that Italian PM GIORGIA MELONI could "oversee a breakthrough on the Ukraine file."

— Also on Trudeau’s agenda: Countering foreign interference and disinformation. Canada is seeking to expand the Rapid Response Mechanism it launched in 2018 by adding more partners.

— Unprecedented sprawl:The Canadian Press quotes JOHN KIRTON, head of the G7 research group at the University of Toronto, saying: “It’s an unprecedentedly large, interconnected, complex and demanding agenda.”

The G7 to-do list includes the energy transition, AI, immigration and engagement with Africa.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR


FARMER REVOLT — Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND faces a powerful foe in her fight for capital gains tax hikes: farmers who know how to build alliances.

For weeks, Canada's grain growers lobby group teamed up with farm tax accountants to sketch out the impact of a proposed increase to the capital gains inclusion rate on farming families when younger generations take over the business from aging parents.

A few Excel formulas later, they had their answers and armed themselves with case studies.

— Dear minister: On June 6, Grain Growers of Canada Executive Director KYLE LARKIN fired off a letter to Freeland with the findings.

The new rules would hit "nearly every grain farm" across the country, Larkin wrote, because most farmers will have exceeded the government's expanded C$1.25 million lifetime capital gains exemption — which itself can't keep pace with rising property values.

An Ontario farmer who owns 800 acres, they said, would be forced to fork over a million dollars more than under the old rules.

— Showing their work: The grain growers, who added a digital advocacy campaign to their arsenal this week, sent Playbook the spreadsheet powering their advocacy.

The lobby group pegged the capital gains tax on that hypothetical Ontarian farmer's land at C$4.9 million — a 30 percent increase over the C$3.8 million owing under the old rules.

— Insert talking point: For all of PIERRE POILIEVRE's tough talk about "utterly useless" lobbyists in Ottawa, it's not like the Conservative leader is freezing them all out.

Poilievre picks and chooses the arguments that pass his smell test.

Farmers are in Poilievre's good graces. He recently met with the grain growers, leaving the catch-up with a toy combine adorned with the lobby group's branding.

When the grain growers came out against cap gains changes, Conservatives weaved the grief into their rhetoric.

After weeks of uncertainty about how the party would vote on capital gains, a new Conservative data-harvesting callout complained that JUSTIN TRUDEAU is "hiking taxes again on farmers during a food cost crisis."

Tory MPs BRAD VIS and JOHN BARLOW cited the grain growers' data on the House floor.

— Freeland's response: "Mr. Speaker, as the daughter of a farmer, I understand our farmers' situation," she told the Commons in response to a question from Tory MP LUC BERTHOLD. The minister insisted the expanded lifetime exemption would help farmers.

The Official Opposition has demanded meetings on the topic.

→ The IMF's take: A Canadian visit by International Monetary Fund staff this week produced a report with plenty of fodder for Liberals. Including this, on cap gains:

"The increase in the capital gains inclusion rate improves the tax system’s neutrality with respect to different forms of capital income and is likely to have no significant impact on investment or productivity growth."

— Shades of C-234: Multilateral institutions, schmultilateral schminstitutions.

A carbon levy carveout for farmers is caught in limbo. Tory MP BEN LOBB's Bill C-234 is stuck in the House following Senate amendments. But its advocates are now lining up in opposition to Freeland's eventual capital gains legislation.

The Canadian Federation of Agriculture added its voice. Same for the Canadian Canola Growers Association. Senators have taken notice. Sen. ROBERT BLACK, chair of the agriculture committee, posted on X that ag "is on the losing side again!" Sen. PAMELA WALLIN also carped about the proposals.

— Rant of the day: "The minister who cried capital gains", a TIM POWERS opinion column published Wednesday by The Hill Times.

— What it all means: Liberals are clearly comfortable racking up opponents on core issues. It's not every day tech investors, doctors and farmers sing from the same songbook. Freeland's crew is certain of their math on the cap gains file. They insist only the super-rich will pay more under the new scheme.

The nation's tax accountants will sort it out soon enough. No pressure, nerds.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Italy for the G7 summit.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Montreal where she will make a housing announcement and hold a media availability at 1:15 p.m. She will be joined by Tourism Minister SORAYA MARTINEZ FERRADA.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not released his public itinerary.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will hold a presser at 3:15 p.m. after reading the NSICOP report.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Parliament. May will participate in a fundraising event during the evening.

DULY NOTED


— Defense Minister BILL BLAIR is in Brussels for two days of meetings with NATO counterparts ahead of the alliance's Washington summit next month.

— Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND will make an announcement in the House of Commons foyer at 9:30 a.m.

— Labor and Seniors Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN delivers lunchtime remarks at the Canadian Club Toronto on "growth, productivity and the care economy."

MEDIA ROOM


— The "POLITICO Tech" pod attended the U.S.-Canada Summit, hosted by BMO Financial Group and Eurasia Group.

Host STEVEN OVERLY moderated a discussion on artificial intelligence, with Cohere CEO MARTIN KON, OpenAI vice president of government affairs ANNA MAKANJU, IBM chief privacy and trust officer CHRISTINA MONTGOMERY and Radical Ventures co-founder and managing partner JORDAN JACOBS. On the show today, key takeaways from that conversation.

— Top of CBC NEWS this morning: NDP MP NIKI ASHTON, who is rarely on Parliament Hill, billed taxpayers for travel with family over Christmas.

So much for a backup plan: "The POLITICO/Morning consult poll reveals that only a third of voters think it’s likely KAMALA HARRIS would win an election were she to become the Democratic nominee, and just three of five Democrats believe she would prevail."

Still south of the border: "The Southern Baptist Convention, the largest and most politically powerful Protestant denomination in the U.S., voted Wednesday to oppose in vitro fertilization." POLITICO reports.

— The Wall Street Journal's PAUL VIEIRA takes stock of the latest "Team Canada" charm offensive aimed at an election-year American audience.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to TONY BURMAN, former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News, as well as former Bloc Québécois MP JEAN-YVES LAFOREST and former Alberta MLA ROB ANDERSON.

HBD + 1 to Grain Growers of Canada ED KYLE LARKIN.

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Spotted: Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, taping a live podcast interview with doctor, health sciences dean and former Cabmin JANE PHILPOTT. Also in the Toronto church basement: free popcorn.

Movers and shakers: ALANA BAKER is starting a new gig as VP of advocacy and government relations at the Canadian Medical Association … DALE RICHARDSON joined Earnscliffe Strategies as a Saskatchewan-based principalDYLAN HELLWIG is now manager of government relations at Food, Health & Consumer Products of Canada.

DAVID BRAZIL, the former Newfoundland and Labrador PC leader, wants to run for the federal Conservatives in St. John's East.

From the ethics files: Tourism Minister SORAYA MARTINEZ FERRADA recused herself from Cabinet conversations "regarding the appointment of my friend MARC BEAUDET to the board of directors of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation."

PROZONE


Don’t miss our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers via KYLE DUGGAN: Foreign actors welcome 'so-and-so' debate, LeBlanc says.

In other headlines for Pros:

EU election results loom over Ukraine aid discussions.

House appropriators send State Department funding bill to the floor.

House advances defense bill as GOP leans into culture wars.

Schumer: Republican IRA repeal threat is 'very real.'

U.S. broadens scope of Russian export controls ahead of G7 summit.

ON THE HILL


Find House committees here.

Keep track of Senate committees here.

8 a.m. The Senate national security committee will be up early to study Bill C-70. Included on the roster of witnesses it will hear from as it studies the foreign interference legislation: MP MICHAEL CHONG, CHARLES BURTON, CRAIG FORCESE of the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency, former ambassador GUY SAINT-JACQUES and TREVOR NEIMAN of the Business Council of Canada.

8:15 a.m. The Commons justice committee convenes to consider the appointment of GEORGE DOLHAI as director of public prosecutions.

9:15 a.m. The House official languages committee continues its study into funding for minority-language post-secondary institutions.

9:15 a.m. The Senate environment committee will study Bill C-49. 

11 a.m. The House transport committee continues its study into the Competition Act and air travel in rural and remote communities and hears from the Canadian Airports Council.

11 a.m. The House health committee hears from medical experts on breast cancer screening guidelines.

11 a.m. The House procedure committee hears from MPs JAMES BEZAN, GARNETT GENUIS, JOHN MCKAY, TOM KMIEC, STEPHANIE KUSIE and JUDY SGRO on cyber attacks targeting MPs.

11 a.m. The Commons finance committee hears from experts on high housing costs.

11:30 a.m. The Senate social affairs committee takes Bill C-58 through clause-by-clause study.

11:45 a.m. Bill S-15 will undergo clause-by-clause study at the Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee.

3:30 p.m. The House natural resources committee meets to study Canada’s electricity grid.

3:30 p.m. The House environment committee hauls top banking brass in front of them (virtually) to talk about how climate change will impact the financial system.

3:30 p.m. The House heritage committee studies harms caused to children by viewing illegal sexually explicit material online.

3:30 p.m. Trade Minister MARY NG testifies to the House trade committee on the upcoming 2026 USMCA review.

3:30 p.m. The House public accounts committee hears from Deputy Minister of Industry SIMON KENNEDY and Auditor General KAREN HOGAN about her audit on Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

TRIVIA


Wednesday’s answer: “Missouri Waltz” was performed by the Peace Tower carillon in 1947 on the occasion of President HARRY TRUMAN's visit to Ottawa.

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, JOHN DELACOURT, JOHN DILLON, LA KEMPTON, CHRIS RANDS, ALEX STEINHOUSE, JOHN ECKER, GUY SKIPWORTH, KEVIN BOSCH, JOHN MATHESON, JOHANNA MIZGALA, GREG MACEACHERN, CHRIS ROL, JAMIE HKAYEM, STÉPHANE HAMADE, DAN MCCARTHY, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, CAMERON RYAN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BILL GARVIN, ANDREW FITZPATRICK, GORDON RANDALL, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, JASON MARKUSOFF, JENN KEAY, MALCOLM MCKAY, JOE MACDONALD, ROBERT BOSTELAAR, STEPHEN HAAS and BOB GORDON.

Today’s question: This prime minister served in the role for 6,934 days.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: KYLE DUGGAN

Correction: Wednesday’s Playbook misidentified the MP for Ottawa Centre. It is, of course, Yasir Naqvi. We also misidentified Sophie Normand’s current employer, which is Innovative Medicines Canada. 

 

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Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

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POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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