The test of democracy Biden won't mention

Presented by American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes: The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.
Jun 04, 2024 View in browser
 
West Wing Playbook

By Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan and Ben Johansen

Presented by 

American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes

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President JOE BIDEN heads to France this evening to give a series of speeches designed as a rousing defense of democracy against the threats posed by autocrats across the globe.

But he is unlikely to say anything about the democratic process playing out this week across Europe, as voters threaten to deliver a political blow to the continent’s centrist leaders and governing coalition.

There are no plans for Biden to acknowledge the European Union elections that will occur in 27 countries over the course of four days starting Thursday, according to three administration officials familiar with Biden’s schedule. Instead, those officials said, he will adhere to the longstanding precedent of not discussing the politics of other countries while traveling abroad.

Biden’s focus will be on the 80th anniversary of D-day, part of an effort, aides say, to present a sharp contrast with former President DONALD TRUMP. Beyond precedent, they see little upside in drawing attention to overseas elections that few Americans are even aware of — especially with far-right movements gaining steam in Europe and serving as a reminder that one of Biden’s biggest goals, the strengthening of global democracy, is far from assured.

“It makes sense that Biden wants the American audience to focus on his words about D-day and the importance of democracy,” said IAN RUSSELL, a Democratic consultant who works in the U.S. and Europe. “But … the EU is really the culmination of the postwar order that came out of World War II. That’s actually a story he might want to talk about, although the election results will also make clear that voters everywhere are frustrated.”

No one watching the EU elections expects that the political center in Brussels won’t hold. But the rise in support for the political extremes, especially among younger voters, could have near term implications and foreshadow the vote this November in the U.S.

Biden, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said Tuesday, “really believes we're at an inflection point in history — and it's not tied to elections, whether they're here or the UK or anywhere else, for that matter.”

For Europeans, far more comfortable discussing Biden’s own political fate and the possibility he may lose to Trump, the timing of this week’s visit only throws that electoral reality into sharper relief.

“The broader sense in Europe beneath the surface is that we are afraid that this is like the last dance on board the Titanic,” said JANA PUGLIERIN, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “In all the European countries to different degrees, we have people who have lost a connection to the political center.”

Last year’s election in the Netherlands may have served as an early warning sign of what’s ahead, as the anti-Islam, anti-immigration, right-wing populist GEERT WILDERS and his Freedom Party won nearly a quarter of the vote after tying affordable housing to immigration restrictions.

In France, MARINE LE PEN’s Rassemblement National party is polling far ahead of President EMMANUEL MACRON’s centrist coalition. “That’s weighing on all of us,” said CAMILLE GRAND, a distinguished fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former NATO assistant secretary general for defense investment. “Once you break the glass ceiling, and that’s where the EU election is interesting and important, all bets are off.”

In Germany, the largest far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD) had been surging until a series of scandals upended its momentum, with one AfD politician defending Nazis and others found to be working in lockstep with the Russians and the Chinese. But polls still show the party likely to finish second behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party.

“AfD is the most overtly and unashamedly far right party in Europe,” said CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “If people are willing to vote for that out of frustration, we should start taking that frustration more seriously.”

Growing support for more anti-establishment parties across Europe and the U.S., several analysts believe, has been driven by rampant migration, a prolonged economic downturn, post-pandemic malaise and the shock of a war in Ukraine that imperils the continent.

“It all feeds into this general feeling of decline. A lot of western democracies have this in common: People don’t have a positive outlook on the future,” said LAURA KRAUSE, the founder of More In Common, a European nonprofit that addresses the underlying causes of political polarization.

According to polls, URSULA VON DER LEYEN’s European People’s Party looks likely to maintain its position as the largest bloc within EU parliament in Brussels. But if right- and left-wing parties make significant gains, that could hurt her ability to maintain her job, put together a governing coalition or even sustain continental support for the war in Ukraine.

But in the short term, the event that could most dramatically affect the transatlantic alliance is Biden’s own election. And for all the uneasiness in Europe, it’s America’s democratic experience that is about to be tested.

“It is unclear whether the Americans are going to be able to hold a free and fair election that is seen as legitimate by the entire country,” said IAN BREMMER, president of the Eurasia Group, a risk assessment firm in New York. “That is a real crisis of democracy and it is unique to the U.S.”

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A message from American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes:

President Biden: American chemistry is the backbone of innovation.
It's time to address the regulatory overload stifling American chemistry. Chemistry powers our semiconductors, medical devices, and clean energy initiatives. But your administration’s avalanche of regulations is hampering America’s progress and competitiveness. American chemistry is more than an industry; it's our future. The Biden Administration must commit to smarter, growth-oriented regulations before it’s too late - because when chemistry is enabled to create, America competes.

 
POTUS PUZZLER

What did BARBARA BUSH think of The Simpsons?

(Answer at bottom.)

The Oval

REMEMBERING BEN WHITE: Former POLITICO chief economic correspondent and beloved colleague BEN WHITE passed away on Saturday, his partner Sara announced this afternoon. White joined POLITICO in 2009 and served as chief economic correspondent for the site for more than 13 years. That type of longevity is rare. But it underscored a few fundamental points about Ben: He was whip smart, a huge add to the newsroom and a genuinely good person. You could see it in the grief that former colleagues expressed upon hearing the news.

“Editors invoked him as a model at Politico — he became a newsroom legend — and he was always supportive as I tried to find my footing,” said Washington Post reporter DAN DIAMOND, a POLITICO alum.

POLITICO economic correspondent VICTORIA GUIDA said White was “always generous with his time, his knowledge, with bylines, and with compliments.”

POLITICO economic reporter ELEANOR MUELLER wrote that “it was nothing but an honor to know and to work with Ben — one of the most thoughtful, smartest and kindest colleagues I’ve ever been lucky enough to have.”

We will miss you, Ben.

IT’S FINALLY HERE: President Biden on Tuesday issued long-awaited executive actions on border security, clamping down on migrants seeking asylum — and in doing so, setting up a closure of much of the U.S.-Mexico border at midnight, our MYAH WARD reports. The action and accompanying rule from the Biden administration will let the president close the border in between ports of entry when there is an average of 2,500 crossings a day over a seven day period. That threshold is currently already being hit.

Once the shutdown is in effect, Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS can reopen the border once average crossings have fallen below 1,500 for seven consecutive days.

There are some key variables that still require explanation, as Reuters reports. Those include questions about “how the administration would quickly deport migrants from far-away and uncooperative countries and how many non-Mexican migrants Mexico would accept under the new enforcement regime.”

HAUNTED BY HUNTER: Over the past few weeks, President Biden has been increasingly consumed by worries over his youngest son HUNTER BIDEN’s criminal trial, our JONATHAN LEMIRE reports. The president has more frequently called family members to check on Hunter’s mood, and the topic of the trial — which began Monday with jury selection — dominated his family gathering in Delaware over the weekend. Biden has long expressed guilt to confidants that his career has been a strain on his family. Now, those confidants are concerned that his personal burden could get worse as the court proceedings unfold.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT: For folks looking to make sense of why Biden took a stronger whack at Donald Trump’s conviction at last night’s Connecticut fundraiser, we’d suggest a listen to one of his campaign’s top pollsters, CELINDA LAKE. Talking to The New Republic’s GREG SARGENT, Lake dismissed the Democratic consultants who urge restraint as “too cautious” and suggested that Trump’s guilty verdict will mobilize voters.

“Right now, Trump voters have been more mobilized,” she said. “The risk of not taking it on sufficiently is [that] it doesn’t get defined. It gets partially understood … [and] processed as ‘A judge made this decision,’ rather than, ‘No, a jury of ordinary people held this guy accountable.’”

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: TIME Magazine Washington Bureau Chief MASSIMO CALABRESI and editor in chief SAM JACOBS sat down with President Biden for an interview largely focused on his foreign policy agenda. When asked if Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU is prolonging the war in Gaza for his own political preservation, Biden said he wouldn’t comment on the matter … before saying there is “every reason” for people in Israel to draw that conclusion.

On Ukraine, Biden emphasized that the Russian military has been “freaking decimated” — which TIME fact checked as a “fair assessment” — and that his administration’s response is a part of a broader geopolitical strategy. “If we ever let Ukraine go down, mark my words: you'll see Poland go, and you'll see all those nations along the actual border of Russia, from the Balkans and Belarus, all those, they're going to make their own accommodations.”

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by AP’s MATTHEW DALY and LINLEY SANDERS, who report that many Americans still aren’t sold on buying an electric vehicle for their next car purchase, according to a new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. About 4 in 10 U.S. adults said they would be at least somewhat likely to buy an EV, while 46 percent said they are not too likely or not at all likely to do so. Half of U.S. adults cite range anxiety — the idea that EVs cannot go far enough on a single charge, potentially leaving drivers stranded — as a major reason for not buying an EV.

 

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CAMPAIGN HQ

GOVS COMING IN OFF THE ROPES: A climate group with ties to Washington Gov. JAY INSLEE is running a $1 million ad campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin highlighting President Biden’s record on renewable energy, NYT’s REID J. EPSTEIN reports. The ads, which feature Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER and Wisconsin Gov. TONY EVERS, are among the most significant third-party ads broadcasted in battleground states so far this cycle.

In the Michigan ad, Evergreen Collaborative — the group funding the ads — shows Whitmer playing up the president’s climate agenda. “Make it in Michigan,” Whitmer says while standing in what she says is a job-training center. “It’s what we’re doing every single day.”  

SUNSHINE STATE BOUND: The Biden campaign announced ten new hires to its staff in Florida, JACOB OGLES of Florida Politics reports. Among the new additions to the team are CRAMER VERDE, who will be the Florida political director, and KYLE ALEXANDRE, who will be the deputy political director. The Florida Democratic Party also announced eight other hires as part of the Florida Democratic Coordinated Campaign.

Is it time for another round of those ‘Can Biden make Florida a thing?’ stories?

THE BUREAUCRATS

COMING IN HOT: Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND appeared in front of the House Judiciary Committee on Tuesday — and right off the bat, slammed House Republicans for politicizing the Justice Department’s work, our JORDAIN CARNEY reports. “Certain members of this Committee and the Oversight Committee are seeking contempt as a means of obtaining — for no legitimate purpose — sensitive law enforcement information that could harm the integrity of future investigations,” Garland said in his opening statement.

The AG specifically pointed to the GOP’s “conspiracy theory” that the Justice Department “somehow controlled” Manhattan District Attorney ALVIN BRAGG’s prosecution of Donald Trump.

PERSONNEL MOVES: BRANDON POSSIN left the State Department last week after almost 17 years as a diplomat in the foreign service with postings including Japan, Venezuela, Indonesia, Pakistan and Peru. Possin, who wrote a POLITICO Magazine story last year warning that Washington is falling behind on blockchain technology, is founding a startup in Japan: a science marketplace using NFTs.

 

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Agenda Setting

STILL JUST A RAVE DRUG: An FDA panel on Tuesday afternoon rejected an application to allow MDMA-assisted therapy (otherwise known as ecstasy) for veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder. The application had the backing of the Department of Veterans Affairs and would have marked a massive shift in the use of psychedelic medicine, not only for veterans, but all Americans dealing with mental illness.

MAYBE DON’T POST ABOUT IT? A senior Ukrainian official hinted Monday that Kyiv had hit a missile system inside Russia using Western weapons, just days after the United States approved their limited use, NBC’s YULIYA TALMAZAN reports. In a now-deleted post on Telegram, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister IRYNA VERESHCHUK shared a photo of a burning military truck with the caption: “It’s burning well. This is a Russian S-300. On Russian territory. The first days after permission to use Western weapons on the enemy’s territory.”

What We're Reading

Merrick Garland, Three Special Counsels and a Justice Department Under Fire (WSJ’s Sadie Gurman and Aruna Viswanatha)

How 1980s Yuppies Gave Us Donald Trump (Tom McGrath for POLITICO)

This Delaware bar, open only 16 hours a week, is one of Esquire's 'best bars in America' (Delaware News Journal’s Ryan Cormier)

 

A message from American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes:

Did you know that it takes 500 highly specialized chemicals to manufacture one semiconductor chip? And the Biden Administration is investing billions to build semiconductor plants in the U.S.

There’s just one big problem: the president’s administration keeps rolling out regulations and restrictions that could impair chemical manufacturers’ ability to produce the very inputs needed to achieve this expansion.

“You can build all the semiconductor plants you want, but if critical chemistries aren’t available, you won’t be successful in onshoring the chip manufacturing supply chain. This is an issue of national security.” – Chris Jahn, President and CEO, American Chemistry Council

Call on the Biden Administration to stop undercutting American innovation and national priorities.

Learn more at chemistrycreates.org

 
The Oppo Book

White House senior legal assistant CAMERON MACPHERSON bleeds orange. As a native of Syracuse, New York, MacPherson played tight end for SU’s football team from 2014 to 2016 and was named first-team Academic All-American in 2016. He initially started as a quarterback for the Georgetown Hoyas, but transferred to ‘Cuse in 2013 because of his family’s ties to the program.

DICK MACPHERSON, his grandfather, is a College Football Hall of Famer who amassed a 111-73-5 college head coaching record over a 30-year career, leading both Syracuse and UMass Amherst. Dick also had a short stint as the head coach of the New England Patriots.

“One of the greatest crimes of our nascent century was perpetrated when the Georgetown Hoyas, suckling at the teet of Lucifer himself, convinced QB Cameron MacPherson, grandson of Dick, brother of Macky, to matriculate at their school instead of the hometown Syracuse Orange,” a Syracuse blog put it … lightly … before saying MacPherson made the right choice after some “soul-searching.” (For the uninitiated, Georgetown and Syracuse are massive rivals, though in basketball.)

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

In 1990, the first lady described the show as “the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen.” The show’s creators responded to Bush’s criticism with a letter written in the voice of MARGE SIMPSON: “I always believed in my heart that we had a great deal in common. Each of us living our lives to serve an exceptional man. I hope there is some way out of this controversy. I thought, perhaps, it would be a good start to just speak my mind.”

Bush offered her apologies just weeks later. “How kind of you to write,” Bush wrote. “I am glad you spoke your mind; I foolishly didn’t know you had one. I am looking at a picture of you … Evidently, you and your charming family are camping out … Clearly you are setting a good example for the rest of the country. Please forgive a loose tongue.” The P.S. she added? “Homer looks like a handsome fella!”

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Sam Stein and Rishika Dugyala.

 

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