Biden's out. Now what?

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Jul 22, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Madison Fernandez

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Televisa Univision
TOP LINE

After weeks of mounting pressure from members of his own party, President Joe Biden has ended his reelection bid, throwing the 2024 cycle into unprecedented territory.

Biden, who said he’s finishing out his term, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, making her the favorite for the Democratic nod. Dozens of elected officials came out in support of her on Sunday — although not everyone is eager for a quick coronation — urging the party to unite with just over 100 days to go until the election.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris join hands.

President Joe Biden backed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him on Sunday. | Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Republicans are already on the attack. MAGA Inc., the pro-Donald Trump super PAC, hit the airwaves in swing states going after Harris, tying her to Biden. Republicans have also teased legal challenges, although they’re not likely to gain much traction.

Here are just some of the questions we’ll hope to answer in the coming weeks:

— Will Harris have a clear path to the nomination? No major contenders immediately came out to challenge Harris for the nomination. Some of the Democrats whose names have been floating around as potential 2028 candidates, like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, endorsed Harris. And prior to Biden dropping out, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who also threw her support behind Harris, said she would not run for president this year.

But West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who earlier this year switched from Democrat to independent, is reportedly fielding calls from Democratic donors and officials to rejoin the party and run for the top job.

And then there’s the question of logistics. Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison said that the party “will undertake a transparent and orderly process to move forward” that will “be governed by established rules and procedures of the party.” It’s unclear if the DNC will proceed with its planned virtual roll call ahead of the convention, which starts Aug. 19, or if it will do it on the convention floor.

— Who will be the running mate? Harris will be spending the next weeks focusing on making her case to be the Democratic nominee. And in the meantime, the veepstakes will certainly be heating up.

Among the names being floated as potential VP contenders: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Shapiro, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Whitmer. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s allies are also pushing for him to be in the mix, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — the lone 2020 candidate besides Harris in Biden's cabinet — is in the conversation too.

Some of those contenders — like Cooper, Kelly, Shapiro and Whitmer — could help Democrats in battleground states. Many of those potential candidates who are sitting members of Congress and governors are partway through their terms, with the exception of Cooper, who is term-limited this year.

— How will this play down-ballot? Democrats have long fretted that having Biden on the ticket will drag them down. But Republicans have already started to preview their next line of attack.

NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said in a statement that Biden is “incapacitated” and Democrats “lied to the American people to cover it up.”

“Every House Democrat must now answer: is the president fit to serve the rest of his term?” Hudson continued — a question that a handful of battleground Republicans posed on Sunday as well.

Throughout the cycle, plenty of down-ballot Republican candidates have taken the opportunity to tie their opponents to Biden, primarily focusing on connecting the Democrats on topics like immigration or the economy. Those messages — including pointing to vote records that align with the Biden-Harris administration — will also likely translate over to Harris.

It’s Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Arizona primaries: 8

Days until the Tennessee primaries: 10

Days until the Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state primaries: 15

Days until the Hawaii primaries: 19

Days until the Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin primaries: 22

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 28

Days until the Alaska, Florida and Wyoming primaries: 29

Days until the 2024 election: 106

 

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Presidential Big Board

WHAT THEY’RE WORKING WITH — Trump’s operation extended its cash advantage over Biden’s (and now Harris’) last month, according to campaign finance reports filed over the weekend. Biden’s campaign raised $63.8 million in June, spent $59.4 million and had $95.9 million on hand, compared to Trump’s campaign, which brought in $21.5 million in that period, spent $9.9 million and had $128.1 million in the bank. When including their affiliated groups, Trump’s “entire operation had $281 million in cash at the end of June, compared to $237 million for Biden,” POLITICO’s Jessica Piper reports.

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “reported another month in the red in June, despite fresh cash infusion from his running mate,” Jessica writes. His campaign brought in around $5.4 million (including $2.5 million from his vice presidential pick Nicole Shanahan), and spent $6.3 million. It had $5.6 million on hand and more than $3 million in debt, underscoring his “continued financial challenges.”

TRAIL MIX — Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) hit the trail for their first rally together on Saturday in Michigan — and the first since last weekend’s assassination attempt — where Trump leaned into Democrats’ confusion about the top of their ticket. Read more from POLITICO’s Natalie Allison and Alex Isenstadt.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Republican Utah Gov. Spencer Cox endorsed Trump. Cox is a longtime skeptic of the former president who said that he didn’t vote for him in the last two elections. He acknowledged on Friday that they “will still have lots of disagreements” but is doing “everything I can to help and support him.”

 

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

IN MEMORIAM — Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) died, her family announced on Friday. They did not provide a cause of death, though the longtime member of Congress shared last month that she was undergoing treatment for pancreatic cancer.

Jackson Lee was running for reelection for her Houston-based 18th District, a deep-blue seat. “The Harris County Democratic Party’s executive committee will have until Aug. 26 to nominate a candidate,” the Houston Chronicle’s Taylor Goldenstein reports. “If the committee does not choose a candidate in time, then the Texas Democratic Party would have two days, or until Aug. 28, to make the choice.” It’s unclear if Republican Gov. Greg Abbott will call a special election to fill the remainder of her term through January.

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Republican businessperson Sandy Pensler ended his bid for Michigan Senate and endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers, the favorite for the party’s nod. Pensler heavily self-funded his bid and attacked Rogers on the airwaves. Still, the path to the nomination isn’t completely clear for Rogers: former Rep. Justin Amash and physician Sherry O’Donnell are still in the running.

PRIMARY COLORS — Pro-Israel groups have largely stayed out of progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) primary next month, where she faces a challenge from 2022 opponent Don Samuels, a former member of the Minneapolis City Council. “Samuels now suggests that if pro-Israel groups that largely sat the last race out choose not to engage more actively before next month’s primary, then they will be missing out on a key opportunity, claiming that his rematch remains competitive amid what he characterized as continued and growing dissatisfaction with Omar’s representation,” Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel writes.

Omar maintains a hefty fundraising advantage over Samuels, who would benefit from outside groups getting involved. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee “did not explicitly rule out engaging in the primary,” and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC did not respond to Jewish Insider.

IN THE STATES — Colorado Republicans are looking to oust state party chair Dave Williams — but not if he has anything to say about it. Williams “is suing local party leaders in two of Colorado’s most populous counties” who “have been trying to organize a vote among party members to remove Williams as chair, and have scheduled a meeting for July 27,” CPR News’ Andrew Kenney writes. Williams argues that the meeting slated for this weekend is invalid.

Williams drew the ire of local Republicans due in part to an email he sent from the state party account that attacked Pride Month. Some have also taken issue with how Williams used the position to boost his failed congressional campaign, along with how he led the party to break from precedent to endorse in contested primaries.

 

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THE CASH DASH

PARTY TIME — Here’s how the party committees did from June 1-30, according to the latest FEC filings.

— The NRCC raised $14.3 million and ended the month with $70.8 million in the bank. It spent $8.2 million and had no debts.

— The DCCC brought in $19.7 million and had $87.9 million on hand. It spent $10.7 million and had no debts.

— The NRSC had an $18.5 million haul. The committee had $48.3 million in its coffers, spent $11.2 million and had no debts.

— The DSCC raised $12.1 million last month and had $53.1 million on hand. It spent $7.3 million and had no debts.

— The RNC brought in $66.9 million in June and had $101.6 million on hand. It spent $19.4 million and had no debts.

— The DNC reported bringing in $39.2 million. It had $78.3 million in the bank, spent $26.1 million and owed around $79,000 in debts.

 

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POLL POSITION

MI-Sen — Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Rogers, the frontrunners for their respective parties, are in a tight race, per an EPIC-MRA poll for the Detroit Free Press. Slotkin has 43 percent to Rogers’ 40 percent (600 likely voters, July 13-17, MoE +/- 4 percentage points).

AS SEEN ON TV

AZ-Sen — American Encore, an outside group that’s supporting Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the Republican primary, says that Trump needs a “workhorse,” not a “show horse” like Kari Lake, the favorite for the party nod.

WI-Sen — Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin accuses Republican Eric Hovde of dissing farmers.

MO-Gov — Committee for Liberty, a pro-Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft group, attacks GOP primary opponent Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe over taxes.

WA-08 — Rep. Kim Schrier, a battleground Democrat, highlights her background as a doctor and says that the government should not make decisions about abortion access.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — "Not the birthday gift I was looking for, but.” — Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), whose birthday was yesterday.

 

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