| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Matt Berg | |  Critics are saying the Biden administration could have done more to rein in strongman President Nicolas Maduro ahead of Venezuela's Sunday election. | Alfredo Lasry/Getty Images | With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Venezuelan voters are headed to the polls this Sunday in an election expected to be rigged against the widely popular opposition — and critics are saying the Biden administration could have done more to rein in strongman President NICOLÁS MADURO. In October, the Venezuelan government and opposition leaders reached an agreement in Barbados in which Maduro promised to run a free and fair election and allow opposition candidates to freely campaign. Washington gave Caracas some relief from harsh sanctions contingent on Maduro’s compliance with the terms of the agreement. Caracas initially honored the deal, but by January, Maduro began going against his word. Electoral authorities aligned with Maduro barred opposition leader MARÍA CORINA MACHADO from appearing on the ballot (a substitute candidate EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ is running in her place). The government has also arrested and harassed some of Machado’s political advisers and blocked foreign election observers from entering the country. Washington waited until April to reimpose sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sectors, a major economic lifeline for the petrostate. Venezuelan authorities have rejected accusations that the elections will be fixed in Maduro’s favor. Rep. MARÍA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.), who chairs the House Western Hemisphere Subcommittee, said in a statement that “sanctions were not immediately reimposed as they should have been” even though “Maduro immediately tore to shreds the Barbados Agreement by harassing and imprisoning members of María Corina and Edmundo’s campaign team, censoring opposition media, and arbitrarily disqualifying potential opponents.” CARRIE FILIPETTI, who led Venezuela policy at the State Department during the Trump administration, also argued that the administration could have reimposed sanctions much sooner. The delay, she said, gave Maduro license to continue targeting the opposition. “They felt like they could keep getting away with things, which is how we ended up where we are today,” said Filipetti, who now leads the Vandenberg Coalition think tank. The White House is defending its decision to not immediately reimpose sanctions on the regime. A senior administration official, granted anonymity to preview the U.S. response to the elections in the coming days, told reporters “the fact that we are now within 72 hours of an election in Venezuela, where you have a unified opposition that is still on the ballot, and a process where at least there's a fighting chance that the will of Venezuelan people will be heard is an extremely important milestone that wouldn't have been possible without some of the steps that we've taken in our sanctions policy.” And not all are convinced that reimposing sanctions earlier would have changed Venezuela’s behavior. PATRICK DUDDY, who served as U.S. ambassador to Venezuela during the Bush and Obama administrations, said “maximum pressure did not achieve what many hoped it would achieve,” because ultimately, “the Maduro regime survived and continued in power.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) told NatSec Daily in an interview that he remains supportive of the Biden administration’s attempts to provide Caracas with “carrots,” even if hopes for a democratic election were ultimately dashed. He’s also heartened as neighbors like Brazil and Colombia gradually join in calls for Maduro to respect the outcome of the election even if he loses. “There's a great deal of skepticism … that it will be a totally free and fair election. But they do believe there's a significant public sentiment that will be expressed at the polls,” said Cardin. “Whether the government will respect that or not, we'll see.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | LOST IN TRADUCCIÓN: The U.S. didn’t give Mexican officials a heads up before arresting two high-ranking members of the Sinaloa Cartel, per The Washington Post’s MARY BETH SHERIDAN and NICK MIROFF. Mexican Security Minister ROSA ICELA RODRÍGUEZ told reporters that U.S. agents on Thursday morning arrested ISMAEL “EL MAYO” ZAMBADA and JOAQUÍN GUZMÁN LÓPEZ, the son of the cartel’s notorious leader JOAQUIN “EL CHAPO” GUZMÁN, who is currently serving a life sentence in federal prison. But Washington didn’t tell Mexican authorities about the arrest until 3:30 p.m. Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR was not informed until after 4 p.m. “We are awaiting official communication on whether what happened yesterday was a capture or surrender,” Rodríguez said during the president’s daily “mañanera” press conference. “This is part of what the U.S. government must tell us.” OLYMPICS OFF TO BAD START: A coordinated arson attack on the French rail system is creating a nightmare for hundreds of thousands of travelers headed to the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, our own VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT and CLEA CAULCUTT report. A French rail company today said its high-speed train system had been hit by “deliberate arson attacks to damage [its] facilities,” causing delays and cancellations which are expected to last all weekend. The disruptions are affecting trains heading East, North and West of Paris, and travelers have been asked to postpone their plans. Prime Minister GABRIEL ATTAL said the sabotage operation “had been prepared and coordinated to hit the nerve centers” of the French rail network. The perpetrators “knew where to attack the system, but I can't tell you more about the authors and their motivations," he told reporters. PENSION PROBLEMS: States angry and afraid of what Beijing could do next as relations worsen are pulling pension funds out of investments in China, our own PHELIM KINE reports. Their concerns include U.S. assets being frozen if conflict breaks out in the Indo-Pacific, intellectual property theft and espionage. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring GRACE WRIGHT, the comms director for Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.), who is probably annoyed at how often we ask about House Foreign Affairs and Intel Committee happenings. “My favorite drink is probably a Naked and Famous,” she said — a cocktail made with mezcal, yellow Chartreuse, Aperol and fresh lime juice. “It's so refreshing, but it has that smokiness that kind of bases it.” Her favorite place to knock a couple back? Bar Chinois, a little joint in Mount Vernon Triangle serving up Chinese cuisine and French-inspired cocktails and wine. “They have an incredible happy hour. Their cocktails and their drinks are half off from 5 to 7, and they have dollar dumplings. So you literally can get a full meal with two cocktails and eight dumplings for like $25. It’s fantastic,” she said. I’m sold. New source meeting spot, anyone? Cheers, Grace! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat. | | | | | | | | | TRUMP’S ‘GOOD RELATIONSHIP’ WITH BIBI: Former President DONALD TRUMP attacked KAMALA HARRIS after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU today, saying that the VP’s comments during her Thursday meeting with the Israeli leader were “disrespectful to Israel,” The New York Times’ MICHAEL GOLD reports. Israeli officials were caught off guard by comments from Harris following her bilateral meeting with Netanyahu, which saw her sharply criticize the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, Per Axios’ BARAK RAVID. Trump has also been critical of Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza, previously saying that “it can’t continue to go on like this. It’s too long. It’s too much.” Asked by a reporter if he would have to rebuild ties with Netanyahu if elected in November, Trump shook it off: “We don’t have to. We’ve had a good relationship.”
| | | RUSSIA’S CHEAP EYES: Moscow has been deploying two new types of inexpensive drones in its long-range attacks on Ukraine, to attempt to identify air defense and film damage on the battlefield, Reuters’ TOM BALMFORTH reports. The drones are made out of materials like foam plastic and plywood, a Ukrainian spy official told Reuters. One type is equipped with a camera and a phone SIM card that can send pictures back to Russia’s military. The drones have been used in five attacks over the past few weeks, including one on Thursday that saw debris fall into Romania. The tech shows Russia’s ability to develop new weapons that could help its forces more accurately target Ukrainian weapons and troops, and attack Kyiv’s forces without spending too much money.
| | | |   | | | | | FUNDING FINALLY FLOWS: The European Commission transferred $1.6 billion of profits from investing frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine, our own GREGORIO SORGI reports. After months of grueling negotiations in Brussels, the EU sent the first batch of funding to Kyiv. Ninety percent of the cash will be used for military purposes, while the remaining amount will go toward humanitarian aid. EU capitals agreed to use the proceeds generated by investing $209 billion of immobilized Russian assets held by the Brussels-based securities depository Euroclear. Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV today called the move “illegal” and said Moscow will take “well-thought-out actions” in response, Reuters’ DMITRY ANTONOV reports.
| | MUSICAL CHAIRS: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) is making his case for holding onto his gavel: He would be Trump’s ace on the Hill for foreign policy and provide continuity at a dangerous time. “I like to say ‘The world is on fire, and it’s not the right time to change horses,’” the hawkish 10-term lawmaker told our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). “And if Trump does get elected, he’ll need somebody in the Congress that can within the first 100 days pass his foreign policy agenda. And if you have a new chair, it’ll take about six months to hire new staff.” Vice Chair ANN WAGNER (R-Mo.), Middle East Subcommittee Chair JOE WILSON (R-S.C.), and Rep. DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif.) are all reportedly vying for the job. McCaul would be term-limited out of the position in the next Congress unless he receives a waiver from the Republican Steering Committee, which is an extension of the GOP conference leadership. McCaul said he has been having “good, productive meetings” with the panel. He’s arguing that when it gave Rep. VIRGINIA FOXX (R-N.C.) a waiver to chair the House Education and Labor Committee in the next Congress, it set a precedent that could be his pathway too. If he fails, his three competitors are internationalists who wouldn’t steer HFAC off the course McCaul has set. He’s also open to exiting Congress to serve in a new Trump administration.
| | | SOUTHEAST ASIA ALLIES: Moscow and Beijing should join forces in Southeast Asia to “counter interference by forces from outside this region,” Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV said on Thursday, Russian state-owned media reported today. It was a thinly veiled knock at the United States efforts to create a regional alliance to defend against Chinese aggression in the region: “We have a unified position. We must do everything to prevent it from being destroyed,” Lavrov told his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Laos. EUROPE’S CONGO TROUBLES: A deal between Europe and Rwanda over access to critical minerals is in hot water over its role in potentially furthering the Congolese Civil War, our own ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN reports. Back in February, Kigali and Brussels signed a deal that would expand European access to strategic minerals needed for manufacturing computing and clean energy technology. But Rwanda has played a major role in the Congolese Civil War raging next door, supporting the militant group M23 and facing accusations that it has plundered resources from mineral-rich eastern Congolese provinces for its own gain. After facing concerted pressure from the Congolese government, activists and researchers, Brussels is now trying to clean up the deal and ensure that they can trace the origins of potential “conflict minerals” acquired from the region.
| | | | The space economy is already woven into our lives in ways we don't always appreciate, creating a global backbone for communications, media, data, science and defense. It's also becoming an increasingly competitive zone among nations - and a venue for complex and important public-private partnerships. Join POLITICO on July 30 for a conversation about what Washington needs to understand is at stake – which sectors of the global economy see their growth arc in space, and what the role of government leaders is in both growing and regulating the explosion of orbital ideas. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ADHAM SAHLOUL has been named special assistant and adviser in the Office of Policy at the U.S. Agency for International Development, our DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was special assistant in the White House Liaison Office in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and was Middle East country director during DOD’s post-Oct. 7 crisis cell. — DMITRY BULGAKOV, a former Russian deputy defense minister, has been arrested and charged with corruption, according to Russian media.
| | — MARÍA CORINA MACHADO, The New York Times: Venezuela is ready for change. Maduro must allow it. — JASON STEARNS, Foreign Affairs: The forgotten war in Congo — SONDOS FAYOUMI, The Nation: Every university in Gaza has been destroyed. So have these students’ dreams.
| | — U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 8:30 a.m.: Bolstering efforts to address human trafficking. — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Yezidi genocide and the struggle for recovery. — Brookings Institution, 2 p.m.: Strengthening air and space power. — The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: The day after: Making sense of Venezuela’s presidential election. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who deserves to be sanctioned by the U.S. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who will work with us to impose those sanctions on Heidi.
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