| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan with Philippe J. Fournier |
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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → A closer look at the numbers behind the numbers. → Our pundits seem to agree: No election until 2025. → Wildfires, VP watch and GDP: Three things we’re watching. |  | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | | JUST VISITING — Good morning. If the next two weeks of the Ottawa Playbook seem especially nerdy — yes, even nerdier than usual — you can blame me. My name is PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER, astrophysicist by day, editor-in-chief of 338Canada and a newsletter by night, and POLITICO Ottawa contributor around the clock. For the next two weeks, I’ll be taking up a “summer residency” in your Ottawa Playbook. My goal is to explore the numbers behind the numbers. For example: 42.9 percent: That’s the share of the vote former Liberal MP and Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI received in his riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in 2021, 21 points ahead of his closest opponent (the Bloc). — What’s new: On Sunday, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU announced that the by-election to replace Lametti will take place Sept. 16. Projections and a recent riding poll from Mainstreet Research point to a close three-way race between the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois. — Is the riding a must-win for Trudeau? One would think so, though many said the same thing of Toronto–St. Paul’s in June. Éric Grenier and I discussed this at length on the latest episode of “The Numbers” pod. 49.7 percent: Trudeau also just announced that voters from the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona will head to the polls Sept. 16. — Surveying the field: Former NDP MP DANIEL BLAIKIE, who won just less than 50 percent of the vote in 2021 (22 points ahead of the CPC candidate), represented the riding from 2015 until he resigned in March. It remains to be seen how much that departure will hurt the NDP. LEILA DANCE will try to hold the riding for the party. Conservative candidate COLIN REYNOLDS will go for the upset. 448: Unless the LPC-NDP confidence-and-supply-agreement ends prematurely, that’s how many days there are before the next (scheduled) federal election. — Time for the Liberals to turn it around? Sure, but that’s what we wrote a year ago, just after the Cabinet shuffle and just before the government began to sink like a lead balloon. — Don’t call it a crystal ball: Federal polls from several sources and different methods have all pointed toward a CPC blowout. Summer polling has been more sparce, but recent numbers from Abacus Data and Nanos Research do not show any improvement for the Liberals. — The latest 338Canada federal projection: Conservatives have 212 seats, on average. If this materializes at the ballot boxes, the parliamentary caucus would be the largest in Canadian history in absolute terms. (As a percentage of seats, John Diefenbaker’s 1958 record of 78.5 percent of HoC seats — 208 out of 265 — should be safe for now.) Do you have questions for 338Canada? Send them to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. We'll open the mailbag next week. | | Talk of the town | |
SUMMER PROGNOSTICATORS — Playbook asked a pile of fishbowl pundits to lend us their crystal balls. Everybody agrees on one thing: No election until 2025.
That's the easy part. — Hottest take: Here's a prediction from a Hill veteran who sees falling dominoes in the near-future summer heat. Hold onto your butts. JUSTIN TRUDEAU — "I think the PM will step down by September, perhaps at the Liberal summer caucus meeting, and that will lead to a number of Cabinet ministers leaving their roles to run as leadership contestants. This will necessitate at least a small shuffle to fill the holes." You know the contenders everybody rhymes off: ANITA ANAND, FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, SEAN FRASER, CHRYSTIA FREELAND, MÉLANIE JOLY, DOMINIC LEBLANC, yadda yadda yadda. → About that shuffle: Earnscliffe's SHAKIR CHAMBERS bets on a big shakeup among ministers and their top aides. “Chiefs of staff will only be shuffled because of the Cabinet shuffle. I also don’t think the shuffle will be surgical,” Chambers tells Playbook. “I think it will be a major shakeup. This is the last 'reset' this government has. Change is in the air and they need to do all they can to show they’re doing something different." PIERRE POILIEVRE — A few themes emerged for the tour-and-rally Tory leader. Short takes and quick predictions from the pundits: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's JORDAN LEICHNITZ: “More time in B.C. and northern Ontario hunting NDP seats.” … Texture's MELANIE PARADIS: “Poilievre will keep up his tour, but otherwise he doesn't actually need to soak up the news cycle. Let Trudeau's leadership speculation hold the spotlight.” … Enterprise's MITCH HEIMPEL: "A big effort to win Elmwood-Transcona," where the Tories hope to flip an NDP stronghold in a by-election. … Crestview's CAMERON DOHERTY: "A summer tour schedule as planned with a lot of cultural community outreach in the 905 and lower mainland." … Earnscliffe's MÉLANIE RICHER: "More of the same of what we've been hearing and his four taglines. Getting people to know him more will also be important for his team." … Counsel's JOHN DELACOURT: "A focus on Quebec, putting his wife Anaida more in the foreground for these events." JAGMEET SINGH — The NDP leader is running out of calendar to set himself apart from the Liberals his party has supported for more than two years in the House of Commons. A pair of former party staffers map out his BBQ circuit: Niipaawi's CAM HOLMSTROM: “ Singh needs to try to create distance between the NDP and Liberals, but until they end the confidence-and-supply agreement, that won't be possible. Singh had the right chance to do it when the NSICOP report came out. Every day since passing up that chance makes it exponentially harder to create that distance and explain why it took so long to end the agreement." … RICHER: "Jagmeet will continue to position himself as an alternative to the Liberals that won't cave to big business like the Tories. They'll have to win back their orange/blue vote and that will start this summer." What’s your hot take? Tell us here. | | | | Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat. | | | | | | | Where the leaders are | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is on vacation in British Columbia. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto where she will tour a housing development and make an announcement. A media availability will follow. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold a rally in Fort Frances, Ontario, at 6:30 p.m. CT. — Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has not released a public itinerary. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will be in Montreal with the NDP candidate for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, CRAIG SAUVÉ. They plan to mainstreet outside Sauvé’s campaign office at 11:45 a.m. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will co-host the monthly Saanich forum with BC Green MLA ADAM OLSEN at 11:30 a.m. local time.
| | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | |
WILDFIRES: The federal government has announced a donation-matching initiative with the Canadian Red Cross to help with Alberta’s wildfire response.
A Parks Canada official confirmed Saturday that wildfire has destroyed hundreds of structures in the mountain town of Jasper. — CBC News reports: Latest tour of Jasper area reveals widespread damage. — The Canadian Press: Parks Canada officials say they're making progress on battling the blazes. — Quote of note via AP: “We’re going to be working on this wildfire, we expect, over the next three months at least,” Landon Shepherd, a deputy incident commander, said during a news briefing. “What the last five years has taught us is that the fire season in Jasper tends to last well into the fall.” VEEP WATCH: The U.S. election is 99 days away. Our colleagues in D.C. suggest VP KAMALA HARRIS has one short-term task ahead: “Avoiding a running mate rollout as shaky and damaging as [JD] VANCE’s introduction to the campaign trail. ”The race to be VP is not so subtle, POLITICO’s JARED MITOVICH writes of the decision expected by Aug. 7. Those said to be in the mix: U.S. Secretary of Transportation PETE BUTTIGIEG; Govs. TIM WALZ of Minnesota, JOSH SHAPIRO of Pennsylvania, ROY COOPER of North Carolina and ANDY BESHEAR of Kentucky; Arizona Sen. MARK KELLY. Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER is also thought to be under consideration, though she recently shot down the possibility. ECONOMIC SIGNALS: On Wednesday, Statistics Canada will release its gross domestic product report for May. “Canadian GDP data should continue to point to a weakening economy in Q2,” RBC Economics advises. “We expect momentum faded in May with output growth unchanged after a stronger 0.3 percent increase in April.” | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— POLITICO polling analyst STEVE SHEPARD looks at how the U.S. election has been totally upended.
— POLITICO’s ELI STOKOLS and ELENA SCHNEIDER explain how DONALD TRUMP and JD VANCE went from a “threat to democracy” to “weird.” — “The Bridge” pod convened BRUCE ANDERSON and CHANTAL HÉBERT for a summer catchup. Episode title: “Could Trudeau do a Biden?” — ANJA KARADEGLIJA of The Canadian Press reports: “Ottawa is working on a strategy to use more AI in the federal public service.” — MEGAN WARREN writes in the Globe: “Jasper is grieving. But my community will survive the fire.” | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Freeland: EV supply chain “absolutely not” unraveling.
In other news for Pro readers: — Yellen says $3T of fresh capital is needed annually to fight climate change. — Inside Kamala Harris’ economic kitchen cabinet. — Biden made history with his climate actions. Here’s how Trump could unravel them. — US delays China’s WTO challenge against Biden climate law. — 15 states to share $575M for climate resilience projects in coastal areas. — Will Harris play hardball with the oil industry? | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to Minister for Women and Gender Equality and Youth MARCI IEN, Bloomberg’s LAURA DHILLON KANE and former MP DAVID DE BURGH GRAHAM.
HBD + 1 to IAN FOUCHER, chief of staff to Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Spotted: MP MARC DALTON, celebrating his 39th wedding anniversary. Movers and shakers: FRANCES DONALD has joined RBC as its new chief economist. In memoriam: Former MP JOHN GLASS WILLIAMS died July 15. From his obituary: "Though his political work took him far and wide to dine in the presence of ambassadors, nobility and leaders of nations, he was never more content than when back in his rural Alberta puttering around his hobby farm with his beloved pet jersey cows Betsy and Daisy, and constructing the newest state of the art quarters for his chickens." | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | |
1:30 p.m. Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will be in Trenton, Nova Scotia, to make a housing-related funding announcement.
2:30 p.m. (11:30 a.m. PT) Emergency Preparedness Minister HARJIT S. SAJJAN will be in Victoria, British Columbia — also with a housing announcement. | | TRIVIA | |
Friday's answer: Former Conservative Cabmin PETER KENT spent the last half of 1966 in Vietnam as a freelance cameraperson/reporter.
Props to DAN MCCARTHY, CAMERON RYAN, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, JIM MUNSON, FRANCIS DOWNEY, GUY SKIPWORTH, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS, ROB LEFORTE, JOE BOUGHNER, DAVE EPP, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, DAN FONDA, JOHN DILLON, MATTHEW CONWAY, NARESH RAGHUBEER, MARK AGNEW, JOHN MERRIMAN, PATRICK DION, JENN KEAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, AVIGAIL RUCKER, GREGORY THOMAS and NANCI WAUGH. Today’s question: On this date in history, an estimated 750 million people worldwide tuned in to watch this wedding. Who got married? For extra marks, what word was dropped from the vows that day? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.
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