| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Members of the Florida delegation are seen on the floor at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis. during the first day of the Republican National Convention on July 15, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn and Ari Hawkins Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Denizens of the national security world were planning on spending the week pondering the takeaways of the NATO summit, preparing for the Aspen Security Forum, and keeping a close eye on how the Republican National Convention might shape GOP foreign policy. But the “national” in national security is taking a front seat after the assassination attempt against DONALD TRUMP over the weekend, sparking concerns domestically and internationally that American political violence and instability is surging. “The only thing I kept praying for is that this guy missed, because if he killed him, that would literally be civil war,” a European lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told NatSec Daily. A senior House GOP sounded just as dire: “We came to an inch of a civil war,” the individual told NatSec Daily. Iconic photos of the former president — bloodied ear possibly grazed by a bullet, fist pumped defiantly in the air — blasted around the world following the shooting on Saturday, ushering in a new era in the presidential race. Many Americans and Europeans see the event as the nail in the coffin for President JOE BIDEN’s campaign, while a re-energized Trump takes the national stage at his party’s convention to rally his base. Democracy in the United States felt particularly fragile immediately following the shooting, said STEFAN LEHNE, a former senior Austrian official now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. There have been attempted assassination attempts against European leaders in recent history — such as Slovakian Prime Minister ROBERT FICO — but there weren’t such high concerns about violence breaking out afterwards, he said. If Trump were killed, “we would be in an extremely dangerous situation, a potential civil war” likely caused by radical groups, Lehne told NatSec Daily. “That is completely absent in Europe.” Questions are swirling in Washington about how such a close call could have occurred, how the Secret Service failed to prevent debatably the highest-profile American from being put in a rifle’s scope. Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS announced today that independent presidential candidate ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. will receive Secret Security service, and security was bolstered around the White House soon after the shooting. The assassination attempt also overshadows the Biden administration’s wins from the NATO summit, which saw the White House score big for Ukraine and among other smaller measures to strengthen the alliance, said MATHIEU DROIN, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The shooting “refocuses the attention on the aptitudes of the two candidates, rather than on the critical issues at stake for the U.S. and for the transatlantic bond,” Droin, a former French official, told NatSec Daily. Aspen organizers, meanwhile, are recalibrating in the wake of the shooting. The attack on Trump has scrambled the agenda of the forum, set to start Tuesday, as prominent speakers pulled out to deal with the fallout from the shooting. Among those no longer attending their scheduled panels are Mayorkas and Deputy Attorney General LISA MONACO, whose aides said they were staying back to respond to the assassination attempt. White House Homeland Security Adviser LIZ SHERWOOD-RANDALL will also not attend. Secret Service Director KIMBERLY CHEATLE also has decided not to attend her Aspen panel, a spokesperson said. She will instead remain in Milwaukee throughout the duration of the Republican National Convention, which was already on her schedule because of its security dimensions. The RNC, like other major events such as the presidential inauguration, is classified as a “national special security event.” Read: To the world, Trump 2.0 looks even more likely now by Nahal
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | AIRSTRIKE NEAR RESPONDERS: Israeli forces launched an additional airstrike near emergency responders while they helped civilians hit during an operation in the Al-Mawasi area over the weekend, according to videos and photographs reviewed by The New York Times’ RILEY MELLEN. Several munitions hit the area on Saturday morning as Israel targeted a top Hamas military commander. After the initial strikes, however, at least one smaller missile hit a busy street outside the compound where clearly marked emergency responder cars were, spraying shrapnel and possibly killing workers, the Times reports. Israel’s military said at least five missiles targeted the compound, while the strike that hit the responders was about 100 yards from the building — “suggesting a separate strike,” the Times writes. Local health officials say at least 90 people were killed in the area, which witnesses say was a designated safe area. Hamas officials said the leader Israel targeted, MOHAMMED DEIF, was in good health. Israel is still assessing whether their strike killed Deif: An Israeli official told The Wall Street Journal on Sunday that there’s reason to believe it succeeded, but it could be days or weeks until they can make a final assessment. Israel isn’t letting up: Today, its forces struck southern and central Gaza, leaving civilians unclear where to find safety: “Where to go is what everybody asks, and no one has the answer,” one resident told Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI. STILL NOT ENOUGH PATRIOTS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said his military would need 25 Patriot air defense systems to fully protect Ukraine skies at a press conference in Kyiv today, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Zelesnkyy said that the five Patriot systems pledged to Ukraine during the NATO summit in Washington was a “very serious contribution,” but added that his country will need more F-16s and Patriot systems to fully defend itself against Russian attacks. Ukraine’s relentless pressure campaign on allies to allow it to hit targets inside Russia with donated weapons may be starting to work: “We have begun to receive some positive signals,” Zelenskyy said, though, as NatSec Daily reported, Biden rejected his latest request. Kyiv also intends to have a plan for its next peace summit by November, which he hopes Russian representatives will attend, Zelenskyy told reporters. In the interim, officials are expected to meet in Qatar to discuss energy security, in Turkey to talk about food security, and in Canada to meet about ensuring the safety of children. TRUMP’S VEEP PICK: Sen. J.D. VANCE of Ohio will be DONALD TRUMP’s running mate, and here’s what NatSec Daily readers should know. The first-time Ohio senator is staunchly a part of the populist, non-interventionist wing of the Republican party. A foe of Ukraine aid in the Senate, Vance told our own IAN WARD back in April that the rules-based international order needs to be replaced with a more nationalistic international system where countries act more explicitly in their self-interest. The Iraq War veteran is also strongly opposed to long-term U.S. military entanglements and “forever wars.” Vance is also among those in Republican foreign policy circles pushing for a geopolitical pivot to Asia. At the Munich Security Conference this February, Vance told the audience: “no, I don't think that we should pull out of NATO, and no, I don’t think that we should abandon Europe. But yes, I think that we should pivot to Asia.” He has pushed for tougher trade policies on China and prioritizing weapons shipments to Taiwan as a way to discourage an eventual Chinese invasion across the Straits. Read: 55 things to know about J.D. Vance, Trump’s VP pick by Ian IT’S MONDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
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The F-35 securely connects high-tech platforms and seamlessly shares information across every domain to deliver what’s needed for a successful mission. Learn more. | | | | | O’BRIEN ON BOARD: Former President DONALD TRUMP’s last national security adviser didn’t rule out serving in a second Trump administration today, Eric reports. In an interview on the sidelines of the RNC, ROBERT O’BRIEN noted that Trump has an array of allies that would be able to join his administration. O’Brien pointed to Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), former U.S. Ambassador to Germany and Director of National Intelligence RICHARD GRENELL, former Acting Secretary of Defense CHRIS MILLER and former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO as possible national security and defense officials. He’s also leaving the door open for his own return to government service: He told our own KEVIN BARON “of course” when asked if he'd serve in a second Trump administration. Trump will pursue a “muscular, tough foreign policy” that won't disappoint wary European allies and will project certainty in the face of Russian and Chinese aggression, O’Brien said later in the interview. But he demurred when asked about allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory. NO LONG DISTANCE LOVE: Some world leaders are reaching out to Trump following the shooting, but Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN has no plans to do so, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters. “As far as I know no, there are no such plans” for Putin to talk with the former president, Peskov said on Sunday, per Russian state media. Several world leaders expressed well wishes for Trump after the shooting, and KING CHARLES III sent him a letter, the contents of which were not made public, USA Today’s REBECCA MORIN reports. Peskov also accused Trump’s political opponents of enabling the apparent assassination attempt.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | PYONGYANG’S POT OF GOLD: North Korean hackers laundered stolen cryptocurrency assets through a Cambodian payment service — a major indication of how Pyongyang may look to evade international sanctions in the future, according to Reuters’ TOM WILSON. The North Korean criminal group Lazarus transferred $150,000 in bitcoin to Huione Pay, a service based in Phnom Penh, from an anonymous digital wallet. Those funds, transferred multiple times, were among the $160 million in bitcoin North Korean hackers stole during a major attack on Estonian and Caribbean-based cryptocurrency firms last August. Huione Pay said in a statement it had not known it "received funds indirectly" from the hacks and from North Korea. The United Nations has warned that North Korea is using cryptocurrency, which is significantly less traceable, as a way to conduct transactions in support of its nuclear weapons and other military programs and contravene strict international sanctions.
| | BADGE OF HONOR: Anduril Industries, one of six U.S. defense firms Beijing just slapped with sanctions, said it “only strengthens our resolve to continue providing the U.S. and its allies with the technology needed to deter and defeat unwarranted aggression.” “Anduril joins a long list of defense companies who have been sanctioned by China for doing the same. We still have a lot of work ahead of us and these sanctions only fuel our determination to keep pushing forward,” Anduril said in a statement to our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). The Chinese government imposed sanctions against the firms for contributing to an “arms sale to China’s Taiwan region,” the Foreign Ministry in Beijing said Friday.
| | | |   | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — LAWMAKERS SLAM DOD AMMO FACILITY: A group of progressive lawmakers wants answers from Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH about a government-owned facility’s role in manufacturing bullets used in several high-profile mass shootings. In the letter sent Sunday, Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass), ALEX PADILLA (D-Calif.) and MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii) and Reps. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) and ROBERT GARCIA (D-Calif.) asked the two officials to provide them with more information about the Lake City Army ammunition plant in Independence, Mo. The lawmakers write that the facility, which is operated by Olin Winchester under a contract with the military, produced ammunition that was used in 12 mass shootings since 2012, including the 2012 Aurora movie theater shooting, the 2018 Parkland and 2022 Uvalde school shootings and the 2022 Buffalo supermarket shooting. “DOD should not be subsidizing efforts to pump military-grade weaponry into American communities,” the lawmakers said. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment. INTEL SHARING, PO-RUSSKI: The Republican and Democratic leaders of the House Select Committee on China asked the White House today to disclose whether Russian authorities are sharing intel with Beijing about the U.S. weapons used on the battlefield in Ukraine, our own MILES J. HERSZENHORN writes in. We obtained the letter, which was first reported by Reuters.
| | | IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WON’T COME: European Union foreign affairs ministers are set to snub Hungary by organizing their own foreign affairs summit in August instead of traveling to Budapest for Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN’s event, our own JAKOB HANKE VELA reports. Hungary, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, plans to host a foreign affairs summit in Budapest on Aug. 28-29 — a prime opportunity for Orbán to try to shape the bloc’s foreign policy agenda and for his Foreign Affairs Minister PÉTER SZIJJÁRTÓ to stand in the limelight. But European politicians have been angry with the Hungarian leader for visiting China and Russia recently to talk about the Ukraine war, and JOSEP BORRELL, the EU’s foreign policy chief, will summon the ministers to a “formal” foreign affairs council at the same time as Orbán’s summit, three EU diplomats told Jakob. RECRUITMENT BOOMS: A man threw a grenade at a military draft office in Ukraine overnight, Reuters’ TOM BALMFORTH reports. No one was hurt in the explosion and his exact motive was unknown, but the action underscores public discontent with Kyiv’s conscription orders. Despite a lack of public enthusiasm about the draft, Kyiv’s campaign to mobilize more fighting-age men and replenish is picking up.
| | — Estonian Prime Minister KAJA KALLAS resigned her post as she prepares to become the European Union’s chief diplomat.
| | — ANA VANESSA HERRERO, SAMANTHA SCHMIDT and KAREN DEYOUNG, The Washington Post: Biden made a bold deal with Venezuela’s strongman. Will it pay off? — NICHOLAS LOKKER and KATE JOHNSTON, Foreign Policy: For Putin, the EU is a bigger threat than NATO — AARON ZELIN, War on the Rocks: A globally integrated Islamic State
| | — Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:15 a.m.: Connecting the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific: Reflections on the NATO Summit. — Brookings Institution, 9:30 a.m.: Aid data, impact, and the sustainable development goals. — Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: Enterprise diplomacy: Colombia FTA case study. — Hudson Institute, 1 p.m.: Leading in the cyber competition with China. — United States Institute of Peace, 2 p.m.: Why peace remains elusive on the Korean Peninsula: Reassessing the U.S. approach to North Korea 70 Years after the 1954 Geneva Conference. — Institute of World Politics, 3 p.m.: Zero Point Four: How U.S. leadership in maritime will secure America’s future. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: Book discussion about “The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the U.S. and China Will Shape Our Century.” — Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 8 p.m.: The Brussels effect: Digital market regulation in East Asia. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is the cause of instability in our lives. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who makes sure NatSec Daily doesn’t devolve into civil war.
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