| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | Presented by ExxonMobil | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | |  Donald Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) did not speak to delegates last night, but we watched them interact for an hour from the convention floor. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | The first day of the GOP convention in Milwaukee was supposed to be about something mundane: economic policy. The slogan was “Make America Wealthy Once Again.” Instead, it was dominated by discussion of the attempted assassination of DONALD TRUMP, the announcement of J.D. VANCE as Trump’s running mate in the afternoon, and Trump’s WWE-style entrance in the arena at night. The vibe was religious rather than earthly. Trump and Vance did not speak to delegates last night, but we watched them interact for an hour from the convention floor through a range of eclectic speeches, including a Catholic prayer, a Sikh prayer and a Teamster’s sermon about the power of unions. The late-night conversation among reporters and operatives was how dominant Trump appeared vis-à-vis Vance. Some candidate pairings come off as two equals (BILL CLINTON and AL GORE, MITT ROMNEY and PAUL RYAN). Others come off as a slick newbie and an eminent grace (GEORGE W. BUSH and DICK CHENEY, BARACK OBAMA and JOE BIDEN). But given the extraordinary circumstances, it was hard for Vance to do much more than look like a very junior sidekick in this new partnership (more like SARAH PALIN to JOHN McCAIN or DAN QUAYLE to GEORGE H.W. BUSH). Trump passed over a high-profile Republican woman (New York Rep. ELISE STEFANIK) who might have appealed to those suburban moms Trump has bled. He skipped a favorite of Senate Republicans (South Carolina Sen. TIM SCOTT) who would have been the first African-American on a Republican ticket and boosted the Trump campaign’s fruitful efforts with Black voters. Ditto for a history-making Hispanic running mate (Florida Sen. MARCO RUBIO). In fact, Trump completely ignored a bit of conventional wisdom that has formed in political circles in recent years: that there would never be another presidential ticket with two white men. But Trump is at the height of his popularity in the GOP with no ideological factions to woo. (Even the pro-life lobby caved to his wishes this week by not mounting a fight over the platform.) At this point in the campaign, a nominee will usually look to a running mate to shore up some political weakness. But there’s not much Trump needs from Vance right now and not much that Vance provides for Trump. “This attempted assassination of the 45th and soon to be 47th president of the United States has united our conference in a way that nothing else could have done,” Rep. MARK ALFORD (R-Mo.) told POLITICO. While that is a good encapsulation of the crass political dynamic in Milwaukee, it is hard to convey the almost spiritual quality that infuses many conversations about Trump from Republicans here in the wake of the assassination attempt. Delegates told us Trump was “touched by God” and “nearly martyred,” and talked about the white bandage covering his right ear with a kind of religious reverence. HARMEET DHILLON described Trump with the Hindi word for fearless (nirbhay). Teamsters President SEAN O’BRIEN said Trump has “proven to be one tough SOB.” Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), said that “evil came for the man we admire and love so much” and “I thank God that His hand was on President Trump.” North Carolina Lt. Gov. MARK ROBINSON called Trump “the Braveheart of our time.” Sen. Tim Scott declared, “If you didn’t believe in miracles before Saturday, you better be believing now.” The effect of combining Vance’s announcement and Trump’s grand entrance on the same night was for the latter to overshadow the former. On CNN, for example, they kept the camera tight on Trump for most of the hour rather than on the two candidates together. We were down among the throngs of delegates gathered below the Trump-Vance box and it was pretty clear which of the two was producing all the energy and excitement. When the convention program ended last night, Trump left his new running mate in the stands with TUCKER CARLSON, Rep. BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.) and House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and exited the arena alone. But, but but: In the long run, Trump’s veep decision could prove to be very significant. Vance represents the bleeding edge of the GOP’s populist-isolationist wing, which is still a minority in Congress. Now it is the future of the party. Trump’s advisers and other Republican strategists here repeatedly emphasized the more superficial strategic qualities of the Vance pick: his bio (the Marines and Yale Law School), his youth (he’s 39) and the Ohioan’s potential Rust Belt appeal. “It makes sure that the Blue Wall stays flattened,” CHARLIE GEROW, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist told POLITICO. “The sweep across Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin is now solid.” Other Republicans argued Vance could help boost Ohio GOP Senate and House candidates. But policy-wise, picking Vance could have more sweeping implications for the GOP. Elevating the senator to Trumpism’s heir apparent is an enormous defeat for the pre-Trump Republican Party, especially its internationalist wing. Vance is stridently opposed to sending more aid to Ukraine. Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and our European allies are among the biggest losers when it comes to Trump’s choice. (Graham reportedly lobbied Trump not to pick Vance.) Meanwhile, as our colleague Olivia Beavers told us after surveying a number of House members here, the Freedom Caucus is ecstatic about Vance. Back in Ohio: A convention is a constant reminder that all politics is local. Down on the floor, Florida Republicans were the rare pocket of mild discontent over the Vance pick. If Trump had chosen Sen. Marco Rubio, a coveted statewide Senate seat would have opened up and created new political opportunities. But instead, it’s Ohio’s GOP that gets to benefit from that dynamic. Vance’s home state delegates were buzzing about who Gov. MIKE DeWINE — no Trump fan — might choose to replace Vance if Trump is elected president. The field seems wide open, with one Ohio Republican telling Olivia that his phone has been “blowing up with literally every name that’s run for office in the last decade being tossed around.” Among those mentioned: state Sen.MATT DOLAN, an heir to the Cleveland Guardians baseball team; GOP Reps. DAVE JOYCE and MIKE CAREY; and VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who offered himself up even before the Vance decision was public. Related reads:
Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: At ExxonMobil, we’ve captured more CO2 than any other company, so we have the expertise to help some of the most carbon-intensive sectors. With more than 30 years' experience, we’re a global leader in carbon capture and storage. Now, we’re advancing projects around the world, including in Louisiana and Texas, to help us and our customers reduce emissions. Let’s deliver. | | | JUST POSTED — “How Lara Trump found her place in the family business,” by WaPo’s Kara Voght and Maeve Reston HOLY MOLY — The richest person in the world, ELON MUSK, plans to start donating $45 million a month to the Trump-supporting America PAC, WSJ’s Dana Mattioli, Emily Glazer and Khadeeja Safdar scooped. Needless to say, that level of giving could completely reshape the financial landscape of the race, helping Republicans flood the airwaves and organize. As NYT’s Teddy Schleifer reports, Musk’s allies — including Palantir’s JOE LONSDALE and the WINKLEVOSS twins — could turn America PAC into a major new player backed by the tech industry’s right wing. ONE TO WATCH — “Jan. 6 marchers at RNC Convention complicate efforts to avoid subject,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Josh Dawsey GRILL MARKS — The invitation-only CNN-POLITICO Grill has quickly become a key gathering place at the Milwaukee convention, featuring everything from Matt Wuerker cartoons to famous Milwaukee foods (cheddar, brats, Kringle and Purple Door ice cream, etc.). It also hosted great conversations between POLITICO reporters and GOP newsmakers. A sampling of the most notable moments yesterday:
- You can watch videos of NRSC Chair STEVE DAINES’ (R-Mont.) most striking comments in conversation with Rachael here, here and here.
- Young Republicans told Irie Sentner that both parties need to turn down the political temperature in America.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: The world needs ways to reduce carbon emissions. At ExxonMobil, we’re working on solutions in our own operations – like carbon capture and clean energy from hydrogen – that could also help in other industries like manufacturing, commercial transportation and power generation, too. Helping deliver heavy industry with low emissions. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. At the White House Biden is in Las Vegas, where he’ll have an interview with BET’s Ed Gordon at noon, speak at the NAACP National Convention at 1 p.m., and take part in an economic summit with Rep. STEVEN HORSFORD (D-Nev.) at 3:45 p.m. (Read more below on what he’ll announce.) VP KAMALA HARRIS will have briefings and meetings. On the trail What we’re watching … Today, Day Two of the Republican National Convention will culminate in programming centering on crime and immigration. Among the primetime speakers tonight: NIKKI HALEY. But before we get there, a series of newsy interviews are teed up today at the CNN-POLITICO Grill. Among them: Eugene speaks with Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP (2 ET/1 CT), and Rachael talks to Ohio Rep. JIM JORDAN (2:30 ET/1:30 CT), House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE (3 ET / 2 CT) and Senate Minority Whip JOHN THUNE (3:30 ET / 2:30 CT). Follow along with the latest throughout the day at POLITICO.com/RNC
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | TRUMP CARDS
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The country is still waiting for answers about why Thomas Matthew Crooks tried to former President Donald Trump. | Scott Goldsmith for POLITICO | ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT — More than two days on, the country is still waiting for answers about why THOMAS MATTHEW CROOKS tried to kill the former president (and ended up murdering a rallygoer). Seeking information on his motive, the FBI said yesterday they’d accessed the data from his cellphone and other electronic devices, per NYT’s Glenn Thrush. But there were no immediate major findings at Quantico. There’s still plenty of digging to go. The feds have determined that Crooks’ gun was legally bought by his father in 2013, WaPo’s Tim Craig, Jasmine Hilton, Devlin Barrett, Emily Davies and Holly Bailey report. But former classmates and distant family members remain baffled, according to NBC’s Deon Hampton, Jonathan Dienst, Tom Winter and Erik Ortiz, and Crooks’ parents in Bethel Park didn’t have much in the way of insight to offer investigators, WSJ’s Clare Ansberry, Sadie Gurman and Joel Schectman report. The security reaction was swift yesterday: Biden ordered the Secret Service to start protecting ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS announced, per CBS. And the administration also beefed up security for Biden, Trump, Harris and now Vance, per Bloomberg. As more questions mount about what went wrong — including new video showing that bystanders warned about Crooks on the roof more than a minute before he started shooting, per WaPo — Secret Service Director KIMBERLY CHEATLE sat down with ABC’s Pierre Thomas. She took responsibility and called the shooting “unacceptable,” though she said she would not resign. On the Hill, members of both parties laid out plans to investigate the attempted assassination quickly, per Roll Call. As blame falls on the Secret Service and the FBI takes the lead investigative role, Josh Gerstein writes this morning that this review might provide the FBI a badly needed opportunity to win back trust with Republicans. JUDICIARY SQUARE CANNON FODDER — After Judge AILEEN CANNON’s shocking dismissal of the federal criminal classified documents case against Trump, special counsel JACK SMITH’s office said he would appeal the decision, per Bloomberg. And Cannon’s decision, which almost nobody expected, brought yet another round of legal-world scrutiny on the inexperienced judge, NYT’s Alan Feuer and Eileen Sullivan report: “The ruling upended 25 years of Justice Department procedure for naming and governing special counsels and called into question decisions by previous courts reaching back to the Watergate era.” WHAT TISH JAMES IS UP TO — “Trial to Decide N.R.A.’s Financial Future Begins in Manhattan,” by NYT’s Danny Hakim and Kate Christobek: “The former board president of the National Rifle Association spent Monday on a witness stand trying to ward off an effort by New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, to have an outside monitor appointed to oversee the gun group.” 2024 WATCH
|  Many economists expect that Donald Trump’s policies on trade, immigration and taxes would worsen inflation in a second term. | Nam Y. Huh/AP Photo | IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID — For all the chaos of this election cycle, there’s one simple lens to understand Trump’s lead in the polls: Just as in the U.K., France and elsewhere, voters are fed up with sustained inflation and housing shortages, and punishing the incumbents. The latest FT-Michigan Ross poll of consumer sentiment finds that voters think Trump would make better off, rather than worse off, by a 10-point margin. Biden continues to struggle mightily with voters on the economy. Trump’s advantage endures even when voters aren’t necessarily tethered to reality: The survey finds that most Americans think inflation has gotten worse in recent months (it hasn’t). And as The New Yorker’s John Cassidy reports, many economists expect that Trump’s policies on trade, immigration and taxes would worsen inflation in a second term. Long staring down a deficit on this issue, Biden is taking steps to convince voters that he could help them in a second term. WaPo’s Jeff Stein and Rachel Siegel scooped that Biden today will announce a proposed nationwide rent increase cap. Under the plan, which would need congressional passage, large landlords would pay a tax penalty for raising rents more than 5 percent in existing units. “The plan is also likely to prove controversial among economists, including many Democrats,” over fears that it could hamper new construction. More top reads:
- Survey says: Trump is in good shape in the latest batch of YouGov polls for The Times and SAY24, which find him leading by anywhere from 2 to 7 points across all seven major swing states in a multi-candidate field. Amazingly, Biden is flailing even as Democrats lead by no fewer than 7 points in all five of those states hosting Senate races. Meanwhile, a new VCU poll finds Trump ahead by 3 in Virginia, per WaPo’s Gregory Schneider.
- Endorsement watch: The Teamsters are considering not supporting anyone in the presidential race, Reuters’ Trevor Hunnicutt and Jarrett Renshaw scooped. Though the decision hasn’t been finalized, that would be a huge labor setback for Biden, amid “months of deteriorating relations and rising concerns about Biden’s political endurance.” Meanwhile, Teamsters President SEAN O’BRIEN spoke at the RNC last night in a history-making move as Trump works to woo labor and other working-class voters, per Brittany Gibson. And though the United Auto Workers union is backing Biden, its members are divided, Reuters’ Timothy Aeppel reports from Racine.
- Welcome back: Former HUD Secretary MARCIA FUDGE is joining the Biden campaign as a new national co-chair.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil:   | | | POLICY CORNER ONE TO WATCH — “Pentagon confronts Gold Star divide among grieving military families,” by WaPo’s Dan Lamothe: “Some want to preserve a strict interpretation of who qualifies for a status revered within the military community. Others seek a more inclusive definition. … On Friday, however, after multiple inquiries from The Washington Post, the Pentagon withdrew the working group’s proposal — which remains shrouded in secrecy — as it awaited final approval.” THE WHITE HOUSE
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After a brief pause, the worries about Joe Biden's candidacy are revving back up among many Democrats. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | ANOTHER BIG MOMENT FOR BIDEN — In his interview with NBC’s Lester Holt that aired last night, Biden said it was a “mistake” to use the word “bullseye” about Trump in a quote that generated outrage on the right after the assassination attempt. But Biden stuck to his broader point, which is that Trump’s plans deserve more scrutiny and that Trump is the one who has threatened American democracy. In another notable interview, Biden told Complex Networks’ Speedy Morman that he considered himself a Zionist but that he’d also done “more for the Palestinian community than anybody” by getting aid to people in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas war, per CNN. As for staying on the ballot? “Unless I get hit by a train, yeah,” Biden said. But after a brief pause, the worries and Dump Biden plans are revving back up among many Democrats. NYT’s Reid Epstein, Lisa Lerer, Katie Glueck and Nicholas Nehamas report that “many in the party maintain grave concerns about the president’s ability to win,” though they still lack consensus about how to move forward. The private lobbying to Biden’s inner circle is continuing, per CNN’s John King — most notably with polling from STANLEY GREENBERG that shows the president is on track to “lose everything.” And more Democrats are growing worried that Biden isn’t talking to enough advisers or getting a full picture of the state of the race, WaPo’s Michael Scherer, Tyler Pager, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Toluse Olorunnipa report. More top reads:
- Slowing the momentum: “Not a single Democratic lawmaker has publicly called on Biden to step aside since Friday, when two House Democrats appealed for him to leave the race,” WSJ’s Annie Linskey, Andrew Restuccia, Katy Stech Ferek and Emily Glazer note this morning.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Bob Menendez’s jurors are beginning their second full day of deliberations. Masha Gessen was sentenced to eight years in prison in Russia in absentia. Doug Burgum sounds like a future Trump Cabinet secretary. Mike Johnson had some teleprompter troubles. Liz Truss is at the RNC. Joni Ernst ditched her shoes. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the CNN-POLITICO Grill yesterday: David Leavy, Mark Leibovich, Rick Santorum, Manu Raju, Wolf Blitzer, Tammy Haddad, Shimon Prokupecz, Josh Dawsey, Paul Kane, Jonathan Martin, Jonathan Swan, Tim Alberta, Jonathan Capehart, Amy Walter, Molly Ball, Geoff Bennett, Maryam Mujica, Teresa Carlson, Goli Sheikholeslami, Cally Baute, Erik Hower, Tony Zagora, Jon Banner, Sam Tatevosyan, Rachel Michael, Leo Farber, Joe McGowan, Taylor Booth, Matt Haller, Andrew Kovalcin, and Brian and Jessica Bartlett. Pic ... Another pic SPOTTED last night at a party held by American Global Strategies at Third Coast Provisions in Milwaukee: Robert O’Brien, Mike Pompeo, Duke Buchan, Alex Gray, Brian Cavanaugh, Madeleine Westerhout, James Skinner, Katie Price, Reps. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) and Celeste Maloy (R-Utah), Elbridge Colby, Virginia Boney, John Rader, Andrew Bremberg, Lanhee Chen, George Glass, Ken Howery, Bill Grayson, Matt Whitaker, Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd, Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, Danish Ambassador Jesper Møller Sørensen, Azerbaijani Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim, Dutch Ambassador Birgitta Tazelaar and Estonian Ambassador Kristjan Prikk. MEDIA MOVE — Anthony Fisher is now a senior editor at MSNBC Daily. He previously was senior opinion editor and a columnist at The Daily Beast. TRANSITIONS — Drew Hudson is joining TechNet as general counsel and director of federal policy. He most recently was legislative director for Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), and is a Jeff Sessions alum. … Peter Juul is now director of national security policy at the Progressive Policy Institute. He previously had a Substack, The Liberal Patriot, and is a Center for American Progress alum. … Lydia Hennessey is now director at Trident DMG. She previously was a managing supervisor at FleishmanHillard. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign, and her husband, a New Hampshire-based real estate investor, welcomed Nicholas Robert “Niko” on Wednesday. Instapics HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) … NYT’s Shane Goldmacher … Neil Chatterjee … CBS’ Ben Tracy … Maddie Conway … Randy DeCleene of The Fund for American Studies … PhRMA’s Stami Williams … Julie Tagen of House Oversight … Chad Carlough of Rep. Jerry Carl’s (R-Ala.) office … Anita McBride … Scott Melville of the Consumer Healthcare Products Association … Marisol Samayoa of Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Calif.) office … Amanda Henneberg of Cavalry … Riley Roberts … Kathy Calvin … Betty Hudson … Zach Sentementes … Molly Ritner ... Amanda Hallberg Greenwell ... Manuel Bonilla … Doug Feith … Judge Don Willett … former Reps. Ross Spano (R-Fla.), Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Michael Bilirakis (R-Fla.) … Chad Griffin … POLITICO’s Kalon Makle, Luc Traugott and Genevieve Suplee … former Labor Secretary Alexis Herman … Marcus Towns … Teri Whitcraft … Brooke Starr of Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s (R-Okla.) office … Gordon Sondland … Duncan McGaan … Karin Johanson Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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