| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan and Sue Allan with Philippe J. Fournier | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → The Cabinet shuffle that backfired. → Liberal MP JAMES MALONEY downplays caucus discord. → Today’s trivia: On Canadian gold medals in the swimming pool. |  | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | | |
Good morning! I’m your guest host, PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER, editor-in-chief of 338Canada. It’s Day 2 of my Ottawa Playbook “summer takeover” and I’m feeling emboldened. I’m here for the next two weeks to explore some numbers behind the numbers that often preoccupy our attention.
|  Last year at this time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shuffled his Cabinet. Hill watchers are now watching for what's ahead when the PM returns from vacation. | Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press via AP | SHUFFLE AND A MISS — One year ago today, my federal projection update at 338Canada registered a significant jump for the Conservatives following a week of especially poor polling for the Liberals. → Rear-view mirror: As many of you will remember, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU shuffled his Cabinet July 26, 2023 — a mid-mandate move designed to convince Canadians that his Liberals had not lost touch. → Quick rewind: The top-line numbers last year at this time: Conservatives, 37 percent; Liberals, 29 percent; New Democratic Party, 19 percent. Polling results like that today would have Liberals MPs and their staffers popping champagne. → Year over year: The most recent 338 update had the Conservatives leading the Liberals by an average of 18 points — 42 percent to 24 percent. TEFLON FORD — A new Ontario poll from Abacus Data released in the Star last weekend puts Doug Ford’s PC at 44 percent of voting intentions across Ontario, the highest level of support since Ford’s re-election in 2022. The updated 338Canada Ontario projection puts the PC at an average of 93 seats, leaving only crumbs to opposition parties. Yet one more sign that Ontario voters will head to the polls early? This spring, maybe? Three more numbers: 3: That’s how many provinces go to the polls in October: British Columbia on Oct. 19; New Brunswick on Oct. 21; Saskatchewan on Oct. 28. We’ll look closer at these races later this week. 47: That’s the new majority threshold in the B.C. Legislature — up from 44 since the new electoral map in the province increased the number of elected MLAs to 93 from 87. 0: Remember the B.C. Liberals? Few B.C. voters do. Polling from British Columbia in the past year has shown a historic fall from grace for the rebranded BC United. In May 2023, a Research Co. poll had the BC United at 33 percent in the province. One year later, the BCU struggles to poll in double-digits, having seen its MLA John Rustad take over the once-fringe B.C. Conservatives and lift it from 4 percent in May 2023 to the mid-30s in the current poll aggregate. — For the record: The latest 338Canada projection for British Columbia has the Uniteds at zero seats. Can BCU mount a comeback? Yesterday, BCU announced on X it had raised more than C$200,000 last week. So we shall see. — Questions for me: Send them here — I’ll dive into the Playbook mailbag next week. | | DRIVING THE DAY | |
DEFENSIVE ZONE — Liberal MP JAMES MALONEY stepped in on Monday to downplay speculation about the finance minister’s future, comparing it to sports radio blue-skying about the Maple Leafs.
“We’re in a hockey town. It's the off-season. So, what do people do? They spend all their time speculating on whether JOHN TAVARES or AUSTON MATTHEWS should be the number one center,” he said at a Toronto news conference. “I talk to my caucus colleagues every single day and we have complete confidence in CHRYSTIA FREELAND as a finance minister. These whispers in the shadows — and that's what they are — take them for what they're worth.” — The context: Earlier this month, The Globe and Mail reported unnamed sources saying the PM’s inner circle is displeased with Freeland’s performance — something PMO rejects. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU helped the story along when he said that he’s been trying to recruit former central banker MARK CARNEY into politics for years. — The line: “My focus is on working hard to deliver for Canadians every single day,” Freeland said. “I feel I have the support I need to do my job.” OUT OF SIGHT — Although the PM is on holidays, it has not stopped speculation about what comes next. CATHERINE LÉVESQUE, RYAN TUMILTY and STUART THOMSON even served up a feature on the 10 people who could step in were JUSTIN TRUDEAU to step down. — Waiting in the wings: “Trudeau has repeatedly said he has no plans to resign, insisting he will lead the Liberal Party of Canada into the next election, currently set for October 2025,” the team writes. “But after months of dismal polls, the pressure on him is mounting after his party failed to keep a formerly safe Liberal Toronto riding in a June by-election, signaling growing unpopularity with this government among Canadians.” Pollster DAVID COLETTO says Canadians are in a bad mood. — Disappointment and fatigue: “Trudeau’s personal image is in a difficult position. There’s a broad and deep negative sentiment out and it’s worse than he’s faced at any previous point in his leadership of the Liberals or in his time as prime minister,” the founder and CEO of Abacus Data writes. “Some of it is personal, some of it is anger and hatred, but I think much of it is deep disappointment and fatigue.” Former Clerk of the Privy Council MICHAEL WERNICK writes: "The biggest challenge for an ageing government isn’t any specific issue or indicator, but rather a deadly combination of malaise and gloom about the country and fatigue with a now far-too-familiar prime minister. The mood for change is being effectively stoked by their opponents and armchair critics." AMANDA COLETTA shared with readers of The Washington Post an idea much discussed since PAUL WELLS published Justin Trudeau On the Ropes earlier this spring. — Down, but not out: “Analysts and members of Trudeau’s inner circle say the amateur boxer is accustomed to being underestimated, and he performs well when he’s on the ropes,” she writes. “The question is whether there’s time enough to reverse his party’s fortunes.” The Globe’s ANDREW COYNE says the PM appears ready to go down with the ship. — Sink or swim: “Whether the crew are quite so ready to go down with him is another matter, but as they appear to have had their mouths sewn shut we may never know.” | | | | Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat. | | | | | | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is on vacation in British Columbia.
— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto with no public events on her itinerary. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE holds an ax-the-tax rally in Wawa, Ontario, in the afternoon and another in Hearst in the evening. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH has not released his public itinerary. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY takes part in a town hall on rising rents at Amica Beechwood Village. | | MEDIA ROOM | | | | 
Our colleagues suggest Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz could bring the “guy you would meet at a backyard barbecue in the Midwest” vibes to the ticket. | Stephen Maturen/Getty Images | — Top of POLITICO this morning via MEREDITH LEE HILL and ELENA SCHNEIDER: Why TIM WALZ is suddenly in the hunt for VP. And in case you missed it, ROY COOPER just bowed out of the veepstakes. — The NYT reports: Protests erupt in Venezuela as nations denounce election result. — DAVID BAXTER of CBC News reports on an internal study that found that Black, Indigenous and racialized employees in the Privy Council Office are regularly subjected to a culture of "racial stereotyping, microagressions and verbal violence.” — The Star’s ROBERT BENZIE says it is not yet known how many ridings will be up for grabs in the next Ontario election. “Elections Ontario is still awaiting direction from the legislature.” — On “The Decibel” pod today: What Jasper can teach us about managing wildfires. And on “The Big Story” pod: The fight to save Jasper. — From JUSTIN LING in today's Star: "Trudeau tried to save journalism. This is why he failed." — Finally today, JESSE BROWN interviewed DEREK GUY, the menswear critic that recently had ROGER STONE in a huff, on “Canadaland” about how Canada’s political leaders dress. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to former Ottawa Mayor JIM WATSON, former Quebec MNA LORRAINE RICHARD, Alberta MLA JOE CECI and former Conservative MP KELLIE LEITCH.
Celebrate your day with the Playbook community. Send us the details. We’ll let everyone know. Spotted: Conservative MP TOM KMIEC canvassing with Kitchener South—Hespeler candidate MATT STRAUSS. … Conservative MP PHILIP LAWRENCE, making a blood donation. Liberal MP JULIE DZEROWICZ playing some ping-pong at OssFest on Ossington Avenue. Sports Minister CARLA QUALTROUGH and ambassador STÉPHANE DION at the women’s soccer match between France and Canada. | | PROZONE | | Don’t miss our latest newsletter for Pro subscribers by SUE ALLAN: Trump versus the Inflation Reduction Act Just published by KARL MATHIESEN and ZACK COLMAN: Climate world girds for Trump 2.0. In other news for Pros: — No, the EV isn’t dead — just briefly comatose. — French fiber optic cables hit by ‘major sabotage’ in second Olympics attack. — The race to find the next designer drug before it kills. — U.S. support for direct air capture snubs carbon removal rivals, critics say. — California looks to extend carbon market 5 years ahead of end date. | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | |
9 a.m. (10 a.m. AT): MP MIKE KELLOWAY will be at Louisbourg Seafoods Limited to celebrate the opening of the first commercial fishing season for whelk.
9 a.m. National Revenue Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU and Fisheries and Oceans Minister Diane Lebouthillier will hold a press briefing on housing in Saint-Ulric, Quebec. 10 a.m. (11 a.m. AT) Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY will be in Chester, Nova Scotia, to announce funding for Sustane Technologies. 10:15 a.m. (11:15 a.m. AT) Energy and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON and Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will be in Halifax with MPs DARREN FISHER, LENA METLEGE DIAB and KODY BLOIS to make a clean energy announcement. 10:30 a.m. Small Business Minister RECHIE VALDEZ will be at the MaRS Discovery District for an announcement on innovation and support for Canadian start-ups owned by entrepreneurs from “equity-deserving groups.” | | | TRIVIA | | | Monday’s answer: CHARLES and DIANA married on July 29, 1981. Dropped from the ceremony was the word “obey.” “Who didn’t get up at 4 a.m. to watch?” asks Playbook reader LAURA JARVIS. Props to PATRICK DION, JOHN DILLON, STACEY NORONHA, J. ROLLAND VAIVE, NANCI WAUGH, JOHN MERRIMAN, BRAM ABRAMSON, SARAH ANSON-CARTWRIGHT, RENA PATEL, HELEN DARBY, MICHAEL WERNICK, MARCEL MARCOTTE, MATTHEW CONWAY, JOANNA PLATER, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS, SCOTT LOHNES, MORGAN LARHANT, BARBARA GRANTHAM, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, ALYSON FAIR, ROSS LECLAIR and LAURIE MACE. Also to AMY CASTLE, CARRIE CULLIGAN YEAMANS, MARC LEBLANC, DAN MCCARTHY, CAMERON RYAN, BILL GARVIN, KELSEY MACDONALD, CAMERON PENNER, JIM CAMPBELL, ALEX BALLINGALL, MARY JANE ALLAN, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, JOHN ECKER, LISA HALEY, NICOLAS PELLETIER, DENISE SIELE, CHELSEA BERRY, CHIP SMITH, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, LESLIE SWARTMAN, MICHAEL FOLKERSON, JENN KEAY, RAYLENE LANG, MALCOLM MCKAY, KEN FAULKNER, DARRYL DAMUDE and KATELIN CUMMINGS. Today’s question: Canada won three Olympic gold medals in the pool on this day in history. Tell us who won … and when. Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
