3 big storylines to watch this week

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Aug 25, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

WHAT POLLING WONKS ARE READING — Nate Silver for Silver Bulletin: “We removed RFK Jr. from our model. But it didn’t hurt Kamala.”

THREE BIG STORIES WE’RE WATCHING …

An Israeli Apache helicopter flies over Israel on Aug. 25, 2024.

An Israeli Apache helicopter flies over Israel on Sunday, Aug. 25. | Ariel Schalit/AP Photo

1. MIDDLE EAST ON THE BRINK — Fears of a wider regional war in the Middle East are dramatically higher today after Israel launched a major strike on Lebanon in a preemptive effort to stave off an attack by Hezbollah.

“We are determined to do everything to defend our country, to return the residents of the north securely to their homes and to continue upholding a simple rule: Whoever harms us — we will harm them,” Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said.

AP: “[Hezbollah] responded that it had launched hundreds of rockets and drones to avenge the killing of one of its top commanders last month. The heavy exchange of fire does not appear to have ignited a long-feared war, but the situation remains tense.”

In a statement, NSC spokesperson SEAN SAVETT said President JOE BIDEN “is closely monitoring events,” and that “senior U.S. officials have been communicating continuously with their Israeli counterparts. We will keep supporting Israel’s right to defend itself, and we will keep working for regional stability.”

CBS News: “Multiple sources in the region told CBS News that the U.S., Qatar, Israel, and all relevant actors are now sending the message to both Hezbollah and Iran to de-escalate. Three sources told CBS that the Qatari PM MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN BIN JASSIM AL THANI is still scheduled at this point to travel Monday to Tehran to brief Iranian leaders on diplomacy underway regarding Gaza and to dissuade any potential Iranian attack on Israel.

“The strikes are not disrupting the diplomacy underway in Cairo where the U.S. and Egypt are trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. CIA director WILLIAM BURNS and Mr. Biden's top Mideast adviser, BRETT McGURK, remain in Cairo negotiating the details of how to implement a potential hostage and prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel. An Israeli official confirmed that [the] Israeli delegation is still expected to participate today.”

Also in the region: Air Force Gen. C.Q. BROWN, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “began an unannounced visit to the Middle East on Saturday to discuss ways to avoid any new escalation in tensions that could spiral into a broader conflict,” Reuters reports.

Donald Trump speaks in Las Vegas.

Donald Trump is trying to find the right line of attack to stop Kamala Harris' momentum. | Julia Nikhinson/AP

2. TRUMP TRIES TO REGAIN HIS FOOTING — Allies of DONALD TRUMP are looking for ways to refocus the former president as he “struggles to adapt to [KAMALA] HARRIS,” as WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Marianne LeVine write.

At would-be counter-programming during the Democratic National Convention, Trump “frequently departed from the policy themes assigned to each day’s event — an attempt to keep him focused on poll-tested messages over his pugnacious impulses — illustrating his continued struggle to find his footing in a changed race. …

A person close to the campaign said Trump does not like reading issue-focused speeches that do not entertain his live audience. … Asked about the perception that the change in Democratic candidates had thrown him off, Trump responded: ‘No, I think we’re doing great.’ He proceeded to complain about how ‘unfair’ the change was.

“Trump has publicly acknowledged his challenge in defining Harris, describing his goal as to portray her as a ‘communist.’ His frustration with his advisers burst into public Wednesday when he mocked them for telling him to focus on politics instead of personal insults. He then polled the crowd on which they preferred and, when they predictably cheered louder for personal attacks, Trump joked, ‘My advisers are fired.’”

In an attempt to dull one of Democrats’ sharpest attacks, Trump “attempted to strike a new tone on the issue of abortion this week, saying he would be ‘great for women and their reproductive rights,’” Jessica Piper reports. (Striking a similar note: Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio), who told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Trump would veto a federal abortion ban if passed by Congress.)

This amounts to a major tonal shift for Trump and Republicans, and, as Jessica notes, drew immediate criticism from leading opponents of abortion rights. “Not only is it not principled, it’s not going to help the Trump campaign to be trying to sound like a Democrat right now,” said LILA ROSE, founder of the anti-abortion group Live Action, in one fairly representative critique.

Amid Harris’ rise, Trump will “be more active on the campaign trail,” his advisers tell WSJ’s Alex Leary and Vivian Salama. That includes trips to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania within the next week. But, in a shift, “more of the events are smaller in scale, which saves money, but they also are designed to keep Trump more focused on a given topic. … Trump is expected to do more meet-and-greets and smaller events that take aim at two areas where the campaign believes Harris is most vulnerable: the border and the economy.

“Trump and his allies have shown frustration about the energy and momentum surrounding Harris but continue to expect it to level off.”

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 22: Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris waves to the crowd after speaking on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center on August 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Delegates, politicians, and Democratic Party supporters are gathering in Chicago, as current Vice President Kamala Harris is named her party's   presidential nominee. The DNC takes place from August 19-22.

Kamala Harris is hoping to use the convention as a springboard into the general election. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

3. HOW LONG WILL THE HARRIS HONEYMOON LAST? — In the month since KAMALA HARRIS took over at the top of the Democratic ticket, her campaign has raised $540 million. That’s according to a new memo from Harris for President Chair JEN O’MALLEY DILLON that rattles off a number of figures the campaign is eager to cite as further evidence of its momentum.

From the memo: “Headed into Labor Day, our campaign is using those resources and enthusiasm to build on our momentum, taking no voters for granted and communicating relentlessly with battleground voters every single day between now and Election Day — all the while Trump is focused on very little beyond online tantrums and attacking the voters critical to winning 270 electoral votes.”

But O’Malley Dillon has a warning for Democrats: Don’t get complacent, and don’t take anything for granted — notes she sounded in an interview with Eugene earlier this week. Harris and running mate Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ are launching a bus tour in Georgia later this week to try and capitalize on the momentum. (They recently canceled a trip to the Peach State because of a tropical storm.) Keep reading for more on the Harris camp’s policy moves …

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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IN THE HOT SEAT — “‘Whatever Happens in the Sauna Stays in the Sauna’: Diplomacy, Conducted in the Nude,” by NYT’s Alyson Krueger: “The Finnish Embassy offers one of the hottest invitations in Washington: a chance to discuss serious topics in a sauna.”

SUNDAY BEST …

— ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. on whether he has been promised a position in a potential second Trump administration, on “Fox News Sunday”: “There's been no commitments. But you know, I met with President Trump, with his family, with his close advisers, and we just made a general commitment that we were going to work together. … I’m going to be campaigning actively.”

On whether he connected with the Harris campaign: “I reached out to them on the same bases that I reached out to President Trump, but I actually talked to other presidential candidates, including CHASE OLIVER and the Libertarian Party, about figuring out ways that we could end the polarization and the hatred and the vitriol.”

On whether his Trump support is revenge against Democrats: “I don’t act out of anger or revenge or resentment. It’s a bad motivation. It’s like swallowing poison and hoping someone else will die. And so I don’t do it.”

— Sen. JD VANCE, On whether he regrets his “childless cat lady” comment, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I have a lot of regrets, Kristen, but making a joke three years ago is not at the top ten of the list.”

— Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) on Vance’s assertion that Trump would veto an abortion bill, on “Meet the Press”: “American women are not stupid, and we are not going to trust the futures of our daughters and granddaughters to two men who have openly bragged about blocking access to abortion for women all across this country.”

On whether the U.S. should condition aid to Israel: “American law already says that we give military aid only to those who are in compliance with international law. What Benjamin Netanyahu has done in creating a humanitarian disaster in Gaza raises questions about compliance with international law.”

— Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) on Harris’ Israel aid policy, on ABC’s “This Week”: “They are still working through their policies. But I think at the end of the day, I hope very much that the conclusion that will be reached is that Netanyahu and his right-wing extremist government, which has received tens of billions of dollars of aid from the U.S., should not continue to receive that aid unless there is a radical change in their policies, to the people, to the Palestinian people in Gaza and in the West Bank, by the way.”

— Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on Trump saying he doesn’t care what Graham has to say, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “Me and him are good. We're going to be together. … We're going to try to have a unity event in Georgia to bring this whole party together. I will be by his side in this election. I am proud of what he did as our president.”

On Trump’s abortion position: “He's not going to win or lose this election based on the abortion issue.”

On whether Trump should attend the “J6 Awards Gala” at his New Jersey golf club: “I will leave it up to him as to what causes to support. I am supporting him because my country, your country, our country is hurting. And he offers policy changes that we desperately need.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will travel from Santa Ynez, California, to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

Harris has nothing on her public schedule.

 

CHECK OUT WHAT YOU MISSED IN CHICAGO!

On Thursday, POLITICO and Bayer convened four conversations at the CNN-POLITICO Grill at the DNC. The program featured Bayer’s Senior Vice President, Head of Crop Science and Sustainability Communications, Jessica Christiansen, as well as conversations with Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL), and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) about agriculture, food policy and how these issues will impact the November election. CATCH UP HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

Kamala Harris speaks during the Democratic National Convention.

Kamala Harris' price gouging plan is putting some Democratic lawmakers in a tight spot. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

1. DEMS’ HARRIS HEARTBURN: Feeling the angst against Harris’ grocery price-gouging plan, some Democratic lawmakers are “delivering a quiet message to anxious allies: Don’t worry about the details. It’s never going to pass Congress,” Meredith Lee Hill and Adam Cancryn report. The most tangible piece of Harris’ mostly vague plan is a call for Congress to pass the first-ever federal ban on price gouging in the food and grocery sectors.

“But such a bill has no chance of passing Congress anytime soon, even if Democrats win the White House and Congress this November, according to six Democratic lawmakers and five Democratic aides who were granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly. … Rather, it’s a messaging tactic — a way to show that she understands food prices remain an economic burden for many Americans and to redirect voters’ anger about inflation to corporations, in a way that progressives in particular have cheered.”

Meanwhile, as Trump continually lambasts the plan, “Republican state officials across the country have embraced the idea of capping excessive prices for years,” Michael Stratford writes. “GOP state attorneys general, as well as many of their Democratic counterparts, have moved to stop companies from charging what they view as exorbitant increases in the cost of some goods in certain circumstances.”

2. BETTING THE HOUSE: Democrats are making housing affordability — once seen as a major vulnerability — a central piece of their strategy to win in November. But the gambit carries a big risk: It’s likely to spark a host of fights across blue cities and states, Jordan Wolman and Melanie Mason report from Chicago. The shift in strategy comes in response to voter outrage over the crunch of housing supply and the rising costs of homes and rents.

Last week at the convention, Dem leaders built on existing momentum in both red and blue states and called for an overhaul of local zoning laws that act as barriers to new and cheaper housing. “But the federal government has limited influence on these rules. Instead, if the pleas work, it would send cheering mayors, city councilmembers and party chairs back to their hometowns to pick battles with Democrat-run planning boards and Legislatures in major metro areas and small towns alike in an effort to fulfill Harris’ pledge to build three million new homes.”

3. GREEN WITH ENVY?: Amid an intensifying debate within the Republican Party over how to respond to climate change, Republicans plotting the post-election policy agenda have a tricky decision to make: What to do with Dems’ marquee 2022 climate law, now that the clean energy tax breaks included in it are drawing growing GOP support?

“No Republican voted for the Inflation Reduction Act two years ago, and conservatives consistently charge that its hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for electric vehicles, wind, solar and other technologies will drive up prices, distort the markets and benefit China,” Emma Dumain and Kelsey Brugger write. “But the law is undeniably bringing federal money, private investments and jobs into communities around the country overwhelmingly represented by Republicans — and the once-united opposition is fraying.”

4. IMMIGRATION FILES: “Biden’s Asylum Restrictions Are Working as Predicted, and as Warned,” by NYT’s Hamed Aleaziz: “The number of people asking for haven in the United States has dropped by 50 percent since June, according to new figures from the Department of Homeland Security. Border agents are operating more efficiently, administration officials say, and many of the hot spots along the border, like Eagle Pass, Texas, have calmed.

“The numbers could provide a powerful counternarrative to what has been one of the Biden administration’s biggest political vulnerabilities, particularly as Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, tries to fend off Republican attacks. But migrant activists say Mr. Biden’s executive order is weeding out far too many people, including those who should be allowed to have their cases heard, even under the new rules.”

 

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5. A TALE OF TWO SURROGATES …

“21 Minutes in the Buttigieg Bubble,” by The Atlantic’s Mark Leibovich: “Officially, [PETE] BUTTIGIEG is the United States secretary of transportation. But his far more prominent role of late has been as a sound-bite and surrogate sensation for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (and at the expense of Donald Trump and J. D. Vance). According to his staff, Buttigieg plowed through more than 30 TV, radio, and TikTok appearances over the course of 96 hours in Chicago, along with 30 speeches to constituent groups (veterans, mayors, students), 12 sets of remarks to delegation breakfasts, dozens of scheduled and unscheduled drop-bys and meet and greets with various dignitaries and appendages, and one prime-time address on Wednesday night.”

“Gavin Newsom navigates new role behind Kamala Harris,” by LA Times’ Taryn Luna in Chicago: “[GAVIN] NEWSOM’s presence in Chicago was unusually muted for the liberal leader of the most populous state in America as he tried to navigate his place behind Harris and his unclear role in supporting her campaign. … In an interview in the arena Thursday, Newsom said he’s ready to jump in but described himself as ‘a solution in many ways in search of a problem,’ given the way surrogates, donors, fundraisers and volunteers have lit up for the Harris campaign in the last three weeks. He’s waiting for Harris to give him an assignment, but he’s also mindful of the way San Franciscans and Californians are perceived around the nation and how he could affect her campaign.”

6. JUST VANCE: “How JD Vance Found His Way to the Catholic Church,” by NYT’s Elizabeth Dias: “Much has been made of Mr. Vance’s very public conversion to Trumpism, and his seemingly mutable political stances. But his quieter, private conversion to Catholicism, occurring over a similar stretch of years, reveals some core values at the heart of his personal and political philosophy and their potential impact on the country. Becoming Catholic for Mr. Vance, who was loosely raised as an evangelical, was a practical way to counter what he saw as elite values, especially secularism. He was drawn not just to the church’s theological ideas, but also to its teachings on family and social order and its desire to instill virtue in modern society.”

7. THE WHEELS ON THE BUS: “How busing, school desegregation shaped Kamala Harris’s views of race,” by WaPo’s Laura Meckler: “Children who participated in the program were forever changed, according to interviews with about a dozen people who, like Harris, were bused in Berkeley in the early to mid-1970s. The period shaped their worldviews, and some of Harris’s childhood friends and classmates say the program was the reason they have felt comfortable in diverse environments ever since. The desegregation program also was hard for many students, with some describing fights and bullying between students of different races and economic statuses and schools that did little to help them work through the tensions.”

Related read: “As Kamala Harris Claims Oakland, Berkeley Forgives,” by NYT’s Heather Knight and Alexandra Berzon

8. BREAKING THE WALL: “Trump event at wall Obama built highlights an unkept promise,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Marianne LeVine and Erin Patrick O'Connor in Montezuma Pass, Arizona: “This spot along the U.S.-Mexico border, quickly accessible from nearby Sierra Vista, has often served as the backdrop for Republican photo ops. The scenery here did not attest to the fearsome migrant caravans or invasions of military-age foreign men that Trump often describes. … His vow to finish the wall, now formalized in the Republican Party platform, highlights the uncomfortable fact that he did not finish it in his first term, and Mexico did not pay for it, as he once promised it would.”

9. TO THE LETTERS: There is an emerging political force that Harris’ candidacy is coaxing out: “Members of AKA and the rest of the elite Black fraternities and sororities known as the Divine Nine, who are determined to usher one of their own into the White House,” Brakkton Booker writes from Chicago. Harris joined the sorority during her time at Howard University in the 1980s and maintains deep connections with it to this day. And while the Divine Nine have a long history of civic engagement and long-standing voter outreach programs, “this is the first time they’re working toward a common electoral goal.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

John Fetterman’s car crash seems to be escalating.

JD Vance’s security team is closing the Judy Lowe Park near his Alexandria home.

OUT AND ABOUT — Kathy “Coach” Kemper hosted a celebration for Sam Feist, toasting his new role as CEO at C-SPAN and leadership in the Institute for Education, at the Congressional Country Club on the Great Lawn yesterday. SPOTTED: Mark Bailen, R. David Edelman, Joanne Ke Edelman, Danielle Feist, Alan Fleischmann, Peter Kiley, Susan Kiley, Slovenian Ambassador Iztok Mirosic, FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel, Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer and Dafna Tapiero.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) (6-0) … Michael Cohen Elsa WalshTom SquitieriZach CikanekSara SendekNeal RothschildMike BurnsJeff Choudhry … POLITICO’s Gary Fineout and Christian Oliver Amanda FarnanDave HoppeChris Kaumo of Synchronicity Strategies … PwC’s Michael O’BrienDaniel Barash of SKDK … NBC’s Monica Alba Mary Monica Palmer … former Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-N.J.) … Jamie Jackson … former Reps. Katie Hill (D-Calif.), Susan Brooks (R-Ind.), Elizabeth Esty (D-Conn.), John Faso (R-N.Y.) and Ron Barber (D-Ariz.) … Jack Coogan … Eli Lilly’s Antoinette Forbes ... Beth Burke … former Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal John Lin of House Energy and Commerce … Will Stiers of Rep. Mike Rogers’ (R-Ala.) office … Ben Dietderich of Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R-Alaska) office … Avery Jaffe … Siemens’ Ryan Dalton Ashley Inman Leigh ClaffeyBriana Luster

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