| | | | |  | | By Kimberly Leonard and Kierra Frazier | Good morning and welcome to Tuesday. Gov. Ron DeSantis will soon have a glimpse into how much money he and the new Legislature will be able to work with during his penultimate year in office. State economists will meet with the governor’s budget staff and House and Senate aides tomorrow to draw up forecasts for Florida’s tax revenues. It’ll give lawmakers an idea of how much they’ll be able to budget for everything from health care to education and corrections ahead of the next legislative session, which starts on March 4. It’ll also give the public insight into how Florida’s economy is doing, giving either side of the political debate something to talk about heading into the November elections in which Democrats are trying to break the supermajority and Republicans just notched a 1-million voter registration advantage. Here are five things to watch in Wednesday’s meeting: How much will talk of a recession dominate? State experts factor this question into their revenue estimates, given that a recession would reduce consumer spending. It seems especially central this week given the recent stock market bitternessbor Department jobs report showing an unexpected rise in unemployment. A weakening economy is sure to be used against the White House and probably by Republicans all the way down the ballot who are looking to draw a contrast with Democrats. In Florida, concerns about a recession may tamp down plans for big spending projects. It’ll also affect DeSantis’ budget request. How’s tourism going? Florida is a great place to vacation, which helps bring outside dollars into the state via sales taxes. But spending on leisure often goes out the window during an economic downturn. There’s mixed news for Florida on that so far. The Walt Disney Co. said in a recent earnings call that its parks were seeing less demand because of high costs. But the state is also going to see the opening of a new park at crosstown rival Universal Orlando Resort next year. Gambling revenues are another area lawmakers can look to for filling state coffers. How large will the state’s surplus be? Extra cash on hand can help the state pay for popular programs like sales tax holidays and toll refunds. But during the fiscal year ahead — just like last year — Florida won’t have the same influx of federal cash in the form of pandemic aid that they had a couple of years ago that boosted the state’s bottom line. How will experts assess Florida’s housing market? It’s no secret that a growing number of Floridians are finding it too expensive to live here, given the influx of new residents that have contributed to high listing prices. Then there’s the unsustainable costs of property insurance. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently opened the door to reducing the interest rate in September, which will lower people’s mortgage payments and cause more houses to hit the market. How do storms factor into the projections? Hurricane Debby has been the only storm to hit Florida so far, and its overall economic impact is expected to be mild. But Florida is less than halfway through hurricane season, and climate experts have already predicted this will be one of the worst storm seasons on record. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget in the campaign reporting that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
| | | | DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | |  | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | IN-STATE ABORTIONS DECREASE — “Abortion numbers in Florida down since 6-week ban took effect May 1,” reports News Service of Florida’s Jim Saunders. “The data, posted on the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration website, showed 40,499 abortions reported this year as of Aug. 1. That was up from a total of 36,221 reported at the beginning of July and 32,081 reported at the beginning of June … But the July 1 and Aug. 1 reports offer a two-month window showing reduced numbers of abortions.” PSC SEAT — The Public Service Commission nominating council agreed during a meeting Monday to interview on Aug. 30 all five applicants for the commission seat now held by Chair Mike LaRosa, who is seeking a second term. The council must nominate at least three candidates to Gov. Ron DeSantis for an appointment. The commission agreed to meet for the interviews at Florida Polytechnic University, located in Lakeland. — Bruce Ritchie ‘IT DOESN’T HAVE TO BE LIKE THIS’ — “‘Very disturbing’: Florida teens get longer prison sentences than adults,” reports Miami Herald’s Shirsho Dasgupta. “Children tried as adults were sentenced to a little more than three years in prison on average for third-degree felonies — around 50 percent longer than the average sentence given to adults for the same class of offense … Overall, a child tried as an adult was sentenced to a little more than five years for a felony charge while an adult received around three-and-a-half years. These trends held even after the Herald adjusted for the most extreme sentences that could skew the figures.” TORN — “DeSantis pressured to call for special session to change new condo law,” reports The Floridian’s Javier Manjarres. “While it appears as if most lawmakers support changes in the condo law, there are those who do not, including State Senator Jason Pizzo … ‘Where condos should’ve been collecting 50-70 cents per sq ft over the past decade, they continued to waive reserves, artificially suppress association fees, and did so at the expense of current owners,’ said Pizzo. ‘We’ve already pushed back the timeline requirements once, and the focus should be financing, not pretending critical maintenance issues exist in a vacuum — buildings are not static, and the safety of people’s lives is more important than the tough love the legislature has enacted.’” APPEAL DENIED — “Death penalty appeal rejected in murder of 75-year-old Florida woman,” reports News Service of Florida. “A federal appeals court Monday rejected arguments for a Florida inmate who was sentenced to death in the murder of a 75-year-old Panhandle woman while he was on a crack-cocaine binge. A three-judge panel of the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals turned down a challenge to the death sentence imposed against Jesse Guardado, who murdered Jackie Malone in 2004 in a secluded area of Walton County home before stealing money and other items.” FLORIDA’S POPULARITY — “People making $200,000 or more are flocking to these 10 states: Florida is No. 1,” by CNBC’s Jade Thomas. “Florida had the biggest net gain of high-earning households, according to a recent SmartAsset study. SmartAsset analyzed the latest available IRS data from the 2021-2022 tax year. Using $200,000 of adjusted gross income as a threshold, the study examined the number of high-income households moving into and out of each state to determine the net inflow. Texas came in second in terms of net inflow, followed by North and South Carolina and Arizona.”
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | SPENDING SURGE — “Sasse’s spending spree: Former UF president channeled millions to GOP allies, secretive contracts,” reports The Independent Florida Alligator’s Garrett Shanley. “[Ben] Sasse ballooned spending under the president’s office to $17.3 million in his first year in office — up from $5.6 million in former UF President Kent Fuchs’ last year, according to publicly available administrative budget data. A majority of the spending surge was driven by lucrative contracts with big-name consulting firms and high-salaried, remote positions for Sasse’s former U.S. Senate staff and Republican officials.”
| | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | | | 
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken at 4:30 p.m. EDT and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Ernesto over the Atlantic Ocean and moving west-northwest toward the Lesser Antilles, Monday, Aug. 12, 2024. | NOAA via AP | LATEST STORM — “Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, churns across waters toward Caribbean islands,” reports USA Today’s Christopher Cann and Doyle Rice. “The season's latest tropical storm formed Monday as it churned across open waters toward the Caribbean islands, where it's expected to bring heavy rain and cause flash floods and possible mudslides before lashing the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Forecasters anticipate the mainland U.S. will largely be spared from the storm, a welcomed relief as residents across the eastern U.S. recover from former hurricane and tropical storm Debby.”
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | SHAKING THINGS UP — “Latest Harris-Trump poll highlights danger for former president in Florida,” reports Zac Anderson of USA Today. “The red wave that washed over Florida in recent years might not be as large as it once seemed, if a new presidential survey is any indication. Vice President Kamala Harris is within ‘striking distance’ of former President Donald Trump in Florida, according to the pollster behind a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University survey of 500 registered voters released Tuesday. Trump leads Harris by five percentage points in the survey, but that’s closer than other recent polls and much less than Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 19-point blowout in 2022.” HITTING THE AIRWAVES — “Florida GOP boosts hunting and fishing amendment,” reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie. “The Republican Party of Florida is up with a new television ad boosting a ballot proposal to place a right to hunt and fish in the state Constitution, the first broadcast ad in the fight over the amendment. Party Chair Evan Power told POLITICO on Monday the new spot began airing on Saturday in some regional TV markets, and is the start of a campaign from the party dealing with constitutional amendments.” AIMING TO UNSEAT SCOTT — “Debbie Mucarsel-Powell on the economy, taxes, insurance and abortion,” reports WUSF’s Gabriella Pinos. “‘I can tell you that people here have been paying taxes for too long, and part of the problem is that we haven't had the appropriate oversight of how we're spending that money,’ she said, pointing out how state taxes haven’t been used properly for things such as funding public schools and universities.” — “Debbie Mucarsel-Powell says she's challenging Republican Sen. Rick Scott because Florida has become unaffordable,” reports NBC News’ Carmen Sesin. DESANTIS’ INFLUENCE — “In Florida politics, DeSantis endorsements show clout despite fizzled presidential bid,” reports Tallahassee Democrat’s Gray Rohrer. “The last two years of a term-limited governor’s tenure can be seen as a lame duck period, but the string of endorsements suggest his brand is still buoyant within the Florida GOP despite his underwhelming showing in the presidential primary race … The influence DeSantis wields — in the Legislature, on school boards, in the courts — could linger well after he leaves office, possibly helping DeSantis mount another run for president in 2028.” ECHOING DEM TALKING POINTS — “The Lincoln Project releases ad comparing Trump to Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro,” reports Antonio Fins of the Palm Beach Post. “The anti-Trump Lincoln Project on Monday dropped an ad, which is running on television and digital platforms, comparing former president Donald Trump to Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. And vocal Trump critic George Conway’s Anti-Psychopath PAC said last week it is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on billboards near the former president's Florida properties that call him a cheat.” HEATED COUNTY SHERIFF RACE — “Here’s what to know about the contentious, money-fueled primary races for Palm Beach County sheriff,” by South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Shira Moolten. “The primary election is Aug. 20, less than two weeks away, and is rife with controversy. That includes accusations over a union’s involvement, a candidate’s alleged lies about being a Vietnam veteran, and a hot mic incident in which one candidate cursed out the other when he thought he was muted during a forum on Zoom.” FOUR YEAR OLD BEEF — “Citing ‘obsession and vendetta,’ Angie Nixon blames Kim Daniels for fake Corrine Brown ‘Quick Picks,’” reports Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski. “‘Former U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown is suing a state legislator for erroneously pushing an endorsement via published ‘Quick Picks,’ but apparently that claim is misplaced. State Rep. Angie Nixon says one of her colleagues in the Duval County legislative delegation is to blame, and that the beef is four years old now.”
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Former President Donald Trump, left, appears at a rally in Minden, Nev., on Oct. 8, 2022. Billionaire businessman Elon Musk, right, smiles in Wilmington, Del., on July 12, 2021. | AP | DEJA VU — Former President Donald Trump’s interview on X last night went about as well as Gov. Ron DeSantis’ decision to launch his unsuccessful presidential campaign on the platform. The interview started about 45 minutes late in what X CEO Elon Musk blamed on an outside "distributed denial of service" attack, despite the rest of the site working fine. Trump’s supporters savaged the governor over his glitch-filled interview back in May 2023, with Trump himself predicting that the “disaster” launch would foretell a “disaster” of a campaign. TRUMP WARNS HE’LL SUE — Trump’s legal team warned the Department of Justice in a letter that he planned to sue the agency over the 2022 search Mar-a-Lago, where FBI agents retrieved hundreds of classified documents. The federal judge in the case, Aileen Cannon, dismissed the case last month but during the proceedings she denied Trump’s request for what’s known as a "Franks hearing" on the raid, which would have resulted in certain evidence being excluded from a trial. Trump plans to sue for $100 million in damages, claiming "clear intent to engage in political persecution,” Fox News was first to report. Campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said Trump would keep fighting the legal cases against him and called the search “illegal and unconstitutional.” The DOJ has up to six months to respond and if the parties can’t come to a resolution then the case will move to federal court in the Southern District of Florida. The lawsuit is a stretch, because a judge approved the search on the basis of probable cause to believe a crime was committed, and a grand jury later made the same finding, former U.S. attorney Barbara McQuade said on X. The DOJ will appeal the decision dismissing the case and is facing a filing deadline for a brief about it at the end of this month.
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