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| | Donald Trump rode isolationist policies to victory in 2016, ushering in a new era of economic protectionism that was eventually embraced by President Joe Biden and key Democrats. The economy looks a lot different in 2024. Economists and Wall Street analysts have warned for months that Trump’s plan to impose universal tariffs of up to 20 percent on imports — with levies of up to 60 percent or more on Chinese goods — would drive consumer prices even higher and bludgeon economic growth. And while tough stances on trade helped Trump chip away at the Democratic Party’s historical advantages among rank-and-file union members, Vice President Kamala Harris is betting that those voters are now more focused on the size of their credit card bills than the size of the U.S. trade deficit. “To call for a 10-20 percent tariff on everything that’s imported? It is a cost-of-living issue,” longtime Democratic strategist Bob Shrum told MM. Hence, her latest attack: “At this moment when everyday prices are too high, he will make them even higher,” Harris said at a campaign rally in North Carolina last week, citing a Center for American Politics estimate that Trump’s policies would cost families an average of $3,900 annually. Those tariffs would represent “a national sales tax on everyday products and basic necessities that we import from other countries,” she added. The challenge Harris will face is if she can keep up those attacks without hurting her attempts to shore up support with organized labor groups that have pushed the party toward more protectionist policies. On one hand, going after Trump’s universal tariff policy shouldn’t hinder those efforts, Seth Harris, the former deputy director of Biden’s National Economic Council, told MM. Union members are just as angry about high prices as they are about unfair trade policies. But it is “a subtle argument that requires drawing a distinction,” he added. “Sometimes tariffs are the right thing — and a good thing — as part of a comprehensive industrial policy. And sometimes tariffs serve no valid purpose and are destructive of the American economy.” Union voters will be critical to the Democratic ticket’s chances in must-win Rust Belt states. Biden’s own stances on trade — including his decision to maintain Trump-era tariffs on Chinese imports — were influenced by his deference to lawmakers like Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. Key union groups like the AFL-CIO federation, the Service Employees International Union, North America’s Building Trades Unions and the United Auto Workers have already endorsed Harris. But — as Holly Otterbein and Brittany Gibson reported over the weekend — her ultimate success will depend on matching Biden’s gains with the rank-and-file. For years, many union leaders were frustrated by how some Democratic leaders embraced neoliberal policies that called for free trade with limited restrictions, Harris said. Biden was a break from that, he added. The vice president “is more Biden-esque than she is neoliberal,” Harris said. “The challenge for her now is to make that case — to renew that case — that President Biden made.” IT’S TUESDAY — It’s a busy week, but it’s a little slower for those of us who avoided the trek to Chicago. Have tips? Want to meet up in NYC? Email me at ssutton@politico.com.
| | | | DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | We have a ton of programming all week from Chicago at the CNN-POLITICO Grill. Today’s includes interviews with Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), as well as Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Democratic strategist Anita Dunn. Frequent MM host Victoria Guida will close out the day’s programming with an interview with Colorado Gov. Jared Polis. The SEC meets at 10 a.m. … Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will hold a fireside chat at the regional bank’s hybrid "Innovating for Inclusion" forum at 1:35 p.m. … Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in a cybersecurity discussion at a Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee/Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council meeting at 2:45 p.m.
| | | | A message from American Land Title Association: A home is the biggest purchase most families will make. Title insurance protects against ownership disputes or defects with a property title, and works to keep families in their homes if they arise. Learn more about title insurance. | | | | | Denouement — Biden took the stage at 11:30 p.m. to pass the torch to Harris. In a fiery, 45-minute address, the president defended his administration’s record on the economy, infrastructure, industrial and clean energy policy while casting the race as a battle for the soul of Democracy. — “We’ve gone from an economic crisis to the strongest economy in the world,” he said, citing stock market gains, wage growth, and small business formation as evidence of its resilience. Inflation has fallen. “We all know we have more to go, but we’re going in the right direction,” he said. — Harris and Walz will continue to “take on corporate greed and bring down the cost of food,” he said – a nod to the vice president’s economic policy rollout late last week. — But he doubled and tripled down on his longstanding contention that Trump represents an existential threat to the rule of law, reminding voters that this will be the first election since the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. “Democracy has prevailed, democracy has delivered and now democracy must be preserved,” he said. “We’re facing an inflection point, one of those rare moments in history, where the decisions we make now will determine the fate of our country and our world for decades to come.” Big Trouble in Big Crypto — Huge scoop from Eleanor Mueller: Venture capitalist and Democratic megadonor Ron Conway is pulling support from a network of the cryptocurrency industry’s most powerful super PACs after they announced they would spend $12 million to unseat Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) without informing him. — The goods: "$12M to [Sherrod] Brown’s opponent at a time when Sen Schumer is doing his best to get a bill passed in the Senate in the lame duck,” Conway wrote in an email Wednesday to dozens of other associated donors, excerpts of which POLITICO viewed Monday. “You all know that is ‘slap in the face’ to Sen Schumer And a ‘slap in the face’ to me when you know I'm meeting him in SF tomorrow. How short-sighted and stupid can you possibly be?” Harris backs Biden’s corporate tax hike —Harris plans to push for an increase in the US corporate tax rate to 28 percent if she wins in November. Her campaign on Monday said she would “stick by a proposal put forward by President Joe Biden in recent years to bring the corporate tax rate up from 21 percent to 28 percent,” the FT’s James Politi reports. Last days of the honeymoon? — The founder of the largest outside spending group backing Harris warned that their internal polling shows the race is much tighter than what public surveys suggest. “Our numbers are much less rosy than what you're seeing in the public,” Chauncey McLean, the president of the Future Forward Super PAC, told Reuters.
| | | | A message from American Land Title Association:   | | | | | ICYMI: Basel III endgame uncertain — Michael Stratford and Victoria Guida report that federal regulators are at odds over how to advance a sweeping plan to require the nation’s biggest banks to strengthen their financial resilience — and they’re running up against a presidential election that could jeopardize the entire project. “The exact procedural path forward is clear as mud,” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG. Look, Jay, I’m just spitballing here, but… — Trump downplayed his earlier claims that the president should have a say in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. “I think it’s fine for a president to talk. It doesn’t mean that they have to listen,” he told Bloomberg’s Mark Niquette on Monday. He also said he “jawboned” over interest rates with Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his term. “It might have had an effect, it might not have had an effect.” Worrying — A growing number of Americans are worried they’ll lose their jobs, The NYT’s Jeanna Smialek reports. The New York Fed’s survey of labor expectations found that the expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4 percent on average — the highest since 2014. Pushback on the price gouging pushback — “About 60 percent of the states have already enacted price-gouging laws, including the red states of Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas,” Jeff Sovern, a consumer law professor at the University of Maryland School of Law, emailed your MM host on Monday morning. The Washington Post editorial board labeled Harris’ proposal a gimmick, but if those “laws are indeed a gimmick … they are a gimmick that appears to enjoy bipartisan support.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | Another FTC battle — The grocery chain Kroger has sued the Federal Trade Commission, claiming that the agency’s in-house tribunal is illegal, Reuters reports. The FTC has sued to temporarily block Kroger’s acquisition of Albertson’s. Icahn — Billionaire Carl Icahn agreed to pay $500,000 to settle Securities and Exchange Commission charges that he used his company stock to stake personal loans, Declan Harty reports. His company, Icahn Enterprises, will pay $1.5 million as well. More cooperation — Michael Stratford reports that Treasury and China’s central bank have come to an agreement to strengthen their coordination on global financial stability issues. The institutions exchanged letters to boost information-sharing between the two countries during future periods of “financial stress.”
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