| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  This photograph taken on August 16, 2024, shows a damaged statue of Vladimir Lenin in the Ukrainian-controlled Russian town of Sudzha. Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region earlier this month is rejuvenating Kyiv’s war efforts and spotlighting Russia’s shortcomings. | Yan Dobronosov/AFP via Getty Images | | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The coming weeks could be consequential for both Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s and the Biden administration’s military strategies toward Ukraine. Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region earlier this month is rejuvenating Kyiv’s war efforts and spotlighting Russia’s shortcomings, including critical weaknesses in its military, its shortage of battle-ready reserves and devastating intelligence failures. But Ukrainians aren’t celebrating a major win yet. “We try to not put the cart before the horse yet,” a person close to President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY's office told NatSec Daily, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “It's a dangerous situation not only for Russians but also for us. It’s a high-stakes game.” Ukraine’s military plans going forward are being closely held, but there’s a sense in Kyiv that Moscow’s forces will keep advancing in the east and that “we’ll lose people and territories even while holding some of the Russian territory,” the person added. In the short term, the Kursk incursion is boosting morale among Ukrainian troops following what has been an otherwise grim year, during which many Western observers largely wrote off Kyiv’s chances for turning the tide of the war. Now, Ukraine believes it’s in a better negotiating position for peace talks due to the offensive and its increased number of prisoners of war. Ukraine could make some small advances in other parts of Russia like Belgorod, the person said: “In Ukraine, we try to take it when we see we can, not just when we need.” VOLODYMYR OMELYAN, Ukraine’s former infrastructure minister who now serves in the country’s army, texted NatSec Daily from the frontlines near Kupyansk, emphasizing that the Kursk incursion isn’t over yet and that both sides are exhausted. “Things are tough here,” Omelyan said. “Zelensky believes that we get enough supplies from the West to capture and hold more Russian territory. There will be more of our strikes of drones and missiles.” Ukraine has momentum. This morning, Russian air defenses shot down several drones over Moscow and its outskirts, part of a fleet of dozens that attacked several regions in Russia (Kyiv didn’t directly claim responsibility). And Ukraine’s military said today that it hit pontoon bridges and engineering equipment in the Kursk region using U.S.-made HIMARS rocket systems. The National Security Council declined to comment on the matter. The Kremlin leader said he’ll respond decisively to the incursion, but Moscow so far has been focused on containing rather than reversing the incursion. The Biden administration, meanwhile, is facing increasing pressure to lift restrictions on long-range weapons, which Kyiv’s leadership has been begging for since the early days of the war. Zelenskyy’s moves are becoming bolder and more aggressive, paired with his recent inflammatory rhetoric bashing the West for “the whole naïve, illusory concept of so-called red lines regarding Russia.” The Biden administration doesn’t “indulge in the hypothetical about red lines,” an administration official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told NatSec Daily. And don’t expect the White House to publicly signal a change in policy about Ukraine’s long-range weapons capability: “We're not considering allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS to fire into Russia,” the official said. “And I think there's been a misconception there as well about whether or not ATACMS would help Ukraine defend against the challenges posed by Russian glide bombs.”
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The F-35 is the most significant defense program in the U.S., powering small and large businesses and creating high-paying, high-tech and manufacturing jobs for workers in the innovation economy. Learn more. | | | | | ‘MAXIMUM SURPRISE’ FOR ISRAEL: Iran seems to be backing down from its potentially “devastating” attack strike plans against Israel for now, a prospect that has worried the natsec world for weeks. In a statement today, Iran’s mission to the United Nations wrote that any response to Israel’s killing of Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH last month “must be carefully calibrated to avoid any possible adverse impact that could potentially influence a prospective cease-fire,” referring to ongoing talks between negotiators to stop the war in Gaza, The Washington Post’s SUSANNAH GEORGE and LEO SANDS report. A response will come eventually, however, the statement continued: “The timing, conditions, and manner of Iran’s response will be meticulously orchestrated to ensure that it occurs at a moment of maximum surprise.” But the temperature in the region isn’t lowering. Israel and Hezbollah militants exchanged rocket fire across the Lebanese border today, killing one person, The New York Times’ GABBY SOBELMAN and EUAN WARD report. Israel said it hit weapons storage facilities used by Hezbollah, and the militant group responded by aiming for an Israeli military base in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. GETTING A DRAFT GOING: U.S. officials have drafted a list of 60 Venezuelan government officials who could face sanctions related to the electoral crisis in the South American country, per Reuters’ MARIANNA PARRAGA. The list, which includes members of Venezuela’s national electoral council, Supreme Court and counterintelligence police, was drafted by the Treasury Department and submitted to the State Department recently, per Reuters. The sanctions would restrict their travel and that of their family members, and would bar U.S. companies from doing business with them, according to the report. The sanctions murmurs come as the Biden administration and its partners in the region continue to pressure the government of NICOLÁS MADURO to release full electoral results that they argue will prove that the opposition received the most votes. Maduro, who claimed a narrow victory in the country’s July 28 elections, has targeted the country’s opposition movement and cracked down on nationwide protests. CLEARING THE KURSK AIR: The Biden administration is dismissing the Kremlin’s reasoning for issuing a summons to a top U.S. official this week as “propaganda.” On Tuesday, Russia’s foreign ministry summoned STEPHANIE HOLMES, deputy chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Moscow, saying that American reporters illegally entered Kursk and that an American private military company is fighting with Ukraine there. “Obviously, there was no American involvement in helping Ukraine plan for or execute the operation. We have not been involved there. Also, we're not aware of any Americans who are actually fighting in Kursk,” the Biden administration official mentioned above told NatSec Daily. “This seems to be a very clear propaganda effort from the Russian government.” LIBYA ON THE BRINK: Ongoing political instability in Libya could send the country back into civil war, the U.N.’s top official for the North African country warned. As the Associated Press’ EDITH LEDERER reported Tuesday night, U.N. envoy STEPHANIE KHOURY warned the Security Council that conditions in the country have deteriorated “quite rapidly” as rival government forces began making unilateral military moves toward each other and the country’s government in Tripoli faces efforts to unseat the prime minister and central bank chief. Libya has been stuck at a political impasse since December of 2021, when the government in the country’s west refused to hold elections. Meanwhile, a powerful military commander holds considerable power in the country’s east, threatening to splinter the country. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | GOP VETS SLAM WALZ: Fifty Republican members of Congress who served in the military wrote a letter slamming Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ for allegedly lying about the nature of his service as a member of the Army National Guard, our own NATALIE ALLISON reports. The letter, written on official Trump campaign letterhead and released on the eve of Walz’s address to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago tonight, was signed by a wide range of Republicans, including many Trump loyalists. It comes as Republicans have pointed out inaccuracies in the ways that Walz and the Harris campaign have described his military service over the years. “You have violated the trust of our brothers and sisters in arms,” the members wrote. “Their blood, sweat, and sacrifice are the only reason our nation is able to exist. Until you admit you lied to them, there is no way you can be trusted to serve as vice president.” A spokesperson for Walz pointed to a recent statement from Democratic members of Congress supporting Walz as a “steadfast advocate for veterans and military families,” as well as an open letter released by the campaign last week featuring signatures of 1,000 military veterans. REPUBLICAN TAIWAN ROW: China watchers got a glimpse into the dueling visions of how a second DONALD TRUMP administration might approach Taiwan this morning. It all started when former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations NIKKI HALEY issued a flurry of posts today arguing that the U.S. should enter into a free trade agreement with Taipei and better embrace Taiwan from a security and diplomatic perspective. But former deputy assistant secretary of Defense ELBRIDGE COLBY, an advocate for the foreign policy concept of “pivot to Asia” and a contender to join a second Trump administration, pushed back, saying that while the U.S. must continue to devote military resources to Asia, it also needs to “avoid unnecessarily poking Beijing on a ‘core issue’ for them.” He added in a second post: “The worst approach is upping the political temperature with Beijing with loud and symbolic measures vis a vis Taiwan while *not* prioritizing and enabling Taiwan’s laggardly defense efforts. That’s a recipe for war and defeat.” The exchange comes as Republicans have emphasized that a second Trump presidency would see the U.S. continue to support Taiwan in the face of aggression from China. But Colby’s comments suggest that support for Taiwan may be more measured and subtle if a Trump administration prioritizes avoiding conflict with China. Trump campaign spokesperson STEVEN CHEUNG told NatSec Daily that “official policy will be unveiled by either President Trump or his campaign, nobody else.”
| | TELEGRAM TROUBLES: Russian Telegram and Whatsapp users had difficulty accessing the apps today due to a cyberattack, Moscow’s communications monitoring service announced, per Reuters’ LUCY PAPACHRISTOU. Access was back soon after, the service said, adding that sites including Wikipedia, Skype and Discord were also affected. SWISS (CYBER) MOVEMENTS: Neutral Switzerland is joining forces with the European Union on two major cyber defense initiatives, per Reuters’ JOHN REVILL and DAVE GRAHAM. The country’s Federal Council said it would join the European Union’s "Cyber Ranges Federation,” part of its permanent structured cooperation program. It follows Bern’s earlier announcement it would join the European Cyber Security Organization as it strengthens its defenses against hackers and online attacks.
| | | BEIJING’S NUCLEAR REACTION: Beijing is not thrilled with reports that the U.S. national nuclear strategy is reportedly being changed to better respond to China’s growing nuclear arsenal. Speaking at a Foreign Ministry press conference this morning, spokesperson MAO NING said China is “gravely concerned” about the reports, adding that “we have no intention to engage in any form of arms race with other countries.” She also pointed the finger at the U.S., arguing that “the U.S. sits on the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world” and “it is the U.S. who is the primary source of nuclear threat and strategic risks in the world.” Mao’s comments come as The NYT’s DAVID SANGER reported Tuesday evening that President JOE BIDEN approved a new national nuclear strategy that refocuses U.S. policy towards addressing China’s buildup of nuclear warheads. The completion of the highly classified document was not publicly advertised by the White House, but officials have alluded to the new strategy and that it aims “to deter Russia, the PRC and North Korea simultaneously.” China’s nuclear arsenal is expected to increase to 1,500 warheads by 2035, alarming U.S. officials who are also worried about Beijing’s increased ties with Moscow.
| | RUSSIAN CHIPS HEARING: A Senate panel plans to hold a hearing next month on the use of U.S. semiconductor chips in Russian weapons systems against Ukraine, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scoop. It’s a battlefield issue that was underscored during a recent trip Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.), who told our colleagues about the hearing, made to Ukraine. The hearing, set for when Congress returns in September from its summer recess, will look at how Russia is getting around sanctions and export controls aimed at choking off supplies to its military and tech sector. “All of this stuff is coming from the United States now. The question is, how are the export controls and sanctions failing?” Blumenthal told our colleagues. “We're investigating through the [Senate Homeland Security] Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations how that's happening.”
| | TALIBAN BANS BENNETT: The Taliban announced today it won’t allow the United Nations’ top envoy to Afghanistan to enter the country, accusing him of spreading “propaganda.” ABDUL QAHAR BALKHI, a spokesperson for the Taliban’s foreign ministry, claimed that U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Afghanistan RICHARD BENNETT “had been unable to acquire a travel visa to Afghanistan,” per Reuters’ MOHAMMAD YUNUS YAWAR and CHARLOTTE GREENFIELD. Balkhi added: “Even after repeatedly requesting Mr. Bennett to adhere to professionalism during work ... it was decided that ... his reports are based on prejudices and anecdotes detrimental to interests of Afghanistan and the Afghan people.” Bennett, who was appointed by the U.N. Human Rights Council in 2022, has visited Afghanistan multiple times to investigate the state of human rights under the jihadist group’s rule and has criticized the Taliban’s policy of preventing women and girls from working and pursuing educational opportunities. ISRAEL’S BANKING HARDBALL: Israeli banks are refusing to take transfers from Palestinian banks in the West Bank, teeing up a potential financial crisis for Palestinians in the occupied territory. As Reuters’ ALI SAWAFTA reports, Palestinian authorities warn the block on transfers of shekels, Israel’s currency, between banks could prevent people in the West Bank from making basic financial transactions for goods and services in the next few days. The Israeli Finance Ministry, led by pro-settler minister BEZALEL SMOTRICH, extended a waiver in June that allows Israeli and Palestinian banks to collaborate, but had no immediate comment to Reuters. PROTEST ARRESTS: Demonstrators outside of the Israeli Consulate less than two miles from the Democratic National Convention in Chicago clashed with Chicago police Tuesday, leading to dozens of arrests, The Associated Press’ SOPHIA TAREEN, JOEY CAPPELLETTI, LEA SKENE and JAKE OFFENHARTZ report.
| | — MEG SPENCER is now chief comms officer for technology and global issues for the British Embassy in D.C. She previously was press secretary for Rep. STENY HOYER (D-Md.).
| | — JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: Biden’s Iraq withdrawal plan is a trap for the next president — SARAH LAZARE, The Nation: As Democrats party, doctors beg the world to listen to Gaza — MATTHEW SPERZEL, DANIEL SHATS and ALEXIS TUREK, Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute: Exploring a PRC short-of-war coercion campaign to seize Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands and possible responses
| | — Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: A discussion on the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's "Vision for the IC Information Environment: An Information Technology Roadmap" Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who has a naïve, illusory concept of her so-called editing. Thanks to our producer, Greg Svirnovskiy, who is whatever the opposite of naïve is. Wise?
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