Races to watch in today’s primary

Aug 20, 2024

Former President Donald Trump arrives at the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections on Aug. 14, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla., to vote early in person in the Florida primary.

Former President (and Florida resident) Donald Trump arrives to vote early on Aug. 14 in West Palm Beach, Fla. | Wilfredo Lee/AP Photo

Good morning and welcome to primary day in Florida.

While the political world is focused on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, it’s the primary contests here that are the biggest election news of the day for Florida.

The races will lay the groundwork for the November general election in a state that has shifted red. Only a handful of House races are expected to be competitive in November: the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has its sights set on two races and the National Republican Campaign Committee is targeting just one district.

At the state legislative level, the Florida Democratic Party got candidates to contest every seat, hoping to chip away at the GOP supermajority.

Former President Donald Trump has also gotten into the mix and restated many of his Florida endorsements over Truth Social last week.

Here are the congressional, legislative and local races to watch:

— FL-Sen: Scott is not only in a race to keep his seat, but also to try to get a promotion to GOP leader. Tuesday’s Democratic primary will decide which politician has a shot at getting in the way of both possibilities. Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is favored in the primary. She’s leading in fundraising and has the support of national Democrats, including President Joe Biden who made his preference known during a campaign stop in Tampa in April when he was still the presumptive presidential nominee.

Mucarsel-Powell has focused on going after Scott rather than on other Democratic opponents, including underdog Stanley Campbell, a tech entrepreneur who has won some union support.

Scott also has focused most of his criticisms on Mucarsel-Powell, though on Tuesday he faces a primary challenge from Republican Keith Gross, an attorney who previously ran as a Democrat in Georgia’s state House.

— FL-01: Trying to unseat Rep. Matt Gaetz is a big part of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s revenge tour, given that the four-term firebrand did lead the charge to get him ousted from his dream job. That’s one of the main reasons it’s become the most expensive congressional primary in Florida this cycle, with more than $5.1 million spent between Gaetz and his opponents. GOP challenger Aaron Dimmock, a Navy veteran, faces long odds in trying to unseat the incumbent. Gaetz has blasted Dimmock as a carpetbagger because he continues to work for the state of Missouri. (Read more from POLITICO’s Gary Fineout.)

— FL-08: This red-leaning district is the only open House seat up for grabs in Florida, after Republican Rep. Bill Posey abruptly announced his resignation right before the qualifying deadline. Mike Haridopolos, the former Florida Senate president who has the backing of Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is the heavy favorite in the Republican primary against businessperson John Hearton. Whoever wins the GOP primary on Tuesday is likely heading to Congress.

— FL-09: Rep. Darren Soto’s seat in Osceola County is the only one the NRCC has targeted this cycle, though it’s likely to be a tough climb unless there’s a major drop in Democratic turnout in November. Tuesday’s primary has three Republicans facing off to try to topple Soto: Jose Castillo, a conservative activist; Thomas Chalifoux, a former school board member; and John Quiñones, a former state representative who was the first Puerto Rican Republican elected to the Florida Legislature.

— FL-13: Five Democrats are facing off for the chance to try to unseat Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, who’s unchallenged on the Republican side, in this top target for the DCCC. Leading the pack in terms of fundraising and endorsements is Whitney Fox, a former transportation official. Another candidate, Sabrina Bousbar, was a senior adviser on health disaster preparedness and response in the Biden administration and would be the first woman Gen Z member of Congress if she were to be elected.

— FL-27: The only other seat the DCCC has targeted in Florida is that of Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a former longtime TV host whose district is highly competitive and majority Hispanic. Opponents have already dinged Salazar over touting certain spending bills she opposed. Two Democrats are in the primary: Lucia Báez-Geller, a progressive Miami-Dade school board member; and Mike Davey, the more centrist former mayor of Key Biscayne.

— SD-7: The race to replace term-limited state Sen. Travis Hutson has produced at least $10 million in ads, reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout. And it’s exposing a rift between the Trump and DeSantis wings of the party. State Rep. Tom Leek is the favorite among state leaders while Trump endorsed David Shoar, a former St. Johns County Sheriff, later in the game.

— SD-15: State Sen. Geraldine Thompson is facing a bitter Democratic primary challenge from former state Sen. Randolph Bracy, with both candidates accusing each other of living outside the district. In another sardonic twist, Bracy’s sister, state Rep. LaVon Bracy Davis, endorsed Thompson.

— SD-25: Three Democrats are vying for the seat in the blue-leaning district state Sen. Vic Torres is departing due to term limits. One of them is his wife, community leader Carmen Torres. Another is state Rep. Kristen Arrington, who also has an elected official spouse. And former Rep. Alan Grayson — who has a ton of name recognition after three terms in the House — entered the race late after dropping a Senate bid and could shake things up.

— HD-13: Incumbent state Rep. Angie Nixon is defending her blue-leaning seat against Democrat Brenda Priestly Jackson, a former Jacksonville city councilmember. Nixon was one of two members of the Legislature to vote in support of an Israeli ceasefire in Gaza last year and also was among members of the Black caucus who staged a sit-in in protest of DeSantis’ redistricting map.

— HD-14: State Democratic Rep. Kimberly Daniels is an anti-abortion Democrat and evangelist who’s facing two primary challengers. Daniels previously lost her district to Nixon in 2020, prior to redistricting, before winning here two years later.

— HD-32: The primary pits Republican state Sen. Debbie Mayfield — who flipped from DeSantis to Trump during the 2024 GOP presidential primary — against former Rep. Dave Weldon. Mayfield has Trump’s endorsement and is shifting chambers because she’s term-limited in her current seat.

— HD-35: Democrats often cite this seat as the reason why they have a shot in Florida. Democratic state Rep. Tom Keen flipped the district’s open seat during a special election in January, while DeSantis was on the presidential campaign trail. Now, the twice DeSantis-endorsed GOP candidate, Erika Booth, wants a rematch. But Booth, a former Osceola school board member, first has to win her primary against real estate agent Laura Gomez McAdams.

— HD-44: The Democratic primary is a 2022 rematch. This time, state House Rep. Rita Harris is the incumbent and Daisy Morales, the former legislator, is trying to get her seat back.

— HD-94: The race is another DeSantis-Trump proxy war, with four Republicans vying to replace term-limited state Rep. Rick Roth. Meg Weinberger — who’s got the nickname “MAGA Meg” — has the endorsement of Trump, Gaetz and other Florida Republicans while DeSantis backed Anthony Aguirre, a health care operations manager and consultant.

— Miami-Dade Mayor: The race is technically nonpartisan but the Democratic incumbent, Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, faces no challenges from the left. If more than 50 percent of voters in the seven-person race support Levine Cava, then she wins the seat outright and skips a two-person runoff in November. She is often talked about as a possible 2026 gubernatorial candidate. Republicans have narrowed the registration gap in the county, although Democrats still have the lead.

— School boards: These races are getting special attention again this cycle, given DeSantis’ decision to endorse 23 candidates who back his education agenda. Not to be outdone, the Florida Democratic Party also endorsed a slate of 11 candidates ahead of the primary. (Read more from POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury.)

Most polls close at 7 p.m.

— Gary Fineout contributed reporting.

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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

REMOVED — “Florida’s official tourism site removes ‘LGBTQ Travel’ section,” reports NBC News’ Matt Lavietes. “The website for the state’s tourism marketing corporation, VisitFlorida.com, had an ‘LGBTQ Travel’ section that no longer exists, according to archived versions of the site viewable on the Internet Archive. The landing page previously featured blog posts and videos related to the state’s gay-friendly beaches, Pride events and LGBTQ road trip ideas.”

TRIPS OUT OF STATE — “Abortion funds say they need more money as Florida's law fuels demand for help,” reports Stephanie Colombini of WUSF. “Getting an abortion can cost hundreds, if not thousands of dollars, especially if travel is involved. Support groups, called abortion funds, can help people pay for care, but demand for that help has soared since Florida's law banning most abortions after six weeks started in May.”

MAGIC KINGDOM — “Parents can still pay for theme park passes using state scholarship money,” reports the Florida Phoenix’s Jay Waagmeester. “Step Up For Students has released its 2024-2025 purchasing guide for recipients of the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship, Personalized Education Program, or Family Empowerment Scholarship, all forms of state education assistance. As in the past, authorized purchases include paddle boards, televisions, and theme park admission for Florida parks such as Disney World, Sea World, Universal, and Legoland.”

— “State auctioning thousands of unclaimed items from bank safety deposit boxes on Saturday,” reports Ron Hurtibise of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

‘QUIET RETURN’ — “As cost of living rises, the ‘unretired’ in South Florida return to work,” reports South Florida Sun Sentinel’s David Lyons. “In Florida and elsewhere around the U.S., many retirees are gravitating toward the same solution: They’re ‘unretiring’ and heading back to work. Fort Lauderdale ranks fourth and Hollywood ninth among U.S. cities with the most working seniors, a national survey has found. And other large metropolitan areas in Florida such as Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville aren’t far behind.”

ON LEAVE — “New College of Florida library dean placed on administrative leave after book disposal,” reports reports the Sarasota’s Herald-Tribune’s Steven Walker. “Her departure comes following increased attention to the college's libraries after hundreds of books could be seen overflowing from a dumpster behind the Jane Bancroft Cook Library Thursday afternoon. With the disposing of library books, New College also disposed of materials from the now-defunct Gender and Diversity Center — a student-run and student-curated library of books on subjects such as the LGBTQ+ community, Black stories and women. These books lived across campus at the Hamilton Center, a student-life and dining building.”

MARY JANE — “String of Haitian migrant landings in Turks & Caicos lead to $2 million marijuana busts,” reports Miami Herald’s Jacqueline Charles. “Police in the Turks and Caicos say that along with detaining 217 undocumented migrants in five separate landings since Friday, they’ve also seized more than $2 million in marijuana. The marijuana was discovered following two separate interceptions of undocumented migrants coming from the northern coast of Haiti on Friday and Saturday. Haiti’s southern coast, because of its proximity to Jamaica, is a popular route in which guns are traded for marijuana and is known as “the guns for ganja” network. But it’s highly unusual for cannabis to be coming out of the northern coast, raising questions about its origin and transportation.”

CAMPAIGN MODE

People hold signs thanking President Joe Biden as Biden speaks during the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago Aug. 19, 2024.

People hold signs thanking President Joe Biden as Biden speaks during the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago Aug. 19, 2024. | APFrancis Chung/POLITICO

TODAY AT DNC — The lineup for the Florida Democratic Party breakfast includes Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Michigan Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, Florida state Sen. Shevrin Jones and Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb.

SEATING CHART — “Where's Florida at the DNC? Far from the stage, close to the bathrooms,” reports Jim DeFede of CBS Miami. “Florida is taking a backseat in this year's presidential election. Literally a backseat. The Florida delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago arrived earlier today to find themselves at the very back of the United Center — as far away from the main stage as you could possibly be. Even South Dakota has better seats than Florida.”

FROM A MEGDADONOR TO MOMS — Conservative parental rights group Moms for Liberty donated to eight school board candidates ahead of Tuesday’s primary elections, with cash from a political committee funded largely by a GOP megadonor.

A key figure in the 2022 elections that helped reshape education in Florida, Moms for Liberty donated to significantly fewer candidates this cycle, including seven of which who were also endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Moms for Liberty sent $250 to eight candidates across the state, spending $2,000 that amounts to the organization’s first significant transaction in two years, campaign finance records show. The group donated to more than 50 candidates in 2022 with help from a $50,000 donation by Publix heiress Julie Fancelli.

This year, the donations were paid for, at least in part, through a $9,000 donation from a Moms for Liberty super PAC. Most of that super PAC’s funding came from Restoration PAC, which is primarily funded by megadonor Richard Uihlein.

— Andrew Atterbury

AT DNC — “Trump isn't in Chicago. But his allies are,” reports POLITICO’s Sarah Ferris. “Two of former President Donald Trump’s top allies in Congress slammed Vice President Kamala Harris as ‘socialist’ in a press conference just blocks away from the Democrats’ convention headquarters, as they try to rip attention away from Harris' coronation in Chicago. At a Trump International Hotel ballroom, Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) hammered Harris on the economy, as they led the GOP’s Monday counter-programming.”

— “Florida recreational marijuana ballot measure: Sides fired up over pot smell issue,” reports Douglas Soule of USA Today Network — Florida.

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

COMPROMISE — “Mar-a-Lago, Secret Service reach deal to reopen road when Trump isn't in Palm Beach,” reports Kristina Webb of the Palm Beach Daily News. “The agreement comes days after the Town Council at a meeting Aug. 13 directed its staff to look at possible legal options — including stripping the club of its ability to operate — as frustrations with the closure have mounted and residents have inundated the town with concerns about safety and congestion.”

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TRANSITION TIME

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ballard Partners is forming exclusive strategic alliances with KyodoPR in Japan and SABI Strategy Group in the United Kingdom. It’s part of the launch of the Ballard Global Alliance to offer government relations and public affairs services in key international markets.

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— “Donald Trump’s granddaughter, Kai Trump, commits to University of Miami to play golf,” per Adam Lichtenstein of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

— “Dog vs. python: A night in the swamp with the handsomest snake hunter in Florida,” by the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Bill Kearney.

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Kathy Castor … Former Florida Attorney General Bob Butterworth … former Rep. Don Fuqua.