EXIT STAGE RIGHT — Some third-party presidential campaigns are noble endeavors driven by the loftiest of principles. Others are vanity projects, exercises in cynicism that leave our politics slightly more soiled for the experience. Today, we learned which camp Robert F. Kennedy Jr. belongs in. In an expansive Phoenix press conference marked by its delusion about his strength as a political candidate, its conspiracy mongering and its lacerating criticism of the Democratic Party, RFK Jr. suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. The endorsement was expected, the result of discussions between the two sides that have been ongoing for months. Democrats have long accused Kennedy of being a stalking horse for Trump, and little in Kennedy’s remarks today suggested otherwise. He reiterated Trump campaign talking points about a rigged Democratic primary, a palace coup against Joe Biden and claimed the media “engineered” a surge of popularity for Kamala Harris. Kennedy said his name will remain on the ballot except in “10 battleground states” where he will ask for his name to be removed to avoid being a spoiler. In such a closely contested presidential race, the question immediately turns to what RFK’s withdrawal and endorsement means for Trump and Harris. And there is no simple answer, not yet at least. Democrats insist RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump changes nothing. “Polls show the handful of voters who still support RFK Jr. are splitting between Harris and Trump, and election analysts agree that the impact of his exit would be negligible by Election Day,” read a DNC memo released today in advance of Kennedy’s press conference. It’s true Kennedy’s support has nosedived since the halcyon days of his 2023 campaign launch, when he reached 20 percent or higher in some early polls. That high point was ages ago — before the two major parties had their primary election seasons, before Biden’s debate debacle and before Trump was the target of an assassination attempt. Most important, it was long before Biden withdrew from the race and was replaced by Harris. And it was before Kennedy was buffeted by tough media coverage of his anti-vaccine views, his personal life and before the Democratic National Committee and even Trump himself attacked him on a variety of fronts. By the end of July, Kennedy was hemorrhaging support in the polls, still scrambling to get on the ballot in key states and running out of money. Harris’ ascension to the Democratic nomination dealt Kennedy a serious blow. With a base consisting of anti-vaxxers, those animated by Covid restrictions and other disaffected voters, it’s long been argued that Kennedy posed a bigger threat to Trump than Biden. And for a time, Trump’s approach reflected that. In March, he disparaged Kennedy as a “Radical Left Democrat” who might be “indicted any day now, probably for Environmental Fraud!” Two months later, Trump described him as “one of the most Liberal Lunatics ever to run for office.” But Kennedy also had a following among Democrats, and many of them came back into the fold as soon as Harris replaced Biden atop the ticket. Pew Research Center found that his support had been cut in half between early July, when he still clocked 15 percent of registered voters and early August, when just 7 percent of voters said they leaned toward or preferred Kennedy for president. The one-time Kennedy voters who now support a different candidate picked Harris over Trump by a two-to-one margin. What’s left of Kennedy’s support, according to Pew, is a group that largely identifies as independent (74 percent). But among that cohort, a larger share leans Republican (40 percent) than Democratic (26 percent). Several pollsters have noted that there isn’t much support left to deliver to Trump. But in all seven battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that will likely determine the outcome of the election, Kennedy’s current vote share is bigger than the margin between Trump and Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages. (Almost no one recognizes that there are “10 battleground states,” as mentioned by Kennedy). It wouldn’t take many votes to swing any of those states, based on recent presidential history. Arizona and Georgia were decided by less than 12,000 votes each in 2020. Wisconsin has been decided by less than 23,000 votes in the last two presidential elections. Much depends on Kennedy’s promise to remove his name from the ballot in those states. He began that process on Thursday, when he filed the paperwork to withdraw his name from Arizona’s ballot. And his campaign filed another request today to have his name withdrawn in Pennsylvania. But removing a name from the ballot at this stage in the campaign is not so simple — depending on the state, there are a variety of legal and other obstacles standing in the way. In North Carolina, for example, close to 30 of 100 counties have already started printing ballots. As to the question of where Kennedy’s remaining supporters will land in the wake of his Trump endorsement, that answer remains murky as well. Pew Research’s analysis reports that Kennedy’s supporters are far less motivated to vote at all, compared to Trump and Harris supporters. In Pew’s August poll, 72 percent of Trump supporters and 70 percent of Harris supporters said they are “extremely motivated” to vote. Just 23 percent of RFK Jr.’s backers said the same. “It’s hard to project because of the low political engagement of these supporters,” said Carroll Doherty, Pew’s director of political research. “One of the big questions is how many of them are actually going to turn out to vote. The second question is who they prefer, and at this point it’s hard to tell.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie. PROGRAMMING NOTE: Nightly is taking its annual end-of-summer hiatus starting Monday, Aug. 26. We’ll be back Tuesday, Sept. 3, just in time for the election homestretch.
| 
