| HYPE-ELECTIONS — When was the last time Ottawa was this enthralled with by-elections? Think back to all those times when experts would caution to take by-election results with a grain of salt. These two can’t be hyped up enough after the surprise upset in Toronto-St. Paul’s back in June. They’re already bound to go down in history as the races that killed the NDP-Liberal governing pact. One involved a rare Liberal staffer rebellion. And there’s a lot more on the line than two seats in Parliament. — Leadership question: Both JAGMEET SINGH and JUSTIN TRUDEAU have had to downplay that the races will not affect their standing as leaders. But losing such safe seats for their parties would shore up the narratives that are at work against them. — All the attention … Will likely go to the tight, three-way race in Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding, called to replace former Liberal MP DAVID LAMETTI, who had held the seat since 2015. NDP candidate CRAIG SAUVÉ is angling to nab the seat from the Liberals, but so is the Bloc Québécois, whose candidate LOUIS-PHILIPPE SAUVÉ came out narrowly ahead in a recent riding poll. Any of the possible outcomes will be gripping. Consider these: —> Intriguing scenario 1: A Liberal loss would spell disaster for the PM. “A loss is another nail in the coffin,” Dalhousie University political science professor LORI TURNBULL tells Playbook. “Toronto-St. Paul’s all over again.” — Refresher: In June, the Liberals lost the urban stronghold to the Conservatives, ratcheting up the pressure on Trudeau and throwing the leadership question back onto central stage.Face-palm hilarity ensued. A repeat could provide the leverage the Trudeau-dissenters in the party need to get their point across. “I don't know that we have an equivalent of a NANCY PELOSI here, somebody who would bend his ear and have that tough conversation in a way that would really be impactful on him,” says Turnbull. “Not necessarily to quit, but [to say], ‘We need to change gears. We need to do something colossally different. And hiring MARK CARNEY is probably not it.’” — Intriguing scenario 2: Even a win for the Liberals’ LAURA PALESTINI could mark a dynamic narrative shift. “A status-quo win would be interesting, especially first [thing] back to Parliament,” Turnbull says. “It would give something for the Liberals to be happy about, which has not happened for a long time. That would be very, very useful to the prime minister in his interactions with caucus, to be able to say, ‘Hey, look, we held onto the seat.” On the other hand, a win in Montreal would frustrate efforts by Liberals trying to get the PM to understand the gravity of their situation. MARIEKE WALSH and BOB FIFE laid out in a Globe and Mail article over the weekend why Trudeau is digging in. —> Intriguing scenario 3: When Playbook got former Conservative MP PETER VAN LOAN on the horn last week to chat about House procedure, he floated a contrarian view: “I think the Liberals winning LaSalle-Émard-Verdun strengthens the likelihood that Trudeau could go.” Trudeau could then claim he has left the party in good shape and could more easily exit stage left without looking like he was run out of office. —> Intriguing scenario 4: “The big, big question mark is, what happens if the NDP loses that Winnipeg race? I think Jagmeet Singh will be in big trouble then,” Van Loan said. Back in 2016, former NDP Leader TOM MULCAIR lost the party reins in a surprise turn of events that awakened Canadian politicos to the prospect that progressive party can eat its own pretty fast and handily. — But, but, but… “I don't think the party would pivot that way,” says Turnbull. “They've gone all in on this [push to] chart this new course for the NDP,” around which they’re building up their entire election narrative. The Elmwood-Transcona by-election is being held to replace incumbent NDP MP DANIEL BLAIKIE, a seat that was long held by his late father BILL BLAIKIE. That political dynasty has played an important role in the riding’s history, but even without it, it’s widely seen as a dust up between the NDP’s LEILA DANCE versus the Conservatives’ COLIN REYNOLDS. “If the NDP were to lose the one in Winnipeg, that would be a total shock,” Turnbull says. “The stakes are high, but I don't think anybody's really thinking they're going to lose. The one to watch is Montreal.” ANOTHER ALL-NIGHTER? — ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Thanks to the giant 12-by-38.22-inch ballots — visual aid: that’s three medium-sized Domino’s pizzas in a row — caused by a whopping 91 candidates registering for LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, Elections Canada is warning once again to brace for delays. “We expect the results of the by-election will take longer to report and publish,” Elections Canada spokesperson MATTHEW MCKENNA said in an email to Playbook. “It is never possible to predict exactly when all results will be reported, but estimates based on the simulations we’ve conducted suggest it will take longer to count and report each poll.” That said, he “can confirm” the results will be available on election night. The agency hired more staff to speed up the count and will tally up advance voting results earlier than normal. Elmwood-Transcona, meanwhile, only has six candidates on the ballot. Did someone forward you this newsletter? Sign up for your own copy. 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