| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer, Phelim Kine and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Unlike Russia, China is much more ambiguous and secretive about its nuclear arsenal and nuclear weapons strategy, adding another layer of complexity to the latest missile test. | Kevin Frayer/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric In the world of international politics, a missile test is never just a missile test — it’s also a not-so-subtle warning to any potential enemies about your military might. Which brings us to the latest news from China. Beijing today announced it launched one of its long-range missiles into international waters in a test, firing what appeared to be one of its modern, solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with a dummy warhead. It’s what’s seen as a significant new show of force to Washington and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. It’s not unusual for China, like the United States and other major powers, to test-launch big weapons systems, but this one immediately caught Washington’s attention. Experts say that this is the first time China has test-launched a ballistic missile into international waters in nearly half a century; the last such test appears to have been in May, 1980. “What stands out here is how rare this is,” said ANKIT PANDA, an expert on arms control in the Asia-Pacific with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We could be seeing the start of a new phase in China’s broader approach to missile testing,” he said, adding that “a lot of old assumptions about China’s approach to nuclear weapons capabilities are changing.” In the eyes of Washington, these changes are for the worse. China’s nuclear arsenal is on pace to triple by 2035 — from an estimated 500 nuclear warheads to 1,500, according to assessments from the Pentagon. Earlier this year, the Biden administration reportedly approved plans to secretly modifiy the U.S. nuclear strategy to refocus on the Chinese nuclear threat in response. Unlike Russia, China is much more ambiguous and secretive about its nuclear arsenal and nuclear weapons strategy, adding another layer of complexity to the latest missile test, which U.S. China analysts see as a calculated play to keep the U.S. on edge. The White House told NatSec Daily that China, also referred to as the People’s Republic of China, provided advanced notice of the test and that the U.S. government monitored it. “We will continue to press for substantive bilateral engagement on issues related [to] the PRC's nuclear weapons expansion and measures to address the risks driven by the PRC's buildup,” a White House national security spokesperson said. Despite this, there’s been no visible progress on any plans for U.S.-China talks on nuclear arms control during the Biden administration. U.S. efforts to coax Beijing into nonproliferation talks hit a brick wall in July after China suspended negotiations to protest U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. The timing of China’s latest test is notable. It coincides with the U.N. General Assembly this week, and comes just before U.S. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN heads to London to meet with his British and Australian counterparts to chart out the next phase of the AUKUS partnership. (Unsurprisingly, China isn’t a big fan of AUKUS.) And it also follows this weekend’s Quad summit in Wilmington, where President JOE BIDEN convened the leaders of Japan, India, and Australia in Delaware for a summit dominated by the threats posed by China to the region’s security. But it’s unlikely Beijing timed the test — which China’s Defense Ministry called “a routine arrangement in our annual training plan” — directly in response to those events. “These things are planned months, if not years in advance,” said LYNN RUSTEN, former senior director for arms control and nonproliferation on the National Security Council. It instead reflects a “political imperative for China to demonstrate strength and readiness” both at home and internationally, said THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, a former top State Department arms envoy now with the Arms Control Association. The test launch definitely focused minds in Japan — prompting an expression of “serious concern” from Japanese government spokesperson YOSHIMASA HAYASHI. Both Rusten and Countryman said the test underscores the need for a formal U.S.-China agreement to notify one another of test missile launches to reduce the risk of miscalculations that could turn catastrophic. Both China and the U.S. already separately have such a notification deal with Russia. “If [China] wants to be a big player in the nuclear field, they need to act like a responsible player in the nuclear field,” said Rusten.
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We’re transforming the way the U.S. Navy deploys combat system capability to defend against sophisticated threats. Learn more. | | | | | HEZBOLLAH’S BIG MOVE: The White House called Hezbollah’s ballistic missile strike against Tel Aviv “deeply concerning” today, even as they voice hopes that full-on war between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group can still be avoided. Appearing on CNN this morning, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said that “We believe that there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution here to de-escalate the tensions and to prevent an all-out war,” noting that Israel and Hezbollah have yet to make any troop movements at the Israel-Lebanon border. “If you start to see ground forces moving, then it definitely takes the fighting up a notch and we're trying to prevent exactly that.” But Kirby’s worries may turn out to be prophetic. According to The Washington Post, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. HERZI HALEVI told soldiers that they needed to prepare for a potential incursion into Lebanon, where they would “go in, destroy the enemy there and decisively destroy” Hezbollah infrastructure. The escalation is potentially fueling a new humanitarian crisis as well, as Lebanon’s health ministry says Israeli strikes have killed around 50 people on Wednesday alone and forced thousands of civilians to flee their homes. FIRING MARKAROVA? Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is calling for Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY to fire Amb assador to the U.S. OKSANA MARKAROVA over her role in planning a visit to a Scranton, Penn., munitions factory In a letter to the Ukrainian leader, Johnson accuses Markarova of organizing the visit, which saw Zelenskyy tour the factory alongside vulnerable Democratic lawmakers Rep. MATT CARTWRIGHT and Sen. BOB CASEY. Republicans have criticized the visit as an effort by Ukraine to wade into the presidential election and have called for probes into whether taxpayer funds were used to facilitate the event. “This shortsighted and intentionally political move has caused Republicans to lose trust in Ambassador Markarova’s ability to fairly and effectively serve as a diplomat in this country,” Johnson wrote. “Support for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to be bipartisan, but our relationship is unnecessarily tested and needlessly tarnished when the candidates at the top of the Republican presidential ticket are targeted in the media by officials in your government.” SECRET SERVICE SLIP-UPS: The House Homeland Security Committee is out with its investigative report on the Secret Service’s handling of the first assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. And it’s a doozy for the agency. As our friends at Playbook PM report, local law enforcement and the Secret Service were siloed into different communications channels, limiting the amount of real-time coordination that could occur ahead of and in the aftermath of the shooting. The committee has made preliminary recommendations, including issuing a call for more resources and requiring the agency to define their roles for advance planning of any event. HEZBOLLAH AND HAITI SANCTIONS: The U.S. unveiled new sanctions today against Haitian gang leaders and traders helping Hezbollah and the IRCG’s Quds Force. In Haiti, the State Department is using provisions of the Global Magnitsky act to prosecute a former member of the country’s parliament, PROPHANE VICTOR, “for his role in forming, supporting, and arming gangs that have committed serious human rights abuse in Haiti.” The State Department is also sanctioning LUCKSON ELAN, the head of the Gran Grif gang that is accused of “serious human rights abuses” in Haiti’s Artibonite region. Meanwhile, the Treasury released new sanctions against a Syrian-based network of ships that have been “facilitating illicit trade” to the benefit of Hezbollah and Iran’s Quds Force. IT’S WEDNESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | ANOTHER TYPHOON BLOWS: A hot new Chinese cybersecurity bombshell has entered the villa nightmares of cyber watchers in Washington. As The Wall Street Journal’s SARAH KROUSE, ROBERT McMILLAN and DUSTIN VOLZ report, Salt Typhoon, a hacking campaign by actors linked to the Chinese government, broke into the servers of a few U.S. internet service providers in recent months to obtain sensitive information on customers. It’s not the only China-related cybersecurity threat gaining attention this week. Our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity reported on Monday about the threats posed by Flax Typhoon, a massive botnet operation that has been operating under the surface for the past four years, targeting the U.S., Taiwan, and to a lesser extent, Southeast Asia. The Department of Justice named the Chinese-based company behind the botnet group in an announcement last week.
| | THE MIDDLE EAST PRICE TAG: The price for the Pentagon’s surge in resources, troops and ships to the Middle East in the past six months could run as high as $2 to $3 billion, Defense News’ NOAH ROBERTSON reports. The tally is growing high as the U.S. military struggles to try and manage everything, everywhere, all at once with a push for resources in Europe to deal with the Ukraine war and in the Indo-Pacific to deter China. And Roberts writes that some in Congress and the Pentagon “are growing concerned about how to sustain that pace, and what it will cost the military in the long term.”
| | | COACH CHANGES HIS TUNE: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) quietly lifted his hold on the promotion of a top aide to SecDef Austin to the rank of four-star general, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD report. Tuberville had been blocking Lt. Gen. RONALD CLARK’s promotion over questions about whether Clark, a top aide to Austin, declined to inform the White House about Austin’s hospitalization in January. But shortly after Tuberville met with Clark — Biden’s pick to lead Army forces in the Pacific — the vote went through without issue, averting the looming scenario that the Senate would be unable to address the nomination until after the election. “After a detailed discussion, Sen. Tuberville dropped his hold,” the senator’s spokesperson, MALLORY JASPERS, said Wednesday in a statement. “While there were certainly failures elsewhere, the senator is confident that Lt. Gen. Clark more than fulfilled his duties during the secretary’s hospitalization.”
| | CHINA GETS SLAMMED AT UNGA: Israel and the U.S. aren’t the only countries facing some heat in New York — China is also getting plenty of barbs from European countries over its posture towards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As Eric reports, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy lashed out at a Chinese and Brazilian peace proposal, saying that it would impose a “brutal colonial past” on the Ukrainian people. He also blasted the inability of the U.N. to solve wars, citing Russia’s ability to veto actions against it at the Security Council. Zelenskyy’s not the only leader blasting Beijing. Danish President METTE FREDERIKSEN said in an interview with our own SUZANNE LYNCH that “we cannot continue a situation where China helps Russia in a war … in Europe, without consequences. They have to be held responsible for their activities.” P.S. Hungry for more UNGA news? Don’t worry, we have you covered. Check out POLITICO’s Global Playbook for more daily updates and insights from our team on the ground in New York as hundreds of world leaders and top diplomats convene for UNGA high-level week.
| | — ALEJANDRO ALEMAN is now staff director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy at the White House. He most recently was director of Latin American and Caribbean affairs at the Department of Homeland Security. — EMILY BENSON is now policy adviser for the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection at the National Security Council. She most recently was a foreign affairs officer in the Office of Migration Affairs in the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs at the State Department.
| | — PHELIM KINE, NAHAL TOOSI, and SUZANNE LYNCH, POLITICO: How China plans to get more backers for its Ukraine peace plan at the UN — JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: Japan’s departing prime minister offers a warning and plea to Americans — BEN CONNABLE, War on the Rocks: Russians do break: Historical and cultural context for a prospective Ukrainian victory
| | — House Task Force on the Attempted Assassination of Donald J. Trump Committee, 9 a.m.: "The Ongoing Investigation of the Butler, Pennsylvania Security Failure: The Secret Service's Reliance on State and Local Law Enforcement" — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 9:30 a.m.: China's comprehensive threat to American security with ROBERT O’BRIEN — Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Is there a 'Day After'? The future of post-war Gaza — Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 10:30 a.m.: Axis of aggressors: H.R. McMASTER on defending America’s interests — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12 p.m.: How public opinion shapes U.S. foreign policy — Council on Foreign Relations, 2:45 p.m.: Security challenges in Europe, Kosovo's foreign policy priorities amid regional instability, and the future of the relationship with the United States — RAND, 3 p.m.: All elements of national power: The next national defense strategy — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 3:30 p.m.: Syria: Realism in action Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who constantly shows her force against us. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who tries to mollify her in the face of her threats.
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