How Poilievre spent his summer

Sep 04, 2024

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By Kyle Duggan and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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In today's edition:

→ Nine provinces and 86 ridings, including an RV tour of Quebec.

→ A crypto crowd in Toronto turns out for CPC fundraiser.

→ TIFF MACKLEM and today’s “foregone conclusion.”

DRIVING THE DAY

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his wife, Anaida, toured Quebec by RV in June.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his wife, Anaida, toured Quebec by RV in June. | Jacques Boissinot, The Canadian Press

SALAD DAYS — Summer couldn’t have started off better for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE.

Just a few days into the long days of summer, and his party notched a win with a by-election stunner in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

— The mini biggies: But the political off-season stretch really kicked off for him in June with a busy RV mini tour through Quebec gunning for Bloc seats.

Headspace Marketing’s ÉRIC BLAIS kicked at the RV tires in The Toronto Star,raising an eyebrow over whether the effort will actually translate to votes.

Poilievre also toured through northern Ontario in a campaign-style, mini whistle-stop, prime orange-blue battleground territory where outgoing NDP MP CAROL HUGHES’ riding will no longer exist under the new seat map. A revised electoral map will apply in the next election, something which happens every ten years to adjust for population changes, and this one erases her Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing riding and is expected to turn the surrounding ones into heated battles.

— Been everywhere, man: He’s been to nine provinces, 86 ridings and 75 blue-collar work sites (factories, papermills, etc.), a Conservative source tells Playbook.

Cabin Radio reports Poilievre is bound for Yellowknife for a Sunday rally. Playbook also hears the Tory leader is soon headed for Nunavut as well.

— Checked out: Playbook’s summer prognosticators pegged Poilievre’s tour-filled summer and the fact that Liberal leadership speculation would fill the summer news void — the few days where there was one.

— Check the list: Battleground ridings: Check. Flipping pancakes at the Calgary Stampede:Check. Fundraising circuit: Check — opening wallets in Saint John, Sudbury, Halifax, Vancouver and Montreal.

— Liberals, trailing: Not just in the polls. For several places on the Liberals’ summer agenda, Poilievre was scouting ahead of them. The upcoming Liberal caucus retreat near Victoria? He was fishing for dollars there just yesterday.The Aug. 14 Ontario Sudbury caucus trip? Poilievre was there Aug. 1 for a fundraiser and splashing across headlines. It wasn’t all blue skies, though.

— The good: He can bask in his rock-solid polling position. His fundraising king reputation bolstered by stats that came in this summer, which is feeding the Tory ad machine. The numbers on the RV odometer ticking higher and higher.

— The bad: Despite sailing into summer with campaign-style mini tours, the party made some notable campaign-style missteps as well. The Conservatives had to deep-six an ad designed around a speech that contained stock footage of Russian fighter jets. Not to mention the supposed Canadian school kids … in a Serbian classroom and Canadian homes under construction … in Slovenia. Then there was the bizarre comms lash out at the Liberals for indulging in the opulence of Sudbury’s Holiday Inn.

— The ugly: Poilievre gave some limited one-on-one interviews to local reporters during his travels. That included a scrappy encounter with Sudbury.com’s JENNY LAMOTHE, where Poilievre claimed to not know anything about the far-right group Diagolon. He had previously denounced it for comments by the group’s founder about Poilievre’s wife.

That one put a weak spot on display in the dog days of summer.

— By the numbers: Nine “ax-the-tax” rallies, many of which as he swung through northern Ontario at the end of July, including Fort Frances, Kirkland Lake and Hearst, along with Winnipeg and Rivière-du-Loup, Quebec.

He headlined 10 fundraisers since summer kicked off, plus another set for tomorrow in Vancouver. Four major televised press conferences.

— The upshot: When Parliament revs back up in 12 days, he’ll return on roughly the same footing he left it, but with a challenge to the NDP to pull its support on the unpopular government over the carbon tax. That, as the big blue fundraising apparatus churns out election-prep messaging to prompt supporters to chip into the overflowing war chest.

THE CRYPTO VOTE — Poilievre doesn't talk much these days about alternative currencies, but a bevy of cryptocurrency investors and senior executives schmoozed among 111 donors listed as attending an Aug. 6 CPC fundraiser at The Globe and Mail building in Toronto.

→ In the room: ADDISON CAMERON-HUFF, “Toronto's cryptocurrency lawyer;” entrepreneur BRUCE CROXON, formerly of Dragons’ Den; CRAIG DELLANDREA, “an enthusiastic participant in the bitcoin/blockchain revolution;” MICHAEL NASSER, co-founder and vice president of digital currency brokerage Satstreet; CHASE FARBSTEIN, Satstreet's director of finance; BRIAN HOWLETT, chair of the board at Bitfarms; TREVOR KOVERKO, co-founder of crypto firms Polymesh and Polymath; MELANIE PUMP, Polymath's CFO; ERIC RICHMOND, general counsel and head of business development at digital currency app Shakepay.

→ Also at summertime CPC fundraisers: According to Elections Canada records of Poilievre's August fundraisers: Liberal MP TODD RUSSELL was at the Toronto event; business magnates JAMES D. IRVING and DAVID IRVING attended a Saint John event on Aug. 16.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in “Western Newfoundland and Labrador” for a 12:55 p.m. ET announcement on the National School Food Program, per his itinerary.

Trudeau will be flanked by: Premier ANDREW FUREY, Families Minister JENNA SUDDS, Agriculture Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY and Rural Economic Development Minister GUDIE HUTCHINGS.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will be in Montreal to meet with Quebec business leaders.

— Playbook did not receive public itineraries from Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET or NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY hosts a community meeting on the Pender Islands in her riding.

DULY NOTED

— Defense Minister BILL BLAIR is heading to Germany for the 24th Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which the U.S. will host at Ramstein Air Base. Blair’s Friday itinerary indicates he plans to announce additional military assistance to Ukraine.

For your radar

Tiff Macklem speaks during a news conference.

Governor Tiff Macklem is widely expected to announce another cut today, making it three in a row. | Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images

TIFF DAY — If pretty much every forecaster is correct, today’s Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is as predictable as they come.

— No drama here: Governor TIFF MACKLEM will likely cut the bank's target rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent — the third-consecutive cut this year as post-pandemic rates slowly return to Earth.

There's not a lot of daylight between the nation's bank economists:

→ RBC: "Moving forward, the hurdle for more BOC rate cuts from what are still-elevated levels is low. Our own base-case assumes another 150 basis points of cuts (including the expected September reduction) by mid-2025," write NATHAN JANZEN and CLAIRE FAN, whose prediction would bring rates to 3 percent by the middle of next year.

→ CIBC: "We’ve already seen enough of a drop in Canadian inflation, and sufficient labour market weakness, to make another rate cut a foregone conclusion," writes AVERY SHENFELD, who observed the bank's preference for moving in 25-point intervals.

→ BMO: "We expect a further 75 bps of rate reductions this year and a similar-sized decline next year, returning the policy rate to a more neutral 3.0 percent by mid-2025," writes SAL GUATIERI, matching RBC's outlook.

→ TD: "Around 50% of borrowers are still going to experience sticker shock when they renew their mortgages over the next two years, even with the central bank expected to eventually get to a neutral rate of 2.25%," write BEATA CARANCI and JAMES ORLANDO.

2024 WATCH

The Democratic National Convention.

Kamala Harris’ campaign and the Democratic National Committee said Tuesday they are sending nearly $25 million to support down-ballot Democrats. | David Hume Kennerly for POLITICO

CASH RULES — The KAMALA HARRIS camp is preparing to shell out an unprecedented amount on down-ballot races,POLITICO’s JESSICA PIPER tells us.

Just how much? $25 million, to be split by her campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

It follows record fundraising during the past six weeks and casts a spotlight on the importance of these races, which could be make or break for the next president to govern effectively.

— Always be closing: Right about now, candidates would normally be giving their closing arguments. But Harris is still introducing herself to voters.

DONNA BRAZILE, the Harris confidante who managed Al Gore’s 2000 campaign, says that’s the state of affairs in America’s first real “snap election.”

Eli Stokols and Alex Isenstadt have more on that.

— Notable quotable: JIM MESSINA, BARACK OBAMA’s 2012 campaign manager and informal adviser to Harris, says she’s had the best start out of the gate since Obama won South Carolina’s 2008 primary, but “in every single battleground state, we’re still within the margin of error.”

— Don’t believe the hype: JUSTIN GRIMMER writes in POLITICO Magazine to take electoral forecasts with a bigger grain of salt than you might want to. The worry? “Probabilistic forecasts are often misinterpreted,” he says, “and when they are, they may cause voters to stay home.”

— POLITICO's senior political columnist JONATHAN MARTIN writes: "The best possible outcome in November for the future of the Republican Party is for former President Donald Trump to lose and lose soundly. GOP leaders won’t tell you that on the record. I just did."

Martin continues: "Trump will never concede defeat, no matter how thorough his loss. Yet the more decisively Vice President Kamala Harris wins the popular vote and electoral college the less political oxygen he’ll have to reprise his 2020 antics; and, importantly, the faster Republicans can begin building a post-Trump party."

In related headlines:

— 5 things to understand about Trump’s visit to Arlington.

— Democrats target Trump’s muddled abortion message

MEDIA ROOM

— “There was a hole in the ground where my house used to be,” Jasper Mayor RICHARD IRELAND tells Maclean’s in a wide-ranging Q&A on the July fire that destroyed a third of the structures in the mountain town.

— The New York Times Magazine: How NAFTA broke American politics.

— “The best you get is benign neglect and the worst you get is spirited hostility,” MICHAEL WERNICK, a former clerk of the Privy Council, tells the Ottawa Citizen in a story on a new report from the Global Government Forum that considers how politicians treat public servants.

— “A common narrative runs through Poilievre’s videos,” CHRISTOPHER CHEUNG of The Tyee notes. “Viewers are told how everything in the country is going wrong, and then Poilievre, who has held office as a Conservative politician since he was 25, claims that he’s familiar with the struggles of everyday people. And that he knows how to set things right.”

— On the “Front Burner” pod: “Why rivals turned allies and scrambled B.C. politics.” “Curse of Politics” begins with conversation on the same.

— What Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is reading and sharing: “Canada's 10 worst natural disasters totaled C$30B in annual insured losses.”

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN and KYLE DUGGAN: Beijing hits back at Canada's EV tariffs.

— In Pro news from London: GRAHAM LANKTREE reports that Britain is sitting tight on tariffs. “Behind the scenes, the U.K. government is weighing up whether to follow its Western allies in hitting Beijing,” Lanktree says. “Ministers want to avoid a trade war with China that could hurt the economy.”

In other news for Pro readers:

— 5 things to know about John Podesta’s China trip.

— Biden administration approves expansion of New Fortress LNG export permit.

— Why the government let extreme heat get away with murder.

— Some nations see Trump as the pro-trade candidate.

— Baby corals offer hope in ‘dark time’ for Florida reefs.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Alberta MLA SHANNON PHILLIPS, NDP MPP CHRIS GLOVER, former Ontario Cabinet minister GREG SORBARA, former NDP MP DENIS BLANCHETTE and former Sen. GEORGE BAKER.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it our way.

Spotted: Trudeau, on the horn with Dominican Republic President LUIS ABINADER. The PM’s itinerary was also updated to include a call with Ukraine President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.

ARUN VENKATARAMAN, U.S. assistant secretary of commerce for global markets, in Ottawa with U.S. envoy DAVID COHEN.

Noted: A “special evening” C$850-a-ticket fundraiser just listed on the Conservative website with CPC York Centre candidate ROMAN BABER and MP SHUV MAJUMDAR to support the York Centre riding association.

Movers and shakers: SHAUNA HEMINGWAY has joined the Business Council of Canada as an adviser focused on Mexico and the Americas.

The Public Policy Forum has hired LEILA EL SHENNAWY to be its digital editor.

Physician JAMES ORBINSKI is the new principal of Massey College in Toronto, though he won’t formally retire from York University until Dec. 31.

GENEVIÈVE PARENT, a Université Laval law professor, has been appointed to her third term as a member of the Canada Agricultural Review Tribunal.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

— Liberal MPs are fanning out across southern Ontario.

11 a.m. Uxbridge Mayor DAVE BARTON will join Liberal MP JENNIFER O’CONNELL for an infrastructure announcement at Harold Bell Memorial Park in Goodwood.

1 p.m. Liberal MP LLOYD LONGFIELD will make a clean-teach announcement at Boundless Accelerator in Guelph.

2 p.m. Liberal MP MARK GERRETSEN will be at “Hub100” in Kingston with news of government support for “critical minerals value chains.”

3 p.m. Liberal MPs VIVIANE LAPOINTE and MARC G. SERRÉ will also have an infrastructure announcement — this one with Sudbury Mayor PAUL LEFEBVRE in Tom Davies Square.

4 p.m. (2 p.m. MT) Liberal MP MICHAEL MCLEOD will be in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, with news of funding for a project by Makerspace YK.

TRIVIA

Tuesday’s answer: Canadian Rear-Adm. LEONARD MURRAY once said: "The Battle of the Atlantic was not won by any Navy or any Air Force, it was won by the courage, fortitude and determination of the British and Allied Merchant Navy." Sept. 3 is Merchant Navy Veterans Day.

Props to IAN GLYNWILLIAMS, ROB LEFORTE, ALEX WELLSTEAD, DAVID LAMETTI, JOE MACDONALD, J. ROLLAND VAIVE, MARC SHAW, CHRIS ROL, GUY SKIPWORTH, DAN MCCARTHY, ADAM ENKIN, DUANE BRATT, LAURA JARVIS, ALEXANDER LANDRY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DARRYL DAMUDE, STEVE KAROL, MALCOLM MCKAY, JENN KEAY.

Says Landry: "In Kingston, Ontario every year for the Battle of the Atlantic, they ring the Merchant Navy memorial bell near Ontario Street — a single ring for each ship lost. Usually makes for quite a long parade for the RMC cadets!"

Wednesday’s question: Name a poet beloved by both PIERRE TRUDEAU and RONALD REAGAN; they reportedly exchanged lines of his poetry from memory.

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

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