| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT — “Ukraine foreign minister resigns amid war's biggest reshuffle,” by Reuters’ Olena Harmash in Kyiv: “Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA resigned on Wednesday, the highest-profile casualty so far of a major government reshuffle ordered by President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKIY at a crucial juncture in the 30-month war against Russia.” HARRIS’ SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP — “Kamala Harris calls in UK Labour strategist for election-winning advice,” by Esther Webber and Stefan Boscia in London: In a sign of deepening ties between the two teams, [DEBORAH] MATTINSON will travel to Washington D.C. next week where she will meet strategists from the Harris-Walz campaign and share insight on [KEIR] STARMER’s decisive path to victory in July’s U.K.’s election.”
|  A sliver of elected Republicans and GOP thinkers fear a second Donald Trump term could take the party in the wrong direction. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | WHAT IF TRUMP LOSES? — A few days ago, conservative commentator ERICK ERICKSON raised eyebrows in GOP circles when he spilled a dirty little secret on X: Some Republicans are privately OK with a DONALD TRUMP loss on Election Day. But there’s another part to that secret: It’s not just the Never Trumpers. Some of the Republicans wishing for a Trump loss include long-standing GOP figures throughout the nation who bleed red and wouldn’t dare to say this publicly but who are more than ready to move on from the Trump era. This morning, these Republicans get their perspective aired by our own Jonathan Martin, who argues in a new column that “the best possible outcome in November for the future of the Republican Party is for Donald Trump to lose and lose soundly.” “GOP leaders won’t tell you that on the record,” he writes. “I just did.” It’s funny: JMart told us in the Playbook Daily Briefing that he thought his column would be a bit “provocative” and stir the pot but what he found while making calls was that many Republicans agreed with the take. We’ve encountered the same. While it may seem counterintuitive, a sliver of elected Republicans and GOP thinkers fear a second Trump term could take the party in the wrong direction.
- Defense hawks continue to worry about Trump abandoning U.S. allies and upending the world order in a second term.
“There’s a lot of anxiety about what Trump does to Republican ability to win in 2028 — and what he also may do to the party in terms of policy long-term,” one conservative leader told Playbook. “There is just this concern that like, ‘OK, if the party just goes in that direction, then what kind of party is it going forward? And can conservatives, then, have a home going forward?’” Even among these types, there are, of course, fears of the short-term consequences of a Trump loss. While Republicans still feel confident they’ll flip the Senate, if they don’t — and they also lose the House — Democrats will get at least two more years to pass progressive priorities and possibly even codify Roe v. Wade. But if Republicans hypothetically win the upper chamber, providing a check on a future KAMALA HARRIS administration, some wouldn’t think twice about whether they want Trump in the White House. Future congressional majorities are also on their minds. JMart notes that if Harris wins, the 2026 election cycle would come as the same party has held the presidency for six years — “always a promising midterm for the opposition.” Republicans would have a good shot at recruiting popular governors like Virginia’s GLENN YOUNKIN, Georgia’s BRIAN KEMP and New Hampshire’s CHRIS SUNUNU to run for Senate. “A Democratic House majority would also be far easier for Republicans to reverse under Harris than Trump,” JMart continues. “And the GOP would almost certainly find more success in the 36 governors’ races taking place that year if they were running against the so-called six-year-itch.” Of course, turning the page on Trump wouldn’t be easy — even if he loses. 1. Remember: We’ve been through this before. Trump lost in 2020, and most Republican insiders — including some of the sharpest political minds, like MITCH McCONNELL — thought for sure he’d be toast after Jan. 6. And yet, here we are, less than nine weeks from Election Day 2024, and he’s in a tight race for another term as president. The party didn’t turn the page. If he loses again, what’s to keep the MAGA king from meddling in 2026 from Mar-a-Lago — or even running again in 2028, when he’d be 82? In fact, some Republicans told JMart that maybe they should hope Trump wins in November — only so he can serve his final term now and just get out of Dodge. 2. The size of a loss matters. There’s concern that Trump if he loses in November, he will stoke election lies that cast doubt on his defeat. That’s why in these Republicans’ minds, the best-case scenario is Harris winning big. “The more decisively Vice President Kamala Harris wins the popular vote and Electoral College, the less political oxygen he’ll have to reprise his 2020 antics; and, importantly, the faster Republicans can begin building a post-Trump party,” JMart writes. Related read: “What Would Stop the Steal 2.0 Look Like?” by John McCormack at The Dispatch 3. Another complication: Trump’s exit will hardly mend the rift that has become evident in the GOP over the past few years, as a battle between more the traditional conservatism of old and today’s MAGA populist wing comes to a head. “You’re assuming Republicans have a top of the ticket problem and not a voter base problem,” TERRY SULLIVAN, a former GOP strategist and manager of Sen. MARCO RUBIO’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign, told JMart. “It’s not like our leaders have been leading the voters to the wilderness against the voters’ judgment.” Indeed, Trump’s campaign is well aware of where the base stands. “President Trump has unified the GOP like never before and expanded his coalition of support across partisan lines to Democrats and Independents,” Trump spokesperson BRIAN HUGHES said in a statement. “Our campaign and down-ballot Republicans are poised for a great result in November, despite a few hand-wringing, anonymous sources who are not bold enough to attach their names to this drivel.” Still, some party faithful have their fingers crossed. “I think a lot of old-school conservatives might hope that if he loses, there’s an opportunity to just completely forget the last eight years happened,” the aforementioned conservative leader told Playbook. “I think this battle’s coming in the party no matter what.” Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance: TRACKING THE SENIOR VOTE — Protecting Medicare tops the list in this election, according to a new bipartisan poll. Today, that means Medicare Advantage.
Medicare Advantage represents over half of the Medicare program, serving more than 33 million seniors. Seniors choose Medicare Advantage for affordable health care with better outcomes.
That’s why a supermajority of older voters agrees: Washington must keep health care affordable for seniors by standing up for Medicare Advantage. Read the results. | | | UP FOR DEBATE — Harris will stay in Pittsburgh from Thursday up to the debate next week, focusing on debate prep there, WaPo’s Tyler Pager reports. The Harris campaign also told NBC’s Yamiche Alcindor that they’re still negotiating with ABC over the debate rules, including about muting microphones. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK I — One million people have now registered to vote this cycle through Vote.org. That’s a big milestone, including 17 percent who live in the seven top swing states. More than one-third of the new registrations are from 18-year-olds (way up from 8 percent in 2020), and 79 percent are from voters under 35. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK II — As Republican Senate candidate BERNIE MORENO hits Sen. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) for failing to pay property taxes on time, a trust belonging in part to the wealthy Republican Senate candidate was more than a year late on paying a $20,000 tax bill on a house that it owns, Daniel Lippman reports. Until last week, a house in Key Largo, Florida, owned by the Moreno Family Land Trust was listed on the Monroe County tax collector website as owing $20,283 for its annual taxes in 2022, leading to the issuance of a lien in June 2023. Moreno listed himself as trustee of the entity on his personal financial disclosure. Playbook inquired about the unpaid bill on Friday, and the debt was paid later that day. Meanwhile, Moreno’s campaign website continues to include attacks on Brown’s spotty history related to property taxes, which includes improperly claiming an owner-occupancy tax credit and being repeatedly late paying some bills. “Bernie does not manage the finances related to the house,” Moreno campaign spokesperson REAGAN McCARTHY said yesterday. “One of his siblings does and it was an unfortunate oversight.”
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance:   Seniors can’t afford policies that make their health care more expensive. They are counting on Washington to protect Medicare Advantage. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. What we’re watching … Just a month ago, Rep. DAN NEWHOUSE (R-Wash.) looked to be in grave danger of becoming the latest House Republican to lose his seat after voting to impeach Trump in 2021. Now Newhouse is sitting relatively pretty, facing MAGA loyalist JERROD SESSLER in the general-election runoff. That wasn’t dumb luck: Sarah Ferris reports for Inside Congress that a micro-targeted texting campaign run by the Republican Main Street Partnership sought to drive voters toward Sessler and away from fellow Republican TIFFANY SMILEY, who might have had more crossover appeal. “Tiffany would have been a problem for Dan,” RMSP’s SARAH CHAMBERLAIN said. “We had 35,000 MAGA [voters] that we knew were hard-core Trumpers. And we had all their contacts, so we just kept texting.” At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. On the trail Harris will travel to North Hampton, New Hampshire, where she’ll announce her small business policy plans at the Throwback Brewery at 2:45 p.m., before returning to Washington. Trump will have a town hall with Fox News’ SEAN HANNITY in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, at 5:30 p.m., airing at 9 p.m. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will travel to Pennsylvania for campaign events in Lancaster and Pittsburgh.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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AG Merrick Garland announced federal charges against Hamas leaders which include counts of terrorism. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The Justice Department has officially filed criminal charges against YAHYA SINWAR and other Hamas leaders over the murders of dozens of Americans in Israel during the Oct. 7 attacks, per CBS. AG MERRICK GARLAND announced the federal charges, which were actually filed under seal in February and include counts of terrorism. Of course, the likelihood of these people actually being arrested and tried in the U.S. is slim. U.S. officials had held off on publicizing the charges, but the decision-making changed once Hamas’ ISMAIL HANIYEH was assassinated and American hostage HERSH GOLDBERG-POLIN was killed, NYT’s Adam Goldman, Ronen Bergman and Glenn Thrush report. The killings of Goldberg-Polin and other hostages now seem to have thrown yet another obstacle in the way of an Israel-Hamas cease-fire/hostage release deal, and U.S. officials are again growing less optimistic, Erin Banco and Jonathan Lemire report. The Philadelphi corridor remains a big sticking point in talks. Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s intransigence on that issue now looms as “the main obstacle,” WaPo’s Claire Parker, Loveday Morris and John Hudson report. And Hamas’ new threat that it will kill more hostages if Israel attempts to rescue them isn’t making negotiations easier either, WSJ’s Rory Jones and Summer Said report. Domestic fallout: “Will the College Protests Matter in November?” by NYT’s Alan Blinder Elsewhere in the region: NYT’s Eric Schmitt has deeper reporting on the U.S./Iraqi operation against the Islamic State last week, which involved hundreds of troops across many miles. Seven American troops were injured, and 14 Islamic State militants were killed. It was “one of the most sweeping counterterrorism missions in the country in recent years,” a recognition of ISIS’ recent resurgence. COMING FOR KYIV — “US close to agreeing on long-range missiles for Ukraine; delivery to take months,” by Reuters’ Mike Stone, Patricia Zengerle and Gerry Doyle 2024 WATCH THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER — A new Goldman Sachs economic forecast predicts that a Trump presidency, even with a divided Congress, would damage U.S. gross domestic product due to his radical tariff and immigration plans, Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey reports. The effects of those policies would outweigh the maintenance of GOP tax cuts. Democratic control of Washington, on the other hand, would narrowly boost GDP despite higher taxes on corporations, Goldman estimates. VIEW FROM THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN — A new memo yesterday from CHRIS LaCIVITA and SUSIE WILES argues that Trump is now the candidate with momentum, having ended Harris’ honeymoon and taken the lead in Nate Silver’s forecast. In addition to criticizing the media, they make clear that their main focus is tagging Harris as too liberal and saddling her with the Biden administration’s baggage, while Trump is “bringing hope and the promise of endless opportunity.” Read the memo NOT GOING THERE YET — Advocates for reparations to Black people are hopeful that Harris’ past support for the idea from her 2020 presidential bid will hold up, WaPo’s Emmanuel Felton and Aaron Schaffer report. Her campaign isn’t commenting on her current position.
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance:   Medicare Advantage is affordable health care for seniors, and they want Washington to protect it. | | | TRUMP CARDS
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There was a smattering of news yesterday across several of Donald Trump's cases. | Pool photo by Justin Lane | THE TRUMP TRIALS — They may have receded somewhat in the public eye, but Trump’s various criminal trials are still chugging forward, with the potential to upend the news cycle in the coming months before the election. There was a smattering of news yesterday across several of his cases: Election subversion: Trump officially pleaded not guilty and waived his right to appear at the arraignment in special counsel JACK SMITH’s new federal superseding indictment against him, for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election, per CNN’s Tierney Sneed and Katelyn Polantz. His lawyers will be at Judge TANYA CHUTKAN’s hearing tomorrow. Hush money: As Trump tries to delay his sentencing in the hush money case, for which he was already convicted of 34 felony counts, a federal judge again slapped down his attempt to switch the case into federal court instead of state court, per ABC’s Aaron Katersky and Peter Charalambous. Trump has already appealed. Docu-drama: With Smith trying to revive the federal classified documents mishandling case that Judge AILEEN CANNON threw out, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington yesterday filed a brief arguing that Cannon should be overturned and stripped from the case, ProPublica’s Marilyn Thompson reports. Meanwhile, an NBC excerpt from David Rohde’s new book, “Where Tyranny Begins” ($29.99), pulls back the curtain further on the 2022 clash between the FBI and DOJ leaders over the Mar-a-Lago documents. ALL IN THE FAMILY — “Trump Family’s Land Deals in Albania Stir Up Lingering Resentments,” by NYT’s Eric Lipton and Vladimir Karaj: “Local landowners are questioning how JARED KUSHNER and IVANKA TRUMP were able to sew up development rights for two luxury hotels on hot coastal property.” JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court sides with Biden administration in dispute over Oklahoma abortion referrals,” by the L.A. Times’ David Savage STUDENT DEBT RELIEF WHAC-A-MOLE — Georgia led several GOP-controlled states in filing a legal challenge to the Biden administration’s new student loan forgiveness policy, just the latest in a series of Republican attempts to stop Biden’s piecemeal approach to wiping out debt, Reuters’ Nate Raymond reports. POLICY CORNER
|  Despite significant delays, the Biden administration says that their broadband program is still on schedule in the big picture. | Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo | STRUGGLING TO CONNECT — One of the central stories of the Biden administration is massive federal investments that won’t fully come online — or reap political benefits for Democrats — until after he’s out of office. Expanding broadband internet access in rural Virginia is a prime example, as John Hendel reports this morning: $1.5 billion from the infrastructure law was meant to improve life in far-flung communities. But delays, particularly amid federal-state squabbling about an affordability requirement, have held up the implementation. The Biden administration says nonetheless that the broadband program is still on schedule in the big picture. “Whose fault was the delay? That depends who you ask,” John writes. “Republicans have generally blamed overweening Washington bureaucrats, but industry critics say the Virginia government was too sympathetic with the telecom industry from the start.” CONGRESS PULLOUT FALLOUT — In the latest twist in Republicans’ attempt to hold the Biden administration accountable on the Afghanistan withdrawal, House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) subpoenaed Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN to testify, NBC’s Raquel Coronell Uribe reports. McCaul indicated he would seek to hold him in contempt otherwise. The State Department shot back that McCaul wasn’t operating in good faith, and that Blinken was unavailable for his proposed dates but had suggested different options. WHAT JAMIE RASKIN IS UP TO — “House Democrats ask Trump if he illegally accepted $10 million from Egypt,” by WaPo’s Carol Leonnig and Aaron Davi
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can’t escape the Michigan ballot. Kari Lake is getting some crucial support on the airwaves. Jaime Davidson, whose sentence was commuted by Donald Trump, has reoffended. Lara and Tiffany Trump got hacked. Isaac Hayes’ “Hold On, I’m Coming,” now can’t be played at Trump rallies. Jamie Raskin’s memoir is being turned into an oratorio. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Grace Hagerty is joining the Harris campaign as national booker. She previously was press secretary at the Labor Department. — The NewDEAL has named its fall 2024 class of state and local leaders who will join its network as Democratic rising stars. The officials are Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold, Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, Connecticut state Sen. James Maroney, Colorado state Rep. Lindsey Daugherty, Georgia state Sen. Jason Esteves, Phoenix City Council member Kesha Hodge Washington, Santa Cruz, California, City Council member Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson, Montana state Rep. Emma Kerr-Carpenter, North Dakota state Rep. Jayme Davis, Ohio state Rep. Dontavius Jarrells, Pittsburgh City Controller Rachael Heisler, Williamsport, Pennsylvania, Mayor Derek Slaughter, Newport, Rhode Island, Mayor Xay Khamsyvoravong, Texas state Rep. John Bucy and Rutland, Vermont, Mayor Mike Doenges. — Theo LeCompte is joining Leaders on the Fast Track as executive director of the new LOFT Fellowship program. He previously was an independent strategy consultant, including for the 2024 Democratic National Convention, and is a Veho, Uber and Obama Commerce Department alum. — Jonay Foster Holkins is joining Public Private Strategies as senior adviser. She previously was senior director of policy and corporate initiatives at Business Roundtable. MEDIA MOVES — Brian Stelter has returned to CNN as chief media analyst and the lead author of the Reliable Sources newsletter. “It will be different, because I am different,” he wrote. … Alisha Powell Gillis has been named VP for programming and speaker engagement at Scoop News Group. She most recently was senior producer for editorial at POLITICO. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Hussein Salama is now the official White House videographer. He previously was traveling digital director at the Education Department. … Stephanie Campbell is now director of budget review and assessment at the Office of the National Cyber Director. She most recently was lead financial specialist at the Federal Maritime Commission. TRANSITIONS — Karen Donfried has been named the next director of the Congressional Research Service. She most recently was assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs, and is a German Marshall Fund of the United States alum. … Alison Centofante is now VP of public relations and comms at Americans United for Life. She most recently was a comms consultant, and is a Live Action and Alliance Defending Freedom alum. … Sean Simons is joining Gates Ventures to work on media relations and comms. He previously was senior director of comms and content strategy at Bono’s (RED), and is a Gabby Giffords and Mark Kelly alum. … … Joseph Orlando and Kelly Montgomery are joining Avoq. Orlando will be VP and lobbyist on the government relations team and previously was a professional staff member for the House Energy & Commerce Committee. Montgomery will be account leadership director for the comms team and previously was comms manager for the National Restaurant Association. … Forterra has added Channing Lee Foster as head of public affairs and Paul Benfield as head of strategy. Foster previously was with Invariant’s defense and national security practice. Benfield previously was a director at Pallas Advisors. WEDDING — Zach Deatherage, legislative director for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), and Ansley Schoen, professional staff member on the House Ways and Means majority staff, got married Aug. 10 in her childhood church in Marietta, Georgia. They met when Ansley worked for then-ranking member Jason Smith (R-Mo.) on the House Budget Committee and Zach worked for Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who was on the committee. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Faith Milbrath, Brian McCormack, Alexia Sikora, Ben Nyce, Nick Runkel, Grace VanDeGrift, Brett and Jordan Layson, Kathryn and Truman Reed, Jack Rosemond and Alex Stepahin, Katie Morley and Jordan Dickinson, Elizabeth McKay, Marie Price, and Will and Emily Frierson. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Erin Landers Peters, comms and public affairs manager at Meta, and Jay Peters, principal at NewEdge Wealth, recently welcomed Emery O’Brien Peters. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) … Zach Leighton … CRC Advisors’ Laura Schlapp … Jerry Dunleavy … POLITICO’s Kierra Frazier and Dave Brown … Washington Examiner’s Susan Ferrechio … Dana Gartzke … WSJ’s Nancy Youssef … Kelu Chao … SBA’s Matt Sonneborn … Emily Armstrong of Rep. Jahana Hayes’ (D-Conn.) office … Will Taliaferro … DoorDash’s Chad Horrell … Michael McAuliff … Jared Allen of the National Automobile Dealers Association … Harold Ickes … former acting CIA Director Mike Morell … Victoria Cram … former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer … Hagar Hajjar Chemali … Victoria Coates ... Anu Rangappa ... Sam Dagher ... Graham Weinschenk … Kim Wehle … Lisa Bianco … Claire Bischoff of Prosek Partners Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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