| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan | | Presented by |  | | | Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. It’s Friday! Let’s get to it: → Canadians and climate action: It’s complicated. → The confidence votes keep rolling. → Playbook boldly goes deep into space policy. → Who’s up and who’s down this week. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
CARBON, HUH? — No wonder the Liberals rebranded the fraught carbon rebate they — and economists — insist is leaving most households better off.
— Say what: A slim majority of Canadians — 52.6 percent — told Forum Research last December that they had never heard of the Climate Action Incentive Payment, which compensates households for the cost of the carbon levy. Some had been receiving it for years. Nearly the same proportion (48.1 percent) said they didn't know anybody who’d received it during the previous year. In February, the government announced a name change. Those findings were two of the most revealing in newly published polling commissioned by the federal government on Canadian attitudes and habits on climate change. Forum conducted six waves of surveys between July 31, 2023 and April 1 at a cost of C$179,699.38. Playbook enlisted DAN ARNOLD, Pollara's chief strategy officer and the prime minister's former pollster, to walk us through the trove of data — and decode how it may have influenced the insiders who shape climate policy. — Tax facts: Forum found more support than opposition for the carbon levy. Through each wave, support hovered in the low-to-mid 40s and opposition sat in the mid-to-high 20s. But the government's plan to hike the levy until 2030 scored mixed reviews: support for an increase ranged in the mid-to-high 30s, a few points ahead of opposition. Arnold's take: One survey question influences the next. "If you were giving people a whole bunch of questions about their economic outlook beforehand, and then ask the question about carbon pricing, I think the numbers would be lower." — Cost of living: The surveys did get to affordability questions. Two-thirds of respondents perceived that gasoline costs had "tripled since 2019" — though they weren't asked to pin that increase on specific factors. Two winter surveys revealed a slim majority (50.6 percent and 52.8 percent) "set the thermostat higher in summer or lower in winter to save energy." — Climate control: Nearly half of respondents (45.5 percent) polled in February supported "funding the development of technologies to ‘engineer’ the Earth's climate as a last-resort option to limit further climate change." A mere 15.1 percent stood opposed. Arnold's take: Do more focus groups. "If people think of some weird, sci-fi weather control device, it's one thing. If you're just thinking about carbon capture, it's a different thing. … I would look at that as: there's certainly openness to some kind of technology-based solution." The question's “last-resort” framing would also influence respondents, he said. — Funky finding: More than one in four (28.2 percent) believed climate change is "a conspiracy created by foreign governments." Arnold's take: That one's not making policy. "Questions like that are more about identifying people and putting them into groups, as opposed to using the question itself to design a policy." Policymakers could create "psychographic profiles" that isolate voters who care about climate change, think it's human-driven and want to do something about it. — The polling-policy pipeline: Policy isn't entirely a popularity contest, said Arnold, but polls can also reveal opportunities to do the principled thing even if it's unpopular. "As long as people don't notice that they're angry about it, if it's not one of those things that you're talking about every day, then who cares? Do the thing that's most effective, that's going to make a difference, that will help you hit your climate targets," he said. — The broader point: Canadian views on climate change are more nuanced than the public debate might have you believe. — Further reading at The Hub: What happens after the Conservatives ax the carbon tax? | | A message from Flip the Switch: On the last day of our (losing) game of Monopoly, it’s important to highlight why extended interswitching is important to grain farmers and the sector at large. It is the only tool that introduces competition between the two railway monopolies, which reduces transportation costs and increases access for Canadian goods. It’s time for a 30-month extension to the pilot that will help to unlock the full potential of competition. Learn more. | | | | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the GTA. He has meetings set with the Ismaili community and Hindu. He’s also doing a roundtable on access to sexual and reproductive health care. The events are closed to media, but the roundtable is pooled photo access.
Trudeau caps a whirlwind week with an evening party fundraiser in Mississauga, Ont. Brampton Centre MP SHAFQAT ALI hosts the PM at Chandni Victoria Hall. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto to tour a transit facility with Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE and Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW. There’s a 10:30 a.m. media avail scheduled. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH and Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released their public plans for today. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Ottawa and will participate in Parliament. Later in the day, she’ll train to Toronto to join an all-party group of MPs at the airport to welcome the family of MURSAL NABIZADA, the Afghan MP killed in January 2023. | | For your radar | | EYE ON THE BALL — The confidence votes just keep on rolling. — Vote to watch #1: When the House clamors back to life on Tuesday, it will vote on the latest Conservative non-confidence motion just after QP — the one laden with PIERRE POILIEVRE’s four-point slogan (ax the tax™, et cetera). — Vote to watch #2: On Wednesday, the government will call a ways-and-means vote on the motion containing the controversial capital gains tax changes. That will count as a confidence vote, too. Government House Leader KARINA GOULD said during her Thursday House scheduling update that it was scheduled for earlier this week, but then pushed back after being blocked by Tory MPs. — Next op day: The Bloc gets its chance to press the government with a motion of its own on Tuesday. The text of the proposed Bloc motions are not yet on the notice paper, as of last check. With their big ultimatum of Oct. 29 for the government to pass two key Bloc bills or lose their confidence, it’s unlikely (but entirely possible) the party will push for a confidence vote of its own just yet. — In case you need it: On “The Decibel” pod, CAMPBELL CLARK explains how opposition days work, how the parties use them strategically and “what all of this means for the possibility of a snap election.” — Pollster prediction: “Minority governments fall 1 of 2 ways. By intention or by accident,” DARRELL BRICKER posted on X. “This Parliament has accident written all over it.” HEAT CRANKED UP — Speaker GREG FERGUS is having a heck of a time navigating the roiling House. A couple of headlines from the week: — Poilievre penalized for not withdrawing comments that set off QP fracas. — MP responds to claim that he made homophobic comment.
| | | | A message from Flip the Switch:   | | | | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
Up: The stakes over confidence votes at the end of next month thanks to a Bloc ultimatum, although the numbers still don’t suggest the government will fall anytime soon.
Down: The number of Conservatives available to appear on CTV, as the caucus has been ordered to snub the news network. | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | | 
From left to right: Shachi Kurl, Bruce Hartley, Adam Bolek and Playbook host Nick Taylor-Vaisey. | MOON SHOT — Space Canada gathered aerospace engineers, military brass and Canada's soon-to-be-moonbound astronaut this week for its annual confab. Your Playbook host moderated a panel on the politics and policy of space. Three highlights from our 45-minute chat onstage at the Canadian Museum of Nature: It feels like every issue can turn partisan in 30 seconds flat. Is space nonpartisan? SHACHI KURL, president of the Angus Reid Institute: Nothing, sadly, is nonpartisan anymore, and certainly not science. This is a partisan audience in that you are unapologetically pro-space. And that’s great. But it leads to a blind spot. I hear leaders and CEOs thinking that people consumed with their commute to work in the morning, or their inability to find a family physician, are just as passionately consumed with the mission you share. But they aren’t. It’s not that Canadians are against you, they’re just not thinking about you. First, communicate about yourselves. Tell your stories. Introduce your industry. Who are you? What do you do? Why should Canadian tax dollars be spent on it? What’s the split between private and public dollars spent? What’s the value proposition? Secondly, watch your six. Promoting the industry public or private shouldn’t be done from a place of virtue. We’ve seen what’s happened with carbon pricing — initially well embraced while politicians said “it was the right thing to do,” but they failed to make a better case for the value prop. Anything can be vulnerable in the same way. The polls suggest Conservatives are on their way back to power. How should people who care about space talk to them? ADAM BOLEK, president and CEO of the Canada Strong & Free Network: It is important to consider the impact and influence ELON MUSK has on the conservative movement. This man is becoming more and more influential in right-of-center politics — not just because of his wealth and the fact he owns X, but because he has publicly committed to freedom of speech, which conservatives feel is something under threat. I think you are going to find conservatives very skeptical of making the kinds of big bets that the Liberals have with subsidies for industry and certainly the space sector. Instead, I would look to find ways the federal government can deregulate and cut red tape. I think you will find an open mind on trying to get the government out of the way of innovation in this area. Is Canada part of a modern space race? BRUCE HARTLEY, senior partner at Prospectus Associates: We are in a space race: it's military, it's commercialization and it's nation-to-nation and regional tensions. Young Conservatives and young Liberals as well, who are in offices now and coming up through the system, and who are in school — they're going to be faced with all these challenges. It's incumbent upon us and this industry to make sure those people are given all the tools they need so we can have good public policy moving forward. | | MEDIA ROOM | | |  JD Vance and Tim Walz will debate Oct. 1. | Paul Sancya; Al Goldis/AP | — POLITICO's EMILIO CASALICCHIO reports that U.K. Prime Minister KEIR STARMER held a two-hour dinner with U.S. presidential candidate DONALD TRUMP last night, the first face-to-face meeting between the pair. — From POLITICO’S GRETA REICH: Everything you need to know about the upcoming Vance-Walz VP debate. — With an assist from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, BRYAN PASSIFIUME reports on the costs of a seven-person panel struck to advise on CBC modernization. — The Canadian Press reports on a bill from NDP MP LEAH GAZAN that seeks to criminalize residential school denialism. — “From Trudeau’s mouth, the faux earnestness of ‘we’ve got your back’ surely has to rank as the emptiest promise in the history of clichés,” JANICE KENNEDY, a lifelong Liberal and retired Citizen journo, writes in the Star. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to environmentalist and clean water advocate AUTUMN PELTIER (20!). Also celebrating today: Hockey Night in Canada’s ELLIOTTE FRIEDMAN, former Conservative Cabmin PETER MACKAY, Corner Brook MHA GERRY BYRNE, former New Brunswick Premier BERNARD LORD and Liberal MP CHARLES SOUSA.
HBD + 1 to EARL PROVOST, Ontario’s agent-general in Chicago. Saturday: HBD to former Conservative MP CANDICE BERGEN (60!), Cabmin STEVE MACKINNON, Sen. BRIAN FRANCIS, retired Sen. DENNIS DAWSON (75!) and Ambassador STÉPHANE DION. Sunday: HBD to WWF Canada President and CEO MEGAN LESLIE, former politician and diplomat KEVIN VICKERS, retired Sen. ART EGGLETON and former MP STELLA AMBLER. LISA MAYOR of CBC News also celebrates. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send deets. Noted: A moment of silence in the Senate for former Sen. and Cabmin FRANCIS FOX, who died at age 84. Spotted: At McGill's "Attention" conference on online safety in Toronto: TAYLOR OWEN, CAROL TODD, ANDRÉ PICARD, FRANCES HAUGEN, OWEN RIPLEY, VĚRA JOUROVÁ, EMILY LAIDLAW, LISA SHAPIRO, ELAMIN ABDELMAHMOUD, KARIM BARDEESY, KATE BEZANSON, BERNIE FARBER, ED GREENSPON, SARA GRIMES, JOHN MATHESON, ALEX MUNTER, ANDREW POTTER, RANA SARKAR and DAVID SKOK. In the Senate gallery this week: HELEN FORSEY, daughter of the late Sen. EUGENE FORSEY … ALEXIS GOOSDEEL of the European Union Drugs Agency and ALEXANDER CAUDARELLA of the Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction. Media mentions: CTV says the staff members who altered the Poilievre clip "no longer" work for its news team. MONICA ZUROWSKI has been named editor-in-chief of Postmedia Calgary. | | A message from Flip the Switch: Myth: Extended interswitching will drive investment into the United States.
Fact: In order to compete, railways will improve service and lower freight rates. That puts more dollars in the pockets of Canadian businesses, which can then be re-invested into their businesses and people. Meaning, extended interswitching will result in more investment in the Canadian economy.
In fact, CN and CPKC are already dominated by U.S. investors. Only 7% and 3% of CN and CPKC’s top 10 shareholders are Canadian owners, respectively.
Thank you for following along as we myth-busted the various claims from Canada’s two monopoly railways. As highlighted, extended interswitching promotes fair competition, reduces transportation costs, and increases access to Canadian goods. This is why we need a 30-month extension to the current pilot. To learn more about why extended interswitching is important, visit www.interswitching.ca. | | | | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from SUE ALLAN and KYLE DUGGAN: Climate advisers urge Canada to show ‘greater ambition.’
In other news for Pro readers: — Execs take a ‘sober tone’ at Climate Week as election looms. — Blinken eyes critical minerals victory in Africa. — Senate Republicans move to tweak carbon capture credit. — Scientists: Climate change doubled chances of European flood catastrophe. — Norway: Oil producers cannot be allowed to derail plastic treaty. | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | 9 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU travel to Spirit Garden in Thunder Bay, Ontario, to make an announcement on Indigenous-led stewardship initiatives. 9:30 a.m. Liberal MP PAM DAMOFF will drop by Formula Solutions Inc. to “celebrate support for Burlington’s aerospace and manufacturing sector.” 9 a.m. Liberal MP HEATH MACDONALD will be at the Eliyahu Wellness Centre in North Rustico, Prince Edward Island, with a tourism announcement at 10 a.m. local time. 11:30 a.m. Liberal MP JULIE DZEROWICZ will also share a tourism update — this one at The Theatre Centre in Toronto. 11:30 a.m. Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT will be at the Edmonton EXPO Centre at 9:30 a.m. local time with support for local tourism products. 12 p.m. PrairiesCan Minister DAN VANDAL will be at Portage Place mall at 11 a.m. local time to announce federal investments for the revitalization of downtown Winnipeg. | | | TRIVIA | | |
Thursday’s answer: “Like I assume 5,000 other people, I’m going to guess … JOHN BY,” reader MICHAEL POWELL told us.
Correct on both counts. Props to JENI ARMSTRONG, DENISE SIELE, JOHN DILLON, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, GUY SKIPWORTH, NANCI WAUGH, AMY CASTLE, ADAM SMITH, PIERRE JURY, MARC LEBLANC, KATIE FEENAN, BARRY J. MCLOUGHLIN, DARREN MAJOR, ALEX STEINHOUSE, JOANNA PLATER, J. ROLLAND VAIVE, CAROLYN MCCRIMMON, ROSS LECLAIR, RAY DEL BIANCO, LIZ THOMPSON, BOOTS TAYLOR-VAISEY, DAVE EPP, BARRIE FRIEL, PATRICK ST-JACQUES, MORGAN LARHANT, GORDON RANDALL, MARK AGNEW, CAMERON RYAN, PATRICK DION, WILL BULMER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MARCEL MARCOTTE, JORDAN CHOY, ANDREW COSTER, BOB PLAMONDON, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, JASON KERR, MARCUS MATTINSON, DAN MCCARTHY, ALEX BALLINGALL and BILL GARVIN. Friday’s question: On this date, who said: “When I was elected and put in this role, I was breaking a glass ceiling. What I didn't realize at the time was that I was breaking a glass ceiling that was going to fall on my head and leave a lot of shards of glass that I was going to have to crawl over.” Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.
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