| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | HELENE LATEST — “Helene weakens to a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph over Georgia,” by AP’s Kate Payne and Heather Hollingsworth: “The storm made landfall in northwestern Florida as a Category 4 storm as forecasters warned the enormous system could create a ‘nightmare’ storm surge and bring dangerous winds and rain across much of the southeastern U.S. There were at least three storm-related deaths.”
|  VP Kamala Harris is expected to talk tough on the border today in an attempt to dull Donald Trump's attacks on the issue. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP | TOUGH TALK — Later today, VP KAMALA HARRIS will make her first visit to the U.S.-Mexico border, traveling to the small town of Douglas, Arizona. What she’s expected to say while there is a reflection of the political reality she faces: tough border talk in an attempt to dull DONALD TRUMP’s attacks on the issue while laying blame for the status quo at his feet. What specifically will she say? Here’s the readout, according to our conversations with a senior Harris campaign aide:
- Harris will “argue that American sovereignty requires setting rules at the border and enforcing them.”
- She’ll call for more resources for border patrol agents to do their jobs.
- She’ll propose new detection machines for fentanyl at border entry ports.
- She’ll “reject the false choice between securing the border and creating an immigration system that is safe, orderly, and humane.”
- She’ll decry “Trump’s failures as president to address this challenge and his recent efforts to kill bipartisan solutions to it” — and say that “the American people deserve a president who cares more about border security than playing political games.”
While polls have consistently shown the border and immigration as one of Democrats’ biggest electoral vulnerabilities, the Harris camp feels like they’ve turned the corner, citing trends in two polls: (1) A CNN poll from July found Biden down 22 points against Trump on the immigration issue; this month, Harris is down by only 8 points. (2) A January poll from NBC News found Trump with a 35-point edge over Biden on securing the border; this month, he leads Harris by 14 points — a substantial shift, if still a major deficit for Dems. What’s behind that swing? “Harris may … benefit from some facts on the ground,” our colleague Myah Ward writes in her curtain raiser. “Border crossings are now as low as they were during Trump’s last month in office, averting media coverage of an overwhelmed southern border just weeks away from Election Day. After the border deal collapsed in February, Biden clamped down on asylum at the southern border in between ports of entry, which has led to a steep drop in illegal crossings — providing Harris with a datapoint to hammer on the trail.” Those trends are music to Harris world’s ears. “When [the] border starts to drop as the most salient issue, it's because voters are starting to become satisfied with what they're hearing from a campaign or an administration,” says MATT BARRETO, president of BSP Research, a polling firm that works with Harris’ campaign. “And it means that there's not quite as many alarm bells.” But now, Harris risks setting off alarm bells in the other direction. The immigration advocacy community is split, with some worried that there’s too much emphasis on enforcement and not enough on the legal pathways to immigration and citizenship. (Harris advisers push back, saying that she does talk about those pathways, and cite her interview with MSNBC’s STEPHANIE RUHLE and remarks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s Leadership Conference earlier this month.) “It's been hard to just see [the] hardening on the border and kind of laying it flat instead of the rich, dynamic place that it really is,” one veteran immigration advocate told Playbook yesterday. “A more robust conversation would be helpful and to just illuminate what the direction she's proposing. There's so much more to immigration than that one component.” “She's trying to be responsive to public opinion on it,” a former Biden administration aide who worked on immigration policy told Playbook. “But what I find a little confusing, honestly, is that she isn't really trying to even define herself away from Biden. And we know this is Biden's most unpopular issue, and we know most Americans don't understand his approach to it. So that's just adding to a vulnerability she already has.” One thing that strikes us about these criticisms of Harris is that even those advocates pushing for different rhetoric from Harris are doing so quietly, holding back most public criticisms of Harris on the issue. Many immigration advocates we spoke say the community knows that no matter what Harris’ policy ends up being, it will be miles better for them than the promised mass deportations of a second Trump presidency. So they’re biting their tongues so they can tussle with her on policy the second she walks behind the Resolute Desk. “I've yet to talk to anybody who has tried to argue with me that Harris and Trump would somehow be similar,” another veteran immigration advocate told Playbook. “She'll do things that some will be good; some won't be. But she's a politician, and he's the apocalypse.” WHAT’S ON McCONNELL’S MIND — Rachael sat down yesterday for a chat with Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who had one subject top of mind: the filibuster. She barely had a chance to sit down before the longtime GOP leader launched into a history lesson on the Senate’s rules reaching back decades. The soliloquy was prompted by Harris’ recent re-endorsement of scrapping the 60-vote threshold in order to pass legislation enshrining abortion rights nationally. McConnell warned Democrats that any erosion of the legislative filibuster would inevitably mean its total demise, and that might not redound to their benefit: “They never think about what might happen when the shoe is on the other foot.” It’s not an unexpected message coming from McConnell, but it comes at a notable moment — as he is preparing to leave the GOP leadership after two decades and as more Democrats warm up to the idea of a more majoritarian Senate. More on McConnell’s filibuster warning A few other nuggets from the sitdown:
- On his replacement: McConnell said he has no plans to endorse in the race to succeed him. To be fair, an endorsement could have gone both ways: While he retains significant influence in the Republican Conference, there’s a rising cadre of intraparty critics who would not see a McConnell nod as encouraging.
- On Ukraine: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has had no better Republican friend in Washington than McConnell, and as others in the GOP seethe over his visit this week to a Pennsylvania munitions plant with Democrats in tow, you’d suppose McConnell might speak up for the wartime leader. Not so: “I’m not going to get into that,” he said no fewer than three times when pressed on the controversy.
- On Springfield: Asked about the GOP presidential ticket’s attacks on the Haitian immigrants of Springfield, Ohio, McConnell endorsed the recent NYT op-ed from Ohio Gov. MIKE DeWINE pushing back on the heated rhetoric and defending the immigrant community. “He wrote a very moving piece,” McConnell said. “And I don’t have anything to add to that.”
Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Introducing Instagram Teen Accounts: a new experience for teens, guided by parents.
Starting in September, Instagram is launching Teen Accounts with built-in protections limiting who can contact teens and the content they can see. Plus, only parents can approve safety setting changes for teens under 16.
So parents can have more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.
Learn more. | | | | 
| THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: JAMES CARVILLE — The longtime Democratic strategist is the subject of a new documentary, “Winning is Everything, Stupid,” that premieres Oct. 5 on CNN. Ryan sat down with Carville for Playbook Deep Dive yesterday while he was in LA. They talked about his strong belief that “campaigns are not decided by editorial page writers” but by “salesmen and hucksters”; why he’s not so sure that the Harris-Trump contest will be a close race in the end; what he thinks Harris could learn from Trump; and why he has absolutely no remorse about saying the Democratic Party’s culture was dominated by what he calls “preachy females.” Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify HOW TRUMP WINS — Perhaps nowhere does the switch from Biden to Harris hurt Democrats more than in white, working-class, Catholic northeastern Pennsylvania, where he grew up. As Charles McElwee reports for POLITICO Magazine in a big feature from Scranton, Harris is a tough fit for the reddening region. SURVEY SAYS — Harris got a set of fairly good swing-state numbers yesterday: Bloomberg/Morning Consult find her leading by 2 to 7 points in every swing state except Georgia, where she and Trump are tied. Fox News has Harris ahead by 3 in Georgia, one of her best recent results there — but trailing by 3 in Arizona. And Harris leads by 6 in Minnesota in a new KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA poll.
| | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. What we’re watching … Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) says it’s put-up-or-shut-up time for the House Ethics Committee and their probe into allegations of underage sex and drug use. “It seems the fix is in,” Gaetz wrote to panel leaders yesterday, complaining of improper leaks, “uncomfortably nosey” questions and a “Soviet” approach to due process. He declared he will no longer voluntarily cooperate, so the ball is now in the panel’s court. Gaetz did respond to two key factual inquiries: He “unequivocally” denied having sex with anyone under age 18, while his comments on his drug use were not quite so unequivocal: “I have not used drugs which are illegal, absent some law allowing use in a jurisdiction of the United States.” More from Anthony Adragna At the White House Biden will leave the White House for a few hours in Scranton, Pennsylvania, before heading to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, in the afternoon. On the trail Harris will travel to Douglas, Arizona, for her border visit, before heading to San Francisco in the evening. Trump will be in Michigan, where he’ll speak in Walker at 2 p.m. and hold a town hall in Warren at 6 p.m.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY
|  NYC Mayor Eric Adams is due to appear for his arraignment at noon today. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | ADAMS FAMILY VALUES — As NYC reels from the federal indictment of ERIC ADAMS, the mayor is due to appear for his arraignment at noon today, though his lawyers have asked for a delay to next week, per the NYT. Adams nonetheless maintained his innocence yesterday, slamming the investigation and asking his constituents to hear out his defense. N.Y. Mag’s David Freedlander reports that Adams is doubling down, with no intention of leaving willingly. But the political and policy fallout has already begun. Suburban Democrats running in swing congressional seats quickly called for Adams to resign, eager to distance themselves from him, Timmy Facciola reports. House GOP Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) led the Republican charge in seeking to tie Adams to a “cult of corruption” in the New York Democratic Party writ large, Emily Ngo reports. (Fellow New York GOP Rep. CLAUDIA TENNEY may not have gotten the message, instead claiming baselessly on Fox News that a corrupt Justice Department had targeted Adams.) The most powerful New York Dems, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, wouldn’t yet go there on calling for Adams’ resignation, saying the criminal justice process should play out. The Biden administration, which has steered pretty clear of Adams for years, kept staying away yesterday, per Jonathan Lemire and Eli Stokols. On the policy front, NYC bureaucrats worried that the imbroglio could threaten some of their plans (like a big zoning plan), even as they kept working, Janaki Janaki Chadha, Madina Touré and Maya Kaufman report. Who’s next? If Adams goes, talk is already swirling about who could replace him as mayor in a special election or next year’s regularly scheduled campaign, Emily and Jason Beeferman report. There are five challengers already in the race. There’s public advocate JUMAANE WILLIAMS, who becomes acting mayor if Adams resigns or is ousted. And, yes, former New York Gov. ANDREW CUOMO is eyeing a comeback. New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL is digging into whether she could revive a rare power to remove Adams from office, Bill Mahoney and Nick Reisman report. 2024 WATCH HACK FALLOUT — Multiple Iranians are getting charged by the Justice Department over the alleged hack of the Trump campaign, with officials set to unveil the details today, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Josh Gerstein report. A grand jury handed down the indictment yesterday. Meanwhile, independent journalist KEN KLIPPENSTEIN became the first reporter to publish some of the hacked/leaked materials after multiple outlets, including POLITICO, hadn’t done so, NBC’s Kevin Collier reports. Klippenstein published the Trump campaign’s apparent dossier on Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) — and ELON MUSK’s X quickly blocked his account and those who shared the info. MOVING TO THE MIDDLE — Asked specifically whether Trump’s support for in vitro fertilization includes same-sex couples, his campaign told NBC’s Matt Lavietes that he backs “universal access.” SECURITY CONCERNS — “Secret Service staffing shortage prompts Trump campaign to move Wisconsin rally,” by CBS’ Olivia Rinaldi TRUMP CARDS
|  Panel of jurists questioned whether New York AG Tish James had gone too far in applying a consumer fraud law to the Trump Organization. | Bebeto Matthews, File/AP Photo | THE TRUMP TRIALS — Trump got some positive signals from a New York appeals court yesterday, as justices indicated that they had some concerns with the prosecution and judgment against him in the civil business fraud case, WSJ’s Corinne Ramey and Jacob Gershman report. The panel of jurists questioned whether state AG TISH JAMES had gone too far in applying a consumer fraud law to the Trump Organization, particularly around whether anyone had been harmed by the company’s fraudulent real estate valuations. And the whopping, nearly $500 million penalty came in for some raised eyebrows, too. Not every Trump argument found purchase, but the reception indicated parts of the judgment could be in trouble. In the biggest Trump prosecution — feds’ criminal case in D.C. for alleged 2020 election subversion — special counsel JACK SMITH’s office made a major filing yesterday, CNN’s Tierney Sneed and Katelyn Polantz report. But Judge TANYA CHUTKAN has yet to announce whether and when the evidence will be publicized. If so, the probe’s interview transcripts and notes arguing that Trump broke the law in trying to hold onto power after he lost the last election could be vaulted into the middle of this one. More top reads:
MEDIAWATCH BIG DEVELOPMENT — “Newsmax settles Smartmatic defamation suit over 2020 false election claims,” by Reuters’ Tom Hals: “Newsmax Media reached a confidential settlement of a lawsuit by Smartmatic, the voting machine maker that had alleged it was defamed by the news outlet's false claims that its machines were rigged to help steal the 2020 U.S. presidential election from Donald Trump, the companies said on Thursday. The agreement came on the eve of a four-week jury trial.”
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | MORE POLITICS 2025 DREAMING — “Mike Pence quietly lays the groundwork for a post-Trump future,” by Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett HOW THE BIG LIE SPREADS — Rep. TOM TIFFANY (R-Wis.) made a false accusation about barcodes on ballots in Madison, Wisconsin, this week, AP’s Scott Bauer reports. Even after the clerk clarified the situation, Tiffany kept posting about what he deemed “inconsistencies,” with his original X post reaching more than 2 million views. One state over, Michigan GOP Chair PETE HOEKSTRA claimed baselessly this week that Democrats could “steal some votes” in the Senate race, The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger and Hannah Mackay revealed. OFF THE MARK — North Carolina Lt. Gov. MARK ROBINSON’s top staffer — chief of staff/general counsel BRIAN LiVECCHI — is planning to step down amid Robinson’s scandals, CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski reports. DOWN BALLOT — “DNC will send funding to all state parties to support down-ballot races,” by Irie Sentner: “The nearly $2.5 million investment is the first time the national party has sent funding to every one of its state counterparts.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with Donald Trump today. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | ZELENSKYY IN WASHINGTON — Biden unveiled another $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine yesterday, per The Hill. Will that be all Zelenskyy gets out of his U.S. trip? If the Biden administration signs off on letting Ukraine strike deeper inside Russia with Western weapons, U.S. intelligence reports warn that “Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks,” NYT’s Adam Entous and Julian Barnes report. That, along with skepticism that the decision would give Ukraine a major boost, could make it harder for Zelenskyy to get the approval he’s seeking this week. Zelenskyy will meet with Trump today, the former president said, per Bloomberg. Asked whether Ukraine should cede territory to an invading Russia, Trump yesterday was noncommittal, though he said “we need peace.” Zelenskyy has had to reckon with a much cooler congressional reception, especially from Republicans. House GOP leaders have slammed Zelenskyy for a stop in Pennsylvania with Democrats. But Fox News’ Jen Griffin reports that some Republicans have broken from that criticism, noting the simple reality that Zelenskyy has also appeared with Republicans when he’s visited red states. Biden, McConnell and other Ukraine supporters continued to stand firm behind Kyiv in events yesterday. And upon meeting with Zelenskyy, Harris specifically called out American politicians whose Ukraine plans (she called them “proposals for surrender”) align with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s, per Bloomberg. It was a clear if implicit nod to Republicans like Vance. MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The U.S. has agreed to an $8.7 billion military aid package to Israel, the country’s defense ministry announced, per Reuters. Meanwhile at the U.N., Palestinian leader MAHMOUD ABBAS excoriated the U.S. for blocking U.N. resolutions calling for Israel to agree to a cease-fire, Mona Zhang reports. CONGRESS COMING IN NOVEMBER — “House Democrats likely to force action on measure formally reprimanding Clay Higgins,” by Nick Wu, Daniella Diaz and Olivia Beavers TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week,” guest-moderated by Laura Barrón-López: Peter Baker, Wendy Benjaminson, Adam Harris and Heidi Przybyla. TV TOMORROW — Scripps News’ “The Race – Weekend”: Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) … Herbie Ziskend … Daniel Lippman and Meredith Lee Hill. SUNDAY SO FAR … NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) … Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). Panel: Jeh Johnson, Kelly O’Donnell, Danielle Pletka and Julio Vaqueiro. ABC “This Week”: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.). Panel: Rachael Bade, Jonathan Martin, Susan Glasser and Vivian Salama. MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: second gentleman Doug Emhoff … Eric Holder. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont … Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) … Whit Ayres … Michael Meehan. Panel: Bob Cusack, Julie Mason, Tia Mitchell and Catherine Lucey. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) … Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). Panel: Francesca Chambers, Mollie Hemingway, Mario Parker and Kevin Walling. Sunday special: Scott Bakula. CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) … Larry Hogan … retired Gen. Stan McChrystal. CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Panel: Scott Jennings, Ashley Etienne, Erin Perrine and Karen Finney.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Steve Bannon penned a letter from a Danbury prison. Rosa DeLauro spoke the word “skibidi.” Steven Kramer was fined $6 million for his deepfake robocalls. George Helmy was inspired to get into politics by Frank Lautenberg. Sara Innamorato saved Kamala Harris from a spotted lanternfly. Harley Adsit and Sarah Geary’s podcast dives into “Crime in Congress.” IN MEMORIAM — William “Bill” Lucy, longtime secretary-treasurer of AFSCME, died at 90. Lucy was also co-founder and leader of the Coalition of Black Trade Unionists, a co-founder of the Free South Africa Movement and president of Public Services International. More from AFSCME OUT AND ABOUT — Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd hosted David Axelrod and Karl Rove for a fireside discussion on the state of the race yesterday at the Australian Embassy. SPOTTED: Japanese Ambassador Shigeo Yamada, Danish Ambassador Jesper Møller Sørensen, New Zealand Ambassador Rosemary Banks, Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer, Charles Rivkin, Steve Morrissey, Eric Fanning, Kitty Hamilton, Zjantelle Markel, Aaron Thompson, Clayton Walker, Eric Miller, Stephanie Glue, Claire and Jeff McMullen, and Charles Edel. — SPOTTED on Tuesday at a party for Meridith McGraw’s new book, “Trump In Exile” ($32), hosted at Lauren and John Legittino’s Manhattan home by Kaitlan Collins, Jen Maxfield and Lauren: Alex Marquardt, Donie O’Sullivan, Abby Phillip, Tara Palmeri, Hugo Lowell, Brian Stelter, Jessica Dean Katz, Abby Livingston, Gunjan Banerji, Bill Goldstein, T.W. Arrighi and Peggy Noonan. NEW FELLOWS — The University of Chicago’s Center for Effective Government announced its 2024 cohort of Democracy Fellows: Brenda Abdelall, Trevor Potter, Omar Noureldin, Amy Gardner and Donald Sherman. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Andy Volosky is now deputy director of platforms at the White House. He most recently was managing strategist for social media and texting at Middle Seat. WEEKEND WEDDING — Miles O’Brien, science correspondent for PBS, co-founder of Mobias Media and an aviation analyst for CNN, and Suzanne Tobias, co-founder and director of operations of Mobias Media, got married Sunday at the Wianno Club in Osterville, Massachusetts. They met in 1979 but reconnected more than a decade ago when she started working for his production company. They became a couple in 2015, a year after the two grew closer when an accident took his left arm. Pic by Daniel Hentz Photography … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) (4-0), Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) (7-0) and Ed Case (D-Hawaii) … Juleanna Glover … WaPo’s Tony Romm … Anne-Marie Slaughter of New America … BGR Public Relations’ Jeff Birnbaum … POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw, Steven Overly, Anne Mulkern, Nick Tedesco and Molly Fruits … Geoff Burgan … League of Conservation Voters’ Sara Chieffo … Marty Franks … Peebles Squire … Madison Group’s Marcus Sebastian Mason … Dan Raviv … Brendan Dunn of PhronesisDC … American Cleaning Institute’s Kristin DiNicolantonio … René Carbone Bardorf … ABC’s Matthew Vann … former Rep. Peter Kostmayer (D-Pa.) … Caitlyn Schneeweiss … Axios’ Cuneyt Dil … Zach Barnett of Sen. Roger Wicker’s (R-Miss.) office … Sam Raskin … Abby Curran Horrell … Alexa (Wertman) Brown … Laura Whitefield … CBS’ Ellee Watson … Curtis LeGeyt of the National Association of Broadcasters … Josh Mandel … Michael Pierce of Horizon Government Affairs … LPAC and Florida Women’s Freedom Coalition’s Allie Owen … Log Cabin Republicans’ Charles Moran Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the party affiliations of New York Rep. Marc Molinaro and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis. They are Republicans
| | | | A message from Instagram: Introducing Instagram Teen Accounts with automatic protections for teens.
Starting in September, Instagram is launching Teen Accounts with built-in protections limiting who can contact teens and the content they can see. Plus, only parents can approve safety setting changes for teens under 16.
This means parents can have more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.
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