And so it begins

Nov 26, 2024

View in browser

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Ari Hawkins and Mickey Djuric with Philippe J. Fournier

Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada

Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ The incoming president gets Ottawa’s attention.

→ Advice on dealing with D.C.

→ Nova Scotia goes to the polls.

DRIVING THE DAY

President-elect Donald Trump is seen in a MAGA hat.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump shared a plan for Canada on his first day in office. | Pool photo by Brandon Bell

FOUR MORE YEARS — Last night on Truth Social, President-elect DONALD TRUMP unveiled a first-day priority: 25 percent tariffs as part of an effort to crack down on migration and the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

Yes, tariffs on Canada. And Mexico.

“As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before,” Trump wrote.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders.”

— Trudeau on the line: Before long, the Prime Minister's Office let the press gallery know that JUSTIN TRUDEAU almost immediately got Trump on the phone to talk about the border.

Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND and Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC also released a statement. The chair and vice chair of the Canada-U.S. Cabinet committee insisted that border security is a priority for Canada.

— What next: Trump's post did not specify how he could impose the measure, although POLITICO’s ARI HAWKINS notes the incoming president could theoretically tap the so-called International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which grants a president sweeping authority to control economic transactions after declaring an emergency.

It’s a move that would immediately open Trump’s tariffs to a tranche of legal challenges.

“A 25 per cent tariff would be devastating to workers and jobs in both Canada and the U.S.,” Ontario Premier DOUG FORD said in response to Trump’s evening post. “We need a Team Canada approach and response — and we need it now.”

Earlier in the day, the premiers had been angling for an emergency meeting with Trudeau.

“Next year will be a #cdnecon recession,” economist TREVOR TOMBE predicted last night.

— That’s not all: In another post to his platform, Trump said China had failed to follow through on promises to institute the death penalty for traffickers of fentanyl: “Drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before.”

“Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs,” he said.

Those tariffs on China could be in addition to Trump's universal baseline tariff of up to 20 percent, as well as his 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports.

A spokesperson for the Trump transition team did not return requests for comment clarifying the total percentage of tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada.

— Trump admin on speed dial: Vice president-elect JD VANCE reinforced Trump's threat.

"It’s important for our friends and neighbors to not let poison into our country," Vance posted on X. "If they fail to meet this basic obligation they’re going to pay up."

A nation's eyes turn to Conservative MP JAMIL JIVANI, Yale law alum and close pal to Vance.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

STORM'S A BREWIN' — The contours of Trump 2.0 are taking shape. REGAN WATTS, the founder of advisory firm Fratton Park, sees alarm bells flashing.

We asked Watts: How ready is Canada for Trump 2.0?

Watts, a former senior adviser to Conservative Cabmins LAWRENCE CANNON and JIM FLAHERTY, offered lessons for a federal government that can't afford to fall behind.

Here's his take:

— First thoughts: "Canadian governments rarely nail big U.S. political shifts. They’re bad at reading the room and worse at predicting outcomes. Only BRIAN MULRONEY got it right in 1983-84 when he leaned in with former President RONALD REAGAN."

— Case in point: "Nobody in official Ottawa seems prepared for Trump and the GOP sweeping the House, Senate, and White House — a result anyone paying attention could see coming."

Key questions via Watts:

→ How many meetings have we had with Trump and his team since 2020? Has anyone stayed connected to KELLYANNE CONWAY, SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS or JARED KUSHNER? What about STEVE BANNON?

→ What have we done to stay engaged with the GOP’s leadership in Washington?

→ Fox News is the outlet of record for Republicans. Have Canadian leaders engaged with Fox, appearing for interviews with the likes of PETER DOOCY or JACQUI HEINRICH?

"Any lack of connection is a massive miss, because the GOP was always Trump’s party, and his influence isn’t going anywhere.

"The chattering classes in Ottawa and Chardonnay Charlatans at Global Affairs Canada more than likely banked on Trump not returning to power, which the rest of us in the real world saw as an inevitability."

— Canada’s starting position: "Behind the 8-ball."

— What Canada must do, pronto: "Invest in defense and security, including icebreakers, surveillance, response capabilities — get it done yesterday. Show the U.S. we’re serious about North American security, especially on the Arctic, borders and immigration. We need to get serious about and support those U.S. priorities.

"Taking this approach will improve Canada's starting point in the next round of free-trade talks."

— Let’s play some offense: "Trump is a dealmaker. Deals are about give and take. Canada needs to stop moralizing and approach NAFTA 3.0 with clear goals, ready to make bold moves. Incrementalism won’t cut it when protectionism is on the rise. Ambition will earn Trump's respect."

— Bottom line: "Less preening, more partnering."

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will chair the Cabinet meeting, attend QP and meet with Canadian Labour Congress President BEA BRUSKE.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend the Cabinet meeting.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released public itineraries.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will attend QP. Later in the afternoon, he’ll head to the National Arts Centre to participate in a Canadian Labour Congress town hall.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend a parliamentary seminar on the public health imperatives of nuclear disarmament and a book launch in the morning. In the afternoon she will attend Parliament followed by meetings with the Canadian Housing and Renewal Association and the Canadian Labour Congress.

In the provinces

Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston speaks to reporters following a televised debate in Halifax on Thursday, November 14, 2024.

Tim Houston fields media questions earlier in the Nova Scotia election campaign. | Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press

TREND-BUSTER — When incumbents were winning everywhere in mid-pandemic Canada, TIM HOUSTON was one of the first to trounce one. Now, as incumbents are underdogs all over the world, Houston is on the verge of not simply surviving — but winning bigger.

Today is election day in Nova Scotia. Houston is favored heavily in what's turned into a race for second place between the NDP's CLAUDIA CHENDER and the Liberals' ZACH CHURCHILL. 338Canada's PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER breaks down the numbers.

— Western trend in the Atlantic? If final polling proves accurate, Nova Scotia's electoral map might mirror those of many Western provinces: Conservatives dominating rural areas, the NDP sweeping urban districts, and barely a hint of Liberal red.

— Liberals in trouble: In 2021, the Nova Scotia Liberals narrowly lost power to the Progressive Conservatives, trailing by just 2 points in the popular vote.

The gap has widened dramatically. Not only are the Liberals far behind Houston. They risk being overtaken by the NDP.

— A rare consensus: Polling from Abacus Data, MQO Research, Narrative Research and Mainstreet Research all show commanding PC leads over the NDP ranging from 16-29 points. Only Cardinal Research, which conducted its poll earlier this month, placed the Liberals ahead of the NDP — but acknowledged the New Democrats are likely to surpass the Liberals in seat count.

— Blowout territory? The PCs have been projected to surpass the 28-seat majority threshold since the start of the campaign.

If they maintain their polling average of nearly 50 percent province-wide, they could win between 40 and 50 seats — potentially eclipsing JOHN SAVAGE’s 1993 Liberal landslide of 40 seats.

— Survival at stake: While the Liberals might salvage a few seats in the PC wave, a complete shutout is not out of the question.

— Back to the future: Former Liberal Cabmin SCOTT BRISON got the attention of Houston's PCs when he endorsed MIKE HAMM, the Liberal candidate in Kings South.

In a video posted to Instagram, Brison dropped a massive hint about his return to political life — though it's unclear when, where or in what capacity.

“I'm not in public life today. I'm not in elected office. But someday when I return to politics, I will want someone like Mike Hamm on my team and I hope you elect him to be on your team as a good MLA for Kings South,” the longtime federal pol said.

The PCs assume he's after Churchill's job. But keep watching the video.

→ Who said it better? "I support people who have the ambition to do something, not simply the ambition to be something," Brison said of Hamm.

That choice of words took us back to Nanaimo, British Columbia, in September when Liberal economic adviser MARK CARNEY had this to say to reporters: "I'm interested in helping our country to grow. I'm interested in doing something, not being something."

Do birds of a feather flock together? Time will tell.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

AU REVOIR — Independent MP PABLO RODRIGUEZ stood in the House Monday for one final time.

In a farewell speech, Rodriguez recounted growing up in Argentina, fleeing to Canada after his family’s home was bombed, and settling in Quebec. He spoke of his father, who taught him to always fight for the truth.

Rodriguez, who was first elected to the House in 2004, plans to enter the Quebec Liberal Party leadership race in the new year.

On Monday he thanked the PM, the Liberal caucus and colleagues from across the aisle.

— They thanked him back: Conservative MP GÉRARD DELTELL called him a “friend.” Bloc Québécois House Leader ALAIN THERRIEN said he’d learned “a lot” from Rodriguez — someone he could always have a beer with despite disagreements.

Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY and Liberal MP FAYÇAL EL-KHOURY recognized Rodriguez for his service. NDP House Leader PETER JULIAN paid tribute to a political career “that has lasted a number of decades without a single enemy.”

Talk of the town

"The Eh Team" celebrate their trivia win at The Met Monday evening.

"The Eh Team" celebrates its trivia win at The Met Monday evening.

A PERFECT SCORE — THE EH TEAM won Monday Night's Playbook Trivia showdown at the Métropolitain. MICHELE AUSTIN, JON WISEMAN, SAMIRA LEVESQUE, KATE DALGLEISH, KEVIN BOSCH and WALLY MCLEAN scored 30 out of 30.

It was a Playbook trivia first.

— The rest of the Top Five: BINDER BUILDERS (25), THIS DOESN'T GO FAR ENOUGH (24), LPC OF THE 80s (23), OUR MORE BEERS (23).

MEDIA ROOM

— BOB RAE, Canada’s envoy to the United Nations, is on “The Global Exchange” pod.

— POLITICO’s SAM SUTTON considers Trump’s pick for Treasury.

— On his Substack, IAN BRODIE all but dares PIERRE POILIEVRE to take a closer look at a municipal tax spat in the Pontiac region a stone's throw from Ottawa.

— Our colleagues in Europe report on CĂLIN GEORGESCU, the far-right TikTok star leading the Romanian election race.

— From CHANTAL BRAGANZA at The Walrus: Want to raise a kid in Canada? That’ll be C$293,000.

PROZONE

For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: Trudeau insists Canada is on a path to 2 percent.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Climate conferences are dying. How to save the world now?

— Trump win forces carbon removal developers to reconsider oil.

— What the ‘show me the money’ climate summit tells us about the new Trump era.

— What Trump’s Treasury pick means for clean energy tax credits.

— Auto industry asks Trump to keep EV tax credits.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to NDP MP CAROL HUGHES.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, chowing down on spicy chicken wings in a promo for “Hot Ones Québec” dropping Dec. 12.

Noted: The PM’s national security and intelligence adviser NATHALIE DROUIN has received her mandate letter. She’s tapped to lead a renewed national security strategy in 2025; engage with allies and international partners while exploring new partnerships; establish Canada’s intelligence priorities; and increase transparency.

Drouin will also be tasked with addressing recommendations that come out of the Foreign Interference Commission, and ones made in reports by special rapporteur on foreign interference DAVID JOHNSTON, the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians and the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency.

ON THE HILL

9 a.m. Procurement Ombud ALEXANDER JEGLIC and Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX are on the witness roster at the Senate finance committee.

9 a.m. Representatives from Nunatsiaq News, Inuit Broadcasting Corporation and Inuvialuit Communications Society will be at the Senate transport and communications committee as it considers local services provided by CBC/Radio-Canada. JEN GERSON of The Line is also on the roster.

9:30 a.m. JONATHAN MALLOY of Carleton University will be at the Senate rules and procedures committee to discuss the role of non-affiliated senators.

10 a.m. Chief TED WILLIAMS of the Chippewas of Rama First Nation will be at the Senate Indigenous peoples committee to discuss Bill S-268.

11 a.m. JENNIFER HEDICAN and JOHN HEDICAN will be at the House health committee to discuss Canada’s opioid epidemic and toxic drug supply. Their son Ryan died in April 2017 after smoking fentanyl-laced heroin.

11 a.m. The House government operations committee plans to discuss Indigenous procurement in its first hour.

11 a.m. SAMANTHA REUSCH of Apathy is Boring will be at the House procedure committee to discuss Bill C-65.

11 a.m. Conservative MP MELISSA LANTSMAN will be the first witness up at the House foreign affairs committee where Bill C-353 is on the agenda.

11 a.m. Official Languages Commissioner RAYMOND THÉBERGE will be at the House official languages committee to discuss minority-language education.

3:30 p.m. The House subcommittee on international human rights will hear from Human Rights Watch Canada, Tamil Rights Group and The Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation.

3:30 p.m. The House national defense committee continues its study of contaminated sites.

3:30 p.m. The House science and research committee studies research funding.

Behind closed doors: The House transportation, agriculture, finance and public safety committees will gather in camera.

TRIVIA

Monday’s answer: On Nov. 25 1969, JOHN LENNON returned his award of Member of the Order of the British Empire. The four Beatles were honored with the award in 1965.

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, JOHN MERRIMAN, PATRICK DION, RODDY MCFALL, RAY DEL BIANCO, BARRIE FRIEL, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, LISA KIRBIE, ALEXANDER LANDRY, JOHN MATHESON, MICHAEL FOLKERSON, DOUG RICE and GANGA WIGNARAJAH.

Today’s question: Who was the first Métis woman in Canadian history to become a senator? For bonus marks: How is this answer connected to this date in history?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Follow us on Twitter